RealGM

Michael Jordan wrote:I think the new contracts will have players retiring early, which is good for them.

Take a guy like Wemby for example, after his rookie deal he's probably making 60-80M/year in his mid-late twenties. By the time he's like 30 he'll have almost half a billion in career earnings.

Whose playing basketball into their mid-late 30s if they've already clinched that kind of money? Some definitely will but I feel like others will just say hey its been great.

Lebron seems happy enough to do it without retiring (frequently), Michael.

big-shot-ROB wrote:This CBA was intended to stop one team that was able to overspend on luxury tax but it will destroy small market teams who won't be able to overpay for their drafted players.

Just make the 125% count 100%. It is not that hard. Who cares if the Celtics or Warriors or Nuggets are able to string 2 or 3 rings when they literally drafted 5 of their 7 main rotation guys.

That’s completely dependent on whether or not these small market teams actually draft guys that are deserving of these huge max deals.

The reality is that there are a ton of players that simply aren’t deserving despite what teams are willing to pay right now. In the Nuggets example I don’t believe any team would be willing to pay Porter that kind of money based on what he’s proven thus far. Tobias Harris shouldn’t be making more money than Luka Doncic or Trae Young…. You get the point.

Teams will actually have to think about how they spend their money. That’s about it.

For example, I’m a Magic fan. I’m completely OK with Orlando spending two max contracts on Franz Wagner and Banchero. If they can fill out the rest of the roster with good talent they don’t need a third player to pay MPJ money.

There will be a few years where teams will have to get off of these contracts, but after that I think it will even out and some of these undeserving guys won’t be making ridiculous money as third or fourth options.

Simmons just big mad that the new CBA hurts his team.

hippesthippo wrote:Simmons just big mad that the new CBA hurts his team.

He realizes Brown ain’t worth the max and is pissed about it.

Michael Jordan wrote:I think the new contracts will have players retiring early, which is good for them.

Take a guy like Wemby for example, after his rookie deal he's probably making 60-80M/year in his mid-late twenties. By the time he's like 30 he'll have almost half a billion in career earnings.

Whose playing basketball into their mid-late 30s if they've already clinched that kind of money? Some definitely will but I feel like others will just say hey its been great.

Eh, doubtful. The same could have been said at any other era of basketball - let players still keep playing.

Back in 1991 the average NBA salary was under a million dollars. Back then you would have said 'if the average player is making over $5M a season, why would any of them play into their thirties? They'll already have so much by the time they're done their second contract!"

But now the average player is making closer to $10M than 5, and they're still playing for as long as they can. Nobody is saying no to that much money.

This definitely will screw over guys who had leverage like “you have to overpay me because you’re over the cap, and if you don’t I walk for nothing and you can’t replace me”. Tristan Thompson is the classic example. I’m inclined to agree will Bill here that this is a big win for cheap owners.

I'm a huge fan of any sport that supports parity in their league despite the size of the market.

With that said, I'm not a fan of rules that penalize an organization for scouting and drafting at an advanced level.

I was actually going to make the same thread today. I initially posted at the time that the new CBA would likely put downward pressure on the middle class contracts, so it’s reassuring to see others thought the same thing and I wasn’t crazy.

Basketball is more dependent on having a super duper star than other big 4 sports. Who was last NBA team to win without a top elite player? 04 Pistons? Before that, maybe the Pistons teams of the 80s?

So to win, you need to pay a super star, but then you need them to have a super friend of course, or at least a very very good friend that is usually paid like a super star, so suddenly you’re on the books for $100m per year for 2 guys, while trying to fit the rest of the roster under the remaining $79m to dodge the second apron.

If you took all the player salary’s and placed them in order, everyone from around 60th down to everyone that’s above minimum contract (around 380th) will have downward pressure on their value, at which point, if they are taking cuts to below their perceived value and don’t get rewarded for layoff to teams, perhaps they chose to team up with other players in favourable markets.

For reference, around 60th are guys like

Collins, Conley, Brogdan, Simons, Vuc, Rozier, FVV, Hield, Sabonis, Grant, Mikal Bridges, Jarrett Allen, Nic Batum, Aaron Gordon.

Also, as Bill points out, OKC are completely fkd by this - there’s no way they can pay all of SGA, Giddey, Williams and Chet coming in, not to mention their slew of draft picks coming up.

therealozzykhan wrote:

big-shot-ROB wrote:

therealozzykhan wrote:
Or he goes to a 3rd team with cap space that can pay him more than both. So that 3rd team gets better. It's not as simple as you're putting it. Lets say this summer hes a free agent, he would look great on OKC which has cap space.

Why would OKC overpay here given how limiting the second apron is here?

Because they are nowhere near it. SGA is on his rookie max deal, not a supermax deal, they have space to do it. Once SGA hits his second contract and supermax in 2027 than they would have to worry about that, but that is 4 years away.

Short term thinking. They have plenty of other players on the roster already that could potentially be in the market for $30m+ contracts

big-shot-ROB wrote:This CBA was intended to stop one team that was able to overspend on luxury tax but it will destroy small market teams who won't be able to overpay for their drafted players.

Just make the 125% count 100%. It is not that hard. Who cares if the Celtics or Warriors or Nuggets are able to string 2 or 3 rings when they literally drafted 5 of their 7 main rotation guys.

personally i'd prefer it
seeing a team like the Celtics, Warriors, Nuggets or any team thas basically drafted their core, developed it etc win a couple of consecutive rings is cool and fun. I appreciate continiuty alot as fan maybe even above all else

that's very different from watching the home grown Warriors add KD, or the Heatles etc.

who cares? I care! I like it, so they really should count the 125% as a 100% and enable teams to keep their drafted cores. good for the brand\franchise, good for the players and their families and good for fans and viewers imo, as well. as we enjoy seeing growth before our eyes, especially if\when that humble beginnings culminate with success\victory\glory

right? it's a great positive narrative

Slim Tubby wrote:I'm a huge fan of any sport that supports parity in their league despite the size of the market.

With that said, I'm not a fan of rules that penalize an organization for scouting and drafting at an advanced level.

this is why NBA should consider adding draft pick compensation like the NHL does for RFA offer sheets.

that way if a team doesn't want to max out a player they project will only become a top 30ish player, they can choose to just let that player walk in free agency in exchange for draft pick compensation.

so let's say a team has a prospect like an Ayton level prospect where you might hesitate to max that player out. they could choose to not match an offer sheet, now that team gets compensated with three unprotected picks or however many picks based on the offer sheet they signed. all this means is that a guy like Ayton wouldn't be making 30+ million because a team like Indiana probably wouldn't want to risk giving up the picks. it then becomes cheaper to retain drafted talent as you are either getting them at a closer to fair market value number or you're getting compensated with future picks.

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:It was hard to hear, honestly, Simmons was making up numbers and because of that coming to nonsense conclusions, like when he was hallucinating that Brown+Tatum would make 110m and the second apron is at 180...
Some simple FACTS:
- next year the cap is 134m
- the luxury tax is always 122% of the cap, the first apron is a 126%, the second apron is at 134%
- max contracts are still 25/30/35% of the cap depending on years in the league and supermax elegibility
- those contracts grow 8% while the cap is set for a few years at +10%, hence they're not going higher than that

all this thing about the middle class being screwed is totally invented, very few teams were going over such limit, the impact to the population will be minimal.
what changes is that now you must be very efficient with the way you spend your money. The Warriors are in trouble because Poole and Klay are now overpaid. Boston might be because the player they might offer a supermax to this summer it a top20 guy, not a top5. Phoenix is paying Paul 30m and like 36 to Ayton, who are not worth that.
There's plenty of budget to spend before the second apron, just you must know what to with it.

Also this OKC thing makes no sense, at some point they would have had to make decisions, you can't max out everybody. What OKC has is a lot 1st round picks that can provide them cheap labour to fill up the roster

I don't get how you typed all these facts out but don't take the time to see what Bill's point was. When he referenced Brown and Tatum he was talking about their next super max contracts. Both guys will be eligible for 5 year maxes with Brown @295m and Tatum @318m. That is an average of 59m and 63.6m = ~110-125m for just two guys.

134m x1.34 = $179.56m.... so he rounded up lol

Given his conservative estimate of 110m for both guys you have 70m leftover to fill out 10 roster spots... Just using the Celtics remaining 3 playoff starters at the current contracts in Al, Smart and White and you have already utilized 60.6m.

What people are overlooking is the fact that small market teams already have to overpay their stars to keep them in town. 9/10 times they aren't worth the deals the moment they signed them and are already working with a handicap in fielding a competitive roster.

phanman wrote:

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:It was hard to hear, honestly, Simmons was making up numbers and because of that coming to nonsense conclusions, like when he was hallucinating that Brown+Tatum would make 110m and the second apron is at 180...
Some simple FACTS:
- next year the cap is 134m
- the luxury tax is always 122% of the cap, the first apron is a 126%, the second apron is at 134%
- max contracts are still 25/30/35% of the cap depending on years in the league and supermax elegibility
- those contracts grow 8% while the cap is set for a few years at +10%, hence they're not going higher than that

all this thing about the middle class being screwed is totally invented, very few teams were going over such limit, the impact to the population will be minimal.
what changes is that now you must be very efficient with the way you spend your money. The Warriors are in trouble because Poole and Klay are now overpaid. Boston might be because the player they might offer a supermax to this summer it a top20 guy, not a top5. Phoenix is paying Paul 30m and like 36 to Ayton, who are not worth that.
There's plenty of budget to spend before the second apron, just you must know what to with it.

Also this OKC thing makes no sense, at some point they would have had to make decisions, you can't max out everybody. What OKC has is a lot 1st round picks that can provide them cheap labour to fill up the roster

I don't get how you typed all these facts out but don't take the time to see what Bill's point was. When he referenced Brown and Tatum he was talking about their next super max contracts. Both guys will be eligible for 5 year maxes with Brown @295m and Tatum @318m. That is an average of 59m and 63.6m = ~110-125m for just two guys.

134m x1.34 = $179.56m.... so he rounded up lol

Given his conservative estimate of 110m for both guys you have 70m leftover to fill out 10 roster spots... Just using the Celtics remaining 3 playoff starters at the current contracts in Al, Smart and White and you have already utilized 60.6m.

What people are overlooking is the fact that small market teams already have to overpay their stars to keep them in town. 9/10 times they aren't worth the deals the moment they signed them and are already working with a handicap in fielding a competitive roster.

Every team has decisions to make each and every off season. This new CBA forces these decisions on guys that teams would never have thought twice about, ie Brown, think about whether or not it's a good idea to max him if they can't build a roster good enough around Tatum/Brown.

I'm not saying I agree with this, but the new CBA seems to be saying, lets use Boston as a case, you can have Tatum/Brown at the max levels and it's going to squeeze some players out and make it harder "to build a championship" team. The flipside of that is, if Tatum/Brown are worth MAX money, you should be able to build a contender around them with lower salary guys.
Any, if every team is in the same boat, then what's the issue?

I mean the Kings dodged a bullet with Sabonis not being eligible for supermax, otherwise goodbye Barnes (might be anyway) and eventually Monk. It makes the Kings think, what are our goals and how far are Fox/Sabonis as the 2 max guys going to take us and is that okay with us.

Haven't analyzed all the details but Bill Simmons is the biggest pearl clutch overreactor in sports personality history (100%), so whatever he says, I'm sure it's less serious than it sounds.

makubesu wrote:This definitely will screw over guys who had leverage like “you have to overpay me because you’re over the cap, and if you don’t I walk for nothing and you can’t replace me”. Tristan Thompson is the classic example. I’m inclined to agree will Bill here that this is a big win for cheap owners.

Yes, this is designed to hurt superteams like the 2016 Cavs and 2017 Warriors, so we don’t have the same 2 teams playing each other in the Finals 4 years in a row.

It’s specifically designed to be a “FU” to the Warriors.

Attempts to enforce "equality" when equality doesn't exist tend to backfire. When will people learn?

Sofia wrote:

therealozzykhan wrote:

big-shot-ROB wrote:
Why would OKC overpay here given how limiting the second apron is here?

Because they are nowhere near it. SGA is on his rookie max deal, not a supermax deal, they have space to do it. Once SGA hits his second contract and supermax in 2027 than they would have to worry about that, but that is 4 years away.

Short term thinking. They have plenty of other players on the roster already that could potentially be in the market for $30m+ contracts

The second apron doesnt stop anyone from keeping their players. You just lose some options, like the MLE and buyout market players. So a team needs to figure that out, the tax penalties are still the same, if OKC feels they have lots of talent they could careless about the MLE and buyout candidates.

This is really going to hurt the role players because half of the league is over the cap so it really limits how much they can offer free agents.

A team that has a star player is pretty much bound to offer the max to retain their player or risk losing them for nothing in free agency now, now that sign and trades can't happen if the receiving team is over the cap limit this also incentivizes free agents signing with their own team for better or for worse.

Teams will have to play hardball now with their own free agents and we probably don't see role players like MPJ or Ayton get offered the max anymore just due to how detrimental being over the salary cap is now. I have a hard time seeing how the NBPA agreed to this as I can't see how this benefits the majority of the players as it really limits where they can sign and they will probably be accepting the MLE or vet min if they want to sign with a winning team.

WarriorGM wrote:Attempts to enforce "equality" when equality doesn't exist tend to backfire. When will people learn?

This is funny coming from someone with your handle.

phanman wrote:

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:It was hard to hear, honestly, Simmons was making up numbers and because of that coming to nonsense conclusions, like when he was hallucinating that Brown+Tatum would make 110m and the second apron is at 180...
Some simple FACTS:
- next year the cap is 134m
- the luxury tax is always 122% of the cap, the first apron is a 126%, the second apron is at 134%
- max contracts are still 25/30/35% of the cap depending on years in the league and supermax elegibility
- those contracts grow 8% while the cap is set for a few years at +10%, hence they're not going higher than that

all this thing about the middle class being screwed is totally invented, very few teams were going over such limit, the impact to the population will be minimal.
what changes is that now you must be very efficient with the way you spend your money. The Warriors are in trouble because Poole and Klay are now overpaid. Boston might be because the player they might offer a supermax to this summer it a top20 guy, not a top5. Phoenix is paying Paul 30m and like 36 to Ayton, who are not worth that.
There's plenty of budget to spend before the second apron, just you must know what to with it.

Also this OKC thing makes no sense, at some point they would have had to make decisions, you can't max out everybody. What OKC has is a lot 1st round picks that can provide them cheap labour to fill up the roster

I don't get how you typed all these facts out but don't take the time to see what Bill's point was. When he referenced Brown and Tatum he was talking about their next super max contracts. Both guys will be eligible for 5 year maxes with Brown @295m and Tatum @318m. That is an average of 59m and 63.6m = ~110-125m for just two guys.

134m x1.34 = $179.56m.... so he rounded up lol

Given his conservative estimate of 110m for both guys you have 70m leftover to fill out 10 roster spots... Just using the Celtics remaining 3 playoff starters at the current contracts in Al, Smart and White and you have already utilized 60.6m.

What people are overlooking is the fact that small market teams already have to overpay their stars to keep them in town. 9/10 times they aren't worth the deals the moment they signed them and are already working with a handicap in fielding a competitive roster.

1) Tatum and Brown will have a starting salary worth 35% of the cap, that 59 and 63 is the average per year assuming 8% yearly increases. What matters is what they make each year, and in the first years it will less than that
2) the second apron is set at 180m THIS year, for the salaries for THIS year, with the 35% max set accordingly. All these numbers are growing with the camp, hence, it will move (assuming 10% BRI growth) to 198m in 2024 for Brown's first year of the new contract and 217 in 2025m for the first year if Tatum's new contract... first years that are going to be less than the averages Simmons came up with

Anyway, you don't need to overpay your star. If Washington want's to throw a max to a top30 player like Beal that's their problem