Trade Talk (Part 17): Early Offseason Planning

[cmoss84]

I've got it! (and it's finals, so I have some time)
MN and PHO would have to do some fenagling do get under the 2nd apron (no idea what this would take), but you get the concept.
I've been itching to use sportrac for a nice 4 team trade again, so here you go.
Random thoughts: Phoenix seems to be in terrible shape no matter what, but this seems to benefit mostly everyone. I'm sure they can get someone better for KD, but who? I suppose you could switch NAZ and Robinson in this trade, if it works better. Mike could also go to Cleveland. Ware and Bam on the same team...for how long? Do they keep both? Miami would have an interesting mix of vets and young guys. Cleveland size would be massive.

Cleveland IN: Naz Reid, Cody Martin, Terry Rozier, #20 pick
Cleveland OUT: Darius Garland, Craig Porter Jr., #49 & #58
Depth: Mitchell-Hunter-Naz-Mobley-Allen
Rozier-Strus-Okoro-Wade-Rookie (#20)

Phoenix IN: Rudy Gobert, Duncan Robinson, #17
Phoenix OUT: Kevin Durant, Nick Richards, and Cody Martin
Depth: Beal (traded first?) Booker-Allen-O'Neale-Rudy
Robinson-Micic-Dunn-Ighodaro-Rookie (#17)

Miami IN: Julius Randle, Minott, Craig Porter Jr., #49 & #58
Miami OUT: Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, #20
Depth: Mitchell-Herro-Wiggins-Randle-Bam
Kyle-Highsmith-JJJ-Jovic-Ware

MN IN: Kevin Durant, Darius Garland, Nick Richards
MN OUT: Rudy, Randle, Naz, Minott and #17
Starting 5: Darius/Ant/Jaden/KD/Richards
PG: Darius-Mike-RD
SG: Ant-DD-Clark
SF: Jaden-TSJ-Miller
PF: KD-Jaden-Miller
C: Richards-Rookie (#31)-Garza

@ethomas this is very far fetched but what I came up with a while ago...

[shrink]

I think that the lack of cap space is going to make TRADES the standard method for teams to do transactions. Teams will be especially motivated to trade, with 13-14 teams in the west trying to get better, and maybe more eastern conference teams choosing to go for it while BOS is missing Tatum. I love IND, but I don’t think they scare off any possible contenders.

Without cap space to serve as the grease for trades, and the effects of the apron becoming more apparent, GMs are going to have to work together to get things done. I think we are going to see more and more complicated deals, with up to six teams in a single deal! That’s crazy! I also expect several of these complicated deals, including the movement of some very big names to their preferred destinations.

I think we will have an advantage over other GMs this summer with Tim Connelly, who is willing to think outside of the box.

[shrink]

In 2023, the CBA changed to allow teams to use the MLE like a TPE. With the non-taxpayer MLE at $14.1, this would mean that an every non-taxpayer has an automatic mechanism to trade for Donte DiVncenzo.

In today’s world of aprons, Donte clearly has value with two more years at $12 a piece. He has value to us. But we could also use him as a trade chip, for financial relief plus a pick, cheaper prospect or useful cheap vet. The financial relief could allow us to keep all three of our free agents as well, particularly NAW as a replacement.

I could see this as being a choice between trading DDV for profit plus keeping NAW, or keeping DDV and letting NAW walk for nothing. If he doesn’t get offers more than the MLE, he can simply sign with the best one as a free agent - no S&T.

What teams could use DDV the most? Sounds like the Magic?

[Norseman79]

Here's a wild one....

MN in - Murray, Durant, Williams
Out - Dillingham, Reid, Randle, Gobert

Lakers in Gobert, Okoge
Out Vando, Knecht, Reaves, Kleiber

Hornets in Reaves
Out Williams, draft picks

Pelicans in Reid, Kleiber, Dillingham
Out Murray

Suns in Randle, Vando, Knecht, draft picks
Out Durant

Works financially lol

PG Murray, Conley
SG Ant, DD, Clark
SF McDaniels, TSJ
PF Durant, (Asa Newell 17), Miller
C. Williams, (Kalkbrenner 31), Garza

[shrink]

Gobert would look so good with Luka tossing him lobs!

[Note30]

Here's a wild one....

MN in - Murray, Durant, Williams
Out - Dillingham, Reid, Randle, Gobert

Lakers in Gobert, Okoge
Out Vando, Knecht, Reaves, Kleiber

Hornets in Reaves
Out Williams, draft picks

Pelicans in Reid, Kleiber, Dillingham
Out Murray

Suns in Randle, Vando, Knecht, draft picks
Out Durant

Works financially lol

PG Murray, Conley
SG Ant, DD, Clark
SF McDaniels, TSJ
PF Durant, (Asa Newell 17), Miller
C. Williams, (Kalkbrenner 31), Garza

Don't want any part of Murray, if there was another PG sure.

[winforlose]

Here's a wild one....

MN in - Murray, Durant, Williams
Out - Dillingham, Reid, Randle, Gobert

Lakers in Gobert, Okoge
Out Vando, Knecht, Reaves, Kleiber

Hornets in Reaves
Out Williams, draft picks

Pelicans in Reid, Kleiber, Dillingham
Out Murray

Suns in Randle, Vando, Knecht, draft picks
Out Durant

Works financially lol

PG Murray, Conley
SG Ant, DD, Clark
SF McDaniels, TSJ
PF Durant, (Asa Newell 17), Miller
C. Williams, (Kalkbrenner 31), Garza

Murray will miss most of the season. KD is a one year rental with a huge potential for being too expensive to keep. The two go together like oil and water.

[BlacJacMac]

Here's a wild one....

MN in - Murray, Durant, Williams
Out - Dillingham, Reid, Randle, Gobert

Lakers in Gobert, Okoge
Out Vando, Knecht, Reaves, Kleiber

Hornets in Reaves
Out Williams, draft picks

Pelicans in Reid, Kleiber, Dillingham
Out Murray

Suns in Randle, Vando, Knecht, draft picks
Out Durant

Works financially lol

PG Murray, Conley
SG Ant, DD, Clark
SF McDaniels, TSJ
PF Durant, (Asa Newell 17), Miller
C. Williams, (Kalkbrenner 31), Garza

Murray will miss most of the season. KD is a one year rental with a huge potential for being too expensive to keep. The two go together like oil and water.

Not to mention Williams has injury concerns and is one of the worst defensive centers in the game.

[Domejandro]

The trade that I keep coming back to (if Rudy gets moved) is #17 and removing protections from the 2029 FRP (1-5) for Walker Kessler. It isn't thrilling or anything, but it keeps the general structure of Minnesota's defense intact.

[TimberKat]

Now that NYK is interested in Finch, how about Thib + 2 1st for Finch

[BlacJacMac]

Now that NYK is interested in Finch, how about Thib + 2 1st for Finch

The Knicks literally don't have any 1st Round picks they can trade. Their next available on is 2033 - and that's too far off to be traded.

They do have the ability to swap their first-round picks in 2026 and 2030.

[shrink]

I think that it will be hard to improve the team through trade, because there are very few players on the Wolves that have more value to other teams than they do our own.

This may seem a strange comment, with 29 other options out there, but home teams have advantages. Guys may be familiar playing with their teammates, so there is no learning curve. Players may have friendships with teammates off the court, or like the organization or coach. Some like the city, and don’t want to move their family. Some even will take an hometown discount to stay, and there is less risk they walk for nothing in free agency. Others have local fan support, and have been marketed heavily with their home team. Some are on this team to fill a role, and they do such a good job, the team doesn’t have someone else for that role. They may be on the team because they fit the GM’s plan.

In my mind, the list of “May be more valuable to you than us” is pretty short.

DiVincenzo might be on that list, though he is likely worth less after a mediocre season. We may have the guard depth to replace him cheaply. He could be a full-time starter elsewhere, I still love that contract.

Naz and NAW could have larger roles on other teams,

Young players may be more valuable on rebuilding teams, where they will get more minutes.

I think for other players, we need to see a very specific need. Is Gobert more valuable in ATL than here? Maybe.

[shrink]

I also wanted to mention that the old economic adage “buy low, sell high” isn’t always the best advice. A player who is going up may still go higher, and a player who is trending down shouldn’t always be held onto, hoping he will bounce back. Sometimes the value will continue to decline, and the predictions for the future should be used to determine all buy/sell decisions, not whether they were higher or lower in the past.

The Wolves have had several buy low candidates raise their value. Ant, McDaniels, Naz, NAW, Randle’s second half, Clark, TSJ. They also have ones that are likely lower now than when they acquired them, like DDV, Conley, Dillingham, Minnot. But we should only value players on what we expect in the future for them.

[cmoss84]

Atl: Rudy, Cam Johnson, RD
Mia: Randle
Brk: Trae, Duncan Robinson, Minott
MN: Ware and Daniels

Resign Naz. Extend Daniels and Clark.
Mike/Daniels/draft pick or FA
Ant/DD/Clark
Jaden/TSJ
Naz/draft pick or FA/Miller
Ware/draft pick or FA

[FrenchMinnyFan]

The trade that I keep coming back to (if Rudy gets moved) is #17 and removing protections from the 2029 FRP (1-5) for Walker Kessler. It isn't thrilling or anything, but it keeps the general structure of Minnesota's defense intact.

Agree. Kessler is a young and will improve. I watch several Jazz games and he seems not 100% focus at times. But he play in a bad team and have potential for sure.

[Neeva]

Yuck Kessler will soon be a very overpaid and average starting center.

[winforlose]

I don’t think Ant wants a Walker Kessler like big. Ant seems to want a run a gun, five out style lineup. Kessler would be another clog the paint big which makes life harder for Ant to get to the basket. This is why trading Karl without getting a shooting big back was a tough move. Randle is a ln inconsistent 3 point shooter with many years being under 35%. Randle and Naz were both used as small ball Cs, which worked against small teams and who lacked talent (LAL and GSW.) But, put them up against a real defense with legit size and depth like OKC, and you saw what happens. A Myles Turner type big is important for us. We will lose rim protection, and might lose some perimeter contain, (cannot press up as much without Rudy behind you.) But Rudy’s rebounding and offensive failures in the playoffs might force a change.

[minimus]

I found this trade: Gobert for Okongwu, Mann and 13th pick.

I'd do it as three way trade:

ATL IN: Gobert
ATL OUT: Okongwu, Mann and 13th pick 2025

Why for ATL: improve defense, add size, get rid of Mann contract

BRO IN: Reid, Mann, 13th pick, Miller, Minott
BRO OUT: Cameron Johnson, 27th pick

Why for BRO: get Reid who can play next to Claxton, move up in draft, get multiple young players Mann, Miller and Minott who might need change of scenario

MIN IN: Okongwu, Cameron Johnson, 27th 2025 FRPs
MIN OUT: Gobert, Reid, Miller, Minott

Why for MIN: add Okongwu who can give 15-20 minutes of solid play at C, add Johnson who can be a more consistent scorer as Reid. Add two team friendly rookie contracts. Draft one of Sorber/Fleming/Essengue/Newell at 17th, two of Thiero/Wolf/Kalkbrenner/Beringer/Raynaud/Niederhauser at 27th and 31st. Resign Randle, at reasonable price

So final roster at the beginning of 2025-26 season could like

Okongwu/Sorber/Kalkbrenner
Randle/McDaniels/Thiero
McDaniels/Johnson/TJ
Edwards/Clark/TJ
DDV/Dillingham/Conley

[BlacJacMac]

I found this trade: Gobert for Okongwu, Mann and 13th pick.

I'd do it as three way trade:

ATL IN: Gobert
ATL OUT: Okongwu, Mann and 13th pick 2025

Why for ATL: improve defense, add size, get rid of Mann contract

BRO IN: Reid, Mann, 13th pick, Miller, Minott
BRO OUT: Cameron Johnson, 27th pick

Why for BRO: get Reid who can play next to Claxton, move up in draft, get multiple young players Mann, Miller and Minott who might need change of scenario

MIN IN: Okongwu, Cameron Johnson, 27th 2025 FRPs
MIN OUT: Gobert, Reid, Miller, Minott

Why for MIN: add Okongwu who can give 15-20 minutes of solid play at C, add Johnson who can be a more consistent scorer as Reid. Add two team friendly rookie contracts. Draft one of Sorber/Fleming/Essengue/Newell at 17th, two of Thiero/Wolf/Kalkbrenner/Beringer/Raynaud/Niederhauser at 27th and 31st. Resign Randle, at reasonable price

So final roster at the beginning of 2025-26 season could like

Okongwu/Sorber/Kalkbrenner
Randle/McDaniels/Thiero
McDaniels/Johnson/TJ
Edwards/Clark/TJ
DDV/Dillingham/Conley

I'd do it if we leave Brooklyn out. I feel like that's a massive overpay for Cam Johnson.

[minimus]

I'd do it if we leave Brooklyn out. I feel like that's a massive overpay for Cam Johnson.

Well, I think Johnson, Okongwu and 27th pick is the right price for Gobert, rights to re-sign Reid, Miller and Minott. In this case I'd definitely pay opportunity cost to consolidate reasonable contracts of DDV, Okongwu, Johnson and 17th, 27th and 31st around core of Edwards-McDaniels-Randle for next two years. Plus we keep Rob, TJ and Clark. In my opinion Johnson is not a starter in playoff team, but as 6th man he can be key piece of bench unit. I am okay to keep Reid at reasonable price as well, but I think at the moment Johnson is simply a better movement shooter and passer.