2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt.2)

[dygaction]

Best odds in Vegas

Very basketball, wow

I am sorry - I thought this was a discussion about the NBA MVP race - who is doing well, and who is favored to win the award. Some people approach the discussion by citing statistics (like who has bee the best scorer in the clutch - which I would certainly think is appropriate in a discussion about which player is “most valuable”).

Others may want to discuss who, right now, is leading in the exciting “race” for the award! In this context, bringing up references of what NBA observers - such as Vegas bookmakers (who are FOLLOWING THE MONEY of how the public at large views the race) may be a good gauge of how the MVP race is shaping up right now.

You may be someone who believes that statistics such as RAPM or RAPTOR are important - and I am sure that is a factor.

I tend to look at Vegas to get a real-time gauge of “market sentiment”. It is like looking at a stock (from my background as a portfolio manager)…you can pour over a company’s financial statements, do ratio analysis, look at historical benchmarks, and base your decision on who has the “best” numbers.

If you have done that over the past 10 years, you have trailed the market badly. BADLY.

Me? I look at the charts. The technical patterns. Is volume (the amount of shares being traded) confirming price? Is the stock going higher on volume?

That is why Vegas works for me. It is the accumulation of all market information - including the takes from sharp bookmakers putting TENS OF MILLIONS of dollars on the line when they set odds.

And right now, Embiid is the favorite in Vegas.

Have fun with RAPTOR and EPM and whatever other stats you use. They do tell a story. But I will stick with the money, thanks.

Funny how you just started sticking with your money VERY recently.

[Cubbies2120]

Very basketball, wow

I am sorry - I thought this was a discussion about the NBA MVP race - who is doing well, and who is favored to win the award. Some people approach the discussion by citing statistics (like who has bee the best scorer in the clutch - which I would certainly think is appropriate in a discussion about which player is “most valuable”).

Others may want to discuss who, right now, is leading in the exciting “race” for the award! In this context, bringing up references of what NBA observers - such as Vegas bookmakers (who are FOLLOWING THE MONEY of how the public at large views the race) may be a good gauge of how the MVP race is shaping up right now.

You may be someone who believes that statistics such as RAPM or RAPTOR are important - and I am sure that is a factor.

I tend to look at Vegas to get a real-time gauge of “market sentiment”. It is like looking at a stock (from my background as a portfolio manager)…you can pour over a company’s financial statements, do ratio analysis, look at historical benchmarks, and base your decision on who has the “best” numbers.

If you have done that over the past 10 years, you have trailed the market badly. BADLY.

Me? I look at the charts. The technical patterns. Is volume (the amount of shares being traded) confirming price? Is the stock going higher on volume?

That is why Vegas works for me. It is the accumulation of all market information - including the takes from sharp bookmakers putting TENS OF MILLIONS of dollars on the line when they set odds.

And right now, Embiid is the favorite in Vegas.

Have fun with RAPTOR and EPM and whatever other stats you use. They do tell a story. But I will stick with the money, thanks.

Funny how you just started sticking with your money VERY recently.

Nah he definitely thought Embiid was 15th favorite to win the award back a couple months ago when he was at like +5000, cause the public had him there, so he must have thought there were ~15 more deserving players.

Im sure if we go back two months we will find him posting about the money back then too, right?

[Statlanta]

Partially due to voters fatigue but that’s how it works. Jokic, Giannis, and Curry are all past MVPs so he is the one to promote.

It is interesting that the narrative seems to be switching to Embiid being that they're the 5 seed in a conference where the 1 seed is on pace for 53 wins and he has missed >20% of the season. It's not as if he has a dominant statistical case over the other candidates or that he's coming off some dominant playoff run where he showed he was the best player in the game and we should feel like he deserves the award. The guy is about to turn 28 and hasn't even made a conference Finals yet.

I think he should absolutely be in the conversation, but I see zero argument why he should be the favorite. They only have 3 more wins than the Nuggets, and are 7 behind the Warriors (both teams who have been ravaged by injury).

Voter fatigue + all 3 of the candidates are humble guys. They wouldn't mind if they didn't get the award.

[_NoMas]

From NBA.com:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/clutch-traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1

Embiid is averaging 5.2 points per "clutch" situation, a full point ahead of Jokic's 4.2 points. Ja is 3rd at 4.1 points.

Questions?

Yeah, my question is to you:

What do YOU personally consider a higher pressure, clutch situation:

Your team is up by 5 points with 5 minutes left
or
Your team is down 2-3 points with less than 2 minutes left
or
Your team is down or tied with 10 seconds left in the game, it's the final possession

What, in your opinion, is a more important scenario to play well in? How would you rank those 3 scenarios above in terms of clutch factor?

Because Embiid plays well in scenarios with 5 minutes left, but once it gets down to that <2 minutes and still a 1 possession game, his play falls off a cliff. Maybe it's the pressure getting to him?

What the hell is this word salad? Huh?

I say Embiid is the highest”clutch” scorer in the NBA. You ask, “where did that come from?” I put a hyperlink to THE NBA’S WEBSITE and their “clutch” statistics - which shows Embiid A FULL POINT (which, for a stat like this, is MASSIVE) ahead of Jokic. Your response?

A freaking word salad.

You do you, bro. Bye.

You really had no answer to his very clear questions so decided to dodge the question. Nice tactics, bro…

[brettski]

Demar Derozan with his 6 consecutive super efficient 35+ Point game leading to a win with a 40 piece, 16/24 FG 8/8 FT and 7 assists.

Derozan should be in the conversation of a top 3 MVP candidate.

MVP isn't awarded for 6 good games.

[PurpleTrees]

Demar Derozan with his 6 consecutive super efficient 35+ Point game leading to a win with a 40 piece, 16/24 FG 8/8 FT and 7 assists.

Derozan should be in the conversation of a top 3 MVP candidate.

MVP isn't awarded for 6 good games.

Read on Twitter

[HoopsterJones]

Demar Derozan with his 6 consecutive super efficient 35+ Point game leading to a win with a 40 piece, 16/24 FG 8/8 FT and 7 assists.

Derozan should be in the conversation of a top 3 MVP candidate.

MVP isn't awarded for 6 good games.

He’s been playing at a MVP level all season long.

[bebopdeluxe]

I am sorry - I thought this was a discussion about the NBA MVP race - who is doing well, and who is favored to win the award. Some people approach the discussion by citing statistics (like who has bee the best scorer in the clutch - which I would certainly think is appropriate in a discussion about which player is “most valuable”).

Others may want to discuss who, right now, is leading in the exciting “race” for the award! In this context, bringing up references of what NBA observers - such as Vegas bookmakers (who are FOLLOWING THE MONEY of how the public at large views the race) may be a good gauge of how the MVP race is shaping up right now.

You may be someone who believes that statistics such as RAPM or RAPTOR are important - and I am sure that is a factor.

I tend to look at Vegas to get a real-time gauge of “market sentiment”. It is like looking at a stock (from my background as a portfolio manager)…you can pour over a company’s financial statements, do ratio analysis, look at historical benchmarks, and base your decision on who has the “best” numbers.

If you have done that over the past 10 years, you have trailed the market badly. BADLY.

Me? I look at the charts. The technical patterns. Is volume (the amount of shares being traded) confirming price? Is the stock going higher on volume?

That is why Vegas works for me. It is the accumulation of all market information - including the takes from sharp bookmakers putting TENS OF MILLIONS of dollars on the line when they set odds.

And right now, Embiid is the favorite in Vegas.

Have fun with RAPTOR and EPM and whatever other stats you use. They do tell a story. But I will stick with the money, thanks.

Funny how you just started sticking with your money VERY recently.

Nah he definitely thought Embiid was 15th favorite to win the award back a couple months ago when he was at like +5000, cause the public had him there, so he must have thought there were ~15 more deserving players.

Im sure if we go back two months we will find him posting about the money back then too, right?

Honestly, IDGAF all that much. I care about the team. Two months ago, I was just focused on the Sixers winning game and finding a deal for Simmons.

[Cubbies2120]

Yeah, my question is to you:

What do YOU personally consider a higher pressure, clutch situation:

Your team is up by 5 points with 5 minutes left
or
Your team is down 2-3 points with less than 2 minutes left
or
Your team is down or tied with 10 seconds left in the game, it's the final possession

What, in your opinion, is a more important scenario to play well in? How would you rank those 3 scenarios above in terms of clutch factor?

Because Embiid plays well in scenarios with 5 minutes left, but once it gets down to that <2 minutes and still a 1 possession game, his play falls off a cliff. Maybe it's the pressure getting to him?

What the hell is this word salad? Huh?

I say Embiid is the highest”clutch” scorer in the NBA. You ask, “where did that come from?” I put a hyperlink to THE NBA’S WEBSITE and their “clutch” statistics - which shows Embiid A FULL POINT (which, for a stat like this, is MASSIVE) ahead of Jokic. Your response?

A freaking word salad.

You do you, bro. Bye.

You really had no answer to his very clear questions so decided to dodge the question. Nice tactics, bro…

Yep, he even asked "Any questions?" and then proceeded to dodge them

[Hussien Fatal]

Demar has entered the conversation for sure but he’s still behind Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, Curry and Paul, he’s in the same tier as Ja.

[The Explorer]

Read on Twitter

[chitownsports4ever]

Demar has entered the conversation for sure but he’s still behind Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, Curry and Paul, he’s in the same tier as Ja.

Barring some injury or collapse

Embiid - Hes the front runner as hes finally seemed to put it all together and stay reasonably healthy as well.
Paul - If the Suns keep it up he will steal it in a similar fashion to Nash
Demar - If the Bulls finish 1 or 2 in the east he will have a punchers chance

dont underestimate the writers giving it to Demar or Cp3 as a counter to all of the ridiculous three point chucking the league has devolved into. They are putting on midrange master classes this year

I dont see anyone else seriously in the convo

Steph, Joker, Giannis been there done that and the writers will pick someone else as the narrative for those three just is not there nationally this year although their play is as great as its always been.

Ja' s team went on a ridiculous run even when he was out so I would say hes a year away from being seriously considered

[eminence]

It's pretty much down to Jokic/Curry for me barring them going down to injury. Giannis/Embiid/CP3/DeMar/Tatum competing for votes, but not guys I think are strong contenders to win it.

[Clocian]

Demar Derozan with his 6 consecutive super efficient 35+ Point game leading to a win with a 40 piece, 16/24 FG 8/8 FT and 7 assists.

Derozan should be in the conversation of a top 3 MVP candidate.

MVP isn't awarded for 6 good games.

Thanks for telling me you haven't been watching the Bulls/Derozan...or just looking at stats for that matter

[Dutchball97]

Demar Derozan with his 6 consecutive super efficient 35+ Point game leading to a win with a 40 piece, 16/24 FG 8/8 FT and 7 assists.

Derozan should be in the conversation of a top 3 MVP candidate.

MVP isn't awarded for 6 good games.

Read on Twitter

Are we really going to rely on a stat that has Patty Mills as equally valuable to Embiid? A stat that has Wesley Person at the most valuable player in the league in three seasons?

[Cubbies2120]

Demar Derozan with his 6 consecutive super efficient 35+ Point game leading to a win with a 40 piece, 16/24 FG 8/8 FT and 7 assists.

Derozan should be in the conversation of a top 3 MVP candidate.

MVP isn't awarded for 6 good games.

Thanks for telling me you haven't been watching the Bulls/Derozan...or just looking at stats for that matter

So which of Jokic, Embiid or Giannis has Derozan been more valuable than?

If the guy said top 5 candidate, he'd have a leg to stand on. But top 3? You're kicking one of them out...

[HoopsterJones]

MVP isn't awarded for 6 good games.

Thanks for telling me you haven't been watching the Bulls/Derozan...or just looking at stats for that matter

So which of Jokic, Embiid or Giannis has Derozan been more valuable than?

If the guy said top 5 candidate, he'd have a leg to stand on. But top 3? You're kicking one of them out...

I get that. But the MVP award doesn’t necessarily equate to the best player in the NBA award. Jokic, Embiid, and Giannis statistically are better than Demar and are more complete players than him too.

But Demar has been logging heavy minutes to keep the Bulls near the top of the EC with a litany of injured teammates, facing double teams, and still being highly productive and efficient in scoring. He’s been fairly durable and has only missed 4 games so far due to Covid and 1 game to rest. Embiid has missed 12 games, Giannis has missed 11 games, Jokic has missed 6 games. Demar has been extremely valuable for the Bulls and would be maybe a .500 team or worse without him (mostly due to injuries).

I don’t think he’ll win the MVP award, but thinking that he may finish 3rd isn’t far fetched.

[Hello Brooklyn]

Momentum seems to have really moved towards Embiid.

If the Sixers are a top 3 seed I think he basically gets it.

Nuggets'Bucks are not good enough and media likes giving it to someone new.

[feyki]

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/cn5jiv/oc_what_if_the_nba_mvp_award_was_decided_only_by/

This looks fair, any thought on this?

[GSWFan1994]

1. Giannis
2. Jokic
3. Embiid

Too bad Giannis has no media-pushed narrative for like 2 seasons now.

But I'd be totally fine with any of these 3 players winning it. Fantastic, all-time seasons by all.