S&T With New Orleans: The Devonte Graham Thread

[JMAC3]

I have started a small series on the board breaking down players shooting tendencies/numbers from different distances. Figured it makes sense to do one for Graham as well since he is the target of blame for many of us right now.

Graham 2019
35 mpg, 18.2 ppg, 7.5 apg, 3.4 rpg on 38/37.3/82%.

Graham 2020
32 mpg, 10.4 ppg, 6.3 apg, 3.1 rpg on 26/31.7/78.6%

Shot Breakdown
Player
Distance- Percentage of shots attempted from distance/Shooting Percentage from said Distance

2019 Graham
0-3 Feet- 13%/ 54%
3-10 Feet- 11%/ 27.5%
10-16 Feet- 7.5%/ 35%
16- 3P- 7.5%/ 36.5%
3P - 61%/ 37.3%

2020 Graham
0-3 Feet- 14%/ 28.5%
3-10 Feet- 8%/ 0%
10-16 Feet- 9%/ 11%
16- 3P- 6%/ 17%
3P - 63%/31.7%

Recap: He can't make a shot. We have all seen it over and over to start the season. However, his shot profile is almost identical to last year in terms of where his shots are coming from so it is not a massive difference in the type of shots he is taking, it just appears he is not making them at the same clip. Even if you look at his per 36 mins (because he is playing 3 less minutes a game this year) his shot attempts, assists, rebounds, and steals are about the same or better.

His game is really reliant on his three point shot.. not only does he shoot a ton of them, but he builds the rest of his game off his shot with pump fakes, attacking closeouts, drawing shooting fouls, etc. When he is not making these shots the defense can guard him completely different and he looks like a shell of himself.

My final assumption is that he will figure it out, he did not just become a bad shooter overnight after such a large sample size last season. He will eventually get back on track at some point and will be a plus player in this league. However, I am not sure that means he fits with us moving forward. He may be a trade piece or a guy we lose as a roster casualty at some point, but to trade him now while his value is rock bottom is a bad move. Moving him to the bench and showcasing him as a 6th man might actually be great for his value, because more than likely that would be his role on a team via trade because not many teams are looking for a starting point guard right now.

[yasuhara2241]

Confidence is shot for whatever reason. There are shots that he is open and just pump fakes. Then if he hits one, it seems like he tries to push his luck and go for a very difficult 3 in the next possession. I think Graham just isn't playing in the flow of the offense. It feels like I know what possession he is going to try and score.

To be fair, I want Ball to start but only if Miles comes with him. Graham to the bench with PJ. The biggest issue is that this weakens our bench tremendously especially if we aren't going to have another scorer like Monk in the rotation.

[fatlever]

graham still +3.6 net rtg despite shooting so awful. terry -11.2, ball -5.2.

im not ready to give up on him. we still play better when he is on floor.

we might need more graham/ball (+14.7) and less graham/terry (-8.0) or ball/terry (-14.0). something to watch over next few games.

[DY_nasty]

graham still +3.6 net rtg despite shooting so awful. terry -11.2, ball -5.2.

im not ready to give up on him. we still play better when he is on floor.

we might need more graham/ball (+14.7) and less graham/terry (-8.0) or ball/terry (-14.0). something to watch over next few games.

that net rating is propped up by the guys he's playing with

even without waiting for adjusted stats i can wing that off with complete confidence. by the numbers, ball is doing more with less more consistently than anyone else on the team. he's JUST starting getting minutes with hayward consistently

[yasuhara2241]

My biggest issue with the +- is just the main fact that the Starters have been struggling a whole lot. Only a couple games have we had a lead when the reserves come in game in the first quarter. If we go solely on NET RTG then we Graham is playing better than Hayward which we all know isn't true.

[James Gatz]

graham still +3.6 net rtg despite shooting so awful. terry -11.2, ball -5.2.

im not ready to give up on him. we still play better when he is on floor.

we might need more graham/ball (+14.7) and less graham/terry (-8.0) or ball/terry (-14.0). something to watch over next few games.

I'm with fats. Lets wait till game 15 before we write off Graham. I like Graham with Melo more than Rozier. Let Rozier crave up 2nd units and be the primary scorer.

[fatlever]

graham still +3.6 net rtg despite shooting so awful. terry -11.2, ball -5.2.

im not ready to give up on him. we still play better when he is on floor.

we might need more graham/ball (+14.7) and less graham/terry (-8.0) or ball/terry (-14.0). something to watch over next few games.

that net rating is propped up by the guys he's playing with

even without waiting for adjusted stats i can wing that off with complete confidence. by the numbers, ball is doing more with less more consistently than anyone else on the team. he's JUST starting getting minutes with hayward consistently

I want ball to get more minutes. I just want his minutes to come at the expense of Terry rather than Graham. Nobody is playing well with Terry at the moment. Graham has a positive net rating with pretty much everyone on the team. Just like last year the team functions better when Graham's on the floor.

Last game with the first time we saw a extended minutes with ball, Graham, and Hayward at the same time. I'll be curious to see how that line up does going forward.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

[JMAC3]

To be honest Graham is shooting 30+% from three now which is typically normal for players when they go into slumps. It is really his 2pt percentage that is screwing him. I think once he starts to shoot a little bit better from three it will be a rolling effect and his percentages will increase at every level.

That said, I am fine starting LaMelo now and letting Graham come off the bench. There is no scenario where Melo is not starting in the NBA very soon. No reason to wait on that when Graham is unlikely a future starter for us.

[Braggins]

I still want to trade Rozier for the best center they can find thats decently young. If Graham doesn't work out then I'd rather not have either of them, but if Graham turns it around I would totally be down to resign him on a reasonable deal.

[JMAC3]

Graham or Rozier are the future sixth man of this team, no reason not to start to head in that direction and start LaMelo over one of them. It is going to happen sooner rather than later, so why delay figuring out who is the better fit to start and better fit for 6th man role. We can get ahead of that dilemma instead of waiting another 10-20 games and then starting that process. Start the process now and we will be better in the long run.

Ideal world is they are both a great fit 1 as the starter next to LaMelo and the other great as the 6th man. However, that is unrealistic and more than likely one will either excel as the starter or one will excel as the 6th man. At least we are still filling one hole and then we can move on from other and fill that hole with a better fit.

[DY_nasty]

i can't say this enough, but its not just the shooting

hyperfocusing on that is really, really minimizing the issue. and JB needs to catch flak because he's allowing or telling Graham to shoot his way out of it to the point where he's taking bad shots consistently *while also* throwing out lineups to prop him up. the guy could be shooting 40% and still be playing awful basketball all over the court. and propping up ast/to numbers while we have some of the worst offense in the league - and ALSO some of the worst fg% at the the rim? he's out there setting up guys to fail.

we overpass to the point where its counterproductive - and graham is the #1 proponent of that

graham still +3.6 net rtg despite shooting so awful. terry -11.2, ball -5.2.

im not ready to give up on him. we still play better when he is on floor.

we might need more graham/ball (+14.7) and less graham/terry (-8.0) or ball/terry (-14.0). something to watch over next few games.

that net rating is propped up by the guys he's playing with

even without waiting for adjusted stats i can wing that off with complete confidence. by the numbers, ball is doing more with less more consistently than anyone else on the team. he's JUST starting getting minutes with hayward consistently

I want ball to get more minutes. I just want his minutes to come at the expense of Terry rather than Graham. Nobody is playing well with Terry at the moment. Graham has a positive net rating with pretty much everyone on the team. Just like last year the team functions better when Graham's on the floor.

Last game with the first time we saw a extended minutes with ball, Graham, and Hayward at the same time. I'll be curious to see how that line up does going forward.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

not enough people are playing well to even be using "these guys play well together" comparisons at all really

if anything, the only people who are even moderately consistent on both sides of the ball are ball and hayward. maybe biz if you consider playing the best the guy can possibly play to be something worth considering

and hell - if we gave rozier the same greenlight than we do to graham, then things would be insane we're literally out here telling graham to play better and giving him more minutes until he does. that's absurd

[Braggins]

Graham or Rozier are the future sixth man of this team, no reason not to start to head in that direction and start LaMelo over one of them. It is going to happen sooner rather than later, so why delay figuring out who is the better fit to start and better fit for 6th man role. We can get ahead of that dilemma instead of waiting another 10-20 games and then starting that process. Start the process now and we will be better in the long run.

Ideal world is they are both a great fit 1 as the starter next to LaMelo and the other great as the 6th man. However, that is unrealistic and more than likely one will either excel as the starter or one will excel as the 6th man. At least we are still filling one hole and then we can move on from other and fill that hole with a better fit.

I think you need to split up LaMelo and Graham so both lineups have a primary facilitator. I think Terry on the bench unit with no playmakers sounds like a bad idea. Graham could use some weaker opposition to get his confidence back and is probably a backup long term anyways, so I think if you start LaMelo it has to be with Rozier.

Edit: I absolutely think you can justify starting LaMelo based on his play, but I'm not really in that much of a hurry to do it yet. He seems comfortable and is growing playing his current role and his development is basically the only thing the team should care about at this point, so I would be fine with letting him build more consistency and confidence before throwing him in against starters full time.

[JMAC3]

One thing that I do not think gets said enough or acknowledged around basketball enough is there are more ways to be valuable then to be a starter. There are guys who can be awesome starters because they just stand there and do not need the ball and they will play hard and the team has enough scoring around them to be awesome.

There is a ton of value in being an elite backup and being able to operate an elite second unit, or be able to make a second unit good enough on offense that you can play the Martin Twins or Biz. If Graham turns out to be that guy then I am super happy to have gotten him in the second round still and he is probably worth a 4/40 still.

Whereas LaMelo is an opportunistic scorer, great passer, great rebounder, good defender... all those things fit better with a starting unit in my mind. Regardless if LaMelo is better today or Graham is better today, Graham is 6th man Archetype and LaMelo is a better version of his brother. Graham will get more shots on the second unit, which I think is what he is. He is a scoring guard.

[luciano-davidwesley]

Devonte burst onto the scene last year and he was figured out by defenses around December 2019. He hasn't added any strings to his bow and is limited physically so he's still struggling.

I think it's pretty straightforward. H's a good backup but probably not going to be more than that.

[fatlever]

i dont disagree with grahams ideal role being that of 6th man/backup pg. he is not starter quality on playoff level team.

[HornetJail]

Devonte's 1st 10 games of the season:

10.9ppg, 6.5apg, 26.9/30.3/81.5 shooting (~42 TS%)

Devonte's next 11 games:

17.5ppg, 5.7apg, 40.9/40.2/73.5 shooting (~57 TS%)

This dude is a roller coaster for sure, but the talent is very clearly there. Just needs to gain some consistency.

[Rich4114]

Devonte is just one dimensional. You make it tough for him to get a three off and he’s got nothing else. If that is the case, he probably needs to play more of a specialist role and likely off the bench when we need three point shooting or end of game situations when we need guys out there who can hit clutch threes. I sort of feel the same about Terry. Those guys are more redundant than I originally thought. I don’t think we can start/feature both over the other guys on this roster all of the time like we do.

[BigSlam]

No official word on the severity of Tae’s groin injury from last nights game, but he has been ruled out of tomorrow’s game.

Soft tissue injuries in the groin (or hamstrings) can be a real problem and require a LOT of rest to heal.

Hope Tae’s isn’t too bad.

[amcoolio]

No official word on the severity of Tae’s groin injury from last nights game, but he has been ruled out of tomorrow’s game.

Soft tissue injuries in the groin (or hamstrings) can be a real problem and require a LOT of rest to heal.

Hope Tae’s isn’t too bad.

Sucks, he was just starting to play well

But I can't help but feel Borrego is a bit relieved because he doesn't know who to bench out of the three guards

[euphorbus]

Devonte' is just one dimensional. You make it tough for him to get a three off and he’s got nothing else.

He is second on the team with 5.9 assists per game, after 6.0 for Ball. He's a big reason why the Hornets lead the league in assists per game.