Dylan Harper

[cheesehoff]

My best player comp is Cade Cunningham and I wouldn't spend a #1 on him.
Flagg has no weaknesses in his game, he plays in a much stricter scheme than Harper and is one of the best defensive prospects to come out in several years.
And he's only 17!! Winger wrote a song about him years and years ago.
I've never heard it was a one man draft, either. Actually, all I've heard is how deep the talent pool is with a few different potential #1's.
Harper may not be the draftee on his own team. Bailey has incredible talen and could easily push for the top spot. Edgecombe and Demin have also been mentioned as top 3-5 prospects, too.

[Hal14]

If Harper could shoot he'd be such a clear cut star. If his percentages and shot profile end up something like DeRozan, what do people think of him?

He can shoot. I think you're making the mistake of looking at raw 3 FG% without context and on a tiny sample size of games.

If we expand the sample size to a more meaningful number of games (include not only his freshman season so far but also several HS games we can find data for last season, mcdonalds all american game, nike hoop summit, jordan brand classic, scrimmage vs St john's etc. he's at about 34% from 3 which is a very respectable number for an 18 year old freshman. Plus it's on high volume (about 6 attempts per game) and he's shooting like 78% from the FT line this season..the volume and the FT% are both indicators that the 3 ball will keep getting better. And he has smooth shooting form too. And has shown some deep shooting range, like hitting 3's from way beyond the arc in the Jordan Brand classic, he has also shown ability to hit movement 3's in HS. Good range and shot versatility are also good indicators for future shooting improvement.

Keep in mind, the average 3 FG% for drafted players in recent years is like 31% (people sometimes just think that 31% number is low because the NBA league average is 36% but we shouldn't be comparing the 3 FG% for 18 year old freshmen to NBA players who are 26+ years old, some of them have been in the league for 10+ years, it's an apples to oranges comparison. So Harper being at 34% is actually a good number..especially for a high usage guard who has to take a such a large % of his 3's that are off the dribble and/or contested..a much tougher shot difficulty than guys like Karaban/Mcneely who have basically all open catch and shoot 3' attempts.

Ant Edwards, Maxey,. Jaylen Brown were all around 29-30% as freshmen. Wemby was at like 30%. Doncic was at like 31% during his pre-draft season. Tatum and Banchero were at 34%. Lamelo was only like 28% or something..Mitchell as a freshman was at like 26%..SGA as a freshman had a good 3 FG% but it was on crazy low volume so when the volume is that low, the 3 FG% is almost meaningless.

And as we've seen with other elite drivers (Jaylen brown, butler, Giannis, LeBron, Wade, D-fox, Morant, Banchero, etc.) the 3 FG% doesn't have to be elite if they are elite at creating advantages off the dribble, pressuring the rim at will, drawing fouls, getting paint touches, etc. which Harper is elite at if you watch the film from HS and so far at Rutgers.

[SeattleJazzFan]

If Harper could shoot he'd be such a clear cut star. If his percentages and shot profile end up something like DeRozan, what do people think of him?

He can shoot. I think you're making the mistake of looking at raw 3 FG% without context and on a tiny sample size of games.

If we expand the sample size to a more meaningful number of games (include not only his freshman season so far but also several HS games we can find data for last season, mcdonalds all american game, nike hoop summit, jordan brand classic, scrimmage vs St john's etc. he's at about 34% from 3 which is a very respectable number for an 18 year old freshman. Plus it's on high volume (about 6 attempts per game) and he's shooting like 78% from the FT line this season..the volume and the FT% are both indicators that the 3 ball will keep getting better. And he has smooth shooting form too. And has shown some deep shooting range, like hitting 3's from way beyond the arc in the Jordan Brand classic, he has also shown ability to hit movement 3's in HS. Good range and shot versatility are also good indicators for future shooting improvement.

Keep in mind, the average 3 FG% for drafted players in recent years is like 31%. So Harper being at 34% is actually a good number..especially for a high usage guard who has to take a such a large % of his 3's that are off the dribble and/or contested..a much tougher shot difficulty than guys like Karaban/Mcneely who have basically all open catch and shoot 3' attempts.

it's not just raw 3pt% - his shot just looks flat. he took a couple long twos (bricked them both - one from the baseline, and one from top of the key/ft line area) in that last game and even they looked flat. he's not a horrible shooter and his shot isn't broken, but he does need to figure that out - tweak it a bit or something or it will remain a legit concern for him at the next level.

i'm a dylan harper fan and think he's the best pure basketball player of all the OADs at this level. but at the next level, you need to be a reliable shooter from long range and i think that until he fixes his shot, he will continue to struggle. or perhaps it's just a matter of reps and he can make it work as it is. but for now, it is an issue and it's okay to be concerned about it.

i should also mention, shooting in HS, in particular, HS All-star games is a faaaar cry from d1 hoops or the NBA. such a far cry that it is essentially meaningless. isaiah collier was a good three point shooter in HS.

[babyjax13]

If Harper could shoot he'd be such a clear cut star. If his percentages and shot profile end up something like DeRozan, what do people think of him?

He can shoot. I think you're making the mistake of looking at raw 3 FG% without context and on a tiny sample size of games.

If we expand the sample size to a more meaningful number of games (include not only his freshman season so far but also several HS games we can find data for last season, mcdonalds all american game, nike hoop summit, jordan brand classic, scrimmage vs St john's etc. he's at about 34% from 3 which is a very respectable number for an 18 year old freshman. Plus it's on high volume (about 6 attempts per game) and he's shooting like 78% from the FT line this season..the volume and the FT% are both indicators that the 3 ball will keep getting better. And he has smooth shooting form too. And has shown some deep shooting range, like hitting 3's from way beyond the arc in the Jordan Brand classic, he has also shown ability to hit movement 3's in HS. Good range and shot versatility are also good indicators for future shooting improvement.

Keep in mind, the average 3 FG% for drafted players in recent years is like 31%. So Harper being at 34% is actually a good number..especially for a high usage guard who has to take a such a large % of his 3's that are off the dribble and/or contested..a much tougher shot difficulty than guys like Karaban/Mcneely who have basically all open catch and shoot 3' attempts.

I'm not seeing his high school shooting stats other than how many shots he made at each distance. Do you have a better source? I did accidentally divide his 3pt made by ft made and came up with 34 percent before realizing my mistake!

[Hal14]

If Harper could shoot he'd be such a clear cut star. If his percentages and shot profile end up something like DeRozan, what do people think of him?

He can shoot. I think you're making the mistake of looking at raw 3 FG% without context and on a tiny sample size of games.

If we expand the sample size to a more meaningful number of games (include not only his freshman season so far but also several HS games we can find data for last season, mcdonalds all american game, nike hoop summit, jordan brand classic, scrimmage vs St john's etc. he's at about 34% from 3 which is a very respectable number for an 18 year old freshman. Plus it's on high volume (about 6 attempts per game) and he's shooting like 78% from the FT line this season..the volume and the FT% are both indicators that the 3 ball will keep getting better. And he has smooth shooting form too. And has shown some deep shooting range, like hitting 3's from way beyond the arc in the Jordan Brand classic, he has also shown ability to hit movement 3's in HS. Good range and shot versatility are also good indicators for future shooting improvement.

Keep in mind, the average 3 FG% for drafted players in recent years is like 31%. So Harper being at 34% is actually a good number..especially for a high usage guard who has to take a such a large % of his 3's that are off the dribble and/or contested..a much tougher shot difficulty than guys like Karaban/Mcneely who have basically all open catch and shoot 3' attempts.

I'm not seeing his high school shooting stats other than how many shots he made at each distance. Do you have a better source? I did accidentally divide his 3pt made by ft made and came up with 34 percent before realizing my mistake!

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[EvanZ]

I watched the TAMU game and it wasn't one of Dylan's best obviously. In that game Ace definitely looked like the more intriguing prospect just from a physical and "damn ok you got that in your game?" perspective. But I can certainly see how long term Dylan is the better NBA player.

The play where Ace threw it into the backcourt to Dylan was a head scratcher.

[Hal14]

it's not just raw 3pt% - his shot just looks flat. he took a couple long twos (bricked them both - one from the baseline, and one from top of the key/ft line area) in that last game and even they looked flat.

So you're basing this on a 1 game sample size..and only 2 shots he took during that 1 game?

Maybe he was tied, since it was Rutgers 3rd game in 5th days (4th game in 7 days) with pretty much all of them on the road?

Even if his shot could use some small tweaks (and you yourself say it isn't broken) so what are you even going on about? I never said he was an elite shooter. I was simply pushing back on the guy who said that point blank "if Harper could shoot..." which implies he cannot shoot at all.

I'd also add that FT% is a good indicator for shooting projection, as I think we all know. Harper so far is at 79.3% from the FT line..

at the next level, you need to be a reliable shooter from long range

You do? What is this based on? None of these guys are reliable shooters from long range: Scottie Barnes, Paolo Banchero, LeBron, Giannis, Ja Morant, D-Fox, Derozan, Gobert, Jimmy Butler, Clingan, JOsh Hart, Robert Williams, Poeltl, Zion, Dejounte Murray, etc.. Even guys like Tatum, Brown, Trae, Luka, Franz and Ant Edwards have issues with the consistency of their 3 ball.. I suppose those guys all suck?

Edwards, Maxey, Lamelo, D-fox, Donovan Mitchell, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kawhi, Middleton, Jokic, Caruso, etc. these guys were all poor 3 pt shooters as freshmen (or in some cases during their age 18 season overseas) yet all these guys improved a lot once they got in the NBA (shooting is probably the easiest skill to improve once you're in the league)

Towns and SGA barely shot any 3's in college.

Point is, a) you can be a good NBA player without being a reliable shooter. And b) it's very common for guys to improve their shooting quite a bit once they get to the league so it's best to not worry too much about an 18 yr old freshman missing shots

i think that until he fixes his shot, he will continue to struggle.

He's struggling now? Harper is arguably the best player in college basketball. At least on the offensive end of the floor. He's been able to bend the defense, pressure the rim and create shots at will. His unassisted made field goals per game is crazy high, his rim FG% is crazy high, as is his TS% and assist %.

He's a consensus top 3 pick. I certainly wouldn't say he's struggling.

i should also mention, shooting in HS, in particular, HS All-star games is a faaaar cry from d1 hoops or the NBA. such a far cry that it is essentially meaningless.

I disagree. We're super early in the NCAA season. This early in the season, with sample sizes so small, it's important to factor in as many other recent games as we can in order to have a larger, more statistically significant sample size of data. Rutgers has only played 8 games. That's a tiny sample size. We can't really tell much from that. But if we expand that sample size to 18 games, now we have more data to make a mora accurate evaluation. Especially since those other games we're adding to the sample are a) recent and b) mostly vs top tier college/HS competition

As for the 3 all-star games that were included in the sample i posted..while I get that the perception is all-star games = no defense, high scoring games with inflated numbers:
a) Harper was facing top level HS comp in those games..more talented comp than pretty much any HS game he played in
b) In some cases, guys actually do get after it on D in all-star games..especially in this year's hoop summit and mcdonalds all american game
c) since the rosters are loaded with talented stars, each player usually has lower usage, less FGA, they're less in rhythm, on a team with so many mouths to feed, and have to adjust their game to playing a different role than they played on their HS team which can cause efficiency numbers to be poor
d) that's only 3 out of 18 games so not effecting the data a ton
e) it's more recent than a few of the other games in the sample. Recent games give us a better idea of how good a player is than games that are less recent

isaiah collier was a good three point shooter in HS.

a) ok? Because you name one guy out of the millions who have played HS basketball, that automatically makes you right? Nah. I could easily name other guys who were good shooters in HS and good shooters in the NBA.
b) I don't have his HS shooting numbers off hand, but from the film I remember watching, his touch didn't seen so good in HS., Seemed to put too much force into his shot, rather than soft touch.
c) Still, who knows? Collier is only a few games into his rookie season. For all we know, he could end up being the greatest shooter in NBA history. It's typically best to wait at least 3 years after a guy has been in the NBA before drawing any meaningful conclusions about them..

[SeattleJazzFan]

it's not just raw 3pt% - his shot just looks flat. he took a couple long twos (bricked them both - one from the baseline, and one from top of the key/ft line area) in that last game and even they looked flat.

So you're basing this on a 1 game sample size..and only 2 shots he took during that 1 game?

Maybe he was tied, since it was Rutgers 3rd game in 5th days (4th game in 7 days) with pretty much all of them on the road?

i'm basing it on every game i've seen which is every game Rutgers has played and several HS games. those examples were just from the last game. his shot is flat. that's just a fact. regardless of how much you protest, it's a problem.

it's crystal clear you are a big dylan harper fan (i am too), but it's okay for you to acknowledge the warts in his game or any other prospect you may like.

[bucknut]

His best attribute is his big thick body

Rutgers is just using him as James harden attack paint and draw fouls.

Ace looks like the sexier prospect from a raw skills jumper and skills standpoint, but if Harper can be an elite contact paint finisher that's his path.

[JustBuzzin]

His best attribute is his big thick body

Rutgers is just using him as James harden attack paint and draw fouls.

Ace looks like the sexier prospect from a raw skills jumper and skills standpoint, but if Harper can be an elite contact paint finisher that's his path.

Ace has more potential, but his lack of ball handling is kind of concerning. He can get his shot in college, not sure he can get away without cleaning up his ball handling.

Right now Harper is the best player in college basketball. He gets the offense because his skill set requires him to be the offense. Rutgers is a pretty bad program it's literally a 2 man team over there.

It should be interesting to see how the big 3 Flagg/Harper/Bailey pan out at the end of the season. This could flip flop after every week.

[JMAC3]

Harper is just a GAM (grownassman) 6-6, 220 pg and I think that mixed with ball handling just makes him really tough to stop in college basketball. I am probably the most worried about him at the next level between Flagg, Bailey and him as of right now. That can change, but a lot of his game is just built on him being bigger, faster, stronger than the guys guarding him and some of that will be neutralized at the next level. Whereas Flagg and Bailey I think have a bit more skill to offensive game and less of a physical advantage.

Interested to see if teams change how they defend him as the year goes on because right now he just puts his head down and he lives at the rim for majority of offense. 50 buckets at the rim compared to just 17 buckets not at the rim. It is a good problem to have so again not saying I don't like him.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2025&p=Dylan%20Harper&t=Rutgers

[HadAnEffectHere]

Harper is just a GAM (grownassman) 6-6, 220 pg and I think that mixed with ball handling just makes him really tough to stop in college basketball. I am probably the most worried about him at the next level between Flagg, Bailey and him as of right now. That can change, but a lot of his game is just built on him being bigger, faster, stronger than the guys guarding him and some of that will be neutralized at the next level. Whereas Flagg and Bailey I think have a bit more skill to offensive game and less of a physical advantage.

Interested to see if teams change how they defend him as the year goes on because right now he just puts his head down and he lives at the rim for majority of offense. 50 buckets at the rim compared to just 17 buckets not at the rim. It is a good problem to have so again not saying I don't like him.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2025&p=Dylan%20Harper&t=Rutgers

I don't think "skill" even remotely when I think of Ace Bailey, lol.

He's like the worst passing non-center to likely to be picked in the top 5 in like... Two decades?

[JMAC3]

Harper is just a GAM (grownassman) 6-6, 220 pg and I think that mixed with ball handling just makes him really tough to stop in college basketball. I am probably the most worried about him at the next level between Flagg, Bailey and him as of right now. That can change, but a lot of his game is just built on him being bigger, faster, stronger than the guys guarding him and some of that will be neutralized at the next level. Whereas Flagg and Bailey I think have a bit more skill to offensive game and less of a physical advantage.

Interested to see if teams change how they defend him as the year goes on because right now he just puts his head down and he lives at the rim for majority of offense. 50 buckets at the rim compared to just 17 buckets not at the rim. It is a good problem to have so again not saying I don't like him.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2025&p=Dylan%20Harper&t=Rutgers

I don't think "skill" even remotely when I think of Ace Bailey, lol.

He's like the worst passing non-center to likely to be picked in the top 5 in like... Two decades?

Kevin Durant averaged 1.3 apg in college, forwards in college typically aren't good passers.
Another reason why Flagg is so advanced.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Harper is just a GAM (grownassman) 6-6, 220 pg and I think that mixed with ball handling just makes him really tough to stop in college basketball. I am probably the most worried about him at the next level between Flagg, Bailey and him as of right now. That can change, but a lot of his game is just built on him being bigger, faster, stronger than the guys guarding him and some of that will be neutralized at the next level. Whereas Flagg and Bailey I think have a bit more skill to offensive game and less of a physical advantage.

Interested to see if teams change how they defend him as the year goes on because right now he just puts his head down and he lives at the rim for majority of offense. 50 buckets at the rim compared to just 17 buckets not at the rim. It is a good problem to have so again not saying I don't like him.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2025&p=Dylan%20Harper&t=Rutgers

I don't think "skill" even remotely when I think of Ace Bailey, lol.

He's like the worst passing non-center to likely to be picked in the top 5 in like... Two decades?

Kevin Durant averaged 1.3 apg in college, forwards in college typically aren't good passers.
Another reason why Flagg is so advanced.

Durant AST%: 8.6
Ace: 4.2

[JMAC3]

I don't think "skill" even remotely when I think of Ace Bailey, lol.

He's like the worst passing non-center to likely to be picked in the top 5 in like... Two decades?

Kevin Durant averaged 1.3 apg in college, forwards in college typically aren't good passers.
Another reason why Flagg is so advanced.

Durant AST%: 8.6
Ace: 4.2

Right, so they were both terrible. Are you massively changing your view on Ace if he gets to 8% rate?
I just don't think it is a big part of my evaluation when looking at wings, majority of awesome wings were terrible playmakers in college.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Kevin Durant averaged 1.3 apg in college, forwards in college typically aren't good passers.
Another reason why Flagg is so advanced.

Durant AST%: 8.6
Ace: 4.2

Right, so they were both terrible. Are you massively changing your view on Ace if he gets to 8% rate?
I just don't think it is a big part of my evaluation when looking at wings, majority of awesome wings were terrible playmakers in college.

Durant also averaged 26 PPG on 58.7% TS% while Ace is averaging 19 PPG on 55.7% TS%.

Ace also cannot create any separation at all and isn't even close to Durant's bad ball handling.

Durant's release point is also much higher.

But yes, if Ace started passing much better, I would be less harsh about his passing.

[babyjax13]

I watched the TAMU game and it wasn't one of Dylan's best obviously. In that game Ace definitely looked like the more intriguing prospect just from a physical and "damn ok you got that in your game?" perspective. But I can certainly see how long term Dylan is the better NBA player.

The play where Ace threw it into the backcourt to Dylan was a head scratcher.

Alabama was a nice game where they were both excellent against great competition.

[JMAC3]

Durant AST%: 8.6
Ace: 4.2

Right, so they were both terrible. Are you massively changing your view on Ace if he gets to 8% rate?
I just don't think it is a big part of my evaluation when looking at wings, majority of awesome wings were terrible playmakers in college.

Durant also averaged 26 PPG on 58.7% TS% while Ace is averaging 19 PPG on 55.7% TS%.

Ace also cannot create any separation at all and isn't even close to Durant's bad ball handling.

Durant's release point is also much higher.

But yes, if Ace started passing much better, I would be less harsh about his passing.

You are missing the point, college passing stats for wings doesn't matter.
Tatum, Durant, Brandon Miller all those guys were terrible passers in college by the numbers and all are probably going to be 5+ assists per game playmakers for majority of prime.

We are also talking about a 6 game sample size, if Ace records 3 assists in his next game which is very unimpressive the 4% you are stressing over probably is close to 10%.

You know what matters more? If a guard can't shoot. Harper shooting 17/66 on non-layups (25%). Hence why I mentioned he is the one I am more worried about their game not transitioning to the NBA as well.

[Cammo101]

I'm not saying he is necessarily as good as either guy, but my comp for Harper is a combo of Harden and Luka. The way he uses his body, change of speed, and change of direction to get to the lane and to get open feels more like them than someone like Cade. Not seeing the Cade comp as much.

[CptCrunch]

I don't dislike Harper as much as I dislike Bailey given that he is playing (effectively) for a mid-major team without records of sending players to the league.

Harper's shot is not so great. Look at his leg form when he takes a shot; it's closer to garbage than great.

Harper's NBA comp is James Harden probably with half the talent. No second player like him. Great driver, foul merchant, thick guard, can pass pretty well. His moves even look like Harden/