2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
- Quake Griffin
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
Feel like I may have asked you this before.
But why are you more into prep arms than college arms?
I remember reading somewhere that the Card take college arms and they thought so much of Shelby Miller in 09 that they departed from that line of thinking to pick him.
It does seem like we have a history with taking prep arms in the Logan White era, I'm just not as well versed in baseball draft theories as I am NFL or NBA.
But why are you more into prep arms than college arms?
I remember reading somewhere that the Card take college arms and they thought so much of Shelby Miller in 09 that they departed from that line of thinking to pick him.
It does seem like we have a history with taking prep arms in the Logan White era, I'm just not as well versed in baseball draft theories as I am NFL or NBA.
“I’ve always felt that drafting is the life blood of any organization.” - Jerome Alan West.
Prep vs. College Arms
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Prep vs. College Arms
Quake Griffin wrote:Feel like I may have asked you this before.
But why are you more into prep arms than college arms?
I remember reading somewhere that the Card take college arms and they thought so much of Shelby Miller in 09 that they departed from that line of thinking to pick him.
It does seem like we have a history with taking prep arms in the Logan White era, I'm just not as well versed in baseball draft theories as I am NFL or NBA.
While prep arms are riskier given how undeveloped they typically are, they represent very good upside. Obviously, college arms are usually more mature and proven, but in my opinion, when you're picking in the mid-to-late first-round, you have a better chance of getting better value at such draft-slot positions based on the upside proposition. College players are usually the best fast-track candidates as more immediate contributors, but the their ceilings are usually lower, especially when the top college players are typically picked towards the top of the draft.
Of course, each situation is different, but as a general rule of thumb, I think we have a better chance of getting an elite prospect going with a prep arm on our typical draft position even if it's at the cost of hitting on more first-round selections. At the same time, I only like going after prep arms if we target specific characteristics that Logan White prioritized such as clean mechanics, physical tools, and projectability. However, the Dodgers do need to do a better job of hitting on first-round picks, so I get why college arms are preferrable, especially given how successful the St. Louis Cardinals organization have been with them.
Some of our standout first-round picks include Clayton Kershaw, James Loney, Chad Billingsley, and Grant Holmes. Of course, that also includes Ethan Martin and Zach Lee. The Dodgers took Walker Beuhler and Kyle Funkhouser in last year's draft. Both were college arms that fell due to injury concerns. I actually liked the Beuhler pick but I was leaning towards high school pitcher, Mike Nikorak, but I'm not at all upset with that pick. Funkhouser, on the other hand, seemed liked a bad pick from the start and I was actually relieved when he didn't sign with us. As it turned out, we might be better off with the 36th overall pick in this year's draft had we drafted someone else, but the Dodgers did seem to make a legitimate effort to bring Funkhouser into the fold. If it were not for Boras' influence, we'd have been stuck with him.
Another example is when the Dodgers opted for high-schooler Corey Seager 18th overall instead of Michael Wacha who was taken right after at 19th overall by the Cardinals. While Seager is not a pitcher, he was a prep SS who was highly thought of where Zack Greinke even wanted him for that pick. Wacha had the more immediate success and is still a good player, but it's clear that Seager currently represents the higher value.
I'll concede that we should hit at a higher rate of success in the first-round than we had been under Logan White as it is a waste of valuable opportunities, but the Dodgers seem to have more difficulty in grooming star-level players, Clayton Kershaw and hopefully Seager notwithstanding. Our current prospect pipeline is deep in terms of quantity but our quality atop the internal rankings needs to be replenished, but that is because we have been successful in graduating productive players in recent years after the McCourt years, thank goodness.
I'm not going to not pick a guy because he's a college pitcher, but my favorite prospects tend to be high-school prospects mostly because those are the ones that are typically best available by the time we pick. In fact, I'm partial to going after college pitcher, Cal Quantrill, with one of our first 2 first-round picks. I like him because he is proven and represents some upside with an already polished repertoire of quality pitches. The only reason he might be available is because he's coming off Tommy John surgery and has yet to pitch this season. I just tend to like higher upside picks as long as they show elevated indications of reaching that ceiling. For instance, two prep position players who the Dodgers are purportedly interested in are SS Gavin Lux and OF Taylor Trammell. While I'm certainly interested in adding both of them to our organization, I'm uncomfortable right now with taken either with our first-round picks due to what I feel are raw tools. However, both have supposedly shown production lately as prospects rising on the draft board. Still, I'd like to see more of a proven track record in each case.
Again, while both Lux and Trammell are not pitchers, the concept and philosophy are the same where my preference is for higher ceiling with a fairly established track record whether it is a prep pitcher or college batter. I hope I answered your question without going off the rails too much.
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Nosler's Realistic Big Board for Dodgers' Draft
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Nosler's Realistic Big Board for Dodgers' Draft
Dustin Nosler seems to share in my preference towards approaching the draft, but as it was mentioned before, Gasparino's tendency in recent drafts points in another direction. I didn't know Justin Dunn was previously a late-round Dodger draftee back in 2013, but for whatever reason, I'm usually more encouraged with prospects the Dodgers have identified early in their careers as previous late-round draft picks during the prior regime (David Price, Paul Goldschmidt, and Kevin Gausman) so that's certainly a plus for Dunn in my book.
Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (5/19/16)
2016 MLB Draft: Dodgers’ Big Board, V 1.0
Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (5/19/16)
There’s no guarantee the Dodgers will select any of the players below. I tend to lean toward the prep player, so you’ll see a lot of high schoolers on every iteration of this list. But looking at Billy Gasparino’s three drafts (two with the Padres, one last year with the Dodgers), he has selected a college player with each of his first three picks (Hunter Renfroe, Trea Turner and Walker Buehler). And seeing what the Dodgers did with their second selection last year (Kyle Funkhouser), I’m not too optimistic they’ll select more than one high schooler with their first three picks. Because of my preference, I’m not the biggest fan of that strategy, but I understand it.
...
My Big Board, v 1.0
1. 3B/OF/RHP Josh Lowe, Pope HS (Ga.)
2. RHP Matt Manning, Sheldon HS (Calif.)
3. SS/3B Nolan Jones, Holy Ghost Prep (Pa.)
4. RHP Jared Horn, Vintage HS (Calif.)
5. RHP Justin Dunn, Boston College
6. LHP Joey Wentz, Shawnee Mission East HS (Kansas)
7. LHP Eric Lauer, Kent St.
8. RHP Kevin Gowdy, Santa Barbara HS (Calif.)
9. RHP Jordan Sheffield, Vanderbilt
10. OF William Benson, The Westminser Schools (Ga.)
11. OF Taylor Trammell, Mount Paran Christian HS (Ga.)
12. RHP Forrest Whitley, Alamo Heights HS (Texas)
13. RHP Reggie Lawson, Victor Valley HS (Calif.)
14. 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff, Plum HS (Pa.)
15. RHP Dakota Hudson, Mississippi St.
...
Justin Dunn has been mocked to the Dodgers by Keith Law and Jonathan Mayo, and he was also selected by the Dodgers in the 37th round of the 2013 draft. Posses a legit low-to-mid-90s fastball.
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Alternatives to Gasparino's Recent Draft Choices
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Alternatives to Gasparino's Recent Draft Choices
Prompted by Nosler's citing of Billy Gasparino's recent draft picks, I decided to look back at those respective drafts to see whom was available at the time and who my targets were back then.
I think it's a little unfair to compare the values of the college vs. prep prospects debate with regard to hitting prospects and pitching ones. While I tend to favor prep arms over college ones with respect to our typical draft position, I'm more ambivalent when it comes to college bats versus the high school ones. College bats are typically safer and more advanced, but even here, I seem to favor high upside prep bats only because the good college hitters are usually snapped up before we get a chance at them. Plus, some of the ones that do become available from college tend to be players with limited to no positions in the field. All things being equal, I would prefer to get a college batter over a high school one, but again, it depends on who's available.
Now with regard to Gasparino's recent draft record, I think it's safe to say he whiffed by selecting Hunter Renfroe over J.P. Crawford. Yeah, it is too early to make the final call as these prospects are still developing, but Crawford is currently ranked as the 3rd best prospect in baseball while playing the premium SS position; Renfroe, on the other hand, is currently 88th overall. I was eyeing Hunter Harvey back in 2013 but the Dodgers took Chris Anderson ahead of him.
Gasparino does better in drafting Trea Turner, who is currently the 9th best prospect in baseball and also happens to play the premium SS position. Maybe you can argue the Angels' Sean Newcomb is the better prospect but he's currently hurt. Turner's speed and ability to stick at SS pretty much has this as a hit for Gasparino at this point in time. The Dodgers took Grant Holmes while I was advocating for Spencer Adams but I can't really complain about the pick. Although, Holmes' progress seems to have stalled a bit while there's still some upside to Adams. I also had an eye on Forrest Wall as another one of those safe 2B prospects.
Like I said before, I don't mind at all that we nabbed Walker Beuhler even with his subsequent injury. Even though I was leaning a little towards Mike Nikorak and like Ke'Bryan Hayes, I think Beuhler has a pretty high floor with a fairly high ceiling as a possible #2 or #3 starter and I definitely prefer him over taking Hayes at this spot as it was rumored that the Dodgers had an agreement to take Hayes with 1 of our 2 first-round picks last year. Kyle Funkhouser was an absolute miss that ended up working out in our favor, but the fact remains that the team proactively tried to sign him. Daz Cameron was the higher rated prospect but his salary demands made him an unrealistic target for us and, while Nathan Kirby is a decent prospect, the team has a chance to nab a better prospect with the compensatory pick for not signing Funkhouser.
At this point, Billy Gasparino's recent track record has been hit-or-miss, which should not be unexpected with regard to the draft. It can be argued that his recent track record has been an improvement over the Logan White effort over the years by comparison. However, Gasparino's misses have been huge whether it is missing out on J.P. Crawford or drafting with the intent to sign Kyle Funkhouser. Trea Turner may be a top prospect right now but he's not Corey Seager or Clayton Kershaw. Obviously, it's unfair to compare Turner to those two, but the point is that his misses have been more noteworthy than his hits, in my opinion.
While I'm looking forward to improving our overall draft record, I was hoping for something less bland.
- 2013: Hunter Renfroe (13th overall)
J.P. Crawford (16th overall) | Hunter Harvey (22nd overall) | Aaron Judge (32nd overall)
- 2014: Trea Turner (13th overall)
Sean Newcomb (15th overall) | Brandon Finnegan (17th overall) Bradley Zimmer (21st overall) | Grant Holmes (22nd overall) | Forrest Wall (35th overall) | Spencer Adams (44th overall)
- 2015: Walker Buehler (24th overall) | Kyle Funkhouser (35th overall)
Mike Nikorak (27th overall) | Ke'Bryan Hayes (32nd overall) | Daz Cameron (37th overall) | Nathan Kirby (40th overall)
I think it's a little unfair to compare the values of the college vs. prep prospects debate with regard to hitting prospects and pitching ones. While I tend to favor prep arms over college ones with respect to our typical draft position, I'm more ambivalent when it comes to college bats versus the high school ones. College bats are typically safer and more advanced, but even here, I seem to favor high upside prep bats only because the good college hitters are usually snapped up before we get a chance at them. Plus, some of the ones that do become available from college tend to be players with limited to no positions in the field. All things being equal, I would prefer to get a college batter over a high school one, but again, it depends on who's available.
Now with regard to Gasparino's recent draft record, I think it's safe to say he whiffed by selecting Hunter Renfroe over J.P. Crawford. Yeah, it is too early to make the final call as these prospects are still developing, but Crawford is currently ranked as the 3rd best prospect in baseball while playing the premium SS position; Renfroe, on the other hand, is currently 88th overall. I was eyeing Hunter Harvey back in 2013 but the Dodgers took Chris Anderson ahead of him.
Gasparino does better in drafting Trea Turner, who is currently the 9th best prospect in baseball and also happens to play the premium SS position. Maybe you can argue the Angels' Sean Newcomb is the better prospect but he's currently hurt. Turner's speed and ability to stick at SS pretty much has this as a hit for Gasparino at this point in time. The Dodgers took Grant Holmes while I was advocating for Spencer Adams but I can't really complain about the pick. Although, Holmes' progress seems to have stalled a bit while there's still some upside to Adams. I also had an eye on Forrest Wall as another one of those safe 2B prospects.
Like I said before, I don't mind at all that we nabbed Walker Beuhler even with his subsequent injury. Even though I was leaning a little towards Mike Nikorak and like Ke'Bryan Hayes, I think Beuhler has a pretty high floor with a fairly high ceiling as a possible #2 or #3 starter and I definitely prefer him over taking Hayes at this spot as it was rumored that the Dodgers had an agreement to take Hayes with 1 of our 2 first-round picks last year. Kyle Funkhouser was an absolute miss that ended up working out in our favor, but the fact remains that the team proactively tried to sign him. Daz Cameron was the higher rated prospect but his salary demands made him an unrealistic target for us and, while Nathan Kirby is a decent prospect, the team has a chance to nab a better prospect with the compensatory pick for not signing Funkhouser.
At this point, Billy Gasparino's recent track record has been hit-or-miss, which should not be unexpected with regard to the draft. It can be argued that his recent track record has been an improvement over the Logan White effort over the years by comparison. However, Gasparino's misses have been huge whether it is missing out on J.P. Crawford or drafting with the intent to sign Kyle Funkhouser. Trea Turner may be a top prospect right now but he's not Corey Seager or Clayton Kershaw. Obviously, it's unfair to compare Turner to those two, but the point is that his misses have been more noteworthy than his hits, in my opinion.
While I'm looking forward to improving our overall draft record, I was hoping for something less bland.
Ranma wrote:Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (5/19/16)But looking at Billy Gasparino’s three drafts (two with the Padres, one last year with the Dodgers), he has selected a college player with each of his first three picks (Hunter Renfroe, Trea Turner and Walker Buehler). And seeing what the Dodgers did with their second selection last year (Kyle Funkhouser), I’m not too optimistic they’ll select more than one high schooler with their first three picks. Because of my preference, I’m not the biggest fan of that strategy, but I understand it.
2016 MLB Draft: Dodgers’ Big Board, V 1.0
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
What do you make of Keith Law saying some of the high school arms that are 1st round talents dropping to the supplemental or second rounds?
Like Matt Manning or Ian Anderson.
Is that a no brainer for us or at that point would you still be in on Quantrill?
Just reading on those guys, it seems like if Manning is there at 20 we almost have to take that.
the size. the live arm.
Like Matt Manning or Ian Anderson.
Is that a no brainer for us or at that point would you still be in on Quantrill?
Just reading on those guys, it seems like if Manning is there at 20 we almost have to take that.
the size. the live arm.
“I’ve always felt that drafting is the life blood of any organization.” - Jerome Alan West.
Falling Prep Arms
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Falling Prep Arms
I find it hard to believe Matt Manning will fall out of the first round. He popped up on my radar very early and quickly rose to a sure-fire first-round pick. I think it's more unlikely than not that he'll be available by the time we pick; if he is, we have to seriously consider taking him. I actually have him ranked higher than Quantrill right now, but it's close. I don't know much about Ian Anderson other than that he's been projected to be a first-rounder since MLB started putting out its rankings for the 2016 class. He's not one of the high schoolers I'm clamoring for, but I can see him falling if there are health concerns and limited opportunities for scouts to see him as other players get more exposure to win favor.
A couple of other prep names are Joey Wentz and Forrest Whitley, who were both fast risers who may be falling towards the latter part of the first round and into the competitive-balance or second-round portion of the draft. I'm more intrigued with Wentz and Whitley than I am with Anderson, but there also seems to be possible concerns with their health. Prep pitching prospects' stocks tend to be very volatile given their fluctuating performances or even availability. On top of that, they tend to be the most susceptible to injury as their young bodies mature, particularly those who throw 100-mph fastballs, which again, is why I laud Logan White's emphasis on clean mechanics for prep pitching prospects. Signability is also a factor as certain prep arms have high-asking prices that don't make it feasible to draft them given the limited pool of funds available to sign drat picks.
I initially cited Forrest Whitley as one of the 3 prospects I was considering for 20th overall but that has changed to currently keeping both Josh Lowe and Matt Manning for consideration at that draft slot along with Cal Quantrill now. I'm still eyeing Alec Hansen with the 32nd or 36th overall pick, so maybe Joey Wentz and/or Forrest Whitley can fall into that range. I don't think I would be interested in Ian Anderson if he fell to any of those 3 draft slots for us depending on who's available. However, there's talk of Wentz demanding a high signing bonus. Whitley had problems with maintaining his body weight and conditioning so I'm not sure if health is an issue if he happens to fall down the draft board.
Catching prospects Cooper Johnson and Logan Ice seem to be more under the radar, relatively speaking, but I actually want to grab both with our 65th, 101st, and maybe later picks. Neddy has been high on Ice and I'm pretty much sold on him now as Baseball America has elevated him in the rankings recently. I always found it odd that another catching prospect, Brett Cumberland, seemed to get more attention than Ice, so I took it for granted that we could maybe nab Ice in the fourth round or later. That may not be the case any more.
A couple of other prep names are Joey Wentz and Forrest Whitley, who were both fast risers who may be falling towards the latter part of the first round and into the competitive-balance or second-round portion of the draft. I'm more intrigued with Wentz and Whitley than I am with Anderson, but there also seems to be possible concerns with their health. Prep pitching prospects' stocks tend to be very volatile given their fluctuating performances or even availability. On top of that, they tend to be the most susceptible to injury as their young bodies mature, particularly those who throw 100-mph fastballs, which again, is why I laud Logan White's emphasis on clean mechanics for prep pitching prospects. Signability is also a factor as certain prep arms have high-asking prices that don't make it feasible to draft them given the limited pool of funds available to sign drat picks.
I initially cited Forrest Whitley as one of the 3 prospects I was considering for 20th overall but that has changed to currently keeping both Josh Lowe and Matt Manning for consideration at that draft slot along with Cal Quantrill now. I'm still eyeing Alec Hansen with the 32nd or 36th overall pick, so maybe Joey Wentz and/or Forrest Whitley can fall into that range. I don't think I would be interested in Ian Anderson if he fell to any of those 3 draft slots for us depending on who's available. However, there's talk of Wentz demanding a high signing bonus. Whitley had problems with maintaining his body weight and conditioning so I'm not sure if health is an issue if he happens to fall down the draft board.
Catching prospects Cooper Johnson and Logan Ice seem to be more under the radar, relatively speaking, but I actually want to grab both with our 65th, 101st, and maybe later picks. Neddy has been high on Ice and I'm pretty much sold on him now as Baseball America has elevated him in the rankings recently. I always found it odd that another catching prospect, Brett Cumberland, seemed to get more attention than Ice, so I took it for granted that we could maybe nab Ice in the fourth round or later. That may not be the case any more.
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
1:26
Proswagonist: Any chance Braxton Garrett makes it down to the Astors at 17?
1:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Doubt it, but one of those top prep arms has to fall. Garrett, Wentz, Anderson, Manning…they can’t all go top 15. Whitley will probably be there.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-5-20-16/
slowly but surely getting more read up on the draft. Not read up enough to form a reasonable opinion on which prospect I want but I have a much better feel for it.
How did you feel about Walker Buehler at the time?
Did you want someone else? We did end up taking 1) a college arm 2) below slot value 3) to watch him not be able to pitch until 2017.
Proswagonist: Any chance Braxton Garrett makes it down to the Astors at 17?
1:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Doubt it, but one of those top prep arms has to fall. Garrett, Wentz, Anderson, Manning…they can’t all go top 15. Whitley will probably be there.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-5-20-16/
slowly but surely getting more read up on the draft. Not read up enough to form a reasonable opinion on which prospect I want but I have a much better feel for it.
How did you feel about Walker Buehler at the time?
Did you want someone else? We did end up taking 1) a college arm 2) below slot value 3) to watch him not be able to pitch until 2017.
“I’ve always felt that drafting is the life blood of any organization.” - Jerome Alan West.
Revisiting 2015 MLB Draft
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Revisiting 2015 MLB Draft
Quake Griffin wrote:How did you feel about Walker Buehler at the time?
Did you want someone else? We did end up taking 1) a college arm 2) below slot value 3) to watch him not be able to pitch until 2017.
I was really hoping either high-school OF Garrett Whitley or 2014 #1 overall pick LHP Brady Aiken would fall to us at 24th overall but they went 13th and 17th overall, respectively. Whitley is a toolsy but raw prospect who showed baseball IQ. Aiken had concerns with the abnormally short UCL in his pitching elbow, which led to him not signing with the Astros and re-entering the draft, but the upside was appealing to me with respect to our draft position. As it turned out, we took Walker Beuhler who had injury concerns himself even if it's not as serious supposedly.
I didn't target Beuhler specifically but was okay with taking him with our 1st pick since I was not that hyped on prep pitcher Mike Nikorak even if I preferred him. I was kind of hoping for Daz Cameron mostly due to his high ranking but his bonus demands were beyond our allotted budget. Two guys I really liked but did not want to take too early were high-schoolers RHP Tristan Beck and C Lucas Herbert. Beck was a hard commit to Stanford whom the Brewers rolled the dice on in the 34th round. Herbert was someone I was hoping to get in round 2 or 3 but the Braves took him 13 spots earlier than our draft spot in the 2nd round at 54th overall.
In the end, Buelher's previous consideration as a possible top-10 pick, polish, repertoire, and fairly clean mechanics won me over as our 1st draft selection even if he was not considered to have "homerun" upside. He's already a top 10 prospect in our system despite his injury but he doesn't have the same potential as a Julio Urias, Corey Seager, Clayton Kershaw, or Yadier Alvarez. Then again, few do and given our slotted position in that draft class, we weren't going to find such players or at least be able to sign them.
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
I've noticed you're in on Catchers a lot.
Can never have enough Catchers or you're just looking for our Posey?
Can never have enough Catchers or you're just looking for our Posey?
“I’ve always felt that drafting is the life blood of any organization.” - Jerome Alan West.
Catching Prospects Receiving Increased Interest
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Catching Prospects Receiving Increased Interest
Quake Griffin wrote:I've noticed you're in on Catchers a lot.
Can never have enough Catchers or you're just looking for our Posey?
I'm usually not a fan of drafting catching prospects high, but it's an important position to have confidence in both at the Major League and minor league levels since it helps with pitching, which is usually a strength for us as an organization. Our best catching prospect is Austin Barnes but he's someone who should be playing right now, in all honesty. The ones we have in the pipeline in Kyle Farmer and Julian Leon have not inspired confidence in solidifying the position for the future as of yet.
This is why I've been focusing more on finding good catching prospects in the draft so that we won't have to worry as much about it for a few years. I lean more towards the defensively accomplished catching prospects with bats that may need further development over the more proven bats who have doubts about sticking at backstop on the diamond.
Teams have made drafting catchers a priority in recent drafts, which puts a further emphasis in trying to get some to fill our own developmental pipeline. This year's class seems to have quite a lot of fairly high-ranked catchers even if none are a stud like projected top 2017 draft pick J.J. Schwartz. Despite the quantity in depth for catchers in this class, I'm really only interested in Cooper Johnson and Logan Ice for now.
I'd like to capitalize on this opportunity to solidify our catching depth in the minors, which will allow us to gamble on taking flyers in the later rounds for that position in subsequent drafts so that we can focus on taking players at the more premium positions with the higher draft picks on a normal basis. Basically, I just want to fill a positional void in our depth chart so that we can get back to focusing on the sexier positions.
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
Logan Ice is the best position prospect out of Pac 12 hands down.
.360/.483/.697 22BB/5K
show me another hitter with those numbers, and remember that this kid is a catcher. BTW his defense is second to none. he may not be a top 15 pick in the draft, but he is surely in the discussion for the picks between 20th through 45th.
.360/.483/.697 22BB/5K
show me another hitter with those numbers, and remember that this kid is a catcher. BTW his defense is second to none. he may not be a top 15 pick in the draft, but he is surely in the discussion for the picks between 20th through 45th.
ehhhhh f it.
Logan Ice
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Logan Ice
Neddy wrote:Logan Ice is the best position prospect out of Pac 12 hands down.
.360/.483/.697 22BB/5K
show me another hitter with those numbers, and remember that this kid is a catcher. BTW his defense is second to none. he may not be a top 15 pick in the draft, but he is surely in the discussion for the picks between 20th through 45th.
Ever since you turned me onto him, Neddy, I like what I've read about his defense and approach to self-improvement with regards to his batting. The kid is still open to learning. I'm certainly sold on adding him to the Dodgers organization, but based on the current rankings, he's not projected to go in the top 75 at this point and I want to maximize our draft opportunities. Obviously, that could change and teams have reached before with the Angels surprisingly taking catcher Taylor Ward in the 1st round last year. However, as of right now, Baseball America has Logan Ice at 88th overall with MLB.com not listing him among its top 100 draft prospects.
There's quite a number of names in the catching prospects pool, but Zack Collins, Chris Okey and Matt Thaiss have particularly stood out for their bats. However, all 3 have question marks--with some more serious than others--on whether they will stick at the catcher position in the long-term. Neither Logan Ice or Cooper Johnson have such concerns, but Ice is much further along with his hitting than Johnson despite Johnson ranking higher overall on prospects lists.
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Re: Logan Ice
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Re: Logan Ice
Ranma wrote:Neddy wrote:Logan Ice is the best position prospect out of Pac 12 hands down.
.360/.483/.697 22BB/5K
show me another hitter with those numbers, and remember that this kid is a catcher. BTW his defense is second to none. he may not be a top 15 pick in the draft, but he is surely in the discussion for the picks between 20th through 45th.
Ever since you turned me onto him, Neddy, I like what I've read about his defense and approach to self-improvement with regards to his batting. The kid is still open to learning. I'm certainly sold on adding him to the Dodgers organization, but based on the current rankings, he's not projected to go in the top 75 at this point and I want to maximize our draft opportunities. Obviously, that could change and teams have reached before with the Angels surprisingly taking catcher Taylor Ward in the 1st round last year. However, as of right now, Baseball America has Logan Ice at 88th overall with MLB.com not listing him among its top 100 draft prospects.
There's quite a number of names in the catching prospects pool, but Zack Collins, Chris Okey and Matt Thaiss have particularly stood out for their bats. However, all 3 have question marks--with some more serious than others--on whether they will stick at the catcher position in the long-term. Neither Logan Ice or Cooper Johnson have such concerns, but Ice is much further along with his hitting than Johnson despite Johnson ranking higher overall on prospects lists.
Matt Thaiss has slightly better BA but Ice has much better OPS. both of his OBP and SLG are superior to Matt Thaiss. I don't buy the notion that Ice is a poorman's version of Thaiss because he played for Virginia and somehow thought to be in a conference with better competition. I truly believe Pac 12 baseball is right there against anyone in the country.
ehhhhh f it.
Playing the Odds in Draft Game
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Playing the Odds in Draft Game
Neddy wrote:Matt Thaiss has slightly better BA but Ice has much better OPS. both of his OBP and SLG are superior to Matt Thaiss. I don't buy the notion that Ice is a poorman's version of Thaiss because he played for Virginia and somehow thought to be in a conference with better competition. I truly believe Pac 12 baseball is right there against anyone in the country.
I actually like Ice better than Thaiss just like I prefer Johnson over Okey. In my opinion, both Ice and Johnson deserve to be drafted higher than either Thaiss or Okey. While that may not apply to Collins, I like Johnson and Ice both better as actual catchers. I'm not really interested in drafting any of Collins, Okey, or Thaiss. I'm just trying to play the draft board in order to maximize our overall haul. I wouldn't be opposed to reaching for Johnson or Ice at certain draft slots if my other preferred targets are off the board depending on the circumstances. I want to come away from this draft with both Johnson and Ice in tow. Hopefully, we'll get at least one of them.
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
Damn, this joint is 5 days away.
“I’ve always felt that drafting is the life blood of any organization.” - Jerome Alan West.
Approaching the Event Horizon
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Approaching the Event Horizon
I have some catching up to do. I'll see if I can put some updates up with the draft coming so near.
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ESPN Insider's Mock Drafts 2.0 & 3.0 and Projected Dodgers' Needs
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ESPN Insider's Mock Drafts 2.0 & 3.0 and Projected Dodgers' Needs
Keith Law, ESPN Insider (5/28/16)
Keith Law's 2016 MLB Mock Draft 2.0
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Matt Thaiss
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Jordan Sheffield
Keith Law, ESPN Insider (6/3/16)
Keith Law's 2016 MLB Mock Draft 3.0
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Cody Sedlock
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider (5/22/16)
Draft Needs, Possible Fits for NL West Teams
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Gavin Lux
20. Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Thaiss, C
Virginia
I suppose it seems predictable to connect the Dodgers with a good-stats college guy, but I know they've also scouted the high school crop heavily, including Gavin Lux and Joey Wentz.
...
32. Los Angeles Dodgers
Jordan Sheffield, RHP
Vanderbilt
Sheffield might have cost himself some money and a few spots in the draft when he allowed nine runs in the SEC tournament Thursday. That's not going to help him convince teams he's a starter and not a (very good) reliever.
Keith Law's 2016 MLB Mock Draft 2.0
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Matt Thaiss
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Jordan Sheffield
Keith Law, ESPN Insider (6/3/16)
20. Los Angeles Dodgers
Cody Sedlock, RHP
Illinois
Sedlock seems a fair bet to go in the 15-23 range, with the Dodgers a possible floor depending on how the board plays out.
...
32. Los Angeles Dodgers
Jordan Sheffield, RHP
Vanderbilt
Some scouts think the Dodgers take Sheffield at 20, but (1) I think that's too rich; and (2) the board might actually play out where Sheffield, who may have hurt his draft stock at the SEC tournament, gets to this second pick. I do think if they get a college arm at 20, as I have them doing, they'd be more open to taking a high school player here.
Keith Law's 2016 MLB Mock Draft 3.0
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Cody Sedlock
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider (5/22/16)
Los Angeles Dodgers
First pick: No. 20
Bonus pool: $9,336,500 (9th)
System strength: The Dodgers have a seemingly endless supply of cash and have been as aggressive in the international market as the industry has ever seen.
System weakness: It's going to be a while before the system produces talent at a premium defensive position, with Omar Estevez, Yusniel Diaz and other no-doubt shortstop/center field defensive talents all at the lower levels.
Recent top picks
2015: Walker Buehler, RHP, No. 24
2014: Grant Holmes, RHP, No. 22
2013: Chris Anderson, RHP, No. 18
2012: Corey Seager, SS, No. 18
2011: Chris Reed, LHP, No. 16
Possible fits
A high-risk/high-upside pick: The Dodgers also have picks at 32 and 36, and with those picks, they can afford to take a chance on Josh Lowe or Will Benson, or they could even take Buddy Reed at 20 and then diversify their draft class later.
Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois : Sedlock is at 93-94 mph with feel for a slider and curveball, and he throws strikes. He's probably only a No. 4 starter, but that's solid value at this point, especially if the Dodgers grab him at 32 or 36 instead of 20. Logan Shore or Eric Lauer are also possibilities.
Gavin Lux, SS, Indian Trail Academy (Kenosha, Wisconsin) : Lux is one of very few players likely to remain at shortstop. The late first and sandwich rounds are normally where players like Lux, who projects at a premium position but is unlikely to have an impact bat, end up going.
Draft Needs, Possible Fits for NL West Teams
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Gavin Lux
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
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Re: 2016 MLB Amateur Player Draft
http://www.truebluela.com/2016/6/6/11871138/mlb-draft-2016-top-prospects
Longenhagen is so right about the flaw in our system at this point.
Longenhagen is so right about the flaw in our system at this point.
“I’ve always felt that drafting is the life blood of any organization.” - Jerome Alan West.
BA's Best Tools Among Top 200 Prospects
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BA's Best Tools Among Top 200 Prospects
Baseball America Staff Report
Best Tools: 2016 Draft Class
HIT
High School
Mickey Moniak
Blake Rutherford
Joe Rizzo
College
Nick Senzel, Tennessee
Will Craig, Wake Forest
Matt Thaiss, Virginia
POWER
High School
Will Benson
Josh Lowe
Nolan Jones
College
Kyle Lewis, Mercer
Logan Gray, Austin Peay State
Will Craig, Wake Forest
STRIKE-ZONE DISCIPLINE
High School
Mickey Moniak
Taylor Trammell
Carter Kieboom
College
Zack Collins, Miami
Matt Thaiss, Virginia
Nick Senzel, Tennessee
SPEED
High School
Delvin Perez
Taylor Trammell
Trevyne Carter
College
Buddy Reed, Florida
Anfernee Grier, Auburn
OUTFIELD ARM
High School
Brandon Marsh
Alex Kirilloff
Will Benson
College
Austin Hays, Jacksonville
Nick Banks, Texas A&M
Buddy Reed, Florida
INFIELD ARM
High School
Delvin Perez
Josh Lowe
Nolan Jones
College
Will Craig, Wake Forest
Stephen Alemais, Tulane
Bobby Dalbec, Arizona
CATCHER ARM
High School
Cooper Johnson
Brad Debo
Ben Rortvedt
College
Jake Rogers, Tulane
Sean Murphy, Wright State
Chris Okey, Clemson
OUTFIELD DEFENSE
High School
Mickey Moniak (pictured)
Taylor Trammell
Blake Rutherford
College
Buddy Reed, Florida
Anfernee Grier, Auburn
Jake Fraley, Louisiana State
INFIELD DEFENSE
High School
Delvin Perez
Gavin Lux
Carter Kieboom
College
Stephen Alemais, Tulane
Connor Justus, Ga. Tech
CATCHER DEFENSE
High School
Cooper Johnson
Ben Rortvedt
Mike Amditis
College
Jake Rogers, Tulane
Sean Murphy, Wright State
FASTBALL
High School
Riley Pint
Matt Manning
Jason Groome
College
Zack Burdi, Louisville
A.J. Puk, Florida
Alec Hansen, Oklahoma
BREAKING BALL
High School
Jason Groome
Braxton Garrett
Forrest Whitley
College
Zach Jackson, Arkansas
Zack Burdi, Louisville
CHANGEUP
High School
Riley Pint
Jesus Luzardo
Jason Groome
College
Logan Shore, Florida
Daulton Jefferies, Cal
CONTROL
High School
Braxton Garrett
Jason Groome
Jesus Luzardo
College
Eric Lauer, Kent State
Daulton Jefferies, California
ATHLETE
High School
Delvin Perez
Josh Lowe
Will Benson
College
Buddy Reed, Florida
Anfernee Grier, Auburn
Kyle Lewis, Mercer
Best Tools: 2016 Draft Class
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MLB Pipeline Top 200 and ESPN Insider's Big Board of 100
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MLB Pipeline Top 200 and ESPN Insider's Big Board of 100
MLB Pipeline recently doubled its draft prospects rankings to 200 while Keith Law recently released his big board rankings of 100 prospects for the 2016 draft class through ESPN Insider. Below are tweets with the corresponding links to those respective sites as well as profiles of some of my favorite targets that had not been posted previously.
Keith Law, ESPN Insider (6/5/16)
MLB Draft Big Board: Louisville's Ray Slipping in Mock, But Not Here
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Josh Lowe
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Matt Manning
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Cal Quantrill
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Alec Hansen
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Cooper Johnson


Keith Law, ESPN Insider (6/5/16)
9. Matt Manning, RHP
Sheldon HS (Sacramento)
Previous rank: 9
A supreme athlete who has been up to 98 mph and has a scholarship to play baseball and basketball at Loyola Marymount, Manning is still somewhat raw as a pitcher, and his main off-speed pitch is a spike curveball that few pitchers can command.
...
23. Cal Quantrill, RHP
Stanford
Previous rank: 21
Quantrill had Tommy John surgery in March 2015 but chose not to pitch this spring ahead of the draft, fueling speculation that he has some sort of agreement in place to sign with a team and thus didn't want to put that at risk by rushing his rehab. Quantrill was a potential 1-1 (No. 1 overall) pick had he stayed healthy through the draft, and the 6-foot-3 right-hander could be huge value for some team in the late-first or early-compensatory rounds.
MLB Draft Big Board: Louisville's Ray Slipping in Mock, But Not Here
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Josh Lowe
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Matt Manning
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Cal Quantrill
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Alec Hansen
Eric Longenhagen, ESPN Insider
ESPN Insider Draft Profile: Cooper Johnson


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