Updated Weekly Rankings through week 14

[El Turco]

they might be the only team in the big 12 that can play defense

that is like being the smartest guy in special olympics, not really impressive.

[studcrackers]

they might be the only team in the big 12 that can play defense

that is like being the smartest guy in special olympics, not really impressive.

Well when you give up 17 to Texas tech and then their qb goes out the next week and sets ties the NCAA record for most passing yards in a game I'd say it's pretty impressive

You gonna be in San Fran in a couple weeks or you still stuck in turkey queer?

[El Turco]

they might be the only team in the big 12 that can play defense

that is like being the smartest guy in special olympics, not really impressive.

Well when you give up 17 to Texas tech and then their qb goes out the next week and sets ties the NCAA record for most passing yards in a game I'd say it's pretty impressive

You gonna be in San Fran in a couple weeks or you still stuck in turkey queer?

still a queer

[studcrackers]

Lame

[bluejerseyjinx]

1) Clemson
2) Alabama
3) Michigan
4) Louisville
5) Washington ?
6) Wisconsin
7) Ohio State
8) Nebraska
9) Auburn
10) Texas A & M
11) Oklahoma State
12) North Carolina
13) Oklahoma
14) Virginia Tech
15) Arkansas

My current top 15.

[bwgood77]

College Football Playoff Rankings

RK TEAM REC TREND
1 Alabama 10-0 —
2 Ohio State 9-1 3
3 Michigan 9-1 —
4 Clemson 9-1 2
5 Louisville 9-1 1
6 Washington 9-1 2
7 Wisconsin 8-2 —
8 Penn State 8-2 2
9 Oklahoma 8-2 2
10 Colorado 8-2 2
11 Oklahoma State 8-2 2
12 Utah 8-2 3
13 USC 7-3 7
14 West Virginia 8-1 2
15 Auburn 7-3 6
16 LSU 6-3 8
17 Florida State 7-3 1
18 Nebraska 8-2 1
19 Tennessee 7-3 NR
20 Boise State 9-1 2
21 Western Michigan 10-0 —
22 Washington State 8-2 1
23 Florida 7-2 NR
24 Stanford 7-3 NR
25 Texas A&M 7-3 17

Dropped from rankings: Virginia Tech 14, North Carolina 17, Arkansas 25
AP Top 25

RK TEAM REC PTS TREND
1 Alabama(61) 10-0 1525 —
2 Ohio State 9-1 1455 4
3 Louisville 9-1 1357 2
4 Michigan 9-1 1323 2
5 Clemson 9-1 1304 2
6 Wisconsin 8-2 1214 1
7 Washington 9-1 1150 3
8 Oklahoma 8-2 1064 1
9 Penn State 8-2 961 3
10 West Virginia 8-1 920 1
11 Utah 8-2 807 2
12 Colorado 8-2 797 4
13 Oklahoma State 8-2 659 4
14 Western Michigan 10-0 634 —
15 USC 7-3 584 NR
16 LSU 6-3 582 3
17 Florida State 7-3 569 3
18 Auburn 7-3 543 10
19 Nebraska 8-2 504 2
20 Washington State 8-2 501 3
21 Florida 7-2 435 1
22 Boise State 9-1 315 2
23 Texas A&M 7-3 238 13
24 San Diego State 9-1 97 NR
25 Troy 8-1 63 NR

Complete Rankings

Dropped from rankings: North Carolina 15, Virginia Tech 18, Baylor 25
Others receiving votes: Houston 49, North Carolina 40, Virginia Tech 36, Tennessee 21, Navy 20, Stanford 16, Western Kentucky 11, Pittsburgh 9, South Florida 8, Arkansas 7, Iowa 4, Ole Miss 2, Minnesota 1

Coaches Poll

RK TEAM REC PTS TREND
1 Alabama(63) 10-0 1575 —
2 Ohio State 9-1 1495 3
3 Louisville 9-1 1418 3
4 Michigan 9-1 1332 1
5 Clemson 9-1 1318 3
6 Wisconsin 8-2 1231 1
7 Washington 9-1 1190 3
8 Oklahoma 8-2 1147 1
9 West Virginia 8-1 994 1
10 Penn State 8-2 923 4
11 Utah 8-2 909 1
12 Colorado 8-2 861 3
13 Oklahoma State 8-2 745 4
14 LSU 6-3 572 5
15 Florida State 7-3 559 3
16 Auburn 7-3 542 8
17 Nebraska 8-2 541 3
18 Florida 7-2 538 2
19 USC 7-3 473 NR
20 Washington State 8-2 438 3
21 Western Michigan 10-0 431 —
22 Texas A&M 7-3 396 11
23 Boise State 9-1 355 1
24 North Carolina 7-3 114 11
25 San Diego State 9-1 112 NR

Complete Rankings

Dropped from rankings: Virginia Tech 22, Baylor 25
Others receiving votes: Houston 60, Navy 43, South Florida 43, Virginia Tech 39, Troy 28, Tennessee 20, Stanford 16, Pittsburgh 6, Arkansas 5, Toledo 3, Baylor 2, Iowa 1

[Wannabe MEP]

I love this "Playoff Predictor" tool from 538: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/.

You can play with different outcomes -- see what the model thinks will happen if different teams win out. Based on this model, here are some different tiers for how well teams control their own destiny.

Tier 1 – in barring epic collapse

Alabama

Tier 2 - win out and you're (very likely) in

1. Michigan
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington

Tier 3 - win out and you've got a real chance (minimum 30%), but you need things to break right

1. Wisconsin
2. Louisville
3. Colorado
4. Oklahoma
5. Washington St.

[bondom34]

Leggo Houston, keep it up.

[hermes]

top four remain the same (bama, osu, michigan, clem)

washington stays ahead of wis/psu and oklahoma stays behind those two

and western michigan is now behind both boise and houston

[Wannabe MEP]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/

Tier 1 – in barring epic collapse

Alabama

Tier 2 - win out and you're (very likely) in

1. Michigan
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington

Tier 3 - win out and you've got a real chance (minimum 30%), but you need things to break right

1. Wisconsin
2. Colorado
3. Oklahoma
4. Penn State (Caveat: Penn State has a real chance if they win out and Ohio State beats Michigan, because then winning out means winning the conference.)

It's certainly still possible that we resolve to something clean, like four conference champions with at most one loss: Bama, Michigan, Clemson, and Washington. But the numbers are very much against that scenario: the probability that Michigan, Clemson, and Washington all win out is only 8.3%. It's much more likely that we'll be weighing two-loss conference champions for the final slot -- some combo of Oklahoma, Colorado, Wisconsin/Penn State. Right now the model likes the Big Ten champion, and then Oklahoma vs Colorado gets heated (leans Colorado).

[OsuCavsfan103]

Have to imagine rankings will now look like this Tues:
1-Bama
2- OSU
3- Clem
4- Was
5- UM
6- Wisc
7- PSU

UM stays ahead of Wisc and PSU bc of wins over both h-2-h and same record now PSU would have to leap up 3 spots and OSU would have to fall 3 spots to get in (barring Was or Clem losing title game)

I just don't see PSU being able to make that big of leap unless they absolutely throttle Wisconsin. B10 title or not, the committee is going to have a tough time justifying dropping OSU 3 spots and leaping PSU up 3 spots.

[bwgood77]

After Week 14 - CFP Rankings to come later this week

AP Top 25

RK TEAM REC PTS TREND
1 Alabama(61) 12-0 1525 —
2 Ohio State 11-1 1456 —
3 Clemson 11-1 1383 1
4 Washington 11-1 1298 2
5 Michigan 10-2 1264 2
6 Wisconsin 10-2 1237 1
7 Oklahoma 9-2 1141 —
8 Penn State 10-2 1118 —
9 Colorado 10-2 1035 —
10 USC 9-3 948 2
11 Oklahoma State 9-2 931 1
12 Florida State 9-3 847 3
13 Western Michigan 12-0 807 1
14 West Virginia 9-2 726 5
15 Florida 8-3 471 2
16 Louisville 9-3 468 5
17 Stanford 9-3 452 NR
18 Auburn 8-4 423 2
19 Virginia Tech 9-3 420 NR
20 Navy 9-2 387 NR
21 LSU 7-4 338 4
22 Iowa 8-4 217 NR
23 Nebraska 9-3 181 6
24 Pittsburgh 8-4 168 NR
South Florida 10-2 168 NR

Complete Rankings

Dropped from rankings: Houston 18, Boise State 20, Utah 21, Texas A&M 22, Washington State 23, Tennessee 24
Others receiving votes: Houston 98, Boise State 92, Utah 88, Washington State 35, Texas A&M 33, Air Force 22, Temple 21, Tennessee 12, Troy 7, Miami 5, Georgia Tech 2, Tulsa 1

Coaches Poll

RK TEAM REC PTS TREND
1 Alabama(64) 12-0 1600 —
2 Ohio State 11-1 1520 —
3 Clemson 11-1 1475 —
4 Washington 11-1 1388 1
5 Wisconsin 10-2 1298 1
6 Michigan 10-2 1265 2
7 Oklahoma 9-2 1223 —
8 Penn State 10-2 1156 —
9 Colorado 10-2 1116 —
10 Oklahoma State 9-2 1018 —
11 USC 9-3 965 1
12 Florida State 9-3 902 2
13 West Virginia 9-2 814 4
14 Western Michigan 12-0 659 4
15 Louisville 9-3 554 4
16 Florida 8-3 515 3
17 Stanford 9-3 474 NR
18 Virginia Tech 9-3 467 NR
19 Auburn 8-4 442 3
20 Navy 9-2 380 NR
21 LSU 7-4 315 NR
22 Nebraska 9-3 309 7
23 South Florida 10-2 237 NR
24 Utah 8-4 159 4
25 Iowa 8-4 114 NR

Complete Rankings

Dropped from rankings: Boise State 19, Houston 21, Texas A&M 22, Washington State 23, Tennessee 24, North Carolina 25
Others receiving votes: Boise State 93, Houston 58, Pittsburgh 56, Washington State 44, Texas A&M 34, Miami 34, Temple 26, Tennessee 23, San Diego State 18, Air Force 12, Georgia Tech 9, North Carolina 9, Minnesota 6, Tulsa 5, Appalachian State 3, Western Kentucky 2, Middle Tennessee 1, Troy 1, Wyoming 1

[bwgood77]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/

Tier 1 – in barring epic collapse

Alabama

Tier 2 - win out and you're (very likely) in

1. Michigan
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington

Tier 3 - win out and you've got a real chance (minimum 30%), but you need things to break right

1. Wisconsin
2. Colorado
3. Oklahoma
4. Penn State (Caveat: Penn State has a real chance if they win out and Ohio State beats Michigan, because then winning out means winning the conference.)

It's certainly still possible that we resolve to something clean, like four conference champions with at most one loss: Bama, Michigan, Clemson, and Washington. But the numbers are very much against that scenario: the probability that Michigan, Clemson, and Washington all win out is only 8.3%. It's much more likely that we'll be weighing two-loss conference champions for the final slot -- some combo of Oklahoma, Colorado, Wisconsin/Penn State. Right now the model likes the Big Ten champion, and then Oklahoma vs Colorado gets heated (leans Colorado).

So what are your thoughts now? IMO, normally without regards to rankings I would say the four conference champions should get in, particularly if they all win their conference championship. But considering Ohio St is so much higher ranked than Penn St, only has one loss, as opposed to two, and Washington, if they beat Colorado, will have only one loss, to a good top 10 USC 1 loss team (and Penn St's loss other than to Michigan was to Pitt), that Washington should get in. Not sure CFP people would think that way, considering OSU gets in and Penn St beat them.

That all being said, it wouldn't surprise me if Colorado beats Washington. Of course Wisconsin could easily beat Penn St as well, and their two losses will have been to OSU and Michigan and they'd be a conference winner and their argument (if they win and UW wins) seems like it would be better than Penn St's. (if they win and UW wins).

But bondom34 has two teams to pull for this weekend. Penn St, of course, and Colorado.

Though they would almost be in the same boat as well, since Colorado's losses (road losses to Michigan, USC) are better than Penn St's (Michigan, Pitt). Wisconsin/Colorado is a bit more of a toss up. Wisconsin with better losses, but with who the voters consider being the best Big 10 team (OSU) getting in, should a Big 10 champ earn a spot as the second team getting in over a clear winner of the Pac 12? I do wonder if Colorado would leap either Big 10 team in the rankings having beaten a higher ranked team (Washington) than whoever the Big 10 team beats.

[Wannabe MEP]

So what are your thoughts now?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/

Scenario 1: Favorites All Win (% is 538 projected probability of making the playoff)

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Washington -- 91%
3. Clemson -- 89%
4. Ohio State -- 78%
5. Wisconsin -- 39%

Scenario 2: Colorado & Wisconsin Win

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Clemson -- 98%
3. Ohio State -- 92%
4. Wisconsin -- 81%
5. Colorado -- 15%
6. Oklahoma -- 11%

Scenario 3: Colorado & Penn State Win

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Clemson -- >99%
3. Ohio State -- 95%
4. Penn State -- 53%
5. Colorado -- 29%
6. Oklahoma -- 20%

Scenario 4: Clemson Loses; Colorado Wins

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Ohio State -- 98%
3. Wisconsin -- 96% / Penn State -- 81%
4. Colorado -- 60% / 50%
5. Oklahoma -- 40% / 44%

To me the biggest debate is comparing two-loss conference champions: Wisconsin/Penn State vs Colorado vs Oklahoma, which could be for one or two slots. I think that's a really, really tough call => depending on how you weigh things, you could make an argument for any of them.

I think they should all be in...in an eight-team playoff.

There's definitely the potential for a dominant/horrible performance next week to swing things.

[bleu]

So what are your thoughts now?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/

Scenario 1: Favorites All Win (% is 538 projected probability of making the playoff)

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Washington -- 91%
3. Clemson -- 89%
4. Ohio State -- 78%
5. Wisconsin -- 39%

Scenario 2: Colorado & Wisconsin Win

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Clemson -- 98%
3. Ohio State -- 92%
4. Wisconsin -- 81%
5. Colorado -- 15%
6. Oklahoma -- 11%

Scenario 3: Colorado & Penn State Win

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Clemson -- >99%
3. Ohio State -- 95%
4. Penn State -- 53%
5. Colorado -- 29%
6. Oklahoma -- 20%

Scenario 4: Clemson Loses; Colorado Wins

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Ohio State -- 98%
3. Wisconsin -- 96% / Penn State -- 81%
4. Colorado -- 60% / 50%
5. Oklahoma -- 40% / 44%

To me the biggest debate is comparing two-loss conference champions: Wisconsin/Penn State vs Colorado vs Oklahoma, which could be for one or two slots. I think that's a really, really tough call => depending on how you weigh things, you could make an argument for any of them.

I think they should all be in...in an eight-team playoff.

There's definitely the potential for a dominant/horrible performance next week to swing things.

Thanks for posting this, I find this kind of stuff very interesting.

This year to me is as good of an argument as any that we NEED an eight-team playoff. Just about everyone knows it, lets make it happen. This year if all favorites win out it would likely look like:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Washington
5. Wisconsin
6. Oklahoma
7. Michigan
8. WMU/USC/Colorado

THAT would be awesome. I would watch every minute of every one of those games.

[OsuCavsfan103]

So what are your thoughts now?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/

Scenario 1: Favorites All Win (% is 538 projected probability of making the playoff)

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Washington -- 91%
3. Clemson -- 89%
4. Ohio State -- 78%
5. Wisconsin -- 39%

Scenario 2: Colorado & Wisconsin Win

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Clemson -- 98%
3. Ohio State -- 92%
4. Wisconsin -- 81%
5. Colorado -- 15%
6. Oklahoma -- 11%

Scenario 3: Colorado & Penn State Win

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Clemson -- >99%
3. Ohio State -- 95%
4. Penn State -- 53%
5. Colorado -- 29%
6. Oklahoma -- 20%

Scenario 4: Clemson Loses; Colorado Wins

1. Alabama -- >99%
2. Ohio State -- 98%
3. Wisconsin -- 96% / Penn State -- 81%
4. Colorado -- 60% / 50%
5. Oklahoma -- 40% / 44%

To me the biggest debate is comparing two-loss conference champions: Wisconsin/Penn State vs Colorado vs Oklahoma, which could be for one or two slots. I think that's a really, really tough call => depending on how you weigh things, you could make an argument for any of them.

I think they should all be in...in an eight-team playoff.

There's definitely the potential for a dominant/horrible performance next week to swing things.

Interesting, seems they think/predict OSU has a great shot to get in no matter what going by their percentages.

Agreed it's time for an 8 team playoff. I am actually a big fan of 6 team playoff, but 8 teams would be much better than 4. No more than 8 though.

[Cactus Jack]

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[OsuCavsfan103]

Well it certainly seems even more now like OSU is a lock. Just from how the guy was talking, it doesn't seem the committee thinks PSU is a top 4 team. He spent more time making it sound like UM almost was ranked #4, it really seems as though the committee sees PSU as truely 3rd or 4th best in B10, so again PSU is going to have to massacre Wisc to get in I say. Starting to wonder if committee would put UM in over Clemson or Washington if one of them loses, which would be pretty unfair to PSU I'd say personally even though I do think UM is a better team.

[El Turco]

they need to do away with the divisions. osu, michigan and psu are the most successful programs in big ten historically and there is no point penalizing them for being in the same group. just have the top 2 teams play for the title.

[Cactus Jack]

they need to do away with the divisions. osu, michigan and psu are the most successful programs in big ten historically and there is no point penalizing them for being in the same group. just have the top 2 teams play for the title.

I'm almost certain that if your Buckeyes were ranked 3rd or 4th, you would argue otherwise. I think most agree that an 8 team playoff makes the most sense.