Thunder Offseason Thread

[slick_watts]

Add a lotto protected 1st from CHA to SA and submit to the league office.

charlotte owns cleveland's 2020 2nd also. spurs love those high 2nd round picks.

[Rapaz]

Credit the Heat for showing prudent restraint by not pursuing 34-year-old Chris Paul, a declining player whose contract would seriously restrict Miami’s 2021 flexibility.

Will the Heat continue to listen to OKC, which is eager to trade him? Yes, because the Heat always listens and Miami would consider something that it views as a home run.

But the only way this deal could be justified - and I’m not completely sure it would make sense under any circumstances - would be if three things happen:

1) OKC gives the Heat back its 2021 and 2023 first-round picks, which is difficult for me to envision knowing how much Thunder general manager Sam Presti values draft picks.

2) OKC accepts James Johnson and the expiring contracts of Goran Dragic and Meyers Leonard in exchange for Miami taking on the remaining three years and $124 million of Paul’s deal. (Of course, the case could be made for dealing Dion Waiters or Kelly Olynyk instead of Dragic and Leonard, but I’m eager to see a healthy, better conditioned Waiters, and the Heat was at its best offensively with a Olynyk/Bam Adebayo frontcourt pairing.)

3) Paul and agent Leon Rose assure the Heat that he would opt out of the $44.2 million he’s owed in 2021-22 if the Heat requests, with the understanding that he would be given a two- or three-year deal at less money. But that step is tricky, because there would be nothing legally to hold Rose and Paul to that promise, and because the Heat - by league rule - cannot actually promise Paul that it would give him a three-year contract in the range of, say, $38 million in the summer of 2021. And there might be no incentive for Paul to acquiece.

And there’s this possibility: What if Paul tears his ACL in the 2020-21 season and tells the Heat he changed his mind and won’t opt out?

So there would be a lot of trust necessary to take those steps, and I’m not sure it’s worth the risk.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article232592072.html

A fair take. I would think releasing Miami’s two picks would motivate Riley to accept, even if Paul gives no assurances that he will opt out.

[jambalaya]

On average the other 29 teams have a bit more than .5 Rich Paul clients. Thunder (before Noel fired him) had 3 or 6 times the average. Is R Paul parking clients with the Thunder? Is Presti trying to curry favor? I dunno. Maybe not, but something to consider.

[oreojenkins]

Credit the Heat for showing prudent restraint by not pursuing 34-year-old Chris Paul, a declining player whose contract would seriously restrict Miami’s 2021 flexibility.

Will the Heat continue to listen to OKC, which is eager to trade him? Yes, because the Heat always listens and Miami would consider something that it views as a home run.

But the only way this deal could be justified - and I’m not completely sure it would make sense under any circumstances - would be if three things happen:

1) OKC gives the Heat back its 2021 and 2023 first-round picks, which is difficult for me to envision knowing how much Thunder general manager Sam Presti values draft picks.

2) OKC accepts James Johnson and the expiring contracts of Goran Dragic and Meyers Leonard in exchange for Miami taking on the remaining three years and $124 million of Paul’s deal. (Of course, the case could be made for dealing Dion Waiters or Kelly Olynyk instead of Dragic and Leonard, but I’m eager to see a healthy, better conditioned Waiters, and the Heat was at its best offensively with a Olynyk/Bam Adebayo frontcourt pairing.)

3) Paul and agent Leon Rose assure the Heat that he would opt out of the $44.2 million he’s owed in 2021-22 if the Heat requests, with the understanding that he would be given a two- or three-year deal at less money. But that step is tricky, because there would be nothing legally to hold Rose and Paul to that promise, and because the Heat - by league rule - cannot actually promise Paul that it would give him a three-year contract in the range of, say, $38 million in the summer of 2021. And there might be no incentive for Paul to acquiece.

And there’s this possibility: What if Paul tears his ACL in the 2020-21 season and tells the Heat he changed his mind and won’t opt out?

So there would be a lot of trust necessary to take those steps, and I’m not sure it’s worth the risk.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article232592072.html

A fair take. I would think releasing Miami’s two picks would motivate Riley to accept, even if Paul gives no assurances that he will opt out.

OKC will not give up two first round picks to dump Paul when they could've just traded Westbrook for filler in the first place. Miami can move on and begin worrying about 2021 free agency now.

[thor19]

Would you do a three team deal sending cp3 and beal to miami, schroder, herro, bam and 3 of our picks to wizards and we get dragic, hachimura, plus fillers ( at the deadline we can trade dragic for a pick or two to a contending desperate team)?? Or we get wiggings or ride with a unhappy cp3 ?

Thats the idea of this trade, we give wizards miamis pick , miami give them herro and bam they can start a rebuild with herro and bam and we get dragic and a prospect in hachimura, now we have SGA and Hachimura to start our rebuild at the deadline we trade Gallo and Dragic get more picks

[ThunderBolt]

Would you do a three team deal sending cp3 and beal to miami, schroder, herro, bam and 3 of our picks to wizards and we get dragic, hachimura, plus fillers ( at the deadline we can trade dragic for a pick or two to a contending desperate team)?? Or we get wiggings or ride with a unhappy cp3 ?

Thats the idea of this trade, we give wizards miamis pick , miami give them herro and bam they can start a rebuild with herro and bam and we get dragic and a prospect in hachimura, now we have SGA and Hachimura to start our rebuild at the deadline we trade Gallo and Dragic get more picks

If Miami is willing to take wall to get Beal and Washington doesn’t do it, I suspect they’ll hold on to him until he walks in free agency.

[thor19]

Would you do a three team deal sending cp3 and beal to miami, schroder, herro, bam and 3 of our picks to wizards and we get dragic, hachimura, plus fillers ( at the deadline we can trade dragic for a pick or two to a contending desperate team)?? Or we get wiggings or ride with a unhappy cp3 ?

Thats the idea of this trade, we give wizards miamis pick , miami give them herro and bam they can start a rebuild with herro and bam and we get dragic and a prospect in hachimura, now we have SGA and Hachimura to start our rebuild at the deadline we trade Gallo and Dragic get more picks

If Miami is willing to take wall to get Beal and Washington doesn’t do it, I suspect they’ll hold on to him until he walks in free agency.

Miami can wait and get him in free agency or take wall contract that its worst than cp3, also someteam maybe make and offer to the wizards and get beal in a better situation and make a better offer beating miami. The heat dont have any picks so they have to wait others team maybe can get wizard to trade them Beal for picks and some players

[Rapaz]

OKC will not give up two first round picks to dump Paul when they could've just traded Westbrook for filler in the first place. Miami can move on and begin worrying about 2021 free agency now.

Presti acquired those picks and swaps from Houston knowing full well he would need to attach assets—plural—to move Paul’s contract. Houston paid a premium for Westbrook precisely because they could not find a third team to take Paul. I suspect Miami won’t be the only one demanding at least two picks to strike a deal.

[thor19]

Wizards know they are a few teams crazy enough to take beal and walls contract , sadly heat, knicks and us are few of those team if hornets were not cheap , they will take him

[slick_watts]

OKC will not give up two first round picks to dump Paul when they could've just traded Westbrook for filler in the first place. Miami can move on and begin worrying about 2021 free agency now.

Presti acquired those picks and swaps from Houston knowing full well he would need to attach assets—plural—to move Paul’s contract. Houston paid a premium for Westbrook precisely because they could not find a third team to take Paul. I suspect Miami won’t be the only one demanding at least two picks to strike a deal.

i agree. the only other explanation is that he may try and convince chris paul to play for the thunder. i dunno, sam presti is nuts sometimes.

but if cp3 doesn't want to play for okc i definitely believe sam presti is ready to trade the assets required to get him off the team.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Wizards know they are a few teams crazy enough to take beal and walls contract , sadly heat, knicks and us are few of those team if hornets were not cheap , they will take him

Washington isn't trading Beal. No one is going to call and make an offer to get them to do it. Kawhi told Toronto he wanted Beal or PG. There is a reason we have heard about Toronto missing on PG and not on Beal. Washington hangs up when you say his name. Beal is their long-term building block like Harden was for Houston.

CP3 will have suitors at some point that will give up assets to acquire him. That might not be until the season, but it will happen. CP3 is still a top 5 PG when he is on the court. Morey gave up assets with CP3 to get Russ not because CP3 has less value, but because their new ownership is involved and Harden wanted to play with Russ again. If Presti doesn't get assets to move CP3 then you go into the season with a lineup of CP3/SGA/Fergu/Gallinari/Adams. They will win more games than you would consider ideal for a "tanking" team. However, that team will be entertaining, competitive and win games. It might be just good enough that Presti holds tight and makes the playoffs then moves CP3 next off-season while Gallinari walks in FA.

If Houston and OKC do not make any more moves OKC will be expected to make the playoffs and Houston will be expected to miss. It was the opposite before the trade. Russ has the worst contract in the NBA not because he is a bad player, but because he wants his stats and doesn't care about winning and is not going to change for anyone. Russ is a great player and very entertaining, but he hurts his team by choosing individual glory over team accolades. CP3 is the opposite. CP3 wants his team to go as far as possible and win as much as possible. CP3 isn't the better individual player at this point, but he is the better player to have on your team if you want to win and always has been. Presti should not get in a hurry with CP3. People want to scream CP3 is in decline. Yup, he was 1% off his career eFG% last year and 2% off his career TS%. His stl%, ast%, to%, FTr and every other rate stats was right in line with the last 5 years. So either CP3 has been an overpaid bum for a long time or people are just blowing his slight dip in shooting way out of proportion and if he shoots like he did in '17-'18 while everything else stays in line he will be the only top 3 PG on the trade market.

I have been as hard on Presti the last few years as anyone. Even I don't think he is stupid enough to sell CP3 low when he can wait and get a very good return after he reminds everyone that he will elevate their team. Gallinari is likely traded before the season starts either way and that trade might all be agreed to in principle and just waiting on the clock to run out so he can be traded again. I don't ever recall a time when Presti sold low on a player. Trading a player who was done, i.e. Melo/Perkins does not count. You can argue Reggie Jackson, but I don't think his value was ever anything more than what it was when he was traded.

[Kizz Fastfists]

but if cp3 doesn't want to play for okc i definitely believe sam presti is ready to trade the assets required to get him off the team.

I don't think it would be hard to sell CP3 on playing a month or two to get more teams interested. It might require a bit of a trade off with agreeing to send CP3 to a list 10 or so teams he provides. You can always threaten him with sitting at home and watching the season until someone is willing to trade fair value, which would be made harder by him not showing teams that he is still a top 5 PG.

[slick_watts]

but if cp3 doesn't want to play for okc i definitely believe sam presti is ready to trade the assets required to get him off the team.

I don't think it would be hard to sell CP3 on playing a month or two to get more teams interested. It might require a bit of a trade off with agreeing to send CP3 to a list 10 or so teams he provides. You can always threaten him with sitting at home and watching the season until someone is willing to trade fair value, which would be made harder by him not showing teams that he is still a top 5 PG.

sam presti has sacrificed value for optics countless times. i can't see him making this threat or acting on it. maybe he and cp3 can be on the same page to start the season but this would be uncharacteristic for both parties.

[Old Man Game]

Man, something seems strange about a lot of the reporting we're seeing. Very pro Miami slanted. 'Miami not even really that interested.' 'Would have to blown away.' 'Needs 3 first rounders to even consider it.' Etc. I think we're getting a lot of selective leaking from Miami's front office to try and negotiate this thing through the media. Right up until Woj said Russ was headed to Houston the conversation around that story had a similar tenor to it.

We'll see, but every negative story I see I feel less inclined to believe Miami is the ultimate destination. It'll be some team that isn't even being talked about and the terms won't be nearly as draconian as we are being led to believe.

[thor19]

I understand that Presti will not sold low on cp3 and maybe he start the season with us , and that just few teams want cp3 . Also know that wizards would not trade Beal at the moment, when miami give up on trying to trade for beal without taking wall contract maybe they call us . Also we have to get a pick in the 10-20 if not our pick will go to the 76ers

[Old Man Game]

Ouch.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I mean, seriously, he still goes to the mall?

[Kizz Fastfists]

I understand that Presti will not sold low on cp3 and maybe he start the season with us , and that just few teams want cp3 . Also know that wizards would not trade Beal at the moment, when miami give up on trying to trade for beal without taking wall contract maybe they call us . Also we have to get a pick in the 10-20 if not our pick will go to the 76ers

Miami doesn't have much in the way of assets. Winslow is a solid player, but he has a market value contract. Bam is an old school center in an age where that lacks value. Herro is a rookie who was a late lottery pick in a weak draft class. They have no first round picks to trade because OKC owns them all between the 2021 directly and the protections on the 2023 until it goes unprotected in 2026.

Beal isn't an option for Miami and never will be. If Miami is more concerned about their mediocre assets than trying to get to the 2nd round next year then they can keep them. Butler is 30 and isn't going to get better at this point. They are a fringe playoff team. The difference between Butler and Richardson is minimal and given their age you could make a case for Richardson being better this season. Then when you pull Whiteside and Wade, who had a solid final season, Ellington being gone, etc then they are pretty much where they were last year on the outside of the playoffs looking in. No reason for anyone to bail them out and give them assets. Let them miss the playoffs while dealing with Butler's locker room antics and making it even less likely a significant FA will sign with them in the near future. If Herro struggles as an undersized combo guard and Bam continues to show no range it further deteriorates the value of their "assets".

[spearsy23]

Just keep Paul. Call Miami's bluff, and if it ends up not being a bluff then live with the picks you've got until Paul opts out for a last shot at a ring. Alternatively, trade him to Washington for Wall and three picks. Never know how he'll come back, but you're spending that money either way.

[ozwizard8]

Thunder would rather release cp3 then deal him with 3 1st round picks.
This team is obviously tanking foe next couple years. No FA signing plans until 2022.
If tax or payroll is a issue, Robertson s last season, Adams last 2 seasons wouldnt be that hard to trade. Gallinari is slighlty positivie asset to trade too.

Attaching sth to Paul doesnt make sense.
If Wizards interested I'd trade him for Wall and a pick.

[jake_swivel]

My biggest fear in all this is that CP looks better by not having to bend his game to Harden and this team overachieves enough that management thinks it’s a good idea to ride with them.

I mean, that’d be about as damaging to the franchise’s long term growth as him blowing out his ACL the first game of the season. At least then you’d lose games and could start with the selling off of Gallo and Adams.

Wasting a year being mediocre means you’re one year closer to having to extend Ferguson and SGA without getting an elite draft asset. You start losing flexibility and once contracts start kicking in, you’re forced to compete without the talent necessary to be an elite team.

Then you’re back right where you started.