Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV "Re-Building" Edition)

[PeePee la Fritz]

Eric Pincus
about an hour ago
Kupchak gave respect to Rob Hennigan - who frustrated Mitch, as he's supposed to as an opposing GM. Mitch said he suspects Philly was Orlando's plan for some time but they were just waiting for Harkless to get past the 30-day no-trade restriction. Kupchak thought it was dead until recently then it moved quickly to deal. Orlando brought in Philly and Denver. Mitch also said he's done with home runs for the offseason

So looks like Harkless was Henny's target all along. He must have been way higher on him then any of Houston's young guys. Makes me excited to see this kid play over the next couple years! I am hoping he turns out to be a Rudy Gay/Danny Granger type

+1

That's a bit encouraging. Did Moe ever work out for OKC or Detroit?

I'll try to find out, no idea off the top of my head. My eye for the past 2-3 years has been on Shabaaz. If Orlando can grab him in the draft next year I'd be stoked. Shabaaz, Harkless, Nicholson, Vucevic is not a bad group of young guys to start with. And Afflalo is very tradable (or a great vet guy for the rooks). He is extremely highly thought of around the league. And the tpe gives a quality gm a lot of flexibility. So we will see. I am gonna be patient with Hennigan. I know you are one of the few who are with me on that @VGOSWAMI

[TDJacksonville]

my take: a few years down the road bynum will be missing games on a max deal as philly fights for a playoff spot. denver also fights to get to the second round. orlando will have 2 top 5 picks as harkless and nicholson develop into great players

Yep.

adams and wiggins will be the 2 picks

[Ahmadab]

I really lightened up. This will be a fun team. All is this board to remain active. I don't want to scream at Baby for taking contested mid range shots on my own.

[cvMagic]

I'll never warm up to this trade because it accomplished very little outside of ending the Dwight Howard saga.

Exhibit A -
We added additional salary rather than clearing cap space. Afflalo (4/$31M) and Harrington (3/$14M) replace JRich (3/$18.6M) and Doo-hon (2/$4.75M). Net gain of ~$22M, which $19.5M ($11.5M in '14/'15; $8M in '15/'16) is split between the final two years.

Exhibit B -
The three first round draft picks are designed to land outside of the lottery, which makes it tougher to draft a star ala the OKC model. The GSW second rounder isn't as attractive as it once was; that Warriors team has vastly improved.

Exhibit C -
The young talent leaves a lot to be desired. Vucevic & Harkless look like intriguing prospects, and of course adding Eyenga sure doesn't hurt. But Harkless is the wild card here; if he becomes a star this trade will look much, much better. However, if his ceiling maxes at Trevor Ariza as projected, what makes him much different than, say, Terrance Jones?

At the end of the day it's your prerogative if you choose to justify the move. I definitely won't; not because we traded Howard, but because we accomplished nothing short of igniting the match and waiting for the bomb to detonate in our faces.

Riddle me this: If we let Howard walk and remained status quo, what would our cap situation look like in 2013/2014?

Around $36M with 8 players under contract.

Now after this trade? Try ~$44M with 10 players; 11 and $46M if Eyenga's TO is picked up.

Essentially we ridded ourselves of $7.7M (JRich/Doo-hon) next season and inherited $14.75M (Afflalo/Harrington/Harkless/Vucevic) with potential for almost $17M (Eyenga).

But wait, that $17.8M TPE has to account for something, right? Well, yeah, but we could have dumped Howard to Houston for picks only and received an even bigger TPE. Hell, that might've been a better trade anyway, seeing how the Toronto and Dallas picks are arguably more attractive pieces than what we received.

So, if the purpose of this trade was to salary dump, Hennigan failed. If the purpose was to acquire a plethora of valuable draft picks, Hennigan failed once more. If the purpose was to acquire a prospect like Harkless, why not just trade up for him on draft night when he slipped out of the lottery or simply draft T-Jones? Again, Hennigan failed.

Now, if none of the objectives were met with this trade, what exactly was the purpose? Appeasing Howard?

This is why Orlando is the laughing stock of the league. The net value of this trade is in the negative.

One of the best posts I've read yet.
Didn't want it to die at the end of the last thread.

[The Effect]

Couple things

Why do people care about the protections on those draft picks? Look at the teams we are getting them from, they are gonna be **** picks no matter what. Its not like those picks would ever be top 5 picks anyways.

Also, Why do people think afflalo is just a through in that isnt in the long term plans? Not only was he basically the centerpiece of the trade, but was drafted by our assistant GM. To me that says that he was a guy they targeted and have big plans for. He obviously knows the kid and what hes all about and wants to build around him, he also seems to fit the model of henny wants. This guy is going to be our starting SG for a long time unless we draft Shabaaz next year

[Nyce_1]

Who cares about the protection on the picks. They're still better than what the nets were if offering. And with the scouts we currently have, I have no doubt we'll get decent-to-good players with EVERY pick. Look what the Spurs have continuously done with their picks late in the round. Look what we did this year at #19 & #49. Granted, they haven't played yet but I trust we'll actually get value from those protected picks.

[cvMagic]

my take: a few years down the road bynum will be missing games on a max deal as philly fights for a playoff spot. denver also fights to get to the second round. orlando will have 2 top 5 picks as harkless and nicholson develop into great players

Yep.

Are you really hoping for two top 5 picks 6 years from now.
And look at the protections on the picks.
That can never happen.

[Darth Magic]

I'll never warm up to this trade because it accomplished very little outside of ending the Dwight Howard saga.

Exhibit A -
We added additional salary rather than clearing cap space. Afflalo (4/$31M) and Harrington (3/$14M) replace JRich (3/$18.6M) and Doo-hon (2/$4.75M). Net gain of ~$22M, which $19.5M ($11.5M in '14/'15; $8M in '15/'16) is split between the final two years.

Exhibit B -
The three first round draft picks are designed to land outside of the lottery, which makes it tougher to draft a star ala the OKC model. The GSW second rounder isn't as attractive as it once was; that Warriors team has vastly improved.

Exhibit C -
The young talent leaves a lot to be desired. Vucevic & Harkless look like intriguing prospects, and of course adding Eyenga sure doesn't hurt. But Harkless is the wild card here; if he becomes a star this trade will look much, much better. However, if his ceiling maxes at Trevor Ariza as projected, what makes him much different than, say, Terrance Jones?

At the end of the day it's your prerogative if you choose to justify the move. I definitely won't; not because we traded Howard, but because we accomplished nothing short of igniting the match and waiting for the bomb to detonate in our faces.

Riddle me this: If we let Howard walk and remained status quo, what would our cap situation look like in 2013/2014?

Around $36M with 8 players under contract.

Now after this trade? Try ~$44M with 10 players; 11 and $46M if Eyenga's TO is picked up.

Essentially we ridded ourselves of $7.7M (JRich/Doo-hon) next season and inherited $14.75M (Afflalo/Harrington/Harkless/Vucevic) with potential for almost $17M (Eyenga).

But wait, that $17.8M TPE has to account for something, right? Well, yeah, but we could have dumped Howard to Houston for picks only and received an even bigger TPE. Hell, that might've been a better trade anyway, seeing how the Toronto and Dallas picks are arguably more attractive pieces than what we received.

So, if the purpose of this trade was to salary dump, Hennigan failed. If the purpose was to acquire a plethora of valuable draft picks, Hennigan failed once more. If the purpose was to acquire a prospect like Harkless, why not just trade up for him on draft night when he slipped out of the lottery or simply draft T-Jones? Again, Hennigan failed.

Now, if none of the objectives were met with this trade, what exactly was the purpose? Appeasing Howard?

This is why Orlando is the laughing stock of the league. The net value of this trade is in the negative.

One of the best posts I've read yet.
Didn't want it to die at the end of the last thread.

It's actully pretty flawed logic...

[Def Swami]

I'll try to find out, no idea off the top of my head. My eye for the past 2-3 years has been on Shabaaz. If Orlando can grab him in the draft next year I'd be stoked. Shabaaz, Harkless, Nicholson, Vucevic is not a bad group of young guys to start with. And Afflalo is very tradable (or a great vet guy for the rooks). He is extremely highly thought of around the league. And the tpe gives a quality gm a lot of flexibility. So we will see. I am gonna be patient with Hennigan. I know you are one of the few who are with me on that @VGOSWAMI

I too have been on the Shabazz bandwagon recently. Especially since the Adidas Nations event this past week. Word from spectators was that Noel still has a lot to learn. He clearly isn't as good as Anthony Davis. He may have the length and defensive acumen, but Davis was a surprisingly skilled offensive player too. People forget Davis played point guard in high school. Noel game reminds me too much of Hasheem Thabeet right now. Here was a recap:

Nerlens Noel F 6’11” Kentucky Fr. -- 2g, 26 mpg, 6.0 ppg, 4-6 fg, 66.7 fg% 4-8 ft, 3.5 rpg, 4 blk, 5 to

Noel got blasted for his performance at Nations and decided to shut things down after the second day. But in fairness he's been working on his academics all summer in order to get eligible and that focus has clearly taken away from his basketball development. I expect him to be improved the next time we see him (in November), as he'll have the benefit of the UK coaching staff working with him on his weight training and his post game. His obsession with facing the basket and working on his ball handling needs to be junked in favor of adding core strength and developing a back to the basket game. He shows some touch on his shot but just doesn't have any muscle memory on any post moves, and appears completely lost attempting to create points in the paint. The overly reactive scouts in atendance were ready to move him out of their lottery, as he even drew comparisons to Samuel Dalembert, but it's important to keep perspective. This year's draft is extremely weak, so Noel remains in our top 5, despite a very average showing.

Shabazz to me seems like the guy with greater star potential. His game reminds me of a young D-Wade. He's definitely more polished offensively. I think he passes Zeller once he starts playing some games in college. Going to be a fun year of watching a lot of UCLA and UK.

And yes, I'm patient, but the trade left a bad taste in my mouth. Mainly the quality of draft picks we got. I think Afflalo and Harrington are assets more so than key foundations.

[Darth Magic]

Who cares about the protection on the picks. They're still better than what the nets were if offering. And with the scouts we currently have, I have no doubt we'll get decent-to-good players with EVERY pick. Look what the Spurs have continuously done with their picks late in the round. Look what we did this year at #19 & #49. Granted, they haven't played yet but I trust we'll actually get value from those protected picks.

This

[PeePee la Fritz]

I'll never warm up to this trade because it accomplished very little outside of ending the Dwight Howard saga.

Exhibit A -
We added additional salary rather than clearing cap space. Afflalo (4/$31M) and Harrington (3/$14M) replace JRich (3/$18.6M) and Doo-hon (2/$4.75M). Net gain of ~$22M, which $19.5M ($11.5M in '14/'15; $8M in '15/'16) is split between the final two years.

Exhibit B -
The three first round draft picks are designed to land outside of the lottery, which makes it tougher to draft a star ala the OKC model. The GSW second rounder isn't as attractive as it once was; that Warriors team has vastly improved.

Exhibit C -
The young talent leaves a lot to be desired. Vucevic & Harkless look like intriguing prospects, and of course adding Eyenga sure doesn't hurt. But Harkless is the wild card here; if he becomes a star this trade will look much, much better. However, if his ceiling maxes at Trevor Ariza as projected, what makes him much different than, say, Terrance Jones?

At the end of the day it's your prerogative if you choose to justify the move. I definitely won't; not because we traded Howard, but because we accomplished nothing short of igniting the match and waiting for the bomb to detonate in our faces.

Riddle me this: If we let Howard walk and remained status quo, what would our cap situation look like in 2013/2014?

Around $36M with 8 players under contract.

Now after this trade? Try ~$44M with 10 players; 11 and $46M if Eyenga's TO is picked up.

Essentially we ridded ourselves of $7.7M (JRich/Doo-hon) next season and inherited $14.75M (Afflalo/Harrington/Harkless/Vucevic) with potential for almost $17M (Eyenga).

But wait, that $17.8M TPE has to account for something, right? Well, yeah, but we could have dumped Howard to Houston for picks only and received an even bigger TPE. Hell, that might've been a better trade anyway, seeing how the Toronto and Dallas picks are arguably more attractive pieces than what we received.

So, if the purpose of this trade was to salary dump, Hennigan failed. If the purpose was to acquire a plethora of valuable draft picks, Hennigan failed once more. If the purpose was to acquire a prospect like Harkless, why not just trade up for him on draft night when he slipped out of the lottery or simply draft T-Jones? Again, Hennigan failed.

Now, if none of the objectives were met with this trade, what exactly was the purpose? Appeasing Howard?

This is why Orlando is the laughing stock of the league. The net value of this trade is in the negative.

One of the best posts I've read yet.
Didn't want it to die at the end of the last thread.

Harrington and Afllalo are way bigger trade assets and Harrington has a far more attractive contract then J RIch. These pieces give Orlando far more flexibility 2 summers from now when they wanted the cap room (this would be after being terrible and landing top 5 picks in consecutive years)

Houston lost its ability to be flexible when they offered Asik and Lin those monster deals. Houston could not absorb a single contract other then Howard's

Do I love the trade.......NO ( I dont even really like it ). Am I ok with a wait and see approach.......YES. Not getting a second lotto pick this year (Toronto's) kinda hurts, but the year is not over yet and you never know we might end up with 2 lotto picks in this years draft yet ( no one has a crystal ball ). But I am far Higher on Harkless then I am on Lamb, Jones, or D-Mo. So I am nowhere near as angry as you.

[tiderulz]

Who cares about the protection on the picks. They're still better than what the nets were if offering. And with the scouts we currently have, I have no doubt we'll get decent-to-good players with EVERY pick. Look what the Spurs have continuously done with their picks late in the round. Look what we did this year at #19 & #49. Granted, they haven't played yet but I trust we'll actually get value from those protected picks.

i dont know. The scouts outside of Henny came from Detroit, and they havent been exactly setting the world on fire with their draft picks the past few years

[D12VCMagic]

We have the maximum 15 players under contract, with only one PG and too many PFs. I think some minor deals are in the works. I don't see a need for McRoberts here at all, he either is moved or bought out. Harrington will be shopped around, but we can't take salary back really. I could see him here during the season, but he'll be cutting some young guys minutes somewhere. I'd prefer to keep him over Hedo, but he is a better player with more value around the league.

[bigdogdylan5]

I'll never warm up to this trade because it accomplished very little outside of ending the Dwight Howard saga.

Exhibit A -
We added additional salary rather than clearing cap space. Afflalo (4/$31M) and Harrington (3/$14M) replace JRich (3/$18.6M) and Doo-hon (2/$4.75M). Net gain of ~$22M, which $19.5M ($11.5M in '14/'15; $8M in '15/'16) is split between the final two years.

Exhibit B -
The three first round draft picks are designed to land outside of the lottery, which makes it tougher to draft a star ala the OKC model. The GSW second rounder isn't as attractive as it once was; that Warriors team has vastly improved.

Exhibit C -
The young talent leaves a lot to be desired. Vucevic & Harkless look like intriguing prospects, and of course adding Eyenga sure doesn't hurt. But Harkless is the wild card here; if he becomes a star this trade will look much, much better. However, if his ceiling maxes at Trevor Ariza as projected, what makes him much different than, say, Terrance Jones?

At the end of the day it's your prerogative if you choose to justify the move. I definitely won't; not because we traded Howard, but because we accomplished nothing short of igniting the match and waiting for the bomb to detonate in our faces.

Riddle me this: If we let Howard walk and remained status quo, what would our cap situation look like in 2013/2014?

Around $36M with 8 players under contract.

Now after this trade? Try ~$44M with 10 players; 11 and $46M if Eyenga's TO is picked up.

Essentially we ridded ourselves of $7.7M (JRich/Doo-hon) next season and inherited $14.75M (Afflalo/Harrington/Harkless/Vucevic) with potential for almost $17M (Eyenga).

But wait, that $17.8M TPE has to account for something, right? Well, yeah, but we could have dumped Howard to Houston for picks only and received an even bigger TPE. Hell, that might've been a better trade anyway, seeing how the Toronto and Dallas picks are arguably more attractive pieces than what we received.

So, if the purpose of this trade was to salary dump, Hennigan failed. If the purpose was to acquire a plethora of valuable draft picks, Hennigan failed once more. If the purpose was to acquire a prospect like Harkless, why not just trade up for him on draft night when he slipped out of the lottery or simply draft T-Jones? Again, Hennigan failed.

Now, if none of the objectives were met with this trade, what exactly was the purpose? Appeasing Howard?

This is why Orlando is the laughing stock of the league. The net value of this trade is in the negative.

One of the best posts I've read yet.
Didn't want it to die at the end of the last thread.

Ok this pisses me off beyond believe and i really wish i could make you accountable for these stupid comments. Yes we did not get immediate cap relief in this deal but that is not wat Henny wanted. Wat good is cap relief when u dont have anything to attract the big name free agents. I will not be suprised if Harrington gets traded at the deadline to a team desperate for some scoring and trying to win now. Even if he doesnt his deal lines up perfectly with Jameer and Hedo's so as they will be very valuable as expiring contracts after next season. Trading them can net us even more picks and or young upincoming talent. Affalo is gonna be featured by this team as the best player we are gonna pad his stats and then sell high with him prolly in next years draft. Those picks can be used to sweeten any deal we make with BBD or JJ. So please STFU until u see wat Henny does with all this flexiblity because he went out and wanted this deal he is a smart guy and knows what he is doing

[tiderulz]

Harrington and Afllalo are way bigger trade assets and Harrington has a far more attractive contract then J RIch. These pieces give Orlando far more flexibility 2 summers from now when they wanted the cap room (this would be after being terrible and landing top 5 picks in consecutive years)

where do you get this from? Harrington is not a trade asset. He is older than most team vets, doesnt play defense and has 3 years left on his contract. And dont tell me about a buyout, no one trades for a player just to pay them to leave (unless you are Otis trading for Arenas). It doesnt happen, not for the amount it would take to make Harrington go away. There is a reason that Denver made sure he was leaving.

[magicman123]

Couple things

Why do people care about the protections on those draft picks? Look at the teams we are getting them from, they are gonna be **** picks no matter what. Its not like those picks would ever be top 5 picks anyways.

Also, Why do people think afflalo is just a through in that isnt in the long term plans? Not only was he basically the centerpiece of the trade, but was drafted by our assistant GM. To me that says that he was a guy they targeted and have big plans for. He obviously knows the kid and what hes all about and wants to build around him, he also seems to fit the model of henny wants. This guy is going to be our starting SG for a long time unless we draft Shabaaz next year

philly was the 8th seed this year, 7th seed last year, and the 13th seed the year before that, they lost lou williams, lost iggy, lost brand, lost vucevic and gained bynum, what if bynum has his usual string of injuries, hows that draft pick looking now? thats why it sucks

denver was the 6th seed this year, 5th seed the year before, they now lost nene for a full season, lost afflalo, lost harrington, and gained iggy, (still a young and upcoming team) but they could be close to a lottery team, but its whatever pick is worse between them and the knicks (who look like playoff locks for a few more years), so we gotta bank on the knicks and nuggets sucking for a better pick

the lakers pick we wont see for 5 years anyways

[bigdogdylan5]

Steve Kyler‏@stevekylerNBA

RT @vishgos01: whats ur impression of Moe Harkless? --> Love the guy. Hard worker. Better shooter now than he was in college. Bright future

RT @vishgos01: ---> Harkless has a HUGE ceiling, he could be incredibly good... just turned 19 in May... He's excited for the chance in Orl

[bigdogdylan5]

Harrington and Afllalo are way bigger trade assets and Harrington has a far more attractive contract then J RIch. These pieces give Orlando far more flexibility 2 summers from now when they wanted the cap room (this would be after being terrible and landing top 5 picks in consecutive years)

where do you get this from? Harrington is not a trade asset. He is older than most team vets, doesnt play defense and has 3 years left on his contract. And dont tell me about a buyout, no one trades for a player just to pay them to leave (unless you are Otis trading for Arenas). It doesnt happen, not for the amount it would take to make Harrington go away. There is a reason that Denver made sure he was leaving.

Oh so your a GM now making proclamations like this. Henny is gonna make you all eat ur words when he flips him to a contender in need of a veteran 3 pt presence the Clipper come to mind

[D12VCMagic]

Teams trade for players to buy them out for cap space all the time. See the Hornets with Rashard a few months ago.

[PeePee la Fritz]

Who cares about the protection on the picks. They're still better than what the nets were if offering. And with the scouts we currently have, I have no doubt we'll get decent-to-good players with EVERY pick. Look what the Spurs have continuously done with their picks late in the round. Look what we did this year at #19 & #49. Granted, they haven't played yet but I trust we'll actually get value from those protected picks.

i dont know. The scouts outside of Henny came from Detroit, and they havent been exactly setting the world on fire with their draft picks the past few years

Seriously?! Last time I checked Monroe and Knight were turning into studs. I like the direction Detroit is heading