Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

[dandridge 10]

I agree with most of Dat's prediction. I don't think Nene will miss half the year or shut it down in February, but I think he will be in and out of the line-up all year. And like, Dat, I also think Okafor will be out all year or at least the vast majority of it.

The bottom line is that I just don't think any improvement of Wall or Beal is going to be enough to overcome the loss of Okafor and the lack of depth in the frontcourt. I have been saying it all along, but the loss of Okafor, combined with a lack of improvement from Seraphin and Vesely, is really going to hurt this team defensively AND Offensively. Not only will the inability to rebound hurt our ability to fastbreak, but I also think Okafor will be missed in terms of offensive rebounds as well as setting good picks. Okafor is probably the best player on the team in terms of setting hard picks, which both Wall, Beal and Webster benefitted from last year. That will be sorely missed.

Ultimately, I think the preseason games so far are somewhat of a precursor to what we will see this year. The Wizards are not going to be as good as last year defensively with Okafor out and we will not improve enough on the offensive end (even if Wall and Beal develop) to account for that lapse. Right now, my prediction is 35 wins, but I might even adjust that downward more depending on how the rest of the preseason goes.

[Dat2U]

I think you missed a few key points of my post....

1. Nene misses more than half the year
2. Webster regresses to career norms
3. Ariza (our best perimeter defender) is traded for frontcourt help that probably doesn't help.

So not only is their a complete hole upfront at the PF & C positions, the SF position becomes an issue as well. Plus the lack of depth at guard doesn't help either.

I may be pessimistic, but wouldn't smart money be pessimistic too given recent franchise history? Why would anyone be naturally optimistic about anything concerning the Wizards? Look at my own history when it comes to recent predictions for this franchise, I think being pessimistic has served me well in terms of making accurate predictions.

I don't see why 1 and 2 make sense though. From all accounts Nene is healthier then last season and should play as many games as last season. I understand he could miss time...but why assume he'll miss more? I think the argument saying he'll miss and arguments saying he'll play less offset each other so I just assume somewhat the status quot of last season.

I also don't see why Webster regresses (barring injury). If you look at 3 of his last 4 seasons he's shot 37%+ from outside with a fairly good TS% (playing Wall has to help some, right?).

Number 3 I understand, I could see EG making a play for some POS bigman that doesn't help at all. So my only real concern is finding one big guy this season that can curtail the loss of Okafor. I don't want to assume he'll be out the whole season (cause the healing time simply shouldn't be that long) but I guess since we are the Wizards we are due for one "oh ****" every season.

At times you are right, there is no logical reason to be optimistic regarding the Wizards, but I just don't see a hypothetical season long loss of Okafor curtailing the team's ceiling THAT much.

Webster ended the season hurt and is coming off a career year in which he got paid. Why is it such a stretch to believe he return closer to career norms in terms of quality of play & availability?

Secondly, the loss of Okafor is a killer. Not because Okafor is some irreplaceable big man that's worth every penny he makes, it's because you're replacing Okafor with guys that were some of the worst players in the league. Seraphin was arguably the worst rotation big in all of the NBA last season. Vesely was just as bad. Al Harrington in limited minutes was even worse. I don't think that's something that you can overcome. Replacing reliability with outright incompetence is going to hurt big time.

[payitforward]

I think you missed a few key points of my post....

1. Nene misses more than half the year
2. Webster regresses to career norms
3. Ariza (our best perimeter defender) is traded for frontcourt help that probably doesn't help.

So not only is their a complete hole upfront at the PF & C positions, the SF position becomes an issue as well. Plus the lack of depth at guard doesn't help either.

I may be pessimistic, but wouldn't smart money be pessimistic too given recent franchise history? Why would anyone be naturally optimistic about anything concerning the Wizards? Look at my own history when it comes to recent predictions for this franchise, I think being pessimistic has served me well in terms of making accurate predictions.

I don't see why 1 and 2 make sense though. From all accounts Nene is healthier then last season and should play as many games as last season. I understand he could miss time...but why assume he'll miss more? I think the argument saying he'll miss and arguments saying he'll play less offset each other so I just assume somewhat the status quot of last season.

I also don't see why Webster regresses (barring injury). If you look at 3 of his last 4 seasons he's shot 37%+ from outside with a fairly good TS% (playing Wall has to help some, right?).

Number 3 I understand, I could see EG making a play for some POS bigman that doesn't help at all. So my only real concern is finding one big guy this season that can curtail the loss of Okafor. I don't want to assume he'll be out the whole season (cause the healing time simply shouldn't be that long) but I guess since we are the Wizards we are due for one "oh ****" every season.

At times you are right, there is no logical reason to be optimistic regarding the Wizards, but I just don't see a hypothetical season long loss of Okafor curtailing the team's ceiling THAT much.

1. Nene didn't play well last season. If he plays to his last season level, it doesn't much matter how many minutes he records or how many he misses.

2. Re: Webster -- regression to the mean is a norm. It's what usually happens moving from event to event. But I'm not sure it applies in this case. Injury, however, is another matter -- if a guy's been injured often in his career it certainly seems to make another injury more likely.

3. The loss of Okafor's 2000 minutes leave a hole at Center. Given who we have (and who we don't have!) to play those 2000 minutes you're dreaming if you think that doesn't hurt -- a lot.

This isn't some kind of curse on the Wizards. It's a bad bad bad Front Office.

[nuposse04]

1. Nene didn't play well last season. If he plays to his last season level, it doesn't much matter how many minutes he records or how many he misses.

2. Re: Webster -- regression to the mean is a norm. It's what usually happens moving from event to event. But I'm not sure it applies in this case. Injury, however, is another matter -- if a guy's been injured often in his career it certainly seems to make another injury more likely.

3. The loss of Okafor's 2000 minutes leave a hole at Center. Given who we have (and who we don't have!) to play those 2000 minutes you're dreaming if you think that doesn't hurt -- a lot.

This isn't some kind of curse on the Wizards. It's a bad bad bad Front Office.

1. No he didn't play well by his standards but he was still a starting quality big even though he was hurt. Considering he's healthier than he was last year, I'm not worried about his offensive output this season. What could be called into question is his defensive ability against bigger centers all season long.

2. Players get better. Webster is 26, soon to be 27. I don't think he'll get considerably better anymore but production wise when a player reaches their mid to late 20s, they tend to be who they are. For Webster that's a very offensively efficient SF. I don't think we can bank on him shooting 42% from 3 pt land too often, but expecting him to stay in the 38-39% 3pt range isn't a terrible drop off in my book. Now the injury thing is interesting. Of the 8 seasons in the NBA he's missed significant time 2 of those seasons in my book.

Rookies always get dinged up so he missed about 20 games as a rookie. 08 was lost. He still played 70% of the games in the lockout year and '11 wasn't great but he bounced back this past season. I wouldn't say he has an abhorrently bad healthy track record but I wouldn't say he's an ironman. I expect him to play in about 75-80%% of the games this season. I don't think that is unreasonable (barring freak injury).

3. Okafor does hurt...and I'm probably being a blind optimist here but I think at the very least Seraphin can return to his '11 form and suffice for however long. I think not having to compete and look over his shoulder will help Seraphin out, but I recognize the team's defensive, and ironically offensive potential is limited.

[queridiculo]

The scenario that's playing out right now is precisely why I really hated the Porter pick. Not because I don't like him as a player, but because I can't think of a realistic scenario that has us being able to address the teams front court issue going forward.

I stand by my 32 wins, I just don't see the Wizards being competitive with a part time center and no reliable options to back him up.

[W. Unseld]

nuposse04, credit for a valient effort on the positivity, but it's not looking pretty barring some player improvements that have yet to readily manifest in preseason games.

At least now I will have Wizards losses to occupy my mind in between Redskins losses.

[daSwami]

Even without Okafor, I'd be disappointed if we didn't make the playoffs.

Here are the teams that are playoff locks in the East: Miami, Indiana, Brooklyn, Chicago. (and, probably, New York).

There are bunch of "middle of the pack" teams, that will be scrambling for the last 3 slots (in order of probability): Atlanta, Milwaukee, Washington, Detroit, Cleveland, Toronto.

With a healthy Okafor, we've got an edge on most of those teams. If he's out (or limited) for more than half of the season, we're in trouble and we've got to hope that somebody steps up his defensive game big time (Booker, Vesely, Porter or Harrington).

Orlando, Boston, Charlotte and Philly all look to be playing for ping-pong balls.

[nuposse04]

nuposse04, credit for a valient effort on the positivity, but it's not looking pretty barring some player improvements that have yet to readily manifest in preseason games.

At least now I will have Wizards losses to occupy my mind in between Redskins losses.

I still contend there are reasons to expect analogous production from the previous players for aforementioned reasons, but I recognize there could be a considerable domino effect with the lack of Okafor. It is my hope (the audacity of such a thing, right? )that one of EG's bastard kids steps up for half of the season.

[The Consiglieri]

Seems like every year we are close to making the playoffs and then something happens and ruins it. Injuries are already setting us back.

I expect, and predict: 31 wins, a top 10 draft pick and Wittman + Grunfeld will be fired.

I don't think Ted would fire EG under those circumstances. As long as EG can use injuries as an excuse, he won't get fired.

I think the only way EG gets fired is if Porter is a bust. Two busts out of three top 6 picks would be unforgivable, even for Ted.

Well, we can say the '09 pick was a bust considering what was done with it. I have no idea what it takes for Leonsis to fire a GM. He never has thus far.

[Upper Decker]

nuposse04, credit for a valient effort on the positivity, but it's not looking pretty barring some player improvements that have yet to readily manifest in preseason games.

At least now I will have Wizards losses to occupy my mind in between Redskins losses.

I still contend there are reasons to expect analogous production from the previous players for aforementioned reasons, but I recognize there could be a considerable domino effect with the lack of Okafor. It is my hope (the audacity of such a thing, right? )that one of EG's bastard kids steps up for half of the season.

Definately a commendable attitude, however, not one that I share.

My ultimate fear is that the Wiz will start slow, which will further deter Okafor from returning quickly. The opening 2-3 weeks is really murder for Washington. They play @ Miami, @SA, @OKC, and @Dallas with Brooklyn sandwiched in between during the first 2 weeks of the season. A hot start doesn't seem to be on the horizon even with a healthy Okafor. If the team starts off slow, why would Okafor rush back if he's not fully healthy? Risk further injury and messing up his free agency for a crummy team? I dunno about that.

Right now I'm at 30 wins, but I still have two weeks to adjust my prediction.

[Ruzious]

I keep expecting Dat2U's overly pessimistic projections to be overly pessimistic, but they keep ending up to be correct.

<channeling the voice of Debbie Downer> Expect it to happen again.

People ask why follow the team if I'm so negative. Being a Wiz fan isn't by choice. For most of us die-hards, it's ingrained since we were little ruzrats.

[nuposse04]

nuposse04, credit for a valient effort on the positivity, but it's not looking pretty barring some player improvements that have yet to readily manifest in preseason games.

At least now I will have Wizards losses to occupy my mind in between Redskins losses.

I still contend there are reasons to expect analogous production from the previous players for aforementioned reasons, but I recognize there could be a considerable domino effect with the lack of Okafor. It is my hope (the audacity of such a thing, right? )that one of EG's bastard kids steps up for half of the season.

Definately a commendable attitude, however, not one that I share.

My ultimate fear is that the Wiz will start slow, which will further deter Okafor from returning quickly. The opening 2-3 weeks is really murder for Washington. They play @ Miami, @SA, @OKC, and @Dallas with Brooklyn sandwiched in between during the first 2 weeks of the season. A hot start doesn't seem to be on the horizon even with a healthy Okafor. If the team starts off slow, why would Okafor rush back if he's not fully healthy? Risk further injury and messing up his free agency for a crummy team? I dunno about that.

Right now I'm at 30 wins, but I still have two weeks to adjust my prediction.

I'm not a believer in Dallas, I find their mix to be kind of odd. OKC I also think is winnable without Westbrook and asking Lamb and PJ III to be significant contributors. Otherwise, I do think the 1st month is kind of a shot to the nuts. Okafor does have incentive to come back and help washington. He is in contract year, and probably the last shot at a significant multi year deal. I don't think he actually WANTS to miss time. Unless he is content with the money he has made.

[The Consiglieri]

I will add another comment: the Nene and Oka injury history underlines the complaints of those who hated or disliked the McGee trade and the cap killing quick fix save my own arse and save Leonsis money/face saving deal for Okariza. Some posters argued inexplicably in favor of the latter deal, or pulled the wool over their own eyes in reference to the risks of the former deal, and both have proven awful in the long term, just as the doubters had suggested. Nene wasn't bashed too hard because McGee had to be moved, the problem was, why move him for an obviously bad contract on an old player that was injury prone, it appeared to be a poor man's webber for Richmond deal, leaving a bad taste in many of our mouths. Now with Ariza looking like his normal self rather than his ideal season '12-'13 self, and Okafor going back to his traditional injury history that deal looks even worse than haters like me had argued at the time.

Hopefully they will serve as ammo along with the horrid '09 trade a potential all star for scraps stupidity move, and the '11 selection of Vesely over Leonard and over a trade up for Valunciunas/Kanter, along with the selection of Singleton over Faried, as a vast array of justifications for s canning the GM, can't fire an owner, you can fire the GM who came up with the repeatedly hair brained trades and draft selections that sabotaged the rebuild.

[DCZards]

Now with Ariza looking like his normal self rather than his ideal season '12-'13 self, and Okafor going back to his traditional injury history that deal looks even worse than haters like me had argued at the time.

Ariza is not playing well this preseason just like he didn't play well last preseason when he had what you refer to as his "ideal" regular season. And other than the 2005-06 and the 2011-12 seasons, Okafor has averaged close to 80 games a season during his 9 year career. You make it sound like the guy's been injured throughout his career.

I still like the Okafor-Ariza deal. Gave the team solid vet leadership and the best D the Zards have had in more than a decade. It also gave the Zards desperately needed rebounding. Maybe most importantly, the trade changed the team's culture from one led by Blatche, McGee, etc. to one led by respected professionals like Ariza, Okafor and Nene. It also took a lot of the leadership load off of JW, which freed him up to just go out and play.

[The Consiglieri]

II could see your point if either of those players were long term solutions and a part of the long view but neither were. They were seen as 1-1.5 year pieces. I think a team can make a deal like that if its a part of a long form process, but if its some short term caulking, it's a waste of assets. There are plenty of very good, to solid, to upside players that could have helped with chemistry. That would have made far more sense to me, and the chemistry was already in the process of being rewritten when Wall and Beal and the other pieces were added while dumb, dumber, dumbest, and Crawford escorted out.

[tontoz]

Getting rid of the McGee/Young/Blatche trio by itself was enough to change the culture. You could already see the change after the McGee trade.

There was no point in tying up so much money in Okafor/Ariza. Doing so bascially doomed them to mediocrity indefinitely unless management can pull a rabbit (or two or three) out of a hat.

[DCZards]

II could see your point if either of those players were long term solutions and a part of the long view but neither were. They were seen as 1-1.5 year pieces. I think a team can make a deal like that if its a part of a long form process, but if its some short term caulking, it's a waste of assets. There are plenty of very good, to solid, to upside players that could have helped with chemistry. That would have made far more sense to me, and the chemistry was already in the process of being rewritten when Wall and Beal and the other pieces were added while dumb, dumber, dumbest, and Crawford escorted out.

Everyone likes to talk about who "could" or "might" have signed with the Zards if they had not traded for Okafor/Ariza. Names like Ryan Anderson often get tossed around, but no one knows for sure if Anderson or any other young, upside player would have actually signed with the Zards if the team had pursued them instead of trading for Okafor/Ariza,

Consig, if you know some "solid, to upside players" who would have probably signed with the Zards if they had not traded for Okafor/Ariza then you need to name names. Fact is, the Zards chances of attacting that kind of player is much better now that Okafor and Ariza have helped to change the culture of this team both on the court and in the lockerroom.

And, yes, Wall and Beal have certainly helped to improve team chemistry, but the Zards needed more than those two inexperienced youngins' to develop a winning team and attitude--not to mention a top five defense.

[tontoz]

II could see your point if either of those players were long term solutions and a part of the long view but neither were. They were seen as 1-1.5 year pieces. I think a team can make a deal like that if its a part of a long form process, but if its some short term caulking, it's a waste of assets. There are plenty of very good, to solid, to upside players that could have helped with chemistry. That would have made far more sense to me, and the chemistry was already in the process of being rewritten when Wall and Beal and the other pieces were added while dumb, dumber, dumbest, and Crawford escorted out.

Everyone likes to talk about who "could" or "might" have signed with the Zards as a free agent if they had not traded for Okafor/Ariza. Names often get tossed around--like Ryan Anderson, but no one knows for sure if these players would have actually signed with the Zards if the team had pursued them instead of trading for Okafor/Ariza, And, yes, Wall and Beal have certainly helped to improve team chemistry, but the Zards needed more than those two inexperienced youngins' to develop a winning team and attitude--not to mention a top five defense.

Consig, if you know some "solid, to upside players" who would have probably ended up with the Zards if they had not traded for Okafor/Ariza then you need name names. Fact is, the Zards chances of attacting that kind of player is much better now that Okafor and Ariza have helped to change the culture of this team both on the court and in the lockerroom.

We do know for a fact that we couldn't sign anyone for more than the MLE no matter what. and signing free agents isn't the only way to use cap space. We could have made a trade for a player that we might not know was available by using our capspace.

[Nivek]

I was in favor of changing the culture. I thought there were other ways to do it besides swapping for older guys who were decent, but not going to improve. Excising players who weren't working hard and focusing on the job, and replacing them with mature players who were serious, hard-working, enthusiastic, etc. would have accomplished the culture change AND given the team the benefit of potential growth.

And to DCZards point -- I (and several other posters) named names at the time when the Wizards made the OkAriza trade. Not much point in re-re-re-digging out the list at this point.

[DCZards]

And to DCZards point -- I (and several other posters) named names at the time when the Wizards made the OkAriza trade. Not much point in re-re-re-digging out the list at this point.

I remember that list, Nivek. And, quite frankly, it was pretty weak.