Alex Len and his future

[ATTL]

17/11 since all star break, on 43% shooting... Huge positives with some negatives. I was hoping we could sign him on a deal less than Tyson's for a few years to make sure he deserves a bigger deal.

That shooting percentage is horrible for a big.

Anyone know where a shot chart is for him?

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2015-2016/player/1586/alex-len/shotchart/

Doesn't seem accurate since it has his fg% at 38%

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[bwgood77]

That shooting percentage is horrible for a big.

Anyone know where a shot chart is for him?

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2015-2016/player/1586/alex-len/shotchart/

Doesn't seem accurate since it has his fg% at 38%

Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

Well based on that it's pretty clear where he SHOULDN'T be shooting from. The left short corner or between there and the elbow.

[saintEscaton]

Anyone know where a shot chart is for him?

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2015-2016/player/1586/alex-len/shotchart/

Doesn't seem accurate since it has his fg% at 38%

Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

Well based on that it's pretty clear where he SHOULDN'T be shooting from. The left short corner or between there and the elbow.

Majority of his field goal attempts(nearly half) still come from the restricted area where he's at 60%, anything outside of three feet and he's shooting less than 35%, so much for that feathery touch. I think Len is who is he is offensively at this point, nothing to write home about. Its more important for him to reduce his foul rate while going back to being an anchoring rim protector/helpside defender who can consistently alter shots in the paint. He will have his nights were he gets those putbacks, dribble penetration garbage buckets and a occasional poster dunk , only reason he's on a double double streak is the sheer volume of touches touches Watson is forcefeeding him. His midrange faceup game isn't reliable enough to be his bread n' butter and is too mechanical/uncoordinated with his back to the basket on the low block where he is easily stripped.

[daisytank]

Nice game today no?

[WeekapaugGroove]

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2015-2016/player/1586/alex-len/shotchart/

Doesn't seem accurate since it has his fg% at 38%

Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

Well based on that it's pretty clear where he SHOULDN'T be shooting from. The left short corner or between there and the elbow.

Majority of his field goal attempts(nearly half) still come from the restricted area where he's at 60%, anything outside of three feet and he's shooting less than 35%, so much for that feathery touch. I think Len is who is he is offensively at this point, nothing to write home about. Its more important for him to reduce his foul rate while going back to being an anchoring rim protector/helpside defender who can consistently alter shots in the paint. He will have his nights were he gets those putbacks, dribble penetration garbage buckets and a occasional poster dunk , only reason he's on a double double streak is the sheer volume of touches touches Watson is forcefeeding him. His midrange faceup game isn't reliable enough to be his bread n' butter and is too mechanical/uncoordinated with his back to the basket on the low block where he is easily stripped.

His foul rate has dropped each year and for me is the least of my worries. Pretty much all young bigs have foul issues and most end up getting better with experience. It takes guys a while to understand what they can get away with and a lot of the fouls are caused by getting out of position so as they learn where to be they will naturally foul less. Refs also let the vets get away with a little more. Now it is a bit of a balancing act to stay aggressive but not found out when you go from playing 15-18 minutes a night to playing 30+. When you play backup minutes you can try to block everything since foul trouble isn't an issue. When your counted on for more minutes you have to pick your spots on defence more.

I don't think it's fair to say he "is what he is" offensively. I don't see him ever dominating offensively but at 22 he certainly can add some move to his post game.

I like Len but my biggest concern is I don't know if he has a natural feel for the game. He seems to have to think about what he's doing instead of just instinctively doing it. Hopefully that gets better with reps but IMO some of that is a natural thing that you either have or you don't.

[Damkac]

Len will be good. He is still very young and centers takes longer to develop. No way "he is what he is".

[Mulhollanddrive]

It's the stretch shooting fallacy. Morris best season for points and effeciency was when he shot the most % of shots at the rim. Same with Len, the more they both shoot outside 3 feet, the worse their % get.

They do need the ability to hit that shot, but their first and second option should be to get to the rim, and then if they can't look for other options.

3 years ago one of Hornacek's first statements was that players who think they shoot jumpers well from FT range, but only hit 35%, will not be taking them anymore (paraphrasing).

[Twuan89]

19pts, 16rebs, 6asts, 2blks vs Grizzlies.

[NavLDO]

Well based on that it's pretty clear where he SHOULDN'T be shooting from. The left short corner or between there and the elbow.

Majority of his field goal attempts(nearly half) still come from the restricted area where he's at 60%, anything outside of three feet and he's shooting less than 35%, so much for that feathery touch. I think Len is who is he is offensively at this point, nothing to write home about. Its more important for him to reduce his foul rate while going back to being an anchoring rim protector/helpside defender who can consistently alter shots in the paint. He will have his nights were he gets those putbacks, dribble penetration garbage buckets and a occasional poster dunk , only reason he's on a double double streak is the sheer volume of touches touches Watson is forcefeeding him. His midrange faceup game isn't reliable enough to be his bread n' butter and is too mechanical/uncoordinated with his back to the basket on the low block where he is easily stripped.

His foul rate has dropped each year and for me is the least of my worries. Pretty much all young bigs have foul issues and most end up getting better with experience. It takes guys a while to understand what they can get away with and a lot of the fouls are caused by getting out of position so as they learn where to be they will naturally foul less. Refs also let the vets get away with a little more. Now it is a bit of a balancing act to stay aggressive but not found out when you go from playing 15-18 minutes a night to playing 30+. When you play backup minutes you can try to block everything since foul trouble isn't an issue. When your counted on for more minutes you have to pick your spots on defence more.

I don't think it's fair to say he "is what he is" offensively. I don't see him ever dominating offensively but at 22 he certainly can add some move to his post game.

I like Len but my biggest concern is I don't know if he has a natural feel for the game. He seems to have to think about what he's doing instead of just instinctively doing it. Hopefully that gets better with reps but IMO some of that is a natural thing that you either have or you don't.

Great points, Weekapaug!!

And to add...how does a coach 'force feed' Rebounds, exactly? That's just a foolish statement. The only reason Gobert gets his points is due to (insert reason here, any will do).

No, it has nothing to do with force feeding anything. Len is getting double doubles thanks to finally getting starting minutes, JUST like Gobert. Gobert is averaging fewer points AND rebounds per36. And Len has proven in his past several weeks that given minutes, he can be, and is, every bit as productive as Gobert or Noel. Difference is, Gobert is purely a 5, whereas Len has been asked to learn the 4 as well, hence, his lower shooting %.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2016&p1=lenal01&y2=2016&p2=noelne01&y3=2016&p3=goberru01&p4=&p5=&p6=

So, Len is finally getting minutes, and the haters are now scrambling for excuses for WHY he's playing so well. It has NOTHING to do with, ohhhhh, IDK, maybe the fact that Len is actually IN the same tier, stratosphere, whatever you want to call it, as Gobert and Noel?

[dremill24]

Great points, Weekapaug!!

And to add...how does a coach 'force feed' Rebounds, exactly? That's just a foolish statement. The only reason Gobert gets his points is due to (insert reason here, any will do).

No, it has nothing to do with force feeding anything. Len is getting double doubles thanks to finally getting starting minutes, JUST like Gobert. Gobert is averaging fewer points AND rebounds per36. And Len has proven in his past several weeks that given minutes, he can be, and is, every bit as productive as Gobert or Len. Difference is, Gobert is purely a 5, whereas Len has been asked to learn the 4 as well, hence, his lower shooting %.

You don't forcefeed rebounds..but you certainly can with points (the other part of a dbl-dbl), which I think the point the OP was trying to make.

I think that comparison you have almost makes a case for Gilbert lol. Len have have higher pts and rebs per36, but Gobert wins rebs per 100pos. And blks..turnovers, fouls, all on much more efficient shooting. Robert is also far superior in BPM and VORP. And none of those stats even talk about Gobert's real value, which is on the defensive end.

None of this is to say Len sucks and Gobert rocks, not what I'm saying, just reacting to those particular points.

[saintEscaton]

Great points, Weekapaug!!

And to add...how does a coach 'force feed' Rebounds, exactly? That's just a foolish statement. The only reason Gobert gets his points is due to (insert reason here, any will do).

No, it has nothing to do with force feeding anything. Len is getting double doubles thanks to finally getting starting minutes, JUST like Gobert. Gobert is averaging fewer points AND rebounds per36. And Len has proven in his past several weeks that given minutes, he can be, and is, every bit as productive as Gobert or Len. Difference is, Gobert is purely a 5, whereas Len has been asked to learn the 4 as well, hence, his lower shooting %.

You don't forcefeed rebounds..but you certainly can with points (the other part of a dbl-dbl), which I think the point the OP was trying to make.

I think that comparison you have almost makes a case for Gilbert lol. Len have have higher pts and rebs per36, but Gobert wins rebs per 100pos. And blks..turnovers, fouls, all on much more efficient shooting. Robert is also far superior in BPM and VORP. And none of those stats even talk about Gobert's real value, which is on the defensive end.

None of this is to say Len sucks and Gobert rocks, not what I'm saying, just reacting to those particular points.

Like it or not nearly every APBRmetric favors Gobert, per 36 is not pace adjusted, but agreed Len is finally getting enough starter quality minutes that its not a misleading rose tinted extrapolation. Utah plays the slowest most methodical brand of basketball in the league, with only 93 possessions per game. Len takes 6 more field goals per 100 possessions than Gobert yet only averages 3 points more than him with a lower ORtg. I'll be fair and disregard DRtg/defensive win shares for Len because we are terribad on the other end as as team so he has suffered as a result. Len probably has more two-way upside, but doesn't particularly excel in any one thing and will be a well rounded jack of all trades master of none

[bwgood77]

Great points, Weekapaug!!

And to add...how does a coach 'force feed' Rebounds, exactly? That's just a foolish statement. The only reason Gobert gets his points is due to (insert reason here, any will do).

No, it has nothing to do with force feeding anything. Len is getting double doubles thanks to finally getting starting minutes, JUST like Gobert. Gobert is averaging fewer points AND rebounds per36. And Len has proven in his past several weeks that given minutes, he can be, and is, every bit as productive as Gobert or Len. Difference is, Gobert is purely a 5, whereas Len has been asked to learn the 4 as well, hence, his lower shooting %.

You don't forcefeed rebounds..but you certainly can with points (the other part of a dbl-dbl), which I think the point the OP was trying to make.

I think that comparison you have almost makes a case for Gilbert lol. Len have have higher pts and rebs per36, but Gobert wins rebs per 100pos. And blks..turnovers, fouls, all on much more efficient shooting. Robert is also far superior in BPM and VORP. And none of those stats even talk about Gobert's real value, which is on the defensive end.

None of this is to say Len sucks and Gobert rocks, not what I'm saying, just reacting to those particular points.

Like it or not nearly every APBRmetric favors Gobert, per 36 is not pace adjusted, but agreed Len is finally getting enough starter quality minutes that its not a misleading rose tinted extrapolation. Utah plays the slowest most methodical brand of basketball in the league, with only 93 possessions per game. Len takes 6 more field goals per 100 possessions than Gobert yet only averages 3 points more than him with a lower ORtg. I'll be fair and disregard DRtg/defensive win shares for Len because we are terribad on the other end as as team so he has suffered as a result

I've never really chimed in on this argument, though I have looked at the numbers and it is clear Gobert and Noel have better numbers by most metrics, but I've never been down on Len or wished we had taken Noel instead (no one knew Gobert was going to do what he has done) and I wouldn't put a limit on what Len can accomplish. He is flourishing in ways I didn't expect. I was surprised with the 6 assists the other night.

I also think Noel mostly played with such terrible players over the last two years, that, by default, his numbers will look inflated. Contrary to that, sometimes playing with another good big (as Len has shown playing with Tyson), that you can just really play off of each other well, and create a serious mismatch when an opposing 4 tries to go inside, resulting in a blocked shot. Now of course, playing two bigs can hurt too, particularly when a team goes small and can shoot from the outside at the 4.

The lineup we've played recently particularly matches up well with Memphis (even had they had Gasol) because they have limited spacing and play more inside. Orlando is not a good shooting team either.

I think playing our two bigs will hurt us more when we play teams that have really good outside 3 pt shooting and spread the floor well.

Unfortunately, Minnesota is if not THE worst, among the worst 3 pt shooting teams in the league, so playing two bigs against them in our two remaining games against them could result in two wins for us, allowing them to out tank us.

[NavLDO]

Great points, Weekapaug!!

And to add...how does a coach 'force feed' Rebounds, exactly? That's just a foolish statement. The only reason Gobert gets his points is due to (insert reason here, any will do).

No, it has nothing to do with force feeding anything. Len is getting double doubles thanks to finally getting starting minutes, JUST like Gobert. Gobert is averaging fewer points AND rebounds per36. And Len has proven in his past several weeks that given minutes, he can be, and is, every bit as productive as Gobert or Noel. Difference is, Gobert is purely a 5, whereas Len has been asked to learn the 4 as well, hence, his lower shooting %.

You don't forcefeed rebounds..but you certainly can with points (the other part of a dbl-dbl), which I think the point the OP was trying to make.

I think that comparison you have almost makes a case for Gilbert lol. Len have have higher pts and rebs per36, but Gobert wins rebs per 100pos. And blks..turnovers, fouls, all on much more efficient shooting. Robert is also far superior in BPM and VORP. And none of those stats even talk about Gobert's real value, which is on the defensive end.

None of this is to say Len sucks and Gobert rocks, not what I'm saying, just reacting to those particular points.

But what this doesn't show is how Len is, when he is given consistent minutes, so in that sense, it's almost comparing apples to oranges. Then take into account Len's expanded role, and his versatility--points that can't be 'measured' with stats and metrics--and it's difficult to make a reasoned assessment. I only linked the comparison to show the difference in minutes and points and TRB.

Gobert is what he is; Len is evolving into a much more versatile asset. But even still, when Len gets 'starter' minutes (25+), which during this season, has only been 20 games, and considering he's gotten 13 dbl-dbls in those, he's much better when given those minutes. So items like VORP and BPM do not capture those games specifically. IDK if those would improve or not, I'm just saying we don't know.

Plus, Len is often criticized for injuries, when Gobert's played the same number of games since being in, yet the Len 'haters', of course, don't point that out, either.

I'm just stating that if you are going to compare two players, and say that one is nowhere as good as the other, when they are different players, in different systems, being developed in different ways, well, that's not really a fair assessment, since Gobert isn't being asked to play the 4 this season like Len is, and OBTW, doing famously in his development.

What does Len's VORP/BPM look like over the last 8 games with starter minutes over the last month? IDK, but I'd venture to say they are likely a lot closer than the ret of the season. When healthy, Gobert starts and averages 33 MPG. Len? Not so much, until recently, of course.

[MathiasPW]

Season stats between them is not really fair, is what Navldo says in that huge text, FYI.

Great point. Actually, great, rich discussion. I learned a lot from it.

[jcsunsfan]

Great points, Weekapaug!!

And to add...how does a coach 'force feed' Rebounds, exactly? That's just a foolish statement. The only reason Gobert gets his points is due to (insert reason here, any will do).

No, it has nothing to do with force feeding anything. Len is getting double doubles thanks to finally getting starting minutes, JUST like Gobert. Gobert is averaging fewer points AND rebounds per36. And Len has proven in his past several weeks that given minutes, he can be, and is, every bit as productive as Gobert or Noel. Difference is, Gobert is purely a 5, whereas Len has been asked to learn the 4 as well, hence, his lower shooting %.

You don't forcefeed rebounds..but you certainly can with points (the other part of a dbl-dbl), which I think the point the OP was trying to make.

I think that comparison you have almost makes a case for Gilbert lol. Len have have higher pts and rebs per36, but Gobert wins rebs per 100pos. And blks..turnovers, fouls, all on much more efficient shooting. Robert is also far superior in BPM and VORP. And none of those stats even talk about Gobert's real value, which is on the defensive end.

None of this is to say Len sucks and Gobert rocks, not what I'm saying, just reacting to those particular points.

But what this doesn't show is how Len is, when he is given consistent minutes, so in that sense, it's almost comparing apples to oranges. Then take into account Len's expanded role, and his versatility--points that can't be 'measured' with stats and metrics--and it's difficult to make a reasoned assessment. I only linked the comparison to show the difference in minutes and points and TRB.

Gobert is what he is; Len is evolving into a much more versatile asset. But even still, when Len gets 'starter' minutes (25+), which during this season, has only been 20 games, and considering he's gotten 13 dbl-dbls in those, he's much better when given those minutes. So items like VORP and BPM do not capture those games specifically. IDK if those would improve or not, I'm just saying we don't know.

Plus, Len is often criticized for injuries, when Gobert's played the same number of games since being in, yet the Len 'haters', of course, don't point that out, either.

I'm just stating that if you are going to compare two players, and say that one is nowhere as good as the other, when they are different players, in different systems, being developed in different ways, well, that's not really a fair assessment, since Gobert isn't being asked to play the 4 this season like Len is, and OBTW, doing famously in his development.

What does Len's VORP/BPM look like over the last 8 games with starter minutes over the last month? IDK, but I'd venture to say they are likely a lot closer than the ret of the season. When healthy, Gobert starts and averages 33 MPG. Len? Not so much, until recently, of course.

Arent comparisons a bit skewed right now since Len is playing pf and taking alot of jump shots? I think its fascinating to see Len's rebounding numbers skyrocket once he got more minutes and was included more in the offense. I suppose the psychology would be that being more involved in one aspect of the game gets a player more involved in all of it.

[dremill24]

I'm as excited about his recent play as anyone (well, maybe not as much as the fanboy over here), but 18ppg on 41% shooting (last 7 gms) from a post player isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. There's a lot of guys in the league that could do that if you give them the touches and the green light. Is he playing better than before? Sure, and I'm happy for him. But I think jumping to him being a legitimate primary offensive option and all star level C is a bit premature.

Here's my worry with Len..he has two potentially elite skills in the NBA if he develops accordingly: rebounding and rim protection. His rebounding I'm not worried about. But I feel like he's so worried about foul trouble, since he's now the '#1 option,' that his defense is suffering. And I'm not sure I agree with the philosophy of compromising the development of a potentially game-changing skill (rim protection) in order to focus on something (scoring) that looks like it will solid but unspectacular at best.

I'm ok with it for the rest of the season I guess, as they really don't have any offensive weapons anyway, I just worry about the long term ramifications if this is how his development is going to go.

[jcsunsfan]

I'm as excited about his recent play as anyone (well, maybe not as much as the fanboy over here), but 18ppg on 41% shooting (last 7 gms) from a post player isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. There's a lot of guys in the league that could do that if you give them the touches and the green light. Is he playing better than before? Sure, and I'm happy for him. But I think jumping to him being a legitimate primary offensive option and all star level C is a bit premature.

Here's my worry with Len..he has two potentially elite skills in the NBA if he develops accordingly: rebounding and rim protection. His rebounding I'm not worried about. But I feel like he's so worried about foul trouble, since he's now the '#1 option,' that his defense is suffering. And I'm not sure I agree with the philosophy of compromising the development of a potentially game-changing skill (rim protection) in order to focus on something (scoring) that looks like it will solid but unspectacular at best.

I'm ok with it for the rest of the season I guess, as they really don't have any offensive weapons anyway, I just worry about the long term ramifications if this is how his development is going to go.

Not sure why those have to be mutually exclusive. His rebounding has improved since his offense has improved. His game will evolve as a whole, not a mutually exclusive parts.


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[dremill24]

I'm as excited about his recent play as anyone (well, maybe not as much as the fanboy over here), but 18ppg on 41% shooting (last 7 gms) from a post player isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. There's a lot of guys in the league that could do that if you give them the touches and the green light. Is he playing better than before? Sure, and I'm happy for him. But I think jumping to him being a legitimate primary offensive option and all star level C is a bit premature.

Here's my worry with Len..he has two potentially elite skills in the NBA if he develops accordingly: rebounding and rim protection. His rebounding I'm not worried about. But I feel like he's so worried about foul trouble, since he's now the '#1 option,' that his defense is suffering. And I'm not sure I agree with the philosophy of compromising the development of a potentially game-changing skill (rim protection) in order to focus on something (scoring) that looks like it will solid but unspectacular at best.

I'm ok with it for the rest of the season I guess, as they really don't have any offensive weapons anyway, I just worry about the long term ramifications if this is how his development is going to go.

Not sure why those have to be mutually exclusive. His rebounding has improved since his offense has improved. His game will evolve as a whole, not a mutually exclusive parts.


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They don't have to be..but my point was that they are at the moment.

[LukasBMW]

If he stays healthy, Len has the tools to dominate. He's very mobile and quick for someone his size.

He's finally getting touches and he's benefited greatly from increased ball movement. He's playing with more confidence and seems to have responded better to Watson. I still wish he would be a bit more aggressive. A roids cycle would do him well. I'm only half joking.

It will be interesting to see if his numbers drop when Knightmare comes back and starts hogging the ball for half the shot clock in an attempt to cross over some teams backup point guard only to fall down and lose the ball.

[GMATCallahan]

Like it or not nearly every APBRmetric favors Gobert, per 36 is not pace adjusted, but agreed Len is finally getting enough starter quality minutes that its not a misleading rose tinted extrapolation. Utah plays the slowest most methodical brand of basketball in the league, with only 93 possessions per game. Len takes 6 more field goals per 100 possessions than Gobert yet only averages 3 points more than him with a lower ORtg. I'll be fair and disregard DRtg/defensive win shares for Len because we are terribad on the other end as as team so he has suffered as a result. Len probably has more two-way upside, but doesn't particularly excel in any one thing and will be a well rounded jack of all trades master of none

Pace-based metrics are often misleading, however, because they falsely presume linearity in transferring from a team pace factor to individual performance. When the pace slows in basketball, the dynamic changes—often in favor of leading offensive players, because they are able to dominate the ball and milk or manipulate the possessions more readily at a slow pace. Thus Chris Paul posted the best offensive numbers of his career, and some of the best ever by a point guard, while playing at an extremely slow pace with the Hornets several years ago. Thus Tony Parker posted his highest scoring average when San Antonio's pace bottomed out around the same time. And thus Magic Johnson's numbers did not suffer as the Lakers' pace slowed later in his career. Yes, Magic's team was toting fewer possessions, but his ability to dominate the possessions increased. Thus, at a minimum, the greater ability to control possessions at a slower pace canceled out the loss in the volume of possessions, because the pace-inflated higher volume had reduced control. (Translation: there are a lot of ironies and inversions at play, meaning that PER is more or less garbage.)

There are many other examples, and Len obviously is not in that class of offensive player, but we do not know how exactly pace affects his statistics. A faster pace could give him more opportunities to score based on a greater number of possessions, but it could also give him fewer opportunities because a faster pace tends to play more into the hands of guards and wing players, with a big man often left behind. (Even then, though, a star guard or wing player will not necessarily benefit from a faster pace—and may instead suffer, statistically—because the ball is pushed up and around the court more quickly, reducing the opportunities for any one or two players to dominate as the offense functions more spontaneously and democratically rather than programmatically.) The bottom line is that there are a lot of nuances that cannot be adequately gauged in a spreadsheet-type of formula, and when such an attempt is made, the results are often screwy—for instance, PER suggesting that Terrell Brandon was a better point guard in 1996 than Magic Johnson in 1986. There may be a way to empirically gauge how pace affects Len's numbers, but it would have to come from extensive charting based on visual observation or filtering through a huge data sample, as opposed to the dubious assumptions of a simplistic formula.

Regardless, your conclusion is well-stated: Len probably possesses greater two-way upside than Gobert, but he is less likely to excel on one side of the floor. (Len is, however, flashing elite potential as a rebounder.) Gobert features a lesser range of skills, but he is so dominant on defense right now that his value is probably higher at the moment.