RealGM Top 100 List #15

[drza]

Vote: Barkley
Nomination: Nash

No one gonna stand up for Barkley or do I have to do it?

I'd love to see you do it. As you can tell from my last post, I'm pretty wide open right now as to who to vote for in this thread. A good case made for Barkley, or even Robinson or Petit, could be enough to get them further onto my radar.

[drza]

Oh yeah, and while my vote choice is difficult, my nomination is feeling more and more comfortable as when the time comes I'll be voting Pippen again. Don't count this as my official nomination, as I'll put that with my official vote, but that's the direction I'm moving.

[mysticbb]

How is your case for Nowitski v. Pettit? . . . . also a stretch the floor 4 with great size, but one with advantages in foul drawing (large), rebounding (less so), and defense (by rep). Both have one superlative finals that won a ring; Nowitzki outside that one famous game 7 is probably the better clutch player and the more efficient from the floor relative to the league (though not necessarily when foul drawing is added in). Anything I missed?

Well, Nowitzki has the longevity argument for him and the consistency in playoff performances vs. regular season performances. Pettit really performed worse in the playoffs against better teams, which seems to be a common theme for a lot of players, but it gets extreme in Pettit's case. When we look at the average drop of PER and WS/48 (year by year) we get 0.78 for Pettit, meaning only 78% of his regular season performance level.

The foul drawing thing is included in measures like TS%, thus it makes not much sense to include it again. But when we look at this Nowitzki only trails Pettit in this category in the regular season, but it becomes a wash in the playoffs.

I like looking at the playoffs in comparison to the regular season, because I think in the playoffs everyone tries to be at their best, that has an effect in two directions, the player itself is performing at his highest level and the opponents too. During the regular season we can see how players beat up on weaker teams, while having more difficulties against better teams. It looks like that was the case for Pettit.

Obviously Nowitzki is the better shooter and more efficient scorer in comparison to league average and overall. Nowitzki played at least as good while giving me already half season more of this. But Bob Pettit has indeed a really good argument, a much better one than say Moses Malone. I'm surprised that people still just look at his 20/15 seasons and decide he must have been good, while ignoring how small of an impact he really had even in his peak seasons. It seems like one of those things people have a hard time to accept. One of the reason might also be the overrating of offensive rebounding. Better offensive rebounding has only a small positive impact on offense while in recent years we have a negative correlation to the scoring margin. Teams seems to recognize that going back defensively is the better strategy. That isn't surprising, because even as the best offensive rebounder he will still only get around 1.5 rebounds per 10 possible, in most cases the offensive rebounder is losing the battle and is defensively in a bad position. Moses Malone's biggest argument seems to be his offensive rebounding, an ability which didn't help his team as much as many people seem to think. That is good reflected in the rather small difference he made to the team's overall performance level.

And we have a very strong argument for Nowitzki's high impact. Since 2002/03 we have the Mavericks without Nowitzki being at -4.2 per 48 minutes, with Nowitzki +8.2. The presence of Nowitzki makes a 29 win team without him on the court a 61 wins team with him. If we compare that with the numbers for James without his rookie season (he was clearly weaker in his rookie season and it doesn't make much sense to hold that against him), we are getting +6.7 with him and -5.6 without him. Basically the same difference Nowitzki made, while Nowitzki was pushing the team to a higher level with him.
To show something I made an argument for Nowitzki over James before, we can take the two best seasons for both of the players out and we get: Nowitzki with +10.9 Net and James with +10.0 Net. While we have 7 years for Nowitzki in this and 5 years for James. We can see the higher peak level for James by this comparison, but we also see that Nowitzki gives us basically the same for two more years while we also know that it wasn't any different in 2002 and 2001 for Nowitzki. That makes a difference of 4 years. We see the difference of 2.5 seasons (17 WS seasons) in Win Shares in the regular season while Nowitzki is also much closer to James in advanced metrics in the playoffs. I don't see how someone can ignore the big difference in longevity here for the higher peak level.

People seem to accept impact by ballhandling players, they also grew an understanding of non-boxscore related impact by a defensive player, but it seems like they have a really hard time to accept non-boxscore related impact by an offensive player due to better floor spacing and player movement. The integration of the ability to play basketball within a team concept is really important for the impact a player can have.

When I have to bring the players in order I would say:

#15 Jerry West
#16 Dirk Nowitzki
#17 Charles Barkley
#18 Bob Pettit
#19 LeBron James
#20 Moses Malone

Btw, my vote: Jerry West

Nomination: Elgin Baylor

[ronnymac2]

Too tired to overthink anything.

Vote: Jerry West

Nominate: Elgin Baylor

Patrick Ewing needs to get nominated.

Elgin Baylor is a superior player to John Havlicek and Scottie Pippen. Baylor and West were an amazingly talented duo, but they weren't right for each other in that particular era. They'd be awesome in this era, but not in the 1960's. Despite the flaw in their dynamic and the flaw in L.A.'s team build, that team pushed the greatest dynasty in sports history to the brink multiple times on the backs of West and Baylor.

If Elgin got to play with somebody as good as prime Bill Russell...

[ElGee]

Here is how I have the voting shaping up at the halfway mark. Someone correct me if they find any mistakes . . .

VOTE
West -- Doctor MJ, penbeast0, cpower, Dr Mufasa , therealbig3, shawngoat23, Jay From LA, pancakes3
Moses – JordansBulls, FJS
LeBron – ElGee, Gongxi

NOMINATION
Nash -- Doctor MJ, ElGee,
Pippen -- penbeast0, Fencer reregistered, Jay From LA
Drexler -- JordansBulls
Havlicek – cpower, shawngoat23, pancakes3
Stockton – FJS
Baylor – Dr Mufasa, Gongxi, therealbig3

NOT ON LIST
Pistol Pete Vecsey, the_prophet

Just to put something into perspective on West -- he missed the PS 3 times in his 13 years. That's a 10-year healthy career to LeBron James' 8. Everyone has made it very clear how much they value peak/prime performance when periods are comparable like that...just saying there isn't this giant perceived gap that exists in the career value of LBJ and West.

Obviously if people don't "trust" James that's well...let's just say sometimes I wonder if we did these projects after G3 of the 93 ECF if Jordan would be outside the top-10.

[lorak]

According to B-R, Ewing anchored the best defense in NBA history (93 Knicks).

In fact Ewing anchored two (!) of absolute top defensive teams in history.

Since 1974 only 4 teams had drtg below league average -8 or lower:

2004 Spurs -8.8
2008 Celtics -8.6
1993 Knicks -8.3
1994 Knicks -8.1

And according to estimations before 1974 only Russell's teams achieved that mark.

[dan_atko97]

Vote- LeBron
Nominate- Patrick Ewing
was a toss up between Ewing and Drexler but i think it came down to Ewing being more important to his team :/

[mysticbb]

Just to put something into perspective on West -- he missed the PS 3 times in his 13 years. That's a 10-year healthy career to LeBron James' 8. Everyone has made it very clear how much they value peak/prime performance when periods are comparable like that...just saying there isn't this giant perceived gap that exists in the career value of LBJ and West.

I think you are making a mistake here by running into one of the congnitive biases you wanted to avoid. It seems like you are interpreting every possible data in a way that it favors James. James didn't have 8 years which I would count, he has 7. His rookie season was nothing special except for the hype and some raw boxscore numbers, but impactwise he was way closer to the average than everything else.

Additonal to that it seems like you are not really evaluating his play, but rather some hypothetical situation in which James is surrounded with the best fitting talent. The thing is that this best fitting talent is not capable of taking over games when James struggles. James takes every ballhandler out of his comfort zone by not being able to play effective off the ball. That's why there is such a difference between Wade's performance with and without James on the court. Wade didn't get better during that time, he got worse. James occupied an area in which Wade has his strenth, that makes him less effective. That why the Heat had so much trouble scoring in closing minutes in the finals. You want to chalk that up with luck for the Mavericks, but that wasn't just luck.
The Heat couldn't maximize their talent with James, because the talent they have has strength in areas in which James also has strength. For 989 minutes last season without James the Heat had +0.9 per 48 minutes. During the 3985 minutes with James the Heat had +7.8 per 48 minutes. James didn't lift them as much as he lifted teams in previous seasons, he was worse than that, and the reason is not just the not good fitting talent, it is also a flaw in James' game, his inability to be effective without the ball makes it a problem to maximize talent. Something Jordan for example didn't have, he played very well off the ball, that made it possible to give Pippen a role in which he had much more strength than in a role as a pure scorer off the ball. Do you think James could have maximized Pippen as much as Jordan?

We are seeing a flaw in his game, in an area you hardly recognise. Your focus on the on-ball action leds you believe you are correct about your judgement about the NBA finals. That's the reason why you didn't question the numbers Hollinger presented regarding the free throws, because that was fitting into your own belief that the Mavericks rather won due to luck. Can you explain why the Mavericks got outscored by 27 points per 48 minutes during the finals when Nowitzki wasn't on the court? Why did they outscore the Heat with Nowitzki on the court by 8 points per 48 minutes? Do you honestly believe that was just luck or coincidence?

When we take out James' and Nowitzki's two best seasons we are getting a similar impact player for 5 years in James and 9! years in Nowitzki. You want to ignore that, because you have the feeling that James impact in 2009 and 2010 was so huge that it overcomes the difference in longevity.

Obviously if people don't "trust" James that's well...let's just say sometimes I wonder if we did these projects after G3 of the 93 ECF if Jordan would be outside the top-10.

Your analogy is a fail here, because Jordan in 1993 had already two championships with dominant performances. James has now several questionable performances in elimination games. That is the difference here.

[pancakes3]

The LeBron advocates make some sense to me, because a) I'm of the school that thinks that his failures are more circumstantial narrative than damning indictments, b) I have no doubt that had this vote been taken on June 1st he'd already be in by now and c) I also have no doubt that if this vote is re-taken in 3 years he'd be in by now. But all of that said...the vote wasn't taken 2 months ago, nor is this 3 years from now...and I have to evaluate him on his current resume, which also has holes that bother me enough to give me pause against his current competition.

i highly doubt that he would have been voted in pre-finals. his biggest feather in his cap is the '09 postseason where he put up historically jordan-good numbers yet only got to the conference finals and lost in 6. he does seem to have malone-esque consistency thus far, ridiculously high APM, the 2nd highest career PER in NBA history, and 9 years worth of 27/7/7 averages.That said, i can't reconcile him being a top 15 or even top 20 player in the game when he consistently loses in the conference semifinals. i mean, that really puts him as our generation's Ewing.

what i really don't like about putting Lebron so high is the way he plays. he's massive yet the only way he can be effective is by dominating the ball. the heat would be so much better if he would move off ball for a variety of reasons.
1 - it would allow them to run a pick and roll game between him and wade, which would be virtually unstoppable.
2 - it would improve their offensive rebounding because their sf/pf (lebron) would be in position for boards instead of fading away for a contested jumper.
3 - lebron's speed/quickness advantage would be that much more effective as a cutter because his defender would be forced to play him close instead of giving him cushion.
4 - there's one less body to set screens for wade, and to a lesser extent 3-pt-shootout-champ James Jones.
5 - it would tire out opposing PFs more, making them less effective on the other end of the court. it's a relatively easy job checking Lebron when he starts iso-ing. leave him cushion, funnel him to the sideline/baselines, and hope he doesn't outquick you in the 3-4 seconds it takes for him to start and finish his drive. take that compared to ~15 seconds of bodying him up, chasing him along the baseline, fighting through screens, switching onto a smaller/quicker player after screens, recovering, etc? toss in a zone scheme?

see, these little inflexibilities in LBJ's game just makes him incomplete and flawed as a player to me. he's not a pure pg like magic, thus he really shouldn't be dominating the ball so much as a player. he's got super size, super speed, super heft, and the best combo-guard in recent memory on his team. why not move off-ball? because he can't. because the second he moves off-ball he'll be rendered useless because all he knows how to do is to dip his shoulder, crab dribble, draw fouls, or kick it out to a shooter. there is no vision, no sense of team, no willingness to do the dirty work, and i just can't in good conscience vote someone like that into the top 15... for the children.

maybe in 3 years where he continues his ironman streak of 27/7/7 seasons, has the occasional dazzling post-season numbers i could change my mind sure. maybe toss in some additional hardware, and a ring or two (hey, i can't argue his style if he's got the goods)? yeah. sure. i can see him cracking the top 15. but to say he was a shoo-in especially off the heels of "the Decision" ? doubtful is an understatement.

[semi-sentient]

+1

[penbeast0]

It's easier to compare Havlicek and Pippen than either and Baylor because Baylor was a first option (he always took more shots/min than West even when West led the team in scoring) and a combo forward who played inside a lot whereas Havlicek and Pippen were very similar players with similar strengths. I am going to post a simple box score analysis because I'm not as bright as some of our posters who understand the more advanced formulas but willing to be contradicted:

Scoring
For their careers Havlicek scored more (20.8 to 16.1 or, using per 36 which is more accurate, 20.4 to 16.6). However, Havlicek played in a faster paced system and although TrueLAFan has posted pretty convincing data in the Statistical Analysis board to indicate that stars tend to get their points regardless of pace, that implies that the 2-12 guys on the roster don't. So, not having cumulative pace, I will take a median pace for each career as a rough estimate. Boston games in 1970 averaged 115.9pts (and the Russell years were known for the Celtics high pace as Russell's outlet passing pushed the fast break); Chicago games in 1995 averaged 106.9pts. Adjusting Chicago's pace up to Boston's still gives Pippen only 17.5ppg so Havlicek still scores more.

Efficiency
Looking at true shooting percentages, Pippen averages .536 for his career while Havlicek is only at .492. However, in Havlicek's era the efficiency numbers were lower without the 3 point line and other rule changes opening up the offenses. The NBA in 1995 had an efg of .500 and Pippen's career ftm is 2.7/36 as he shoots less FT at a lower percentage than Havlicek. The NBA in 1970 had an average efg of .460 and Hondo's career ftm is 4.2/36, over 1.5XPippen's. This is calculated into ts% but listed because B-R.com only shows leaguewide efg -- again, these are just rough comps to see if the two players are in the same ballpark or significantly apart. So, adjusting the ts% for era bias, Havlicek's ts% for comparisom sake adjusts up to .535 or almost equal to Pippen's. (I admit to being surprised!)

Defense
Both were considered outstanding defenders. Pippen was on the all defense team 8x1st, 2x2nd, Havlicek 5x1st, 3x2nd and I have generally gotten the impression that Pippen was a bit more respected. (Still can't get over Bill Russell saying that he had to switch onto Chet Walker because the Celtics didn't have a defender that could cover him when Havlicek and Sanders both got into the HOF to a large part on defense, lol)

Rebounding
Pippen is at 6.6 reb/36 for his career, Havlicek at 6.2 reb/36 -- and this while Havlicek played in a higher paced lower efficiency era with more rebounds available. Clear edge Pippen

Playmaking
Pippen is at 5.2 ast/36 for his career, Havlicek at 4.8. While Pippen is more famous for being a distributor and played in the slower paced era, assists were appreciably less frequent in the 60s before the rules were changed and Havlicek played off the ball more. If anything, the edge goes to Havlicek here (again, surprising me).

I had thought that Pippen scored less but rebounded and assisted more with greater efficiency -- it seems closer than that with Havlicek roughly even on efficiency and playmaking. So, it comes down to Havlicek's greater scoring v. Pippen's rebounding.

To my surprise, instead of creating an argument for Pippen, I think Havlicek's career is actually the more impressive looking back statistically.

But what about Elgin Baylor v. Havlicek? Baylor was generally considered the better player by his peers (as people with higher pts/reb numbers tend to be). Havlicek is clearly the better defender and has a playmaking edge. Baylor is clearly the better rebounder and scorer, the only question is Baylor's efficiency. However, over their careers, Baylor is MORE efficient than Havlicek even though the early part of his career was played in a much less efficient league than the late part of Havlicek's where they didn't overlap.

CHANGING MY NOMINATION TO ELGIN BAYLOR

[penbeast0]

. . .
see, these little inflexibilities in LBJ's game just makes him incomplete and flawed as a player to me. he's not a pure pg like magic, thus he really shouldn't be dominating the ball so much as a player. he's got super size, super speed, super heft, and the best combo-guard in recent memory on his team. why not move off-ball? because he can't. because the second he moves off-ball he'll be rendered useless because all he knows how to do is to dip his shoulder, crab dribble, draw fouls, or kick it out to a shooter. there is no vision, no sense of team, no willingness to do the dirty work, and i just can't in good conscience vote someone like that into the top 15... for the children. . .

Do you have the same issues about supporting DWade for the top 25 since he also can't play off-ball with equal success?

[An Unbiased Fan]

Vote: Jerry West

Nomination: John Stockton

Will try to get into the conversation later if I can find the time.

[Baller 24]

Vote: Moses Malone

Nominate: Patrick Ewing

We might even have 4-5 PGs nominated in the next 7-8 nominations it seems like. For the record, I've got Nash, Kidd, GP, Fraizer, & Isiah all ahead of Stockton, by a very clear margin. The last two projects I've felt Stockton's gone too high, hopefully this time around there are more arguments against him going in the top 30/35, since we're examining peak a little extra carefully this time around.

[colts18]

Vote: Moses
Nominate: Baylor

[RoyceDa59]

Moses Malone

Steve Nash

[penbeast0]

I think Ewing and hopefully Gilmore get nominated before some of the PGs, maybe Dwight too. McHale might be showing his face, our three SFs are in there, Drexler and the five PGs . . . and that's just off the top of my head. For what it's worth, I think Payton should go before any of the others that haven't gone (Frazier is already nominated) as there are two halves of the bsketball game and people tend to overrate offense and underrate defense because it's hard to show staistically.

Now, of course, one of our stat smart types will show numbers that imply that Payton wasn't much of a defensive player . . .

[Fencer reregistered]

Both were considered outstanding defenders. Pippen was on the all defense team 8x1st, 2x2nd, Havlicek 5x1st, 3x2nd

Note that the all-defense team didn't exist for the first part of Havlicek's career.

[Fencer reregistered]

I think Ewing and hopefully Gilmore get nominated before some of the PGs, maybe Dwight too. McHale might be showing his face,

McHale has some longevity issues, but I'd definitely like to see him in there in the next round of bigs. He was one of the great big-man scorers ever, no matter what the "volume is everything" crowd says. He was a top defender, covering three positions. Bird (#5) on our list and McHale led a team that was extremely competitive with the one led by Kareem and Magic (#3 and #4 on our list).

[lorak]

I don't know how to vote this round, but seem West will win (12 votes already, Moses is 2nd with 6) so my vote wouldn't change anything.

Nomination: Ewing and I hope in next thread more people will vote for him.