Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition

[NebWolvesFan]

OKC is a bad match as a trading partner for Minnesota. If Towns gets traded, it's going to be Portland, New York, Orlando or maybe Brooklyn. We should only be doing fake trades for those teams.

[Slim Tubby]

OKC is a bad match as a trading partner for Minnesota. If Towns gets traded, it's going to be Portland, New York, Orlando or maybe Brooklyn. We should only be doing fake trades for those teams.

The only players worthy of a KAT trade with the NYK (Brunson) and BKL (Bridges) are not attainable. ORL makes a ton of sense but I don't believe they're ready to make a "win now" move yet.

As for POR, the only scenario I can see for them is if Lillard has a change of heart, wants to stay and the Blazers believe KAT, Grant and Dame are the core of a contender. I think the Lillard bridge has been torched too far to rebuild, though.

In the end, I can't think of a current team that would be a better trade partner for the Wolves, or any team for that matter, than OKC. They've got a ton of youth that will eventually need to get paid and a boatload of future draft picks.

[minimus]

OKC is a bad match as a trading partner for Minnesota. If Towns gets traded, it's going to be Portland, New York, Orlando or maybe Brooklyn. We should only be doing fake trades for those teams.

ORL makes a ton of sense but I don't believe they're ready to make a "win now" move yet.

I think ORL might be an intresting story to follow:

1) Anthony Black can be as good as advertised

Watch on YouTube

2) Wendell Carter Jr has an team friendly descending contract 13,12,11 mil per year, which balances well Towns asending contract

3) they have Black, Suggs and Fultz and lack shooters behind old Ingles and rookie Howard

4) they have draft capital (own picks)

Similar to OKC they have very weird backcourt with little shooting. Towns might be a good fit there.

[shrink]

With ARod and Lore eyeing public support for a new arena in the next few years, I think it’s highly unlikely they would want to be seen trading Towns to save themselves money, and get future picks and young players that hurt winning for a while.

[jpatrick]

With ARod and Lore eyeing public support for a new arena in the next few years, I think it’s highly unlikely they would want to be seen trading Towns to save themselves money, and get future picks and young players that hurt winning for a while.

This is true. I think they only move Towns if they can get a young player with star potential that they can point to as the future to go along with Ant. Scoot fit that description. I guess Jalen Williams would fit that description, but he’s not obtainable IMO. But a pure cost cutting move that gets future picks and some lower level young players is not going to happen. At least not until this group fails, which could be deadline. Could be next offseason.

I really believe the new owners, although I have no proof, really pushed for a splash trade (Gobert) because they wanted a playoff run to gain support for a new arena.

[shrink]

One issue that an owner of any sports team in Minnesota faces is the competition for fan attention.

The Twin Cities have all four pro sports, and hockey is bigger here than most cities. We have soccer. We have a highly successful WNBA team. We have a Big Ten university right next to downtown, which has every sport as well.

The bottom line here is that each sport is an entertainment opportunity, and a team needs to be successful and exciting to capture the attention of the casual sports fan. Most casual fans don’t take much interest if a team is .500 or worse. We’re the weirdos here, the people that are such big Timberwolves fans that we are posting about it, months before they play their next game. We aren’t the target audience - the large mass of casual fans are. Minnesota teams can gain the interest of casual fans by winning. Even guys like Scoot of Jalen Williams aren’t names casual sports fans really know, or will convince them to drop $200 on a Friday night at Target Center vs a Wild game at Excel, or tomorrow’s Gopher football game.

I think the casual fans are ready to trade Towns, but if the team is winning, they won’t want to risk it for owner savings and delayed gratification of future picks and young players.

[TimberKat]

One issue that an owner of any sports team in Minnesota faces is the competition for fan attention.

The Twin Cities have all four pro sports, and hockey is bigger here than most cities. We have soccer. We have a highly successful WNBA team. We have a Big Ten university right next to downtown, which has every sport as well.

The bottom line here is that each sport is an entertainment opportunity, and a team needs to be successful and exciting to capture the attention of the casual sports fan. Most casual fans don’t take much interest if a team is .500 or worse. We’re the weirdos here, the people that are such big Timberwolves fans that we are posting about it, months before they play their next game. We aren’t the target audience - the large mass of casual fans are. Minnesota teams can gain the interest of casual fans by winning. Even guys like Scoot of Jalen Williams aren’t names casual sports fans really know, or will convince them to drop $200 on a Friday night at Target Center vs a Wild game at Excel, or tomorrow’s Gopher football game.

I think the casual fans are ready to trade Towns, but if the team is winning, they won’t want to risk it for owner savings and delayed gratification of future picks and young players.

Do they really have that much competition? Twins are cost cutting year in year out. What is Arraez's betting avg now? How many playoff games they lose in a row? Wilds haven't been able to get pass 1st round for a while now. Vikings was interesting but limited success. When will I see Gophers beat OSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin all in the same year? I am not sold on Scoot or Williams. Still feel Towns have a lot more valuable than those two.

[KGdaBom]

With ARod and Lore eyeing public support for a new arena in the next few years, I think it’s highly unlikely they would want to be seen trading Towns to save themselves money, and get future picks and young players that hurt winning for a while.

This is true. I think they only move Towns if they can get a young player with star potential that they can point to as the future to go along with Ant. Scoot fit that description. I guess Jalen Williams would fit that description, but he’s not obtainable IMO. But a pure cost cutting move that gets future picks and some lower level young players is not going to happen. At least not until this group fails, which could be deadline. Could be next offseason.

I really believe the new owners, although I have no proof, really pushed for a splash trade (Gobert) because they wanted a playoff run to gain support for a new arena.

Or could be doesn't fail at all. You could have worded it if this group fails, rather than until meaning it's a foregone conclusion this group will fail.

[jpatrick]

With ARod and Lore eyeing public support for a new arena in the next few years, I think it’s highly unlikely they would want to be seen trading Towns to save themselves money, and get future picks and young players that hurt winning for a while.

This is true. I think they only move Towns if they can get a young player with star potential that they can point to as the future to go along with Ant. Scoot fit that description. I guess Jalen Williams would fit that description, but he’s not obtainable IMO. But a pure cost cutting move that gets future picks and some lower level young players is not going to happen. At least not until this group fails, which could be deadline. Could be next offseason.

I really believe the new owners, although I have no proof, really pushed for a splash trade (Gobert) because they wanted a playoff run to gain support for a new arena.

Or could be doesn't fail at all. You could have worded it if this group fails, rather than until meaning it's a foregone conclusion this group will fail.

You’re of course right. And I don’t see it as a forgone conclusion. Do I think we’re a top four seed? No. Probably not. Is it certainly possible? Absolutely. We have talent.

[KGdaBom]

This is true. I think they only move Towns if they can get a young player with star potential that they can point to as the future to go along with Ant. Scoot fit that description. I guess Jalen Williams would fit that description, but he’s not obtainable IMO. But a pure cost cutting move that gets future picks and some lower level young players is not going to happen. At least not until this group fails, which could be deadline. Could be next offseason.

I really believe the new owners, although I have no proof, really pushed for a splash trade (Gobert) because they wanted a playoff run to gain support for a new arena.

Or could be doesn't fail at all. You could have worded it if this group fails, rather than until meaning it's a foregone conclusion this group will fail.

You’re of course right. And I don’t see it as a forgone conclusion. Do I think we’re a top four seed? No. Probably not. Is it certainly possible? Absolutely. We have talent.

Thank you. I appreciate the reply. Being part of the positivity group I do think we're a top 4 seed.

[Klomp]

I think the casual fans are ready to trade Towns, but if the team is winning, they won’t want to risk it for owner savings and delayed gratification of future picks and young players.

I think this is why we're seeing this topic come up so often as a possibility. It's not just basketball-obsessed who are convinced Towns needs to go, it's a lot of casual fans as well. And to your point about ownership, while maybe a true rebuilding package wouldn't be wise, it's worth considering a trade if a chunk of casual fans aren't considering the "entertainment opportunity" at Target Center as long as Towns is on the roster.

We got to that point with Wiggins. We got to that point with Russell. Do we get to that point with Towns?!

[Klomp]

I want to add too that I believe there's a disconnect between what actually is a "win now" move and what fans think it is. I always go back to the Porzingis trade for Dinwiddie and Bertans. No Dallas fan thought this was done to help them win games, but it was and it did.

Similarly, I wonder if the same thing could happen from a Timberwolves/Towns perspective, especially if it happens during the season. I think his return could surprise people. For example, I keep thinking about Kuzma and one of the Washington PGs as a starting point for a trade return, though I know it doesn't make a ton of sense for WAS.

[shrink]

I think the casual fans are ready to trade Towns, but if the team is winning, they won’t want to risk it for owner savings and delayed gratification of future picks and young players.

I think this is why we're seeing this topic come up so often as a possibility. It's not just basketball-obsessed who are convinced Towns needs to go, it's a lot of casual fans as well. And to your point about ownership, while maybe a true rebuilding package wouldn't be wise, it's worth considering a trade if a chunk of casual fans aren't considering the "entertainment opportunity" at Target Center as long as Towns is on the roster.

We got to that point with Wiggins. We got to that point with Russell. Do we get to that point with Towns?!

Right. I think all casual fans might not buy tickets to see KAT, but they buy them because they want to see Ant, and therefore they want to see the Wolves win.

So while it’s rare that any team’s casual fans are ready to trade their (currently at least) “best player,” they aren’t going to be happy if the return they get back costs them, and Ant, immediate team wins. If the Wolves had been losing, they might accept a rebuild, but the team has been to the playoffs two straight times and is starting to generate buzz with Ant. I just don’t see any other team giving MIN a trade package right now that would beat simply keeping him.

[Dewey]

It’s not that uncommon for talented people to succumb to the superior gamers and competitiveness of the game… we just happen to have more of them than other teams. It’s not necessarily being negative… Maybe just a more realistic view

[m2002brian]

I think you look at last year and you can make a determination a couple ways.

-If we had KAT we would have won X more games
-Problem is, we didn’t have KAT. So we lost X more games

-If we replace KAT with someone who’s maybe less offensively talented, but a more capable defender AND they have consistently been available to play….Do we win more games than last year? Who is that player may determine the answer. Once again no Time Machine.

But it’s a question I think that should be asked.


Because last year you are down a player. Forget who the player is, your down a player. Is the team better off with a more reliable presence in the lineup.

I have stressed addition by subtraction for sometime because I believe KAT to be extremely talented. But, the team may be better served with a head down, lunch pale, pj tucker type, than a media personality type in KAT. Nothing wrong with being on tv and doing interview, that’s his thing. What would serve the team better?

[TimberKat]

1. If OKC were to try to trade for KAT, which I think they will not because of his contract, I would be very surprised if they offered anything other than expiring contracts and draft picks. They want to add to their core. None of Giddy, SGA, Wallace, WIlliams, Chet would be available.
Maybe Dieng or Dort, although I have no use for Dort.

2. The new CBA financial concerns are real.

The teams willing to pay big tax money in the past either have made the finals or are in big markets with owners with bottomless pockets (Clippers, Lakers, Warriors for example).
Bucks continue to pay huge tax bills, which is a bit surprising in their market, but they are trying to hang onto Giannis and win a title.
And the "supertax" is going to take away some of the avenues those teams used in the past.
For the first time, there will be real disincentives besides money for spending past a certain point.

Phoenix salary dumped a top tier backup PG on a cheap contract in Cam Payne because he had a 6.5 mil salary, but when luxury tax was taken into consideration it jumped to 23 million.
Miami, a team that had just been to the finals, let 2 young starters go for nothing, who signed for the MLE or less, because of tax concerns.
Miami was almost always a team that paid those guys in the past, sometimes to their detriment.
Duncan Robinson, Josh Richardson, Whiteside, Waiters, the list goes on and on.

3. KAT's contract goes 5 years out, Gobert's 3 years out. KAT's contract will affect the post-Gobert window, he will be 31 making 60+ million the first 2 years post-Gobert. A big part of this season is going to be seeing if KAT can be a long term partner for Ant.

4. This will be KAT's 9th year here, that's long time with one team in this league. It doesn't seem like it has been that long.
If he plays out this contract, he will have spent more time here than KG did. That's crazy.

Does he have another level after 8 years or have we already seen the best from him?
The increase in veteran savvy, maturity, and on-court awareness and execution that players normally gain to offset the erosion of their physical skills as they age, really has yet to manifest with KAT.
Does he understand this is where his next level is going to come from?
That the mental part of the game and not physical skill is what separates him from peers in his age group like Jokic and Embiid?

5. KAT and Gobert will eat into each other's value. Each may have good seasons, neither will put up the stats again together that they once did when they were the sole big. Last year we largely saw KAT taking a back seat and sacrificing his game.
His 14.8 FGA/game were the fewest since his rookie season. That can't continue.

I would like Gobert to take much more of a back seat this season on offense. Instead of rim running and chasing rolls all the time, I'd like to see him setting 6 or 7 picks each possession and giving other players access to the lane.
KAT, Ant, and Naz all can attack a big effectively. Finch needs to get more creative and fit his system more to his personnel.
If they are going to guard KAT with a small, have Gobert screen for him until you get the switch that you want.

6. KAT's problems in the playoffs and in big games are fair game for discussion. 3 terrible playoff series.
Pouting his way to 3 FGA's in a horrible late season loss to Portland's G-Leaguers.
He finished the Denver series strong (although with 2 foulouts), but the first 2 games were brutally awful.
I think it's going to take a good playoff performance for KAT to be back with us in 2024.

7. We have options to replace KAT we didn't have just a couple years ago. Gobert in the short term and Naz long term.
2 ascending 21-22 year olds and some solid veterans. With Ant extended, if we moved KAT we would no longer be trading away our franchise player. We had about the same level of success with or without KAT last year.
That spoke more to KAT's relative ineffectiveness/assertiveness than to his value as a player.

I don't think we should or will trade KAT unless or until the team experiences failure in the coming season.
But if we do experience that failure again, trading KAT is most likely the best way forward.
I just hope if that time comes, that it will be a basketball trade and we will get real value back that will help us long term.

A lot of interesting points. Let's tackle a few here:
2. Notice Suns are dropping their mid salary guys. They trade and drop everyone except max salary Ayton, supermax Booker, and KD. Then turns around and trade a 30M contract (Chris Paul) for a supermax Beal. Heat let go Strus (16M per year) and Vicent (10M per year) who aren't exactly stars; only to get ready to add supermax Dame. So if we learn anything from the new CBA, it's how best to add supermax contract to the roster and not trade away your supermax guys (if you feel they help you win).

3. We lockup Towns for 5 years could be great news. By year 4, his supermax contract will look like a regular max contract because the cap increase 10% annually and his contract increase 8% annually.

4. If KAT is over the hill at age 27, then why do we think Ant's timeline is when he is 27? Let's assume Towns doesn't get any better, his plateau stats would look like 2021-2022: 24.6pt, 9.8RB. If he keeps it up until 32, that is HOF material for a poor defender. Chris Webber, Chris Bosh or Kevin McHale aren't able to carry a team but are great HOF supporting casts.

5. Chris Bosh avg 22 to 24 pts per game in TOR. He never avg more than 21 in MAI. So do we say LBJ eats into his game and must trade him to get draft picks so Heats could be good after LBJ and DWade's timeline are done?

7. It's not about replacing Towns. It's what can you add to make a deep playoff run now. So go get AD, SGA, or other stars. If those aren't available, Towns is by far the better options. You need at least 2 players that demand double team to win a NBA championship.

[Norseman79]

Teams I would watch...Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston. Any of those three teams would be great fits for Karl and have decent assets to send back.

[minimus]

Teams I would watch...Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston. Any of those three teams would be great fits for Karl and have decent assets to send back.

I believe that CHA would be in better position if they drafted Scoot... Right now they dont have much draft capital. HOU have two comboforwards Smith Jr. and Eason, Ausar Thompson looks good, Whitmore looks good, but I dont see HOU trading them and fit here is akward, also they dont have much draft capital as well. In ATL Murray can be available, but I dont like his game in offense. I like Bogdanovic as shooter from the bench, but it will be difficult to match salaries.

[fattymcgee]

Another point that needs to be considered is how well do people think KATs offensive game will age into his 30s. It seems as though his shooting won't decline? Will he pick up some additional Olajuwan moves? Will he figure out how to get to the line more? Will he be able to stay on the court?

I’m sure he won’t get the same lift on his jumpshot three pointers.

I was gonna say "HUH?" but then I noticed the green text.

[Norseman79]

Teams I would watch...Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston. Any of those three teams would be great fits for Karl and have decent assets to send back.

I believe that CHA would be in better position if they drafted Scoot... Right now they dont have much draft capital. HOU have two comboforwards Smith Jr. and Eason, Ausar Thompson looks good, Whitmore looks good, but I dont see HOU trading them and fit here is akward, also they dont have much draft capital as well. In ATL Murray can be available, but I dont like his game in offense. I like Bogdanovic as shooter from the bench, but it will be difficult to match salaries.

All depends on what you expect back and how you see value.