Josh Giddey contract upside / risk matrix

[Ben]

He was mostly universally good against all opponents.

Edited my post, but I think my thought is the schedule doesn't remove his accomplishments, it just maybe shrinks my confidence in the sample size about 10-15%, so adds more variance/risk.

The size of the sample is what has to give everyone pause. Post-ASG is like 27% of his season... one season... and that's really the basis on which Giddy and his reps are insisting he be valued.

Any smart team should value him on his entire body of work, especially since it's been compressed into 4 seasons. It's all fairly recent. Career TS% of 53.5% (below average for his positions), PER of 16.4% (above average), overall a better-than-average player (even as a very young guy) but not vastly better than average-- a guy who absolutely has not been an elite 3P shooter (or even an average 3p shooter) for the bulk of his minutes. Not a good defender, not a great off-ball player yet, but good at a lot of other things.

For most of my fandom years, that would not have translated into anything remotely like $30M/year in present-day numbers. Is he good enough to be the 2nd-best or 3rd-best player on a championship team? (Myles Turner just signed for $20.5M/year as the best available FA, albeit at a different position; D'Angelo Russell signed for under $6M/year, and he's supposed to be in his physical prime and has put up numbers not way off from Giddey's over a much longer period of time.) I have strong doubts; maybe some of you differ. If he's not that, then what are the team's plans for him and his contract supposed to be if/when we get a shot at a true max player who can lead the team?

Just trying to lay out the kinds of things that a team should be thinking about, as you (Doug) have been doing with your arbitrage analyses.

FWIW, ESPN had Giddey as the #1 free agent, ahead of Turner, to my recollection.

I can't speak to that. But which one would you rather have for the next 2-3 years, especially if you're competing for a title?

EDIT: keep in mind that Turner is at his peak, has been an elite rim-protector for many years, was among the top 3 players on a championship-level team, and his past 3 years of 3P shooting have been better than Giddey's past 3 years.
And regardless of one's answer, we should keep in mind that Turner just got far less than what Giddey purports to want.

[Ben]

I'm gonna make one further point about Josh Giddey. I like the guy. (That's not the point I'm gonna make.) I was really pleased when the Bulls got him. He's young, he has potential. Those sure were some super-fun games late last season when he and Coby were going nuts.

But here's the point. As I was writing my previous post, a line popped into my head from an early issue of the graphic novel Sandman, where John Constantine asks: "Did you ever have one of those days when something just seems to be trying to tell you somebody?"

There was a reason why the salary comparison of D'Angelo Russell popped into my head when I was thinking about Josh Giddey's apparent demands. It's because in the back of my mind, in a nagging way, Giddey keeps reminding me of guys like Russell.

Now look, before you jump down my throat, I'm well aware that one-off player comparisons aren't worth much. And I would never claim that those two are identical players. There's just something that keeps sticking in my mind about the two of them, hence the Sandman quote. Russell was everyone's darling for a while. They're both tall guys who can play the point but also defend other positions, neither one has played the kind of defense that his size might have given fans reason to hope, neither one has provided quite the on-court "oomph" that their fans might have wanted. Russell has gotten some big contracts in his time... and now he's back to being a $6M guy right in the years when he should be in his physical prime. His peak years never justified the money that he received.
Career comparison
https://rb.gy/xrdhqe

Again, I would never claim that they're identical players or that one guy's career arc dictates the other's. I just got hit with some weird similarity feeling-- which happens to be borne out by their per36 averages (Giddey being a much better rebounder, Russell a better 3P shooter and scorer), even though I didn't know that before looking it up-- so I'm sharing it with y'all. Hopefully Giddey stays here at a manageable cost and has a bigger impact than Russell has achieved.

[jnrjr79]

The size of the sample is what has to give everyone pause. Post-ASG is like 27% of his season... one season... and that's really the basis on which Giddy and his reps are insisting he be valued.

Any smart team should value him on his entire body of work, especially since it's been compressed into 4 seasons. It's all fairly recent. Career TS% of 53.5% (below average for his positions), PER of 16.4% (above average), overall a better-than-average player (even as a very young guy) but not vastly better than average-- a guy who absolutely has not been an elite 3P shooter (or even an average 3p shooter) for the bulk of his minutes. Not a good defender, not a great off-ball player yet, but good at a lot of other things.

For most of my fandom years, that would not have translated into anything remotely like $30M/year in present-day numbers. Is he good enough to be the 2nd-best or 3rd-best player on a championship team? (Myles Turner just signed for $20.5M/year as the best available FA, albeit at a different position; D'Angelo Russell signed for under $6M/year, and he's supposed to be in his physical prime and has put up numbers not way off from Giddey's over a much longer period of time.) I have strong doubts; maybe some of you differ. If he's not that, then what are the team's plans for him and his contract supposed to be if/when we get a shot at a true max player who can lead the team?

Just trying to lay out the kinds of things that a team should be thinking about, as you (Doug) have been doing with your arbitrage analyses.

FWIW, ESPN had Giddey as the #1 free agent, ahead of Turner, to my recollection.

I can't speak to that. But which one would you rather have for the next 2-3 years, especially if you're competing for a title?

EDIT: keep in mind that Turner is at his peak, has been an elite rim-protector for many years, was among the top 3 players on a championship-level team, and his past 3 years of 3P shooting have been better than Giddey's past 3 years.
And regardless of one's answer, we should keep in mind that Turner just got far less than what Giddey purports to want.

I’d say the last 30 games of Giddey is better than Turner, but overall Turner is better. I’m just noting that the Turner contract may not set the value for Giddey, particularly because Turner is fully baked and Giddey is a sort of projection/upside play.