Don't Be Hurtin' Lin - The Jeremy Lin Thread 2

[Vae Victus]

I think if Lin's shot was going in more often he wouldnt be as reckless with the passing as he'll start looking for his shot more. Since he cant shoot a ball in the ocean mode he's forcing some high risk passes when he really shouldn't. Man having an excellent PnR big REALLY opens up his floor game, if they Hornets can nab a big like Ed Davis it'd be a godsend for Lin, as well as getting a rim protector, although a not that tall and skynny as hell one (was a Laker team charity dinner last season and Davis is barely 6'9 and a beanpole).

ALso i see him trying to do the probe thing way too much, he needs to commit to the drive more and if it's not there THEN back it out or drive all the way under and through the bucket. Getting annoyed seeing him dribble in place and waiting for something to happen after a PnR, he's getting stripped way too often in that situation.

[cw3k]

His minutes are fine, he's missing some shots now. He'll make some and get in a good shooting groove. That's what he does.

I just heard PFV say Lin was playing Jeremy ball. It's frantic, high-risk, high-reward. And it is the hope that the good outweighs the bad. That's about right. Good, bad and ugly all from one player.

I'm not really a fan of this style if he's not under control. The coaches really hate it when he's out of control and causing TOs. He's been getting minutes the past 2 games (partly due to PJ out) so he has to show that he belongs in this system and earn the confidence of his teammates and coaches. He played alright tonight (not great) and was a nice part of the W.

If coach accepts high-risk, high-reward, then Lin will play. I agree he was just alright tonight, but he had the 9 rebounds and coach likes that. His shot will come back, he's in a pretty bad slump lately. Don't know about PJ, I think Lin will get 25-28 minutes when all is said and done. Closer to the higher number probably as he'll have some big games. When Lin takes 13 shots, he usually scores 20 or more points.

The problem I have been seeing in the last few games is IF he is not the ball handler, he tends to camp on the corner, the right corner to be exact. Which IMHO is a big problem. He should be cutting to get himself open.

[MasterIchiro]

I'm feeling more hopeful we can re-sign him cheaply as a backup. If there is a market for him as a starter it is a small one. I could see a team like the Nets overpaying him.

Lin is turnover prone and inefficient. You shouldn't start nor log big minutes if you are making big mistakes. He's far more deadly vs. 2nd units.

I hope he stays because he's a huge upgrade over Roberts. He puts pressure on defenses even if he makes alot of mistakes. He makes them work with his inside, outside game.

[bws94]

I'm feeling more hopeful we can re-sign him cheaply as a backup. If there is a market for him as a starter it is a small one. I could see a team like the Nets overpaying him.

Lin is turnover prone and inefficient. You shouldn't start nor log big minutes if you are making big mistakes. He's far more deadly vs. 2nd units.

I hope he stays because he's a huge upgrade over Roberts. He puts pressure on defenses even if he makes alot of mistakes. He makes them work with his inside, outside game.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by "inefficient"? Thanks.

I like Lin as a 6th man, not just backup.

[MasterIchiro]

I'm feeling more hopeful we can re-sign him cheaply as a backup. If there is a market for him as a starter it is a small one. I could see a team like the Nets overpaying him.

Lin is turnover prone and inefficient. You shouldn't start nor log big minutes if you are making big mistakes. He's far more deadly vs. 2nd units.

I hope he stays because he's a huge upgrade over Roberts. He puts pressure on defenses even if he makes alot of mistakes. He makes them work with his inside, outside game.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by "inefficient"? Thanks.

I like Lin as a 6th man, not just backup.

His FG%, 3 pt% and turnovers.

[bws94]

I'm feeling more hopeful we can re-sign him cheaply as a backup. If there is a market for him as a starter it is a small one. I could see a team like the Nets overpaying him.

Lin is turnover prone and inefficient. You shouldn't start nor log big minutes if you are making big mistakes. He's far more deadly vs. 2nd units.

I hope he stays because he's a huge upgrade over Roberts. He puts pressure on defenses even if he makes alot of mistakes. He makes them work with his inside, outside game.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by "inefficient"? Thanks.

I like Lin as a 6th man, not just backup.

His FG%, 3 pt% and turnovers.

Thanks. His 3 pt% will go up, he's streaky as will his FG%. TOs sometimes are high, sometimes average. I'd like to see him run the offense smoother in terms of not getting into clock shot last-second shots and passes. He has a different way of facilitating than a lot of PGs, sort of waits for conditions before going into motion.

[spaceballer]

I'm feeling more hopeful we can re-sign him cheaply as a backup. If there is a market for him as a starter it is a small one. I could see a team like the Nets overpaying him.

Lin is turnover prone and inefficient. You shouldn't start nor log big minutes if you are making big mistakes. He's far more deadly vs. 2nd units.

I hope he stays because he's a huge upgrade over Roberts. He puts pressure on defenses even if he makes alot of mistakes. He makes them work with his inside, outside game.

If he can't get a starter role, which is certainly possible, I think he'll look for a team where he can be a sixth man like he was off the bench in Houston with close to 30 minutes a game, racking up a triple double off the bench like he did there and closing games. I don't think he'll stay to be the backup as the 8th or 9th man off the bench with 15-21 minutes and not closing games like happened in a few games this year.

[bws94]

I'm feeling more hopeful we can re-sign him cheaply as a backup. If there is a market for him as a starter it is a small one. I could see a team like the Nets overpaying him.

Lin is turnover prone and inefficient. You shouldn't start nor log big minutes if you are making big mistakes. He's far more deadly vs. 2nd units.

I hope he stays because he's a huge upgrade over Roberts. He puts pressure on defenses even if he makes alot of mistakes. He makes them work with his inside, outside game.

If he can't get a starter role, which is certainly possible, I think he'll look for a team where he can be a sixth man like he was off the bench in Houston with close to 30 minutes a game, racking up a triple double off the bench like he did there and closing games. I don't think he'll stay to be the backup as the 8th or 9th man off the bench with 15-21 minutes and not closing games like happened in a few games this year.

He's 6th man the last 2 games and I think it is possible going forward. 28/29 minutes is close to 30. He closes close games. He's more than a backup 8th or 9th man on this team.

[yoeddy007]

Lin will place priority on stability and chemistry ahead of money or any promise of starting if there are signs of mistrust. I see him returning to Charlotte next season unless D'Antoni gets a job somewhere and tries to recruit him.


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[RealHusky]

I'm feeling more hopeful we can re-sign him cheaply as a backup. If there is a market for him as a starter it is a small one. I could see a team like the Nets overpaying him.

Lin is turnover prone and inefficient. You shouldn't start nor log big minutes if you are making big mistakes. He's far more deadly vs. 2nd units.

I hope he stays because he's a huge upgrade over Roberts. He puts pressure on defenses even if he makes alot of mistakes. He makes them work with his inside, outside game.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by "inefficient"? Thanks.

I like Lin as a 6th man, not just backup.

His FG%, 3 pt% and turnovers.

You are looking at just last few games. Agreed he made some risky passes. However, the pressure he put on the D is real. Hornets have no good P&R big man really hurt his overall game. However, Hornets is dreaming if you think Lin will sign for cheap next year. He can start over quite a few starting PG now in the league including Kemba. His FG% is usually in the mid 40% and his 3 pt% is usually close to high 30% closer to 40%. He simply need the ball in his hand to initiate the offense which he has not been allowed to do with Kemba as PG and sometimes Batum. Lin's turnovers last couple of games is not great so I hope he will correct that. Lin should look for a starting role and if not definitely a 6th man type of role playing closer to 30 Mpg.

[Liver_Pooty]

Lol.

[13th Man]

Why are we arguing about his worth next year? A lot of things can change between now and end of season so it's baseless projection based on small sample size. Let's just focus on what he can do the for the team in the immediate future.

[fatlever]

For those that believe Lin should leave the Hornets to find a starting job or a place where he can play 30 mpg. Would you be so kind as to provide a list of teams where you believe Lin would currently start and/or play 30+ mpg?

[Roy Tarpley]

The last two games, Lin has come in the 1st/3rd quarter around the 2 minute mark and then played the entire 2nd/4th quarter, which provides him about 14 minutes a half or 28 minutes total. No complaints here. Lin has looked relaxed and confident, though his 3PT shot has been way off.

What I think goes unappreciated is how much Lin pushes the pace. We've seen a couple of his long passes leading to easy layups on fastbreaks, lots of dribble drive penetration, and more easy baskets.

At the same time, we've also seen some of his chronic flaws, including ill-advised drives with no one to pass to (leading to turnovers) and sometimes overhelping on defense to the detriment of not covering his own man. His 3PT shot should come back to him so I wouldn't call this a chronic issue. As a whole, I can tolerate the turnovers if he continues to be aggressive and gets the entire team in the aggressive frame of mind.

I can see Lin coming back if he continues to get 28 minutes and plays the 6th man. But I could also see him moving somewhere else if he is offered the starting nod -- not out of the realm of possibility when you have teams like the Sixers starting TJ McConnell or if contenders have injuries (for example, Mo Williams starting while Kyrie recovers).

[HornetJail]

Why are we arguing about his worth next year? A lot of things can change between now and end of season so it's baseless projection based on small sample size. Let's just focus on what he can do the for the team in the immediate future.

That's like saying playoff predictions prior to the season are baseless. It's a general idea- it's not supposed to be engraved in stone and be referred to until the end of time.

--

I think if Lin performs how I expect him to in a sixth/seventh man role, playing 20-25 minutes per game behind and alongside Kemba (let's say per 36 averages of 15/6, 3 TOs, and a solid 55 TS%, all right around his career averages), he'll be able to grab a $6M-8M contract next summer from a number of teams looking for a reliable backup that can start in a pinch. This pretty much puts Lin in the 25-30 ranking among all NBA point guards, so he'd be one of the elite backups the league has to offer.

If he exceeds expectations as a backup combo guard that plays 15mpg without Kemba and 15mpg with Kemba, plays better than expected in both roles, there's probably a team out there that shells out $10M a year for his services and gives him a starting job.

If he flops in the backup role (i.e. continues to shoot "Bad Kemba" percentages, has a worse AST/TO ratio, just doesn't appear to do that much good), he's probably looking at a similar situation as this past summer, where he's trying to find a place where he can succeed and bring up his value.

The good news for Lin is that the season doesn't end today. As he learns his teammates' tendencies, hopefully his efficiency and consistency will improve, because he's been all over the place. He's currently stuck between "worse than expected" and "as expected", and I think we can expect him to get into the "as expected" tier. The production is there, but the efficiency is not. For the amount of playmaking he does, 3TO/36min is unacceptable, as is the 28% 3-point shooting, but I think over the course of the season, those will normalize.

[HornetJail]

For those that believe Lin should leave the Hornets to find a starting job or a place where he can play 30 mpg. Would you be so kind as to provide a list of teams where you believe Lin would currently start and/or play 30+ mpg?

New York
Philadelphia
Utah
Guangdong Tigers

[Roy Tarpley]

Let's be real. I'm a Lin fan but I recognize that most people/teams don't see him the way I see him. I can list all the stats I want that compare him in almost the same tier as Dragic or Jrue Holiday or even Wall, but most people see him as a backup PG. Got it.

The only way he starts somewhere is if a GM takes a gamble or there's an injury (a la NY in 2012).

But I think Lin would be worth a gamble over:

Monta Ellis (IND)
Marcus Smart (BOS)
Jose Calderon (NYK)
Vasquez/Carter-Williams (MIL)
TJ McConnell (PHI)
Deron Williams (DAL)

Also, if there are injuries to aging players on contending teams like D. Rose or Tony Parker, I could see Lin filling in there as well.

Also, you could argue that Lin might be worth starting over Kemba based on previous year's stats (this year, Kemba has looked pretty good and I'm fine with him starting).

[Hornet Mania]

Yeah, Lin would start in NY for sure. He's better than any PG on the Sixer roster too, but I think Philly would probably rather play prospects so that might put him back on the bench.

I've been happy with what we've gotten from Lin thus far. I didn't expect a world beater, just someone better than Roberts with the occasional ability to provide a spark, and that is pretty much exactly what he has provided. Turnovers and efficiency are issues, but he's a backup so you gotta put it in proper perspective, not many backups in the league are high % low turnover performers. He is a perfect fit for his current role on the team, I don't think he should see it expanded or reined in. He has found a nice low-drama niche for himself in the league with the Hornets if he's willing to settle in as a solid career backup.

[HornetJail]

Let's be real. I'm a Lin fan but I recognize that most people/teams don't see him the way I see him. I can list all the stats I want that compare him in almost the same tier as Dragic or Jrue Holiday or even Wall, but most people see him as a backup PG. Got it.

The only way he starts somewhere is if a GM takes a gamble or there's an injury (a la NY in 2012).

But I think Lin would be worth a gamble over:

Monta Ellis (IND) what?
Marcus Smart (BOS) probably not- definitely doesn't play over Thomas
Jose Calderon (NYK) yes
Vasquez/Carter-Williams (MIL) maybe if MCW flops in MIL too
TJ McConnell (PHI) yes
Deron Williams (DAL) yes, forgot this one

Also, if there are injuries to aging players on contending teams like D. Rose or Tony Parker, I could see Lin filling in there as well.

Also, you could argue that Lin might be worth starting over Kemba based on previous year's stats (this year, Kemba has looked pretty good and I'm fine with him starting).

[anthoang]

Be patient with Lin. Lin usually turns on the burners around the All-Star break in February. I've seen where his 3-point shooting is low... but then that average goes up as the season goes on.

As for Lin's current play... why isn't Cody Zeller running the PnR with Lin? For you Hornets fans, can Cody Zeller dunk an AlleyOop pass? I haven't been able to find any video proof of Zeller dunking an alleyoop (except for an NBA 2k game).

Lin has been running the PnR mainly with Spencer Hawes. My vertical sucks, yet I can still jump higher than Hawes. Heck, it might make more sense for Lin to run the PnR with Lamb.