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Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
Here's the list of guys that averaged 22 pts on 60% TS. About 90% of them are guys you can argue are top 25 all time.
If Lauri gives the team 20 pts (I could see ppg being 22 or so) at 57% TS next season, I just don't see how that would be considered pessimistic.
If Lauri gives the team 20 pts (I could see ppg being 22 or so) at 57% TS next season, I just don't see how that would be considered pessimistic.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
RedBulls23 wrote:https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=22&c2stat=ts_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=60&order_by=ws
Here's the list of guys that averaged 22 pts on 60% TS. About 90% of them are guys you can argue are top 25 all time.
If Lauri gives the team 20 pts (I could see ppg being 22 or so) at 57% TS next season, I just don't see how that would be considered pessimistic.
Holy URL Batman!! That’s one mess of a link.
For those that don’t know, a simple [url=insert link]Insert text you’d like those reading to see[/url] can really clean up a post. You can also insert the link into your statement like:
Here's the list of guys that averaged 22 pts on 60% TS .....
As to the post... Agreed RB. If Lauri puts up those numbers offensively, I’ll be really happy. It’d show some damn nice growth.
Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
AKfanatic wrote:RedBulls23 wrote:https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=22&c2stat=ts_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=60&order_by=ws
Here's the list of guys that averaged 22 pts on 60% TS. About 90% of them are guys you can argue are top 25 all time.
If Lauri gives the team 20 pts (I could see ppg being 22 or so) at 57% TS next season, I just don't see how that would be considered pessimistic.
Holy URL Batman!! That’s one mess of a link.
For those that don’t know, a simple [url=insert link]Insert text you’d like those reading to see[/url] can really clean up a post. You can also insert the link into your statement like:
Here's the list of guys that averaged 22 pts on 60% TS .....
As to the post... Agreed RB. If Lauri puts up those numbers offensively, I’ll be really happy. It’d show some damn nice growth.
I'm on my phone so it's harder to do much of these things. I'll clean it up in a second.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
RedBulls23 wrote:Here's the list of guys that averaged 22 pts on 60% TS. About 90% of them are guys you can argue are top 25 all time.
If Lauri gives the team 20 pts (I could see ppg being 22 or so) at 57% TS next season, I just don't see how that would be considered pessimistic.
Nice list . Lauri will be on there soon enough. Anyway, that's again per game not per 36 mins. Here is that list (along with minutes qualifier):http://bkref.com/tiny/hO2G4 Alot more people have accomplished that including people like JR Smith

Anyway, you are mixing two different topics. One is my prediction (22 ppg @ 60%TS) and the other is expectations (20 ppg @ 57%TS).
The prediction is what it is, a prediction. You can disagree with it sure. (By the way Lauri's career mpg average is 31 mpg. Putting up 22 ppg p36 is equivalent to 19 ppg for Lauri @ 31 mpg, that's less than your prediction. I am expecting him to SCORE LESS with BETTER EFFICIENCY. Lauri at 20 ppg @ 31 mins = 23.2pgg p36)
As for expectations, Lauri was already at 21 ppg p36 @ 57%TS (or 19.7ppg @ 57TS% per 33.3 minutes he played) so for him to put up 20 PPG @ 57% in 36 minutes is less than what he was doing == disappointment. If that is truly his statline next season, that means again injuries derailed him or his game didn't improve AT ALL which is cause for concern.
Now if you want to bring up lists to try disqualifying him and hampering expectations, I will bring this list up again: http://bkref.com/tiny/p2n03 Again, his sophomore season, with disappointing overall numbers, he is already clustered with all-stars. The next progression up is superstars and multiple year super stars are HOFers so yes, we want Lauri to reach that list you gave us.
Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
RedBulls23 wrote:AKfanatic wrote:RedBulls23 wrote:https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=22&c2stat=ts_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=60&order_by=ws
Here's the list of guys that averaged 22 pts on 60% TS. About 90% of them are guys you can argue are top 25 all time.
If Lauri gives the team 20 pts (I could see ppg being 22 or so) at 57% TS next season, I just don't see how that would be considered pessimistic.
Holy URL Batman!! That’s one mess of a link.
For those that don’t know, a simple [url=insert link]Insert text you’d like those reading to see[/url] can really clean up a post. You can also insert the link into your statement like:
Here's the list of guys that averaged 22 pts on 60% TS .....
As to the post... Agreed RB. If Lauri puts up those numbers offensively, I’ll be really happy. It’d show some damn nice growth.
I'm on my phone so it's harder to do much of these things. I'll clean it up in a second.
Not really targeting you RB, as I know you are aware of how to do that.... more a “public service announcement” for posters that don’t know how to do it in a topic that i knew most Bulls posters would view.
I’m actually really hopeful that Lauri puts up 20 on a strong TS this season. I’m not expecting him to average much more than that given he should be sharing the court with guys that are all decent offensive options. I’m expecting Zach, Otto, and Wendell all to average 14-15 + with Sato being a decent threat and the bench having a few guys that are more capable as scorers this season. For the first time in a long time, I’m pretty confident in the Bulls offense...we’ve got some really solid potential on that end.
Unless Lauri is thrust into a role, due to injuries, where he really is forced to carry the offense... I can’t imagine him scoring more that 20-22 per. though he’ll definitely have weeks here and there where he averages close to, or above 30 per.
This could be the first fun season for Bulls fans in quite a few years if things break right.
Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
PaKii94 wrote:RedBulls23 wrote:Here's the list of guys that averaged 22 pts on 60% TS. About 90% of them are guys you can argue are top 25 all time.
If Lauri gives the team 20 pts (I could see ppg being 22 or so) at 57% TS next season, I just don't see how that would be considered pessimistic.
Nice list . Lauri will be on there soon enough. Anyway, that's again per game not per 36 mins. Here is that list (along with minutes qualifier):http://bkref.com/tiny/hO2G4 Alot more people have accomplished that including people like JR Smith![]()
Anyway, you are mixing two different topics. One is my prediction (22 ppg @ 60%TS) and the other is expectations (20 ppg @ 57%TS).
The prediction is what it is, a prediction. You can disagree with it sure. (By the way Lauri's career mpg average is 31 mpg. Putting up 22 ppg p36 is equivalent to 19 ppg for Lauri @ 31 mpg, that's less than your prediction. I am expecting him to SCORE LESS with BETTER EFFICIENCY. Lauri at 20 ppg @ 31 mins = 23.2pgg p36)
As for expectations, Lauri was already at 21 ppg p36 @ 57%TS (or 19.7ppg @ 57TS% per 33.3 minutes he played) so for him to put up 20 PPG @ 57% in 36 minutes is less than what he was doing == disappointment. If that is truly his statline next season, that means again injuries derailed him or his game didn't improve AT ALL which is cause for concern.
Now if you want to bring up lists to try disqualifying him and hampering expectations, I will bring this list up again: http://bkref.com/tiny/p2n03 Again, his sophomore season, with disappointing overall numbers, he is already clustered with all-stars. The next progression up is superstars and multiple year super stars are HOFers so yes, we want Lauri to reach that list you gave us.
Yes we want Lauri to reach the list. We also want LaVine to reach that list, WCJ to reach that list, Coby White to reach that list, etc. Doesn't mean that should be considered realistic expectations.
All you've done tbh is assumed that IF Lauri was healthy the entire season he would have averaged those numbers last year. That's not how it works. We can go through any player and just remove the bad parts of their seasons (many players have injury issues or are banged throughout the season) and then just assume the best parts are their ceiling for an entire season, and not just hot streaks based on small sample size.
And the reason why I keep putting up per game averages is because he has yet to prove he can play more than 36 minutes, but I also added that maybe he could push to 21/22 ppg or something like that.
In the end, like I said I hope you're right. I'll believe it when I see it. Where him becoming an elite player in his 3rd year when he hasn't consistently even been an allstar player just yet as far as his whole game is concerned statistically across the board.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
RedBulls23 wrote:
All you've done tbh is assumed that IF Lauri was healthy the entire season he would have averaged those numbers last year.
...
And the reason why I keep putting up ppg is because he has yet to prove he can play more than 36 minutes.
In the end, like I said I hope you're right. I'll believe it when I see it.
Yes, that's where our dissagreement lies. I don't believe the games ending Lauri's season are valid for interpreting his game. To me they were clear outlier games (caused by fatigue). This fatigue was said to be a one time thing and an extreme condition. It wasn't part of the ebb and flow of the season. I did not cherry pick Lauri's good games. I showed you his stats as the season went on where he steadily was increasing his game leading to February and then it totally fell off the cliff in the 4th OT of the first game of the back to back ATL games.
If you believe those games are valid and is a normal "slump" for him and that it could happen again, and if I was to believe that, then I would strongly want to trade Lauri. We can't have a player putting up super star numbers one day and then randomly dropping to 10th man levels due to random fatigue.
As far as p36 mins, that's valid. I'll give my prediction in ppg then. I think he was at 19.7/9.3 on 44.5/38 @ 57%TS in 33.3 mins last year. For next year I think he goes to 21/10.2 48/40 @ 60+ TS% in 33.3 mpg. All that is asking for is a bit more consistency with his shot, slightly better finishing, and continued aggression (at least at 80% of what he was doing in Feb) on the boards. This isn't including any type of volume increase. That's what I think we all want to see and expect from him. If he does that, his TS is easily above 60%. I think Lauri can do that if he's not recovering from a serious elbow injury to his shooting arm this year.
The (unrealistic) optimistic view point on that is then 23/12 50/40 @ 60+ TS% in 33.3 mpg which is clear superstar numbers
Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
PaKii94 wrote:RedBulls23 wrote:
All you've done tbh is assumed that IF Lauri was healthy the entire season he would have averaged those numbers last year.
...
And the reason why I keep putting up ppg is because he has yet to prove he can play more than 36 minutes.
In the end, like I said I hope you're right. I'll believe it when I see it.
Yes, that's where our dissagreement lies. I don't believe the games ending Lauri's season are valid for interpreting his game. To me they were clear outlier games (caused by fatigue). This fatigue was said to be a one time thing and an extreme condition. It wasn't part of the ebb and flow of the season. I did not cherry pick Lauri's good games. I showed you his stats as the season went on where he steadily was increasing his game leading to February and then it totally fell off the cliff in the 4th OT of the first game of the back to back ATL games.
If you believe those games are valid and is a normal "slump" for him and that it could happen again, and if I was to believe that, then I would strongly want to trade Lauri. We can't have a player putting up super star numbers one day and then randomly dropping to 10th man levels due to random fatigue.
As far as p36 mins, that's valid. I'll give my prediction in ppg then. I think he was at 19.7/9.3 on 44.5/38 @ 57%TS in 33.3 mins last year. For next year I think he goes to 21/10.2 48/40 @ 60+ TS% in 33.3 mpg. All that is asking for is a bit more consistency with his shot, slightly better finishing, and continued aggression (at least at 80% of what he was doing in Feb) on the boards. This isn't including any type of volume increase. That's what I think we all want to see and expect from him. If he does that, his TS is easily above 60%. I think Lauri can do that if he's not recovering from a serious elbow injury to his shooting arm this year.
The (unrealistic) optimistic view point on that is then 23/12 50/40 @ 60+ TS% in 33.3 mpg which is clear superstar numbers
I don't think the super lows will be his norm. I think we will see more consistency overall throughout the season, which is why I have his numbers improving.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
RedBulls23 wrote:PaKii94 wrote:RedBulls23 wrote:
All you've done tbh is assumed that IF Lauri was healthy the entire season he would have averaged those numbers last year.
...
And the reason why I keep putting up ppg is because he has yet to prove he can play more than 36 minutes.
In the end, like I said I hope you're right. I'll believe it when I see it.
Yes, that's where our dissagreement lies. I don't believe the games ending Lauri's season are valid for interpreting his game. To me they were clear outlier games (caused by fatigue). This fatigue was said to be a one time thing and an extreme condition. It wasn't part of the ebb and flow of the season. I did not cherry pick Lauri's good games. I showed you his stats as the season went on where he steadily was increasing his game leading to February and then it totally fell off the cliff in the 4th OT of the first game of the back to back ATL games.
If you believe those games are valid and is a normal "slump" for him and that it could happen again, and if I was to believe that, then I would strongly want to trade Lauri. We can't have a player putting up super star numbers one day and then randomly dropping to 10th man levels due to random fatigue.
As far as p36 mins, that's valid. I'll give my prediction in ppg then. I think he was at 19.7/9.3 on 44.5/38 @ 57%TS in 33.3 mins last year. For next year I think he goes to 21/10.2 48/40 @ 60+ TS% in 33.3 mpg. All that is asking for is a bit more consistency with his shot, slightly better finishing, and continued aggression (at least at 80% of what he was doing in Feb) on the boards. This isn't including any type of volume increase. That's what I think we all want to see and expect from him. If he does that, his TS is easily above 60%. I think Lauri can do that if he's not recovering from a serious elbow injury to his shooting arm this year.
The (unrealistic) optimistic view point on that is then 23/12 50/40 @ 60+ TS% in 33.3 mpg which is clear superstar numbers
I don't think the super lows will be his norm. I think we will see more consistency overall throughout the season, which is why I have his numbers improving.
Then it comes down to the 57% TS. For me, outside of the super low at the end, he was already at 57% TS and this is with what I considered a disappointing, inconsistent performance. If we are hoping for greater consistency and slight improvements from him, then automatically he should be above 57% otherwise he's still at a disappointing & inconsistent level.
Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
PaKii94 wrote:RedBulls23 wrote:PaKii94 wrote:
Yes, that's where our dissagreement lies. I don't believe the games ending Lauri's season are valid for interpreting his game. To me they were clear outlier games (caused by fatigue). This fatigue was said to be a one time thing and an extreme condition. It wasn't part of the ebb and flow of the season. I did not cherry pick Lauri's good games. I showed you his stats as the season went on where he steadily was increasing his game leading to February and then it totally fell off the cliff in the 4th OT of the first game of the back to back ATL games.
If you believe those games are valid and is a normal "slump" for him and that it could happen again, and if I was to believe that, then I would strongly want to trade Lauri. We can't have a player putting up super star numbers one day and then randomly dropping to 10th man levels due to random fatigue.
As far as p36 mins, that's valid. I'll give my prediction in ppg then. I think he was at 19.7/9.3 on 44.5/38 @ 57%TS in 33.3 mins last year. For next year I think he goes to 21/10.2 48/40 @ 60+ TS% in 33.3 mpg. All that is asking for is a bit more consistency with his shot, slightly better finishing, and continued aggression (at least at 80% of what he was doing in Feb) on the boards. This isn't including any type of volume increase. That's what I think we all want to see and expect from him. If he does that, his TS is easily above 60%. I think Lauri can do that if he's not recovering from a serious elbow injury to his shooting arm this year.
The (unrealistic) optimistic view point on that is then 23/12 50/40 @ 60+ TS% in 33.3 mpg which is clear superstar numbers
I don't think the super lows will be his norm. I think we will see more consistency overall throughout the season, which is why I have his numbers improving.
Then it comes down to the 57% TS. For me, outside of the super low at the end, he was already at 57% TS and this is with what I considered a disappointing, inconsistent performance. If we are hoping for greater consistency and slight improvements from him, then automatically he should be above 57% otherwise he's still at a disappointing & inconsistent level.
57% or even lets say he comes out at 58% would be an increase from 55% that he averaged last two season overall. So if he were to be at that, then that means he was more consistent.
A guy averaging 22 points on 57% TS in his 3rd season, at only 22 is no way a disappointment. Not to me anyways.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
In year 3, Dirk (who we tend to compare Lauri to, in jest or otherwise) made a jump and averaged 22/9 on 60% TS with a PER of 23. His PER36 numbers were actually lower since he averaged 38mpg and played ALL 82 games (pretty much unheard of in this load management era). He shot 39% from deep on almost 5 attempts per and he went to the lines 6.6 times per game. His team improved by 13 wins that season (53) before bowing out in the second round of the playoffs
Now when comparing Lauri vs Dirk second year production, Lauri actually had better stats per 36: 21/10 vs 18/6. Dirk was slightly more efficient (56.4 TS% vs 55.3%), but he also had a much better team and supporting cast around him than Lauri. His Mavs won 40 games that season.
So yeah, Dirk did make the jump into superstardom in his third year, and if Lauri can average 22/9 on 60% per game and is available for all 82 games, we've got ourselves the next Dirk.
Just for fun, the undisputed unicorn of the NBA Kristaps Porzingis made a similar jump from his 2nd to 3rd year. He went from averaging 18/7 to 23/6, and he's been even less efficient than Lauri (53% TS).
Now when comparing Lauri vs Dirk second year production, Lauri actually had better stats per 36: 21/10 vs 18/6. Dirk was slightly more efficient (56.4 TS% vs 55.3%), but he also had a much better team and supporting cast around him than Lauri. His Mavs won 40 games that season.
So yeah, Dirk did make the jump into superstardom in his third year, and if Lauri can average 22/9 on 60% per game and is available for all 82 games, we've got ourselves the next Dirk.
Just for fun, the undisputed unicorn of the NBA Kristaps Porzingis made a similar jump from his 2nd to 3rd year. He went from averaging 18/7 to 23/6, and he's been even less efficient than Lauri (53% TS).
Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
FriedRise wrote:In year 3, Dirk (who we tend to compare Lauri to, in jest or otherwise) made a jump and averaged 22/9 on 60% TS with a PER of 23. His PER36 numbers were actually lower since he averaged 38mpg and played ALL 82 games (pretty much unheard of in this load management era). He shot 39% from deep on almost 5 attempts per and he went to the lines 6.6 times per game. His team improved by 13 wins that season (53) before bowing out in the second round of the playoffs
Now when comparing Lauri vs Dirk second year production, Lauri actually had better stats per 36: 21/10 vs 18/6. Dirk was slightly more efficient (56.4 TS% vs 55.3%), but he also had a much better team and supporting cast around him than Lauri. His Mavs won 40 games that season.
So yeah, Dirk did make the jump into superstardom in his third year, and if Lauri can average 22/9 on 60% per game and is available for all 82 games, we've got ourselves the next Dirk.
Just for fun, the undisputed unicorn of the NBA Kristaps Porzingis made a similar jump from his 2nd to 3rd year. He went from averaging 18/7 to 23/6, and he's been even less efficient than Lauri (53% TS).
I tire of the comparisons to great players before they became great. Lauri isn't and isn't going to be nearly as good as Dirk. I have major doubts that he ever becomes more than a 2nd quartile starting PF (which isn't terrible unless the Bulls max him out).
To me, this is a show or go season. If he doesn't take meaningful steps forward as a 3pt shooter and defender, I want to trade him.

Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
Well Lauri is really close to elite player. And he has been some Injuries both years. And bad team also. So with good healt and better team he will put Dirk kind of numbers pretty soon.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
FriedRise wrote:In year 3, Dirk (who we tend to compare Lauri to, in jest or otherwise) made a jump and averaged 22/9 on 60% TS with a PER of 23. His PER36 numbers were actually lower since he averaged 38mpg and played ALL 82 games (pretty much unheard of in this load management era). He shot 39% from deep on almost 5 attempts per and he went to the lines 6.6 times per game. His team improved by 13 wins that season (53) before bowing out in the second round of the playoffs
Now when comparing Lauri vs Dirk second year production, Lauri actually had better stats per 36: 21/10 vs 18/6. Dirk was slightly more efficient (56.4 TS% vs 55.3%), but he also had a much better team and supporting cast around him than Lauri. His Mavs won 40 games that season.
So yeah, Dirk did make the jump into superstardom in his third year, and if Lauri can average 22/9 on 60% per game and is available for all 82 games, we've got ourselves the next Dirk.
Just for fun, the undisputed unicorn of the NBA Kristaps Porzingis made a similar jump from his 2nd to 3rd year. He went from averaging 18/7 to 23/6, and he's been even less efficient than Lauri (53% TS).
Dirk was big in era where bigs didnt do what he do. Being efficient as him in that era where everything is pain in ass to score where, floors arent spread, yet being completely different kind of big. He did something unique. Today everyone does what Lauri does from skillset stand point. He doesnt do anything different (yet) which makes him exactly unicorn.
Zingis was called unicorn because he was 7'3 guy who could shoot and create with rim protection.
Even if Lauri puts 22/9 at 60TS it will help, it wont matter in grand scheme of things. Unless he gets unstoppable at shot creation for 7-footer, crossing over bigs, handle double teams and hit over double teams, hit EVERY SINGLE open shot etc. Stats matter, but in context. He needs to be unicorn in skillset to make difference to what any other big is doing today. Spacing the floor and be PnR threat with occasional drive to the basket.
Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
RedBulls23 wrote:PaKii94 wrote:RedBulls23 wrote:I don't think the super lows will be his norm. I think we will see more consistency overall throughout the season, which is why I have his numbers improving.
Then it comes down to the 57% TS. For me, outside of the super low at the end, he was already at 57% TS and this is with what I considered a disappointing, inconsistent performance. If we are hoping for greater consistency and slight improvements from him, then automatically he should be above 57% otherwise he's still at a disappointing & inconsistent level.
57% or even lets say he comes out at 58% would be an increase from 55% that he averaged last two season overall. So if he were to be at that, then that means he was more consistent.
A guy averaging 22 points on 57% TS in his 3rd season, at only 22 is no way a disappointment. Not to me anyways.
We'll agree to disagree after this but the 55% to me is not a good indicator of his level right now. For the rookie season, sure. He had his ups and down like you said and it would be unfair to cherry pick his season. For the sophomore season, he played at 20 ppg @ 57%TS for half a season (40 games) before the fatigue derailed him. You also have to include the caveat of the elbow injury. How much did it happen his true levels? From his performance in Feb, I would say a decent amount.
So for him to average 20 ppg @ 57%TS after a healthy offseason and what should be a third year leap IS a disappointment.
Also, there is I would say a significant difference if he's averaging 20ppg @ 57TS% and 22 ppg @ 57TS% so I'd be careful in which number you want to say is NOT a dissapointment. 20ppg in my eyes is what he was already doing. 22 ppg would definitely be an improvement (and not a disappointment) due to maintaining efficiency with a 10%+ increase in volume. However I am optimistic for an even greater improvement which would come with a more consistent shot/finishing & easier looks due to better teammates (increase in efficiency) and becoming a locked in primary option (increase in volume)
Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
TheFinishSniper wrote:FriedRise wrote:In year 3, Dirk (who we tend to compare Lauri to, in jest or otherwise) made a jump and averaged 22/9 on 60% TS with a PER of 23. His PER36 numbers were actually lower since he averaged 38mpg and played ALL 82 games (pretty much unheard of in this load management era). He shot 39% from deep on almost 5 attempts per and he went to the lines 6.6 times per game. His team improved by 13 wins that season (53) before bowing out in the second round of the playoffs
Now when comparing Lauri vs Dirk second year production, Lauri actually had better stats per 36: 21/10 vs 18/6. Dirk was slightly more efficient (56.4 TS% vs 55.3%), but he also had a much better team and supporting cast around him than Lauri. His Mavs won 40 games that season.
So yeah, Dirk did make the jump into superstardom in his third year, and if Lauri can average 22/9 on 60% per game and is available for all 82 games, we've got ourselves the next Dirk.
Just for fun, the undisputed unicorn of the NBA Kristaps Porzingis made a similar jump from his 2nd to 3rd year. He went from averaging 18/7 to 23/6, and he's been even less efficient than Lauri (53% TS).
Dirk was big in era where bigs didnt do what he do. Being efficient as him in that era where everything is pain in ass to score where, floors arent spread, yet being completely different kind of big. He did something unique. Today everyone does what Lauri does from skillset stand point. He doesnt do anything different (yet) which makes him exactly unicorn.
Zingis was called unicorn because he was 7'3 guy who could shoot and create with rim protection.
Even if Lauri puts 22/9 at 60TS it will help, it wont matter in grand scheme of things. Unless he gets unstoppable at shot creation for 7-footer, crossing over bigs, handle double teams and hit over double teams, hit EVERY SINGLE open shot etc. Stats matter, but in context. He needs to be unicorn in skillset to make difference to what any other big is doing today. Spacing the floor and be PnR threat with occasional drive to the basket.
I think the unicorn in Lauri's game will be the elite level scoring with elite level efficiency which I think he can reach. I agree with what you said about KP in that he was the unicorn because of the rim protection but his offensive side was actually really disappointing for a 7+ footer. His efficiency was downright bad for wings let alone bigs and his rebounding is laughably bad too.
Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
I think the real debate is whether Lauri can become our #1/1A offensive option as a PF - scoring efficiently on volume against PF's and SF's. A number of folks (IMO wrongly) are saying Lauri should be used as much as possible at C so that he can use his speed against slower C's.

Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri
We all know that offseason workout videos and/or interviews are often nothing but useless fluff, edited to show a player in the best possible light.
However...
I can't seem to shake the nagging feeling that we should've heard or seen something from Lauri this summer. He's literally given zero hints that he's actually been working hard to eliminate the specific holes in his game. While nobody forces him to keep the fanbase up to date on these things, it does speak of a lack of urgency by him regarding his development as a player.
Lauri is simply not at a level where he can spend the offseason chilling with friends and family, campaigning against climate change and building even more mass in the weight room (something we HAVE seem him doing, unfortunately). This should be the time where he's really laying the foundation for his next big contract. If he comes to training camp with a game identical to last season, I'm going to be shocked and disappointed.
That means the team is either giving him bad advice or he's not taking the right advice seriously enough.
Here's the million dollar question... Is Lauri really hungry? I'd like nothing more than to confidently be able to say "of course he is".
But I just can't.
However...
I can't seem to shake the nagging feeling that we should've heard or seen something from Lauri this summer. He's literally given zero hints that he's actually been working hard to eliminate the specific holes in his game. While nobody forces him to keep the fanbase up to date on these things, it does speak of a lack of urgency by him regarding his development as a player.
Lauri is simply not at a level where he can spend the offseason chilling with friends and family, campaigning against climate change and building even more mass in the weight room (something we HAVE seem him doing, unfortunately). This should be the time where he's really laying the foundation for his next big contract. If he comes to training camp with a game identical to last season, I'm going to be shocked and disappointed.
That means the team is either giving him bad advice or he's not taking the right advice seriously enough.
Here's the million dollar question... Is Lauri really hungry? I'd like nothing more than to confidently be able to say "of course he is".
But I just can't.