Peaks project update: #17

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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#41 » by No-more-rings » Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:38 am

DatAsh wrote:Think I'm going with 95 or 94 Drob here. His offensive value really does drop off a cliff in the playoffs, but he's second to only Bill Russell in the strength of playoff defenses he's led, and I think you can argue him reasonably as a top 2-5 defender of all time.

For the last spot, I'm considering 11 Dirk, 08/09 Kobe, 66-69 West, 16 Draymond, and 90 Ewing. Also, I think Giannis is on my radar. I think he's similar to Robinson in the playoffs. His offense doesn't suffer quite as much, but he's not the defender that Robinson is.

What happened to your Paul vote?
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#42 » by DatAsh » Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:45 am

No-more-rings wrote:
DatAsh wrote:Think I'm going with 95 or 94 Drob here. His offensive value really does drop off a cliff in the playoffs, but he's second to only Bill Russell in the strength of playoff defenses he's led, and I think you can argue him reasonably as a top 2-5 defender of all time.

For the last spot, I'm considering 11 Dirk, 08/09 Kobe, 66-69 West, 16 Draymond, and 90 Ewing. Also, I think Giannis is on my radar. I think he's similar to Robinson in the playoffs. His offense doesn't suffer quite as much, but he's not the defender that Robinson is.

What happened to your Paul vote?


For some reason I had it in my mind that Paul was already in. Thank you for saying something.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#43 » by liamliam1234 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:49 am

It is becoming increasingly apparent that unless the West supporters have a strong showing in the final day, Robinson will win.

Robinson supporters have essentially conceded his offensive failures in the postseason, but the back-up has been his reputedly superb defence. FrogBros made a nice case against that in a separate thread, which I will post here for discussion:

As for Robinson being the best defensive center....if you are talking about just in the playoffs over that 2 year stretch [1994-95], it's pretty clear from the numbers that Ewing played [Hakeem] the toughest, much tougher than Robinson did by any standard. Ewing set 2 Finals records for blocks (most blocks in a Finals game) and (most blocks in a 7 game series). Ewing had more blocks by halftime of game 2 of the Finals than Robinson had in all 6 games against the Rockets in 95.

If you are speaking generally that Robinson was the best defensive center behind Olajuwon of that era, that's debatable as Ewing, Mutombo and Mourning all have cases. With Robinson, it seems like a less credible claim if we are factoring his pre Duncan post seasons into the equation. I know a lot of people here have Robinson as a secret, dark horse GOAT candidate, but when we look at the playoffs as opposed to just the regular season, the evidence starts to shrink. Between Robinson's rookie year and Duncan's rookie year, the Spurs lost to a lower seed in the playoffs every year except for 93 when they lost to the #1 seed Suns (where PHX won the series on the road on an isolation play where Charles Barkley happily scored the game winning bucket on Robinson without much resistance). In all of these years, the opposing team's centers and power forwards more often than not played as well or better against the Spurs in the playoffs than they did compared to their regular season averages. We aren't just talking about Olajuwon, Barkley and Karl Malone here either....we're talking about guys like Oliver Miller, Buck Williams, Felton Spencer, Elden Campbell etc.


And given that the 1995 Rockets series has already shown how the Spurs as a team could have defensive success despite Robinson getting roasted, this should call into question the assumption most of you are making. Robinson is a great regular season player, but in the postseason, where it matters most, he needs to be a secondary player to be truly effective on offence AND defence. He does not really win series on his own (one conference finals appearance, five series wins total). He loses against teams which performed worse in the regular season. He clearly underperforms in the playoffs relative to other top defensive options (Ewing, peak Mourning, Draymond as a secondary option...). People can set their own standards for “peak”, and by regular season peak he is probably a top ten to fifteen guy, but in the playoffs he is maybe a borderline top thirty guy (on his own). Fine, we average that out a bit, but even then that should not put him at #17.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#44 » by E-Balla » Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:54 am

GeorgeMarcus wrote:
I'll start by stating that I'm not aware/in possession of reliable RAPM data prior to 94, so that's where my argument begins. D Rob's impact on wins/losses and BPM reflect very favorably pre-94, but such is life.

The Admiral ranked #1 in RAPM (by a lot) in 94. Adjusted with variance he was 7.31, followed by Kevin Willis and Karl Malone who were 5.44 and 5.37 respectively. In 95, he was #1 (once again by a lot) with 7.42 followed by Shaq and Malone who were 5.80 and 4.93. In 96 he dropped to a disappointing #2 showing with 5.89, behind only MJ at 6.67. This is very different than Zo and Draymond squeaking out a #1 spot on one occasion.

A few things here:

1. Those RAPM numbers are still rough estimates because the +/- numbers are rough estimates. Remember we don't know any pace data so we had to assume all players on the team had the same pace while on the floor. The RAPM data we commonly use past 98 uses actual on the floor team splits to estimate possessions played by the players. I wouldn't completely trust the gap he has over others here in those years, but if you do that's understandable.

2. In 94 and 95 his competition was lacking compared to Draymond and Zo. If we're talking regular season the best player in the league both years is clearly Robinson and no one else in 94 or 95 would be sniffing the list this early based on their regular seasons. Meanwhile Zo got his #1 over the #4 guy on this list and Draymond got his over the #2 guy on this list.

3. With that point made Robinson's #2 in 96 becomes more relevant. MJ is another GOAT tier guy and Robinson in a year that on paper is no worse than 94 and 95 dropped from having a huge lead in first to being second under that top tier all timer.

4. RAPM is always always always a stat going off league averages, with wildly different scales year to year. Going off RAPM we can say Robinson has the most impact in a league missing it's brightest star, but was 2nd to that star upon his return.

5. Those are also single year RAPM estimates so that adds to the unreliability. I just don't feel safe saying that those numbers were accurate enough to say anything further than David Robinson was the most impactful regular season player in the league, but in that same light remember the RAPM numbers for Dray and Zo both include the playoffs unlike Robinson.

In your other post, you made a point about Draymond's superior playoff RAPM "since 98". Don't you see the problem there? That removes D Rob's peak completely and hones in on his post injury years.

Well like I said that's as far back as we can go. Either way the point wasn't really his playoff RAPM being superior to Robinson's as much as it was that it was superior to every player in the league other than LeBron James (#2 on this list) who he's equal to according to playoff RAPM.

Would you expect prime Robinson to also match LeBron in postseason RAPM?

Which, oddly enough, he was still able to grind out the best playoff RAPM in the league when the Spurs won it in 99 (more than triple that of Finals MVP Duncan).

If you used that one site that claims to have playoff RAPM and regular season RAPM split up to get this, it's inaccurate. Their calculations are wildly off the original RAPM numbers and with no explanation as to why there's a difference I don't think it's useful.

Now we do have 98 and 99 RAPM overall and Duncan topped Robinson in 98 RAPM (I mentioned before Robinson was one spot over Ewing and he was also one spot under rookie Duncan). In 99 Robinson was 3rd in RAPM and Duncan was 10th, but now we're comparing a 32 mpg guy to a 39 mpg guy and a guy relied on to be a defender to a guy relied on to play on both ends. That's why I'm not a big fan of comparing RAPM of players in completely different roles, it becomes a measure of something different when your role is narrow.

That is exactly what I mean by my Embiid comparison and defensive impact being overlooked. Duncan was a smoother operator and the go-to option on offense, but his defense wasn't D Rob level (nor would it ever be, as good as he was).

D Rob's defense wasn't the end all be all anyway though. In 99 (using it because you mentioned 99, it is his strongest +/- year on record too) for example Dikembe lapped the competition (no seriously, Deke is the DRAPM GOAT and it's not even close) and Robinson was barely over Zo and Sheed in DRAPM. Duncan has had similar results to guys like Zo and Sheed in other years, just not in 99 when he was a 2nd year player. I don't think that's a strong criticism of his game, or the game of others. If he had a Deke like lead over the field I'd see it.

And to you Embiid point I got why you mentioned him but we can point to his defensive impact vastly increasing in the postseason. We can't do the same for Robinson, especially in the 90s. Why should we assume he did have a step up like Embiid did in his impact without the numbers or team success to prove it? I mean the Sixers went from a +20 team to a -20 team without Embiid on the court, that's drastic.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#45 » by DatAsh » Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:54 am

liamliam1234 wrote:It is becoming increasingly apparent that unless the West supporters have a strong showing in the final day, Robinson will win.

Robinson supporters have essentially conceded his offensive failures in the postseason, but the back-up has been his reputedly superb defence. FrogBros made a nice case against that in a separate thread, which I will post here for discussion:

As for Robinson being the best defensive center....if you are talking about just in the playoffs over that 2 year stretch [1994-95], it's pretty clear from the numbers that Ewing played [Hakeem] the toughest, much tougher than Robinson did by any standard. Ewing set 2 Finals records for blocks (most blocks in a Finals game) and (most blocks in a 7 game series). Ewing had more blocks by halftime of game 2 of the Finals than Robinson had in all 6 games against the Rockets in 95.

If you are speaking generally that Robinson was the best defensive center behind Olajuwon of that era, that's debatable as Ewing, Mutombo and Mourning all have cases. With Robinson, it seems like a less credible claim if we are factoring his pre Duncan post seasons into the equation. I know a lot of people here have Robinson as a secret, dark horse GOAT candidate, but when we look at the playoffs as opposed to just the regular season, the evidence starts to shrink. Between Robinson's rookie year and Duncan's rookie year, the Spurs lost to a lower seed in the playoffs every year except for 93 when they lost to the #1 seed Suns (where PHX won the series on the road on an isolation play where Charles Barkley happily scored the game winning bucket on Robinson without much resistance). In all of these years, the opposing team's centers and power forwards more often than not played as well or better against the Spurs in the playoffs than they did compared to their regular season averages. We aren't just talking about Olajuwon, Barkley and Karl Malone here either....we're talking about guys like Oliver Miller, Buck Williams, Felton Spencer, Elden Campbell etc.


And given that the 1995 Rockets series has already shown how the Spurs as a team could have defensive success despite Robinson getting roasted, this should call into question the assumption most of you are making. Robinson is a great regular season player, but in the postseason, where it matters most, he needs to be a secondary player to be truly effective on offence AND defence.


This is a great, and needed post. My argument to this is that a centers ability to limit the opposing team's offense is more important than his ability to limit the opposing center's offense. Many might argue that Wilt limited opposing centers more than Russell, but none would argue that he limited opposing teams more.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#46 » by liamliam1234 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:06 am

Alright, and that seems to correspond well to his role on Duncan’s Spurs, but then you need to be able to demonstrate (the way we can with Russell) that, as a solo act, Robinson’s overall team defensive support far exceeded his big-to-big defence, and then that becomes effectively his entire playoff case. Tall order compared to the defensive playoff stars Eballa has been mentioning.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#47 » by E-Balla » Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:15 am

liamliam1234 wrote:It is becoming increasingly apparent that unless the West supporters have a strong showing in the final day, Robinson will win.

Robinson supporters have essentially conceded his offensive failures in the postseason, but the back-up has been his reputedly superb defence. FrogBros made a nice case against that in a separate thread, which I will post here for discussion:

As for Robinson being the best defensive center....if you are talking about just in the playoffs over that 2 year stretch [1994-95], it's pretty clear from the numbers that Ewing played [Hakeem] the toughest, much tougher than Robinson did by any standard. Ewing set 2 Finals records for blocks (most blocks in a Finals game) and (most blocks in a 7 game series). Ewing had more blocks by halftime of game 2 of the Finals than Robinson had in all 6 games against the Rockets in 95.

If you are speaking generally that Robinson was the best defensive center behind Olajuwon of that era, that's debatable as Ewing, Mutombo and Mourning all have cases. With Robinson, it seems like a less credible claim if we are factoring his pre Duncan post seasons into the equation. I know a lot of people here have Robinson as a secret, dark horse GOAT candidate, but when we look at the playoffs as opposed to just the regular season, the evidence starts to shrink. Between Robinson's rookie year and Duncan's rookie year, the Spurs lost to a lower seed in the playoffs every year except for 93 when they lost to the #1 seed Suns (where PHX won the series on the road on an isolation play where Charles Barkley happily scored the game winning bucket on Robinson without much resistance). In all of these years, the opposing team's centers and power forwards more often than not played as well or better against the Spurs in the playoffs than they did compared to their regular season averages. We aren't just talking about Olajuwon, Barkley and Karl Malone here either....we're talking about guys like Oliver Miller, Buck Williams, Felton Spencer, Elden Campbell etc.


And given that the 1995 Rockets series has already shown how the Spurs as a team could have defensive success despite Robinson getting roasted, this should call into question the assumption most of you are making. Robinson is a great regular season player, but in the postseason, where it matters most, he needs to be a secondary player to be truly effective on offence AND defence.

This is actually an old post I finally dug up that addresses Robinson from one of the top 100 projects. It kinda digs into what you're saying here.

E-Balla wrote:Also you mention his faceup game being deadly? Couldn't be further from the truth. It was useful in the regular season but in a 7 game series against great defenders its not trustworthy. His performances against good defenses in the playoffs are historically disappointing outside of his rookie season.

From 93-96 he played 8 series. He played good defenses 3 times (Portland in 93, Utah in 94 and 96). Outside of that he also played 2 ATG Cs (Hakeem and Mutombo in 95) and here's how he performed:

vs Portland 93 (4th ranked defense): 19.3 ppg, 2.3 orpg, 4.8 apg, 2.0 topg, 48.7 TS%, 107 ORTG. This 4 game series included a 6/20 performance and a 4/11 performance in games 1 and 2.

vs Utah 94 (7th ranked defense): 20 ppg, 3.3 orpg, 3.5 apg, 2.3 topg, 47.1 TS%, 104 ORTG. Again they lost in 4. This time lost games 2 and 3 (in a best to 3) with Robinson shooting 10-35 for 28 points in those games combined.

vs Denver 95 (with Deke): 19 ppg, 1.7 orpg, 3.3 apg, 2.0 topg, 49.3 TS%, 105 ORTG. They swept but he did struggle against Deke and they won mostly due to the offense which was flourishing despite bad performances from Robinson.

vs Houston 95 (with Hakeem) has been a topic of conversation for a minute now so I won't list the numbers totally (23.8 ppg for DR). I'd just like to mention again that he shot under 40% 3 games in this series and had under a 90 ORTG in all 3 games.

vs Utah 96 (8th ranked defense): 19.3 ppg, 3.7 orpg, 2.0 apg, 2.3 topg, 52.6 TS%, 107 ORTG. Looks better than the rest on paper but he had under a 50 TS% in 4 games and the other 2 games were blowout losses (73 TS% in a game 1 20 point loss and 74 TS% in only 24 minutes of a game 4 15 point loss). Honestly outside of games 1 and 2 he was flat out bad.

I don't think a player like him can really be relied on in the postseason offensively. Now defensively there's another issue: in series where he disappointed offensively (is the 5 above) more often than not his team also underperformed defensively. In 93 they held Portland better than expected (-2.5) but Clyde missed game 1 (Portland's worst offensive performance of the series with a 95.0 ORTG). Take out that game and San Antonio performed worse than expected defensively. San Antonio also performed well against Denver (-4.2) but they were led by rookie Jalen Rose offensively by the time the playoffs came.

In 95 Houston performed better than expected (+3.0) mainly because of Hakeem's play and Utah killed them in 94 and 96 with the PNR (+4.0 in 94 and +5.7 in 96). TBH I'm not sure if I trust his defense to stand when he's taken out of the game offensively. I want to say its a small sample but 23 games is a pretty large postseason sample for Robinson to look so unspectacular in during his "peak" years.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#48 » by ardee » Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:17 am

ardee wrote:Already explained my Kobe vote ad nauseum.

1. '08 Kobe

ardee wrote:Lakers have a 7.4 SRS, 57 wins, no.1 seed.

The standard line-up with everyone healthy was Fisher/Kobe/Radmanovic/Odom/Pau. Pau was only healthy 27 games. Bynum was healthy for 35, and they never played together.

Player by player: Fisher had a good year. 12/23, 44% from the field and 41% from 3. He was still all right on defense. I want you to note his jump in efficiency going from the Jazz to playing with Kobe. This is something that has been seen when many players play with and then without Kobe. He draws so much attention that they see their percentages rank.

Radmanovic was also basically a shooter. He shot 41% from 3, and 44% for the first half of the '09 season. This dipped to 36% when he was traded in the second half, and further to 28 the next season. So elite shooter with Kobe, average to bad without.

Odom was phenomenal that year, no doubts about it, great player all around. The main reason was because we first had Bynum and then Pau to be the second option to Kobe, while Odom was more comfortable as no. 3. His TS% jumped 3.5% from 55 '05-'07, when he was no. 2, to 58.5 in '08, when he was no. 3. In the stretch between Bynum's injury and the Gasol trade when he had to be the no. 2 option again, he shot 42% TS.

Pau was the perfect no. 2 option for Kobe, of course he was, we won 2 titles with him. Remember 2 things though:

1. He played 27 games.
2. As the no. 1 in Memphis, his team was 13-32 before he got traded. They ended up 22-60, so they went from a .280 win pace with him to a .244 win pace without him.

Bynum was also good, however, he wasn't as good as Pau, the numbers spell it out. He played 35 games, and would likely get injured quicker if he

Kobe took this cast to a 7.4 SRS and 57 wins.

I want you to imagine this team with no Kobe.

You'd be starting Fisher/Vujacic/Radmanovic/Odom/27 games of Pau + 35 games of Bynum + 16 games of Turiaf.

The best team would be the one with Pau. Consider, however, like I said, how Pau did on a Memphis team that was poorly built but still had some talent. Their lead scorer was Rudy Gay, who is a flawed player but can at least provide some kind of offense when needed. They had a lights out shooter at the 2 in Mike Miller.

This hypothetical Lakers team built around Pau would have Odom as their second option. Scoring wise, he is worse than Gay for this role. I have already shown he struggles to be consistent in that role. He struggles like that with KOBE as his first option. Pau is a far inferior first option to Kobe and that would put a ton more pressure on Odom. Fisher and Radmanovic can't create, neither can Sasha, and their efficiency dropped heavily when not playing with Kobe.

You can make the argument that this efficiency was due to the triangle partially, and not all Kobe, but the triangle only WORKS when you have an elite perimeter creator like Kobe. So therefore, you can rest assured their efficiency would drop a good bit, if not all the way down to what it was when they didn't play for the Lakers.

So, Pau, inconsistent in the 2nd option role Odom now with the added pressure of playing with a worse no. 1 option than Kobe, and Sasha, Fisher and Radmanovic offering little. I honestly don't see more than .500 in those 27 games and that's being VERY optimstic. In fact, it's more likely to be like 10-11 wins out of 27. The Blazers were a .500 team and they had 2 legit scoring options in Roy and Aldridge surrounded by fitting role players. The Lakers without Kobe are worse then that, even with Pau. Let's call it a push at 12-13 wins in those 27 games.

Bynum's 35 games. Bynum was worse than Pau at everything. He doesn't offer Pau's high-post playmaking. He can still be the main scorer but now Odom has to be the primary creator. More pressure on him. Bynum might get injured from the extra strain. I don't see more than 12-14 wins out of 35. Again, optimstically.

16 games of Turiaf. Odom in the no. 1 role. The team completely falls apart. Maybe 1-2 wins in 16 games.

So essentially, that team in a full season without Kobe wins 25-29 games. They won 57. Kobe was providing roughly ~30 wins of lift.

With this knowledge, it is hard for me to rank Kobe lower than 12 on the all-time peaks. I have Walton at 11, and this is equivalent to the kind of lift we know him to provide.

This was not a good supporting cast. If he had a full season of Pau it would be different, I think the '09 Lakers were great, but 27 games means he was working with a lot less for the rest of the season. It was a good-fitting supporting cast but aside from Pau all the players were supremely dependant on Kobe to do well in their roles.

He took an otherwise lottery team to elite status and put up a historical ORtg for the team when he had Pau.



Through the first 3 rounds of the Playoffs, the Lakers played 3 50 win teams and Kobe averaged 32-6-6 on 60% TS. That is peak Jordan level production against elite opposition. People forget the Jazz were a 7 SRS team and Kobe averaged 33-7-7 against them. People forget he dropped 30 ppg on 53% from the field against the defending champ Spurs while no other star in the series got anything going on that end.

On the weight of the RS and his stunning Playoff performances, Kobe absolutely should not be ranked any lower.

2. '06 Kobe

Very similar lift to 2008 Kobe. Led a putrid cast to 48 Pythogorean wins, the 7th best SRS and the 8th best ORtg in the league. For reference, the 2006 Lakers performed as well as the 2019 Nuggets relative to the league and the 2019 Sixers offensively. Look at those rosters and then look at the roster Kobe was surrounded with.

3. '09 Kobe: This is tough, was gonna go '09 Wade here but I thought about the '09 season and basically who I trusted more to get it done when necessary: Kobe in '09 was an all time leadership/intangibles year. The Lakers were ultra-focused for every big game (snapped the Celtics' 19 and 12 game win streaks and the Cavs' 23 game home win streak), blew out every opponent in key Playoff games, and that is all on Kobe. He was also basically just as good as he was in the Playoffs as in the '08 Playoffs, 27 PER is no joke.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#49 » by No-more-rings » Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:56 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:It is becoming increasingly apparent that unless the West supporters have a strong showing in the final day, Robinson will win.

Robinson supporters have essentially conceded his offensive failures in the postseason, but the back-up has been his reputedly superb defence. FrogBros made a nice case against that in a separate thread, which I will post here for discussion:

As for Robinson being the best defensive center....if you are talking about just in the playoffs over that 2 year stretch [1994-95], it's pretty clear from the numbers that Ewing played [Hakeem] the toughest, much tougher than Robinson did by any standard. Ewing set 2 Finals records for blocks (most blocks in a Finals game) and (most blocks in a 7 game series). Ewing had more blocks by halftime of game 2 of the Finals than Robinson had in all 6 games against the Rockets in 95.

If you are speaking generally that Robinson was the best defensive center behind Olajuwon of that era, that's debatable as Ewing, Mutombo and Mourning all have cases. With Robinson, it seems like a less credible claim if we are factoring his pre Duncan post seasons into the equation. I know a lot of people here have Robinson as a secret, dark horse GOAT candidate, but when we look at the playoffs as opposed to just the regular season, the evidence starts to shrink. Between Robinson's rookie year and Duncan's rookie year, the Spurs lost to a lower seed in the playoffs every year except for 93 when they lost to the #1 seed Suns (where PHX won the series on the road on an isolation play where Charles Barkley happily scored the game winning bucket on Robinson without much resistance). In all of these years, the opposing team's centers and power forwards more often than not played as well or better against the Spurs in the playoffs than they did compared to their regular season averages. We aren't just talking about Olajuwon, Barkley and Karl Malone here either....we're talking about guys like Oliver Miller, Buck Williams, Felton Spencer, Elden Campbell etc.


And given that the 1995 Rockets series has already shown how the Spurs as a team could have defensive success despite Robinson getting roasted, this should call into question the assumption most of you are making. Robinson is a great regular season player, but in the postseason, where it matters most, he needs to be a secondary player to be truly effective on offence AND defence. He does not really win series on his own (one conference finals appearance, five series wins total). He loses against teams which performed worse in the regular season. He clearly underperforms in the playoffs relative to other top defensive options (Ewing, peak Mourning, Draymond as a secondary option...). People can set their own standards for “peak”, and by regular season peak he is probably a top ten to fifteen guy, but in the playoffs he is maybe a borderline top thirty guy (on his own). Fine, we average that out a bit, but even then that should not put him at #17.

Those are definitely some good points, and it does make me consider flipping Drob and Ewing, but at the same time I don’t know how good an example the 94 finals is for a few reasons:

- Ewing only averaged 19 ppg on a horrible 39 ts%, if he wasn’t so crappy on offense they win that series

- Hakeem was better offensively in 95 than 94

- Ewing’s peak in 1990 he wasn’t playing that kind of defense
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#50 » by liamliam1234 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:05 pm

I was just comparing defence. Because if Robinson loses a large chunk of his offence in the playoffs, then he needs to be able to keep it up on defence. And compared to similar players, he really does not..

Look, in like five more players everyone is going to have a major flaw. We are going to have a bunch of high-profile playoff under-performers, and a few guys with good playoffs who never really achieved anything. In that context, David Robinson fits fine. But not compared to West and Kobe and Dirk and Moses. For all the criticism I directed at him, at least Curry has undeniably good playoff runs; peak/prime David Robinson does not even have that.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#51 » by No-more-rings » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:09 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:. For all the criticism I directed at him, at least Curry has undeniably good playoff runs; peak/prime David Robinson does not even have that.

90, and 96 his scoring efficiency held up well, if that’s what you count as a “good” playoff run.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#52 » by liamliam1234 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:33 pm

Eballa already detailed the problems with that 1996 Jazz series, and though I disagree with his specific framing of 1990, he is not wrong in the sense that Robinson was not necessarily carrying the sole scoring load that year (i.e. further support that he is better suited to be the world’s most valuable second banana). And the implication of voting for 1990 or 1991 Robinson would be that he started declining as a player almost immediately. :lol:
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#53 » by E-Balla » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:49 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
liamliam1234 wrote:It is becoming increasingly apparent that unless the West supporters have a strong showing in the final day, Robinson will win.

Robinson supporters have essentially conceded his offensive failures in the postseason, but the back-up has been his reputedly superb defence. FrogBros made a nice case against that in a separate thread, which I will post here for discussion:

As for Robinson being the best defensive center....if you are talking about just in the playoffs over that 2 year stretch [1994-95], it's pretty clear from the numbers that Ewing played [Hakeem] the toughest, much tougher than Robinson did by any standard. Ewing set 2 Finals records for blocks (most blocks in a Finals game) and (most blocks in a 7 game series). Ewing had more blocks by halftime of game 2 of the Finals than Robinson had in all 6 games against the Rockets in 95.

If you are speaking generally that Robinson was the best defensive center behind Olajuwon of that era, that's debatable as Ewing, Mutombo and Mourning all have cases. With Robinson, it seems like a less credible claim if we are factoring his pre Duncan post seasons into the equation. I know a lot of people here have Robinson as a secret, dark horse GOAT candidate, but when we look at the playoffs as opposed to just the regular season, the evidence starts to shrink. Between Robinson's rookie year and Duncan's rookie year, the Spurs lost to a lower seed in the playoffs every year except for 93 when they lost to the #1 seed Suns (where PHX won the series on the road on an isolation play where Charles Barkley happily scored the game winning bucket on Robinson without much resistance). In all of these years, the opposing team's centers and power forwards more often than not played as well or better against the Spurs in the playoffs than they did compared to their regular season averages. We aren't just talking about Olajuwon, Barkley and Karl Malone here either....we're talking about guys like Oliver Miller, Buck Williams, Felton Spencer, Elden Campbell etc.


And given that the 1995 Rockets series has already shown how the Spurs as a team could have defensive success despite Robinson getting roasted, this should call into question the assumption most of you are making. Robinson is a great regular season player, but in the postseason, where it matters most, he needs to be a secondary player to be truly effective on offence AND defence. He does not really win series on his own (one conference finals appearance, five series wins total). He loses against teams which performed worse in the regular season. He clearly underperforms in the playoffs relative to other top defensive options (Ewing, peak Mourning, Draymond as a secondary option...). People can set their own standards for “peak”, and by regular season peak he is probably a top ten to fifteen guy, but in the playoffs he is maybe a borderline top thirty guy (on his own). Fine, we average that out a bit, but even then that should not put him at #17.

Those are definitely some good points, and it does make me consider flipping Drob and Ewing, but at the same time I don’t know how good an example the 94 finals is for a few reasons:

- Ewing only averaged 19 ppg on a horrible 39 ts%, if he wasn’t so crappy on offense they win that series

- Hakeem was better offensively in 95 than 94

- Ewing’s peak in 1990 he wasn’t playing that kind of defense

I want to single this out because it's common to see people say this about Ewing and it's bizarre to me that so many people agree a year where he was still in his athletic peak and matched his career high in blocks, a year only 2 years removed from when the got with Pat to create the best defensive squads of the modern era, is seen as a year where his defense was lacking. Now if you're only saying his defense wasn't up to the level it was in 94, then I'd agree, but add in that defensive coaches matter a lot at the switch to Pat mattered more than any actual improvement in his game. The same way Robinson's defensive play was better under Pop and Larry Brown. I think this is something consistently seen in great defenders too, KG's best defensive year is 08 for a reason.

But here's my post on Ewing's defense in 90:

His defensive impact was very impressive (actually if he would've stayed healthy his rookie season would easily make my top 10) if his very early career is any indication of his play in 1988-1991. As a rookie he was an All-Star and one of the best defensive players in the NBA if not the best when healthy (and certainty better than Anthony Davis). In 86 the Knicks were 18-32 in the 50 games Patrick Ewing played with the number 3 defense in the league and without him they were 5-27. The team had a 0.5 SRS when he played (he didn't miss any of their games against the Celtics, Sixers, Lakers, and most of the other top teams in the NBA he missed the softest stretch of their schedule and the Knicks had the toughest SOS in the league) and a -7.6 SRS when he didn't when controlling for Pat Cummings. 7 points of that SRS drop came on the defensive side of the ball. In 87 the Knicks were 20-43 with him and 4-15 without him. That's a combined 38-75 with him (34%, 28-54) and 9-42 without him (18%, 14-68). And remember in 87 Patrick played out of position at PF because Bill Cartwright came back from his injury and played 58 games (the team was a 24 win team both with and without him).

After those first two seasons Ewing remained healthy through his whole prime but unless we are to believe he fell off defensively from his rookie, 2nd, and 3rd (where he anchored the 7th best defense practically by himself) seasons only to regain his form later under Pat Riley (which is possible but highly unlikely) I think we can say with confidence that even in 1990 he was a way better defender than Anthony Davis.


This was from a comparison to AD in 2015 but even beyond that I think it's a solid argument that Ewing even in 1990 was a strong defender. If this changes your mind or not, IDK, but I think Moses should be over both if anything.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#54 » by E-Balla » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:54 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:I was just comparing defence. Because if Robinson loses a large chunk of his offence in the playoffs, then he needs to be able to keep it up on defence. And compared to similar players, he really does not..

Look, in like five more players everyone is going to have a major flaw. We are going to have a bunch of high-profile playoff under-performers, and a few guys with good playoffs who never really achieved anything. In that context, David Robinson fits fine. But not compared to West and Kobe and Dirk and Moses. For all the criticism I directed at him, at least Curry has undeniably good playoff runs; peak/prime David Robinson does not even have that.

I think this is my biggest issue with Robinson whenever projects like this come up. He was never even good before. Like I'd trust Carmelo Anthony (the man with the worst record in playoff history over 20 games IIRC) over Robinson if I needed someone to lead me to a series win vs a tough opponent/defense because he's actually played well against a good defense in the playoffs before. Robinson has no All-Star level performances to point to in the postseason as a first option. That's not at all normal for a guy being discussed this highly which is why I rate him as king second option along with guys like Draymond and Manu.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#55 » by E-Balla » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:56 pm

I also found that old post on 82 Moses I discussed earlier:

ShaqAttack3234 wrote:I looked into this season a while ago, and have been meaning to make a thread about it, but forgot until the last few days, so now is as good of a time as any.

He didn't win the title this year like he did in '83, but this has a strong case for being his best season. The individual feats are just astonishing.

I'll start with the final 2 games in January. Entering these games, the Rockets were a mediocre 19-22, but they won both games with Moses scoring 33 in the first game and in the second game, he had 32 points, 20 rebounds, 2 assists and 4 blocks on 12/18 from the floor and 7/10 from the line in 41 minutes. This would start an 8 game winning streak, a stretch where Houston went 13-2, a streak of 13 consecutive 30+ point games, a stretch of 30+ in 19 out of 20 games, and lead into a month of February which would make these 2 late January wins look quiet.

Moses opened up the month of February with 53 points(19 in the 4th quarter), 23 rebounds(11 of them were offensive boards), 4 assists and 1 block on 19/30 from the floor and 15/18 from the line.

That was just the first of 3 consecutive 40 point games. He followed it up with 45 points and 20 rebounds and then had 47 points, 14 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks on 18/28 from the floor and 11/15 from the line.

Here's what Del Harris had to say following these 3 games.

"If there's anybody playing any better in the NBA right now ... well, there just isn't," said Houston Coach Del Harris. "And the thing of it is, he's getting his points off the flow. He's getting them within the framework of our offense, plus the fact he's averaging about 10 points a game off his own hard work on the offensive boards."


Then Moses had a nice 33 point game before he continued with the legendary performances. His next game was a 38 point, 32 rebound game vs the Sonics, he broke his own record with 21 offensive rebounds, a record that still stands 30 years later, and this was the last 30/30 game until Kevin Love did it in the 2010-2011 season.

Moses outrebounded the entire Sonics team by himself, and Lenny Wilkens had this to say.

"Moses was really controlling the boards," said Seattle Coach Lenny Wilkens. "Bob Pettit and Bill Russell were two of the best (rebounders) that I ever saw. Moses compares very favorably."


Moses finally offered his 2 cents as well.

Originally Posted by Moses Malone
"I had stretches like this in high school, but never in pro ball," Malone said, "My body feels so good right now. I stay in shape. I'm losing pounds. The main thing is I'm getting rest."


After a few more 30+ games, one of them in Houston's first loss in more than 3 weeks, Moses had 44 points and 16 rebounds vs the Cavs. Followed by a few more "ordinary" 30+ games, Moses had 34/21 vs Dallas, then he was finally held under 30 with 23 points and 9 rebounds on 8/17 shooting show that he was normal, but the Rockets still beat Denver ever.

However, he'd end February with 43 points and 23 rebounds, and 44 points. Unfortunately, this game didn't end so well as Moses was held to just 2 points in the 4th, missed the potential game-winner in regulation and was held to just 2 points in overtime.

He'd add another 40+ game with 43 points on his first game in March, 14 of his points in the 4th quarter, although Houston would lose this game too.

Overall, Moses averaged 38.1 ppg and 17.3 rpg in the month of February. he had at least 30 points in 13 of the 14 games, scored 40+ 6 times that month and had at least 20 rebounds 6 times that month. He led Houston to an 11-3 record and to nobody's surprise was voted player of the month for February.

But this was not the end of Malone's dominance. After starting off March with the aforementioned 43 point game for a second streak of 3 40+ games in a row in about a month, he continued dropping 30+ including 38/12 with 3 blocks on 16/26 from the floor and 6/6 from the line while playing all 48 minutes, he then came through in the clutch the next game. He had 39 points and 18 rebounds including the offensive rebound and game-winner with 4 seconds remaining to beat the Suns by 2.

He was then held under 30 for just the second time in 21 games with 28 and he shot just 10/28, and followed it up with a 26 point game, which may have made people think he was cooling off. Not the case. He responded with 49 points and 12 rebounds while scoring 22 in the 4th quarter to beat the Blazers, then he was relatively quiet with games of 24 and 19 points, respectively, but responded with 39 points and 17 rebounds vs Kareem's Lakers, though Kareem sat out the second half with a sprained ankle.



Moses transitioned into his next outstanding performance with 31 points in between. He duplicated his outstanding performance from about a week and a half earlier vs Portland when he had 41 points and 18 rebounds as well as a 12 point 4th quarter to beat Portland again. He followed this up with 46 points vs the Sonics to continue his dominance of both these Northwest teams. he had a 38/20 game vs the Mavs sandwiched between 29/17 and 35/15 games vs the Warriors, the latter being on April 1st. He had a relatively quiet 21/15 game in a win vs the Spurs to lead into another monster game vs Kareem and the Lakers. Moses had 37 points and 21 rebounds, although Kareem did get the last laugh with 12 of his 20 points in the 4th quarter to pull out the win.

This was really when Malone's historical dominance, which last over 2 months, finally came to an end, as he scored 30+ in just 1 of his last 6 games to end the regular season.

But comparable stretches to Malone's 2 months in April have been few and far between.

Moses finished the season with a career-high 31.1 ppg which was 2nd in the league and a league-leading 14.7 rpg as he was voted MVP.


I think I might give my 3rd vote to 82 Moses now that I think about it more.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#56 » by DatAsh » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:01 pm

Last night I finished rewatching the 95 WCF(David vs Hakeem). My thoughts after rewatching it for the third? time:

- Hakeem's defense was insane. This was the thing I noticed more than anything. I've been really down on 94/95 Hakeems defense, and the impact data we have backs this up, but after rewatching this series I'm more inclined to think this is another situation where a superstar slacks off a lot in the regular season and then turns it on in the postseason. I've seen it with players like 93 Jordan, 2013-2017(especially 2016) Lebron, 2017-2019 Draymond and more; they're good(top 20ish) defenders in the regular season, but they suddenly turn back into DPOY caliber defenders in the post season. Regular season for me affects my rankings very little(maybe 10%), as it only affects championship odds insofar as it affects seeding. I love when E-Balla said "I'd take just enough games of Hakeem to get me to the 8th seed over all 82 games of David Robinson if it meant I'd have Hakeem on my 8th seed squad come playoff time vs Robinson in the first round." as that's exactly how I feel about regular season vs post season. Defensive impact metrics are mostly based on regular season effort. I'm starting to wonder if there's a 2-4 year window after a player's defensive impact metrics drop off, where that player is still just as good defensively(in terms of championship odds), and the difference is due entirely to regular season motor. Anyways, that's a huge tangent, and not all that relevant.

- Robinson's defense was really good. I know Hakeem torched Robinson here, but after rewatching the series, and replaying Hakeem's points over Robinson multiple times, I really don't see what Robinson could have done that would have been that much better. Hakeem's offense was just really good, and he was hitting really well contested shots.

- Robinson's offense wasn't very good. A lot of that was Hakeem's defense, but I do think the criticisms of his offense come playoff time are valid.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#57 » by E-Balla » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:26 pm

DatAsh wrote:Last night I finished rewatching the 95 WCF(David vs Hakeem). My thoughts after rewatching it for the third? time:

- Hakeem's defense was insane. This was the thing I noticed more than anything. I've been really down on 94/95 Hakeems defense, and the impact data we have backs this up, but after rewatching this series I'm more inclined to think this is another situation where a superstar slacks off a lot in the regular season and then turns it on in the postseason. I've seen it with players like 93 Jordan, 2013-2017(especially 2016) Lebron, 2017-2019 Draymond and more; they're good(top 20ish) defenders in the regular season, but they suddenly turn back into DPOY caliber defenders in the post season. Regular season for me affects my rankings very little(maybe 10%), as it only affects championship odds insofar as it affects seeding. I love when E-Balla said "I'd take just enough games of Hakeem to get me to the 8th seed over all 82 games of David Robinson if it meant I'd have Hakeem on my 8th seed squad come playoff time vs Robinson in the first round." as that's exactly how I feel about regular season vs post season. Defensive impact metrics are mostly based on regular season effort. I'm starting to wonder if there's a 2-4 year window after a player's defensive impact metrics drop off, where that player is still just as good defensively(in terms of championship odds), and the difference is due entirely to regular season motor. Anyways, that's a huge tangent, and not all that relevant.

- Robinson's defense was really good. I know Hakeem torched Robinson here, but after rewatching the series, and replaying Hakeem's points over Robinson multiple times, I really don't see what Robinson could have done that would have been that much better. Hakeem's offense was just really good, and he was hitting really well contested shots.

- Robinson's offense wasn't very good. A lot of that was Hakeem's defense, but I do think the criticisms of his offense come playoff time are valid.

Kept him from getting to his spots. There's another thread on this where I made these posts on this exact topic but it applies here too:

Post defense is done before the catch. Someone shouldn't be getting the ball in the position to take one dribble and score against you 17 times in a game. Remember Rodman didn't defend Shaq well by contesting shots, but by making sure he didn't get deep position on him consistently. How many faceups did he force here?


Dr Spaceman wrote:The strength difference is pretty obvious. Robinson is good at getting his freak arms in there when the shot actually goes up but he is not impeding Hakeem’s progress at all which means these are as good as shots against a practice defender. Robinson is kind of wiry strong in a way that works better in the modern game but Hakeem is thicker and heavier and just goes through his moves with no resistance. It’s not terrible defense like some are saying but it’s not good.

I think it's terrible in how often he was getting beat with little to no resistance. Like you said Hakeem might as well have been practicing and not once did Hakeem have to go through Robinson to score, which is a criticism I've always had on his defense. Robinson never seemed intimidating like a Hakeem, Ewing, Zo, or Mutombo. He was great but didn't have that mean streak and watching that series you can see that because he's not putting up much of a fight while Hakeem is getting to his spots with ease the whole night.

Now if you watch the 94 Finals you see something completely different in how Hakeem is guarded which is why that's his worst series of the 94 and 95 runs.



A little after 2 minutes in Ewing literally pushes Hakeem over rather than letting him get the ball in his spot and the play after that Hakeem has to literally grab Ewing and take his leg off the floor to get good positioning after Ewing elbows him in the chest for rim running in transition. Robinson didn't do any of this commonly in 95 outside of face guarding him to get steals. You gotta play tough inside.


Around here there's a common thought that basketball isn't a contact sport. It is, especially down low. If you can't stop your man from getting to their spot, especially someone elite, you lost. This isn't the regular court where you're playing people that'll get effected a ton by getting a hand up. It's the NBA you gotta throw them off their rhythm by any means. All the best man defenders ever are complete pests.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#58 » by LA Bird » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:34 pm

E-Balla wrote:.

Many of 83 Moses's all time arguments (two way player with a great +/- on a historically elite team) don't apply for his 82 season. It was a huge offensive box score season for sure but it was on a fairly average ~0 SRS team with subpar defense. What is it that elevates 82 Moses over several other players who put up monstrous offensive stats on better teams?

Also, since you are one of the main critics of Robinson's inability to lead as #1 option in the playoffs, what are your thoughts on peak DRob vs KG? Is Garnett also in the same group as Mourning/Ewing for you? Do you think the passing difference is big enough to have Robinson 6 (and counting) spots lower or do you disagree with Garnett being ranked as highly as he is on the current peak list in the first place?
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#59 » by E-Balla » Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:05 pm

LA Bird wrote:
E-Balla wrote:.

Many of 83 Moses's all time arguments (two way player with a great +/- on a historically elite team) don't apply for his 82 season. It was a huge offensive box score season for sure but it was on a fairly average ~0 SRS team with subpar defense. What is it that elevates 82 Moses over several other players who put up monstrous offensive stats on better teams?

He's a better basketball player than them. How many of these other carrying seasons where players had ungodly production are pancaked between a historic Finals run with a 40 win team and a year where they led one of the best teams ever? More than any other person left that carried a team of scrubs like Moses (outside of Rick Barry) he's proven. I don't really have to theorize if Moses could take a bad team to the Finals or win it all with a great team, he's done it. Basically he's just more proven than everyone else that's similar.

Also, since you are one of the main critics of Robinson's inability to lead as #1 option in the playoffs, what are your thoughts on peak DRob vs KG? Is Garnett also in the same group as Mourning/Ewing for you? Do you think the passing difference is big enough to have Robinson 6 (and counting) spots lower or do you disagree with Garnett being ranked as highly as he is on the current peak list in the first place?

Screw the passing difference, the scoring difference is vast too. Garnett is just on a completely different level offensively in every way. Better rebounder, shooter, scorer, post player, passer, faceup player. All Robinson does better is be the roll man and finish at the rim.

Back to the post liamliam just made; the argument against Robinson is that against good defenses in the playoffs he's a BAD offensive player and he has no examples of being anything but bad in those situations. More than any player that I can think of that's ever been top 3 in MVP voting. He is the worst first option of all players that have made the list or are being discussed outside of Bill Russell, because like Bill he's not even a first option. If you told me I had to pick between him and almost any other center worth mentioning in a series head to head with similar rosters of which they're the primary option, I'm taking every single one of them over him without hesitating.

KG just doesn't make sense as a point of comparison. The same KG that was literally a first option for an NBA champion? Honestly I'm not sure if I'm not doing Zo and Dwight a disservice by mentioning him with them (I'm probably doing Zo a disservice but not Dwight). Personally when I rank players championship level first options always come first (one exception is Bill Russell but you have to be next level to be regarded like he is). Only then do I start thinking about second options, of whom Robinson is the top 2nd option IMO.

Looked it up and here's KG vs -4 or better defenses in the playoffs from 99-08:

22.0 ppg, 3.7 apg, 2.6 tov on 55.0% TS

Here's Robinson against defenses between -2 and -4 (he never played any team better than -4) from 90-98:

21.0 ppg, 3.3 apg, 2.4 tov on 51.7% TS

Robinson's career playoff numbers aren't horrible only because more than any superstar ever he beat up on cupcake defenses while avoiding great ones.
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Re: Peaks project update: #17 

Post#60 » by LA Bird » Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:34 am

E-Balla wrote:He's a better basketball player than them. How many of these other carrying seasons where players had ungodly production are pancaked between a historic Finals run with a 40 win team and a year where they led one of the best teams ever? More than any other person left that carried a team of scrubs like Moses (outside of Rick Barry) he's proven. I don't really have to theorize if Moses could take a bad team to the Finals or win it all with a great team, he's done it. Basically he's just more proven than everyone else that's similar.

82 Moses's production wasn't any more godly than what we have seen from peak McAdoo, TMac, Harden, Durant, Kobe and many others. Moses's team did have playoff success in the surrounding years but 83 was a completely different animal and in 81, they only needed to beat a negative SRS team led by Reggie King in the conference finals. Without Murphy's 42 points in G7, the Rockets don't even make it past second round. I wouldn't say Moses had enough playoff success to say he is very proven at all.

Screw the passing difference, the scoring difference is vast too. Garnett is just on a completely different level offensively in every way. Better rebounder, shooter, scorer, post player, passer, faceup player. All Robinson does better is be the roll man and finish at the rim.

How is Garnett a vastly better scorer and faceup player than Robinson? And even though they are more #2 option skills, being an elite roll man and finisher is still valuable for a center.

KG just doesn't make sense as a point of comparison. The same KG that was literally a first option for an NBA champion? Honestly I'm not sure if I'm not doing Zo and Dwight a disservice by mentioning him with them (I'm probably doing Zo a disservice but not Dwight).

Boston won the title off their defense, not KG's offense as a first option. It is not like 19 points per 36 on 54% TS is something that peak Robinson couldn't replicate. And why is it a disservice to Mourning to mention Robinson with him when Zo has not won a title as a championship level first option either?

Looked it up and here's KG vs -4 or better defenses in the playoffs from 99-08:

22.0 ppg, 3.7 apg, 2.6 tov on 55.0% TS

Here's Robinson against defenses between -2 and -4 (he never played any team better than -4) from 90-98:

21.0 ppg, 3.3 apg, 2.4 tov on 51.7% TS

Robinson's career playoff numbers aren't horrible only because more than any superstar ever he beat up on cupcake defenses while avoiding great ones.

Depending on the criteria, we can also make Garnett look bad too...

Garnett Against Good Defenses (15.38% of playoffs games): 39.9 mpg, 12.1 rpg, 5.3 apg, 2.7 tov, 18.4 ppg on 41.0% FG, 78.1% FT and 45.8% TS (-7.56 rTS%)

Robinson Against Good Defenses (30.65% of playoffs games): 39.4 mpg, 12.8 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2.4 tov, 21.0 ppg on 45.9% FG, 64.8% FT and 51.7% TS (-1.54% rTS)

Source: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1836300

Neither of them are top tier #1 options offensively. If you are fine with Garnett at #11 why the pushback against Robinson?

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