Official Trade Thread - Part XXX

[payitforward]

You are reading Barton's career numbers wrong. As a rookie he wasn't very productive in @900 minutes. But in his 2d season w/ Portland and both seasons in Denver he's been quite good and also improving from year to year. Big thing this year is that he's developed his 3 point shot.

Not suggesting we should trade for him, or even that Denver wants to trade him -- why would they?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

For what purpose?

We have no PFs on the roster aside from Humphries

I agree with you in the diagnosis of the problem, but not he prescription. The last time Smith rated average or better in my analysis was the 2012-13 season. The days when he was good are well in the past.

Kevin, check out his 2014-2015 splits. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithjo03/splits/2015/

Smith is a hot or cold player. Post all star he was hot.

While he is a terrible free throw shooter and an inconsistent, inefficient offensive player; Smith has the physical ability to impact games defensively. He's additionally a tremendous passer and a good shot blocker.

Smith posted real good numbers as a sub who played 25 minutes or less. He was horrible as a starter. Again, hot and cold.

My assessment is I disagree with The Secret Weapon...

Josh Smith is like Juan Dixon--real good when he's on. He's unlike Juan in that Smith is a low-IQ, at times disinterested player. The right coach can maximize Smith the same way Eddie Jordan maximized Dixon's effectiveness.

Understand the player lacks professionalism. Consider he runs like a deer and leaps tall buildings like Superman. He is unselfish but also a bad decision maker. He thinks like a deer IMO. It is what it is.

All things considered Smith is a player I would welcome as a post all star break sub. I would ask him to be our Draymond Green off the bench. Smith truly has the skill set to try and emulate Green. When his three is dropping and he's locked in defensively he is a fine player.

[sashae]

beal is definitely getting a max in this market--its an awful awful market right now--you can get try to be cute and let him walk and swap him with a guy like Barton but its not a move that a guy like KD would be hyped about at all, and if dude regresses then your team looks like hot ass and Wall will be looking for a way out

Totally agree. Whether it's from the Wizards or from another team, Beal will get the max, likely on the strength of his quality playoff play (and history of s--t coaching/player development in Washington suppressing his development.)

[Dark Faze]

You can point to advanced stats all you want--but the wider understanding is that Beal is an up and coming talent. Strong playoff performances on national TV and clearly on the radar of USA basketball of late.

It doesn't really matter if his reputation is better than reality--as long as perception is what it is then we're making ourself less marketable to free agents by moving him unless we bring in an equivalent player in terms of reputation

[TheSecretWeapon]

We have no PFs on the roster aside from Humphries

I agree with you in the diagnosis of the problem, but not he prescription. The last time Smith rated average or better in my analysis was the 2012-13 season. The days when he was good are well in the past.

Kevin, check out his 2014-2015 splits. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithjo03/splits/2015/

Smith is a hot or cold player. Post all star he was hot.

While he is a terrible free throw shooter and an inconsistent, inefficient offensive player; Smith has the physical ability to impact games defensively. He's additionally a tremendous passer and a good shot blocker.

Smith posted real good numbers as a sub who played 25 minutes or less. He was horrible as a starter. Again, hot and cold.

My assessment is I disagree with The Secret Weapon...

Josh Smith is like Juan Dixon--real good when he's on. He's unlike Juan in that Smith is a low-IQ, at times disinterested player. The right coach can maximize Smith the same way Eddie Jordan maximized Dixon's effectiveness.

Understand the player lacks professionalism. Consider he runs like a deer and leaps tall buildings like Superman. He is unselfish but also a bad decision maker. He thinks like a deer IMO. It is what it is.

All things considered Smith is a player I would welcome as a post all star break sub. I would ask him to be our Draymond Green off the bench. Smith truly has the skill set to try and emulate Green. When his three is dropping and he's locked in defensively he is a fine player.

I looked at his game log. His PPA for the season was a not-awful 77. After the All-Star break, his PPA was 83. So what he did after the All-Star break wasn't significantly different than what he did before -- it was a bit better, though.

I do see some feast-or-famine in the game log. He played 29 games after the All-Star break last season -- 3 of the rated 200 or better in PPA. Another 6 rated 150 or better. So, that's 31% of the time he rated a 150 or better. But, he had just one game between 100 (which is average in PPA) and 150. So, basically he performed better than average about 1-in-3 games. He was terrific in most of those games.

But, good (or better) every third game (approximately) means not as good in the other two games. And those "other two" were awful, in general. Just 5 of those games rated above replacement level. There were another 7 games that were worse than replacement level, but better than zero. And, another 7 where his production was a net negative. So, after the All-Star break last season, 24% of his games were a net negative in production. After the All-Star break, 48% of his games rated below replacement level; 66% were below average.

With no way of reliably predicting which version is going to show up game-to-game, there's no way to rely on him as part of the rotation. He's more likely to be a negative than he is a contributor. I wouldn't want him on my team.

[TheSecretWeapon]

You can point to advanced stats all you want--but the wider understanding is that Beal is an up and coming talent. Strong playoff performances on national TV and clearly on the radar of USA basketball of late.

It doesn't really matter if his reputation is better than reality--as long as perception is what it is then we're making ourself less marketable to free agents by moving him unless we bring in an equivalent player in terms of reputation

The difficulty, though, is that if Beal can't get to a point where his production matches his reputation, AND he gets paid based on the reputation/hope, then the Wizards are going to be handcuffed by his massive contract. They'd be paying 25% of the cap to an average player. His reputation has definitely exceeded his performance thus far in his career, including the playoffs.

I understand your point about Beal being part of the recruitment package to land a free agent. Is that worth paying him 25+% of the cap for the next five seasons? I don't think so, assuming the quality of his play doesn't improve significantly. Especially if he can be traded for a more productive player (a guy whose production exceeds his reputation, perhaps), which would improve the team and make it at least as attractive as it would have been had they paid a premium to keep Beal and his reputation.

[Ruzious]

Knicks fan here. Everyone knows that you guys aren't going anywhere without a real first option anyways and KD prolly isn't even thinking about signing for Wizards at all, so you gotta trade for that star.

Melo for Beal + Porter + 2016 Washington First Rounder

This way you might be able to actually make it out of the second round for once and we'll get some pieces to build around Porz.

If and when the Wizards miss out on Durant this summer, (which I think is likely) I can see them turning their attention to Melo. But it doesn't make sense to do so now.

I think the trade you proposed is a little bit of an overpay based on Melo's age and injury history. If we were talking Nene (exp) + Beal + pick, I'd be more interested.

Why not wait till the offseason and do a sign and trade? I recall the current CBA has some restrictions about S&T's, but my recollection is it only restricts teams that are over the cap, so we should be able to do it. Correcto? Yeah, Beal and the pick and maybe a future protected pick sounds reasonable for both teams.

[gambitx777]

I think trading beal might be the best thing right now. If our locker room is as big of a mess as it might be. Lets get this done.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

You can point to advanced stats all you want--but the wider understanding is that Beal is an up and coming talent. Strong playoff performances on national TV and clearly on the radar of USA basketball of late.

It doesn't really matter if his reputation is better than reality--as long as perception is what it is then we're making ourself less marketable to free agents by moving him unless we bring in an equivalent player in terms of reputation

DF, the first time I heard "Perception is reality", was approximately 30 years ago when I was commissioned as a second lieutenant in the United States Air Force.

I experienced some culture shock at that time and then some.

I'm not mad at you and I cannot say I disagree.

Bottom line is I say who cares about OTP? Other team's property? If they are truly FREE AGENTS they are free to ride another mule in another city, so to speak.

My perception is KD would play for Golden State or the Knicks or the Lakers or the Magic or the Heat before he'd play for Ted and Ernie. (I'm thinking about Burt and Ernie but in no way meaning disrespect--I didn't eat dinner yet and I hit the gym well today).

Trading Beal is or could be in the Wizards' best interest per nate33 and others. I love Beal's family. I have close relatives in Missouri. I lived near Scott AFB years ago. I hung out not far from St. Louis. I WANT that kid to be part of the Wizards...but only if he's worth the price.

His PER and stress fractures affect the Wizards continuity. Yes, dude went BEAST MODE last playoffs.

But the Wizards didn't get past the Hawks and last I checked this team seems fine with Temple at SG.

KD might no like to see Beal go. But how do you know he doesn't care for other NBA talents like Barton?

[gambitx777]

I just had a brilliant Idea, or at least I think it's pretty slick.
We send Beal to the 76ers. Then need s star guard and they are going to have so much cap room, that giving beal the max is not an issue for them.
So we send Beal to the 76ers right. The send one of Noel, Embid, or Oakafur, to the kings, which ever one the 76ers want to move. Then we send a 2017 first and NENE to the kings and we get Boggie. Then we just need to figure out how to work our 2 guard situation for the rest of the year. and our back up big spot. But I feel like we can handle it.Its not perfect but, it keeps us from over paying beal and we pretty much get boogie for pennies because we manipulate a situation the right way!

[fishercob]

I just had a brilliant Idea, or at least I think it's pretty slick.
We send Beal to the 76ers. Then need s star guard and they are going to have so much cap room, that giving beal the max is not an issue for them.
So we send Beal to the 76ers right. The send one of Noel, Embid, or Oakafur, to the kings, which ever one the 76ers want to move. Then we send a 2017 first and NENE to the kings and we get Boggie. Then we just need to figure out how to work our 2 guard situation for the rest of the year. and our back up big spot. But I feel like we can handle it.Its not perfect but, it keeps us from over paying beal and we pretty much get boogie for pennies because we manipulate a situation the right way!

This is a really good idea. Say what you want about DMC's attitude and inefficiency. I'd much rather have him on his contract than Beal at the max. The key would be getting Sacto and Philly to agree on which big man -- I think Sacto would want Okafor. I think Okafor would want out of Philly. Just not sure Philly would bite. But if they believe in Embiid, they'd have to consider.

[Ruzious]

I just had a brilliant Idea, or at least I think it's pretty slick.
We send Beal to the 76ers. Then need s star guard and they are going to have so much cap room, that giving beal the max is not an issue for them.
So we send Beal to the 76ers right. The send one of Noel, Embid, or Oakafur, to the kings, which ever one the 76ers want to move. Then we send a 2017 first and NENE to the kings and we get Boggie. Then we just need to figure out how to work our 2 guard situation for the rest of the year. and our back up big spot. But I feel like we can handle it.Its not perfect but, it keeps us from over paying beal and we pretty much get boogie for pennies because we manipulate a situation the right way!

This is a really good idea. Say what you want about DMC's attitude and inefficiency. I'd much rather have him on his contract than Beal at the max. The key would be getting Sacto and Philly to agree on which big man -- I think Sacto would want Okafor. I think Okafor would want out of Philly. Just not sure Philly would bite. But if they believe in Embiid, they'd have to consider.

Great thought by gambitx - though I think it'll need to be a 4 way trade - since none of those Philly centers really fits Sac - since they picked WCS and signed Koufas (sp?).

[Ruzious]

Btw, to the folks who laughed at me continuing to say we should get Withey... viewtopic.php?f=33&t=1421302#start_here

[Dark Faze]

I just had a brilliant Idea, or at least I think it's pretty slick.
We send Beal to the 76ers. Then need s star guard and they are going to have so much cap room, that giving beal the max is not an issue for them.
So we send Beal to the 76ers right. The send one of Noel, Embid, or Oakafur, to the kings, which ever one the 76ers want to move. Then we send a 2017 first and NENE to the kings and we get Boggie. Then we just need to figure out how to work our 2 guard situation for the rest of the year. and our back up big spot. But I feel like we can handle it.Its not perfect but, it keeps us from over paying beal and we pretty much get boogie for pennies because we manipulate a situation the right way!

there are a lot of potential moves for boogie that work, its just a matter of when the kings will be willing

imo they should do it sooner rather than later--its unlikely that the team improves considerably before cousins has the upper hand at the end of his contract

[gambitx777]

This is a really good idea. Say what you want about DMC's attitude and inefficiency. I'd much rather have him on his contract than Beal at the max. The key would be getting Sacto and Philly to agree on which big man -- I think Sacto would want Okafor. I think Okafor would want out of Philly. Just not sure Philly would bite. But if they believe in Embiid, they'd have to consider.

Great thought by gambitx - though I think it'll need to be a 4 way trade - since none of those Philly centers really fits Sac - since they picked WCS and signed Koufas (sp?).

Well I don't think it would be that hard to get them to agree, I actually think the kings would want Embid, Over all he has the most up side and most star potential and he has a better attitude than boogie. WCS and Koufas are no reason not to take any of these guys, Embid and Noel are more PF in the NBA than C. If I'm The kings I'm asking for Embid first, Okafur second and Noel last. But I would take any of those 3 if I were them. It's just a smart move, It works out for every one involved. The kings get rid of boggie and get cap room, a future star and a first, 76ers get a star guard and a go to guy for one dude that they don't need, and we get two starters and we still hold on to KD2DC. This actually helps KD2DC because now he comes to a team with 2 star players, a high quality center, and some decent guys with Porter, Kelly O and I'm assuming we bring back sessions. and we still have a little room, over seas guys and our exceptions, to build a bench. And with this team, we will get some guys to come here on the min, plus we have 1 years deals and some picks left to move before the dead line to bring in a guys like barton or hickson.

[Ruzious]

You can't have 2 starting bigs clogging the lane on offense in today's NBA unless they're great players. Okafor is a very flawed defensive player who's going make his money scoring inside. Noel is a very flawed offensive player. Philly likey ain't gonna ever win playing them together because of spacing issues.

If Embid's healthy, Philly won't trade him. If he's not healthy, nobody's going to give up much for him.

[pcbothwel]

I see no reason to trade Beal with his value so low. I dont see how anyone will give us anything of real value. I think you ride out this year with him and see if he can return to playoff form.
I think the only scenario that really cripples you is if you sign him for the max and he plays like he has this year. But I dont see that happening. I think the demand will far outweigh the supply over the next year and Beal could easily be dumped if really necessary.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yup, brilliant idea, gambit.

(I'm guessing you might play chess,
perhaps on line. PM if you do).

[nuposse04]

Neal's on/off numbers are staggeringly bad... but I wonder if there is a dumb enough GM out there who would take him from us. He is the guard version of Enes Kanter of old. Decent/good personal stats... but just destroys the team when he gets minutes.

With Gobert coming back to Utah, and Burks being out, maybe something like Neal for Booker +w/e filler we need to add. Utah does need some shooting, and maybe it'd take a player like Gobert to mask Neal's inability to keep his man in front of him.

[Dark Faze]

id actually be surprised if ernie doesn't try to trade our pick

it'd be an admission of failure or essentially "giving up" to him