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miamiheat319 wrote:Mike Miller got two rings as a key player off the bench, I don't think that's too bad

Yea plus Miller was just a product of his draft class being terrible. You know its bad when Kenyon Martin was the #1 pick... and it was actually the correct choice! The rest was mostly a giant trash bin. Miller had the best career, and 2nd best career was probably Jamal Crawford

-Luke- wrote:Michael Carter-Williams had the best NBA debut of all those players.

Unfortunately it was the best game of his career.

Brandon Jennings scored 55 points in the 7th game of his career. Never got anywhere close to looking like that unstoppable ever again.

Might mouse and Maple Mamba don't belong on this list.

DavidSterned wrote:Don Meineke, Ernie DiGregorio, and MCW are the true bottom 3.

Looked these guys up, seems like a great call. The knowledge on this forum is insane.

Stephon Castle.

Never had another good season after his ROY award.

Mark Jackson may not be the worst but he absolutely deserves a mention as a top candidate. Peaked after his 2nd season. He was a glorified journeyman who has a better reputation than he deserves because of his coaching and announcing careers. Great passer but quickly overstayed his welcome with the Knicks because of his arrogance. He was divisive and most of his teammates hated him.

He was a locker room cancer throughout his career and all-in-all a serviceable, should-be forgotten PG that stays fresh in our brains because of his torturous announcing tenure.

MrGoat wrote:

Celts17Pride wrote:How can this thread go on so long without a mention of Ben Simmons?

He wasn't even an actual rookie when he was awarded it so people forgot. I never considered players who missed their first seasons to injury actual rookies

I mean if you play 0 games as a rookie it kind of doesn't count right? This is like claiming that if someone signs up for college but gets really sick they still move into 2nd year classes despite missing every single class of their freshman year.

Now if some guy plays like 15 games a rookie then gets a massive injury, sure they had their rookie season.

antonac wrote:Tyreke and Brogdan have probably had better careers than Ben Simmons.

Wiggins definitely has.

MCW was so wildly bad as an actual player. Brogdon was underwhelming compared to your standard ROY but was a good starter/sixth man for a while.

AussieBuck wrote:MCW was so wildly bad as an actual player. Brogdon was underwhelming compared to your standard ROY but was a good starter/sixth man for a while.

I wouldn't put Brogdon in the conversation at all.
He simply just plateaued early because he was already NBA ready coming into the league. So he stood out early.

So I'm doing a project right now that my data is not yet complete for, but is at least somewhat relevant here so I'll share a bit.

I'm looking at - among other things - a player's best 4-year RAPM run (nbarapm.com), meaning the player had to play for all 4 seasons in question.

This doesn't tell us about longevity of course, and beyond that it's by no means a perfect measure of "4-year achievement", so do take it with a grain of salt when it comes to any actual ranking, but I think the data gives us some perspective.

If I do this from '96-97, when PBP data begins, here's how the ROYs stack up by this measure:

'96-97: Allen Iverson +3.0
'97-98: Tim Duncan +8.9
'98-99: Vince Carter +5.6
'99-00: Elton Brand +3.8, Steve Francis +4.0
'00-01: Mike Miller +2.8
'01-02: Pau Gasol +3.6
'02-03: Amar'e Stoudemire +1.1
'03-04: LeBron James +10.5
'04-05: Dwight Howard +5.3
'05-06: Chris Paul +9.1
'06-07: Brandon Roy +3.4
'07-08: Kevin Durant +6.5
'08-09: Derrick Rose +1.1
'09-10: Tyreke Evans +0.6
'10-11: Blake Griffin +2.8
'11-12: Kyrie Irving +5.9
'12-13: Damian Lillard +5.7
'13-14: Michael Carter-Williams -0.1
'14-15: Andrew Wiggins +0.9
'15-16: Karl-Anthony Towns +3.9
'16-17: Malcolm Brogdon +1.9
'17-18: Ben Simmons +0.2
'18-19: Luka Doncic +3.3
'19-20: Ja Morant +1.9
'20-21: LaMelo Ball +0.8
'21-22: Scottie Barnes -1.4

With a 4-year study, that's as far as we can go, and even then we should keep in mind that for more recent years, this includes the early seasons of their career which you'd hope would underrate them here.

But taking the numbers at face value, here are the bottom 10 of the list:

1. Scottie Barnes -1.4
2. Michael Carter-Williams -0.1
3. Ben Simmons +0.2
4. Tyreke Evans +0.6
5. LaMelo Ball +0.8
6. Andrew Wiggins +0.9
7. Derrick Rose +1.1
(tie) Amar'e Stoudemire +1.1
9. Malcolm Brogdon +1.9
(tie) Ja Morant +1.9

I should also note that '22-23 ROY definitely looks to top the list in one more year when he's eligible. For comparison:

Barnes' 3-year RAPM for his first 3 years: -1.0
Paolo's 3-year RAPM for his first 3 years: -4.8

It would take something incredible in Paolo's 4th year to keep him from debuting at #1, but so long as he does turn the corner and plays a lengthy career, it won't be hard to move up ahead of the MCW's of the world.

Doctor MJ wrote:So I'm doing a project right now that my data is not yet complete for, but is at least somewhat relevant here so I'll share a bit.

I'm looking at - among other things - a player's best 4-year RAPM run (nbarapm.com), meaning the player had to play for all 4 seasons in question.

This doesn't tell us about longevity of course, and beyond that it's by no means a perfect measure of "4-year achievement", so do take it with a grain of salt when it comes to any actual ranking, but I think the data gives us some perspective.

If I do this from '96-97, when PBP data begins, here's how the ROYs stack up by this measure:

'96-97: Allen Iverson +3.0
'97-98: Tim Duncan +8.9
'98-99: Vince Carter +5.6
'99-00: Elton Brand +3.8, Steve Francis +4.0
'00-01: Mike Miller +2.8
'01-02: Pau Gasol +3.6
'02-03: Amar'e Stoudemire +1.1
'03-04: LeBron James +10.5
'04-05: Dwight Howard +5.3
'05-06: Chris Paul +9.1
'06-07: Brandon Roy +3.4
'07-08: Kevin Durant +6.5
'08-09: Derrick Rose +1.1
'09-10: Tyreke Evans +0.6
'10-11: Blake Griffin +2.8
'11-12: Kyrie Irving +5.9
'12-13: Damian Lillard +5.7
'13-14: Michael Carter-Williams -0.1
'14-15: Andrew Wiggins +0.9
'15-16: Karl-Anthony Towns +3.9
'16-17: Malcolm Brogdon +1.9
'17-18: Ben Simmons +0.2
'18-19: Luka Doncic +3.3
'19-20: Ja Morant +1.9
'20-21: LaMelo Ball +0.8
'21-22: Scottie Barnes -1.4

With a 4-year study, that's as far as we can go, and even then we should keep in mind that for more recent years, this includes the early seasons of their career which you'd hope would underrate them here.

But taking the numbers at face value, here are the bottom 10 of the list:

1. Scottie Barnes -1.4
2. Michael Carter-Williams -0.1
3. Ben Simmons +0.2
4. Tyreke Evans +0.6
5. LaMelo Ball +0.8
6. Andrew Wiggins +0.9
7. Derrick Rose +1.1
(tie) Amar'e Stoudemire +1.1
9. Malcolm Brogdon +1.9
(tie) Ja Morant +1.9

I should also note that '22-23 ROY definitely looks to top the list in one more year when he's eligible. For comparison:

Barnes' 3-year RAPM for his first 3 years: -1.0
Paolo's 3-year RAPM for his first 3 years: -4.8

It would take something incredible in Paolo's 4th year to keep him from debuting at #1, but so long as he does turn the corner and plays a lengthy career, it won't be hard to move up ahead of the MCW's of the world.

Interesting. Thanks for the read, Doc. Looking forward to the development.

From 1980-2020, I would say the weakest ROYs have been:

1) MCW - fell off
2) Evans - fell off
3) Griffith - high level role player
4) Person - high level role player
5) Okafor - solid career as a good center
6) Jackson - very nice career but never considered a real star
7) Francis - very short peak and fell off a cliff after his 4th season
8) Miller - solid career as a good role player
9) Brogdon - solid career as a good role player
10) Wiggins - nice career but never considered a true all-star

But I would contextualize this by noting that guys like MCW and Brogdon were not top 10 picks and overachieved as rookies in weak draft classes.

Bad Bart wrote:Surprised there isn't a better answer than the ones provided, seems like ROY's in the NBA have by and large had decent careers.

Kinda makes sense, if you excel as a 19-20 year old in the best league in the world, you're probably going to be able to hold your own as your body and experience develops.

Celts17Pride wrote:How can this thread go on so long without a mention of Ben Simmons?

3x allstar
2x all defense
1x all-nba

Guys like MCW and Tyreke Evans never came close to these accolades. Ben Simmons has disappointed for the level of hype he had but he's had a better career than those guys.

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:Self explanatory.
Without going too far back:

1) MCW
2) Tyreke Evans
3) Malcolm Brogdon
4) Mike Miller
5) Damon Stoudamire

HM Andrew Wiggins

Scottie Barnes ?

But to be honest Barnes did not deserve to be ROY as Mobley beat him quite handily that year. But NBA wanted to award Raptors the ROY and thus all the stats were thrown out. This put undue pressure on Barnes and he has suffered as a result.

Ben Simmons shouldn't be in this conversation. He may have had the biggest fall-off, but he made 3 all star teams, 2 all defense teams, and 3rd team all-NBA. Brogdon, Tyreke, and some of the others mentioned haven't sniffed any of those achievements. It's true that his decline was fast and brutal, but in 3 years he did more than a lot of other ROYs have done in much longer careers.

ChumboChappati wrote:

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:Self explanatory.
Without going too far back:

1) MCW
2) Tyreke Evans
3) Malcolm Brogdon
4) Mike Miller
5) Damon Stoudamire

HM Andrew Wiggins

Scottie Barnes ?

But to be honest Barnes did not deserve to be ROY as Mobley beat him quite handily that year. But NBA wanted to award Raptors the ROY and thus all the stats were thrown out. This put undue pressure on Barnes and he has suffered as a result.

lol what stats were "thrown out"?
Scottie vs Mobley
PPG 15.3 vs 15
RPG 7.5 vs 8.3
APG 3.5 vs 2.5
Stl 1.1 vs 0.8
BPG 0.7 vs 1.7
TS% 55.2 vs 54.9
BPM 0.9 vs 0.6
VORP 1.9 vs 1.5
PER 16.3 vs 16.1

These 2 could not have been closer. Scottie ended up playing 5 more games and was on the better team, that's probably why he won.

ChumboChappati wrote:

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:Self explanatory.
Without going too far back:

1) MCW
2) Tyreke Evans
3) Malcolm Brogdon
4) Mike Miller
5) Damon Stoudamire

HM Andrew Wiggins

Scottie Barnes ?

But to be honest Barnes did not deserve to be ROY as Mobley beat him quite handily that year. But NBA wanted to award Raptors the ROY and thus all the stats were thrown out. This put undue pressure on Barnes and he has suffered as a result.

To be really honest, this is one crazy conspiracy theory that you're spewing. Barnes "suffered" so much that he became a reserve All Star 2 years after winning ROY. Barnes was the better player in Years 1 and 3, but Year 4 belonged to Mobley, who is the better player today. But to even suggest Barnes being on the list of ROY with the worst career is absurdity.

ChumboChappati wrote:

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:Self explanatory.
Without going too far back:

1) MCW
2) Tyreke Evans
3) Malcolm Brogdon
4) Mike Miller
5) Damon Stoudamire

HM Andrew Wiggins

Scottie Barnes ?

But to be honest Barnes did not deserve to be ROY as Mobley beat him quite handily that year. But NBA wanted to award Raptors the ROY and thus all the stats were thrown out. This put undue pressure on Barnes and he has suffered as a result.

It was close but he averaged 15, 8 and 5 with decent efficiency shooting 49% from the field and on a team that won 48 games.

Mobley had comparable stats (15, 8 and 3 on 50%fg), but because they were so close, generally the guy in the better team gets rewarded.