Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[LyricalRico]

Double Post

[fishercob]

Miller, I wouldn't be against replacing the coaching staff if that's what Ernie felt was needed to take the team to elite level.

McGully, I wouldn't mind Posey here, but not at the price (specifically the years) that he cost. Adding just a guy like Posey strikes me a bit like a band-aid when a tournakit (sp?) is needed. Posey was a great fit in Boston and Miami b/c he fit what they aleady did, but he wouldn't have changed the culture here.

I like Kirilenko. The guy led Russia to a completely improbable world championship a couple of summers ago. I think he'd flourish in a more cosmopolitan city where he could hang with the likes of Ovechkin and Semin. He can defend three positions, doesn't need a lot of shots/plays run for him, etc. I think he'd be reborn here.

He may very well be available in the offseason and could be had for a package of AD, Daniels and Blatche.

Wiz would go into next season with a rotation of Arenas, Young, Deshawn, Dixon, Butler, Jamison, AK, Mcgee, Haywood. That's change we can believe in, baby.

[daSwami]

I'm actually sort of optimistic about this team's long-term prospects. I'm especially enthused about McGee who has all the "unteachibles": size, athleticism and a good frame, add to that his pedigree (the offspring of two pro players) and (we've been led to believe) a good head on his shoulders. In short: he's everything Kwame should've been. That said, he may never fulfill his full potential (I'd put his upside at Bosh-level). And if he doesn't, a skilled 7 footer is always a valuable trade asset. I'm also high on Nick Young's potential, who looks to be one of the most offensively gifted players in the league. He's got amazing body control. I'm just not sure the kid isn't a flake, that's my only worry right now. I hope he's focused enough mentally to develop his game in a meaningful way. I'd also like to see him add some weight to his frame. The third key player in the long-term plan is Blatche. He's a guy who really needs an on- and off-court mentor, and I think Jamison is perfect for that role. They play the same position, and are both given to "creative" shot-making. If AJ could pass along some of his veteran savvy to Blatche, then I hold out some hope for the kid. If not, look for Blatche to have a Tim Thomas-type NBAcareer (read: ultimately inconsequential). And let's not forget about Gil who's only 26 and a top 10 NBA talent, provided he comes back to play at or near pre-injury levels. A BIG IF I realize. But, I think he'll come back strong eventually. Maybe not this season, but next for sure. Now that we have a legit scoring tandem in Young and Butler, Gil might even need to reinvent himself as more of a play-making PG, which would take a lot of will-power on his part (given his scorer's mentality.)But I could see him rising to the challenge - he's just that stubborn. So long as he's a threat to score (I don't see him ever NOT being a scoring threat), he's got value to this team. So that's what? 4 young studs to build around (apologies to Pech and DMac - I love you both, but I'm just not that optimistic that either of you have long and prosperous NBA careers ahead of you). Plus when you consider that Caron and Haywood still have a few good years left in them, the transition from mediocrity to powerhouse might be less painful. Not so much AD, AJ, Etan, Stevenson, and DSong - all of whom are expendable long-term, imho.

[doclinkin]

Otherwise Brendan is our strongest trading piece, since he'll never resign with the team if we get another big man controversy.

That's an interesting take on it and I can see how Haywood might see McGee as a much bigger threat to his job than Etan. But with a nice extension that takes him past his prime could placate that, especially if it's done this offseason before a training camp battle for the starting job. And if after that it's clear that McGee is better and Haywood wants out, he'll still be a great trading piece to have.

Thing is, Brendan isn't stupid. Recall that Brendan re-upped last time when he was a relatively unknown quantity in the league. He'd been shelved for Etan, Kwame etc, fussed a bit with the coach. He jumped the gun to sign early because both he and the KFB (with whom he'd been feuding and battling for PT) were up for a re-up. He wanted to get in early and stick it to the guy.

Now though I think Brendan has set a pretty decent pricetag for himself. Not just from last year's performance, but from his longterm track record -- in a league where all teams are now in-depth stat-conscious (not just Seattle, the Mavs and the Knicks). The Spurs just paid Mason a good chunk, how much you think they'd pay Haywood? There are ton of teams who would love a big smart defensive center. That's often the final piece in a Finals contender.

The problem exists no matter what: he's bound to be paid. But it helps him even consider a hometown discount if it's demonstrated clearly he's a keystone player in the future plans (of a winning team) here.

If not, if we lose him, fine. Personally I'd like to keep him, to mentor the youngster. McGee grows quicker banging with Haywood. And the depth at 5 would be nice, but even nicer if McGe can also seize minutes from Jamison. Look, we suffered Ruffin at 4, young Big Daddy Wookie is a damn sight better upgrade from that.

To paraphrase q-tip: Blatche is Blatche. He's taking a longer walk up the learning curve, but I don't see where he sets any precedent for McGee, especially since the BDW has already toned down and simplified his game to suit the team needs. If he's as quick a study as he's showing, he'll add a move every offseason.

Truth is though, in any veteran swap scenario, Haywood is the one vet who's a tradeable commodity. You put his contract with any other stinker of a deal we're carrying and suddenly you have something pretty decent. People pay well for big, solid, and defensively strong. If we can't play him next to the future, well he'll see that same as anyone else and we might as well get what we can, not have to overpay to keep him as a reliable back-up. Just seems to me if he _can_ play next to a developing McGee, then WE"RE the team with that final puzzle piece in place, no need to hunt and pay extra.

So. Yeah. Continuity, Chemistry. Upgrades where possible. Etan's huge expiring deal may land a quality veteran role player at a need position from a contender in the 'Bron sweepstakes.

[LyricalRico]

Double Post

[LyricalRico]

It seems to me, we have three choices:
1. Trade youth and picks for better "win-now" vets and go for a title next season.
2. Trade vets for cap space and youth, build towards the future
3. Stand pat and hope that the youngsters continue to improve before the vets decline too much.

I've been thinking about this and I'm not sure that #2 on nate's list isn't a contradiction of itself because we'll likely have to use youth in order to move the vets for cap space. I mean, is anybody taking Songaila+Stevenson without us including a pick or a prospect? I doubt it.

I think the scenarios may instead look like this:

1. Trades
A) Borrow from the future to swap our junk for a star and make a run with this group.
or
B) Borrow from the future to undo the mistakes of the past and clear our cap.

2. No Trades
Bench the vets, play the kiddies, and lose enough games build through the draft.

3. A little of both
Determine which prospects to build around and commit to them. Use any other prospects and future picks to make whatever moves you can make, either for cap space or for a talent up grade.

My choice is # 3. It doesn't put us in a position where we add another max or near-max deal and still fall flat on our faces (a potential of 1a). It also doesn't depend on people taking our cap space instead of somebody else's (a potential of 1b). We're also not putting ourselves in the position of the Blazers where they now have too much young talent and need to trade for a veteran to take the next step (a potential of 2).

Number 3 on my list is a balanced approach where we build for the future in a targeted way and maximize our other assets at the same time. I would focus on developing Young, McGee, and McGuire. I would then use Blatche, Pecherov, the MEM pick, and our 2009 first to get the best possible return on a package that includes Songaila and Stevenson. That could be a deal for 2009 or 2010 expirings. Or it could be a deal for a guy with a similar cap number but who can actually help us win games. Either way we benefit.

[Komodo]

Hey, Raptors fan here. I haven't read through the entire thread, so here goes.

I was just wondering how you guys feel about your team moving foward. You've tied up an awful lot of money in Arenas and Jamison. Butler's contract is great. Stevenson's is good value. You also have some interesting young pieces in Blatche, Young, and McGee.

Personally, I feel like my team is in need a major shakeup. Bosh can leave in 2010. JO's contract is massive, but also expires in '10 so not all is lost. He's playing behind CB and JO, but Bargnani has been much, much better for us this year. Calderon was just signed to a cheap, long-term deal. But we have a lot of issues.

If I were Colangelo, one guy I'd take a look at would be Arenas. Just signed to a monster contract, and his injury woes are very worrisome. Are they the beginning of a trend of just an anomoly? It remains to be seen. Pairing him with Bosh would be intriguing.

Calderon is one of the better PGs in the league, and signed to a very fair contract. Bargnani is loaded with potential, but is still inconsistent and is stuck behind CB and JO. (Might I add that, at his prime, I'd consider him a mix of Dirk and Okur- not quite the athlete as Dirk, but much more agile and way better ball control than Okur). He's still young, just turned 23. I think a change of scenery would help unlock his potential.

Is Arenas untouchable? Or are some of you having second thoughts? GA has his pros and cons, both of which I'm sure your all well aware, but me (as a Raps fan) would consider acquiring him a gamble, with his injuries and length/amount of contract.

Does a package of Calderon/Bargnani + for Arenas bring any enticement to the table?

[yungal07]

Does a package of Calderon/Bargnani + for Arenas bring any enticement to the table?

No it doesn't. I, for one, dislike Bargnani's game and his development, so it comes down to Calderon for Arenas which is an easy no for me. Calderon is a good player. When healthy, Arenas is a top 10 player in the NBA.

Only Bosh gets you Arenas. Sorry.

[nate33]

Hey, Raptors fan here. I haven't read through the entire thread, so here goes.

I was just wondering how you guys feel about your team moving foward. You've tied up an awful lot of money in Arenas and Jamison. Butler's contract is great. Stevenson's is good value. You also have some interesting young pieces in Blatche, Young, and McGee.

Personally, I feel like my team is in need a major shakeup. Bosh can leave in 2010. JO's contract is massive, but also expires in '10 so not all is lost. He's playing behind CB and JO, but Bargnani has been much, much better for us this year. Calderon was just signed to a cheap, long-term deal. But we have a lot of issues.

If I were Colangelo, one guy I'd take a look at would be Arenas. Just signed to a monster contract, and his injury woes are very worrisome. Are they the beginning of a trend of just an anomoly? It remains to be seen. Pairing him with Bosh would be intriguing.

Calderon is one of the better PGs in the league, and signed to a very fair contract. Bargnani is loaded with potential, but is still inconsistent and is stuck behind CB and JO. (Might I add that, at his prime, I'd consider him a mix of Dirk and Okur- not quite the athlete as Dirk, but much more agile and way better ball control than Okur). He's still young, just turned 23. I think a change of scenery would help unlock his potential.

Is Arenas untouchable? Or are some of you having second thoughts? GA has his pros and cons, both of which I'm sure your all well aware, but me (as a Raps fan) would consider acquiring him a gamble, with his injuries and length/amount of contract.

Does a package of Calderon/Bargnani + for Arenas bring any enticement to the table?

It's too early to say. If Arenas can come back and play like his former self, I'd definitely rather have him than Calderon/Bargnani. But if he's only 85% of the player he once was, then I would consider going in a new direction. Of course, if it was readily apparent that Arenas was no longer the player he once was, then Toronto wouldn't make the offer.

A better plan might be to dump Jamison and Songaila for expiring contracts, and then make a play for Chris Bosh in 2010.

[Ruzious]

Calderon is one of the better PGs in the league, and signed to a very fair contract. Bargnani is loaded with potential, but is still inconsistent and is stuck behind CB and JO. (Might I add that, at his prime, I'd consider him a mix of Dirk and Okur- not quite the athlete as Dirk, but much more agile and way better ball control than Okur). He's still young, just turned 23. I think a change of scenery would help unlock his potential.

Is Arenas untouchable? Or are some of you having second thoughts? GA has his pros and cons, both of which I'm sure your all well aware, but me (as a Raps fan) would consider acquiring him a gamble, with his injuries and length/amount of contract.

Does a package of Calderon/Bargnani + for Arenas bring any enticement to the table?

I'd consider it, because this is year 3 of Arenas injuries, and if he doesn't come back strong, his contract will cripple the franchise for several years. I think you're under-selling Calderon and over-selling Bargnani. Calderon is a helluva PG.

[Komodo]

I'd consider it, because this is year 3 of Arenas injuries, and if he doesn't come back strong, his contract will cripple the franchise for several years. I think you're under-selling Calderon and over-selling Bargnani. Calderon is a helluva PG.

i.e, undervaluing Calderon- That may be. He averages 10 shots a game on great percentages. Racks up 9 assists a game. Leads the league in assist-to-turnover ratio. Still young, great contract. A leader, very vocal. Great teammate. Definately a great fit for any team wishing to abandon a shoot first lead guard, especially with other capable scorers on ur team.

I personally like Bargnani. He is a legit 7 footer. A legit 260 lbs. His legs are very thick, like tree trunks, allowing him to already play exceptional low post defense one on one. His blocks have gone way up, over 2 per 36 minutes. Despite his size, he is very agile with and without the ball. Has a great looking shot. Has developed a post game in the off season.

Anyways, Arenas is great. But his knee concerns and massive contract make it a tempting offer imo.

I'd like to add, I wouldn't be begging to make this move. I'd probably explore other avenues first, but would consider this trade. I think the risk with said move is fairly high.

Thanks for the responses, btw.

[likwitdesi]

actually that proposed raps trade is not bad. id want to see what pick we end up with in the draft to see whether or not we get rubio because calderon and rubio are redundant. to me, bargnani flashes sheed potential with that outside game and low-post defense. he would be another great piece in building the wizards' future. calderon, despite his horrible defense, will probably be an all-star at PG this year.

[Ruzious]

I personally like Bargnani. He is a legit 7 footer. A legit 260 lbs. His legs are very thick, like tree trunks, allowing him to already play exceptional low post defense one on one. His blocks have gone way up, over 2 per 36 minutes. Despite his size, he is very agile with and without the ball. Has a great looking shot. Has developed a post game in the off season.

I hadn't realized he was that heavy - figured he was more like 235ish. Maybe he is a more valuable piece than I thought. I'm liking your trade idea for the Wiz. If Arenas shows he's 90% before the trade deadline, this might be a logical move later on for both teams.

[Ruzious]

actually that proposed raps trade is not bad. id want to see what pick we end up with in the draft to see whether or not we get rubio because calderon and rubio are redundant. to me, bargnani flashes sheed potential with that outside game and low-post defense. he would be another great piece in building the wizards' future. calderon, despite his horrible defense, will probably be an all-star at PG this year.

And Calderon is just barely young enough to build with - though maybe the Wiz would then trade him for a younger PG.

[Komodo]

I hadn't realized he was that heavy - figured he was more like 235ish. Maybe he is a more valuable piece than I thought. I'm liking your trade idea for the Wiz. If Arenas shows he's 90% before the trade deadline, this might be a logical move later on for both teams.

I know, eh?

tbh, he was 250 when we drafted him in 06. Now, 260.

and so the intrigue rears its ugly head but seriously, there are many Raps fan who are still very high on him, and for good reason.

[BruceO]

If we are looking at young players. The players I'm high on right now who are not on our squad that are possibly attainable and undervalued
in the draft - Ricky Rubio and Blake Griffin
Pgs Calderon
Sg--Rudy Fernandez, Bellinelli
SF's-- Beasley ( I know they play him at PF), Granger, Marvin Williams, Travis Outlaw
PF's--Yi, Bargagni
C's -- Marc gasol, Brooke Lopez

our most Dire needs are at the Forward spots. I know we got all stars there but its ridiculous that Deshawn is defending T mac and is on fire while Caron is around. Ridiculous that we have no Team D coming from the PF spot. No size. Granted I love our forwards. We have to get championship level players without obvious weaknesses. Yeah Tmac just hit another 3 as I speak.

[BruceO]

I'd currenly evaluate vince carter, Yi, Bargagni and Calderon.
The possible trades are Arenas for Calderon and Bargagni
and Caron and Jamison for Carter and Yi

Calderon/ Deshawn
Carter/ Nick Young
?
Yi/Bargagni/ Blatche/ Pech
Haywood/McGee

Surplus is AD, McGuire, Dsong and Etan so far

We would be missing Gils scoring and penetration at the guard spot but Carter and Nick Might step in for that. Calderon will distribute well. We could also look to draft Ricky Rubio and add an all around player like a Rudy Fernandez.

Develop the PF's where we will have Yi, Bargagni, Blatche, Pecherov and possibly McGee playing in this position. One of them can develop to a championship caliber player at the PF spot. Defensively they have to be able to be good defensively so teams don't kill us with an inside out game. Also their ability to play C and play the high post is necessary. These Young PF's have that potential. In the draft I like Blake Griffin

Start Haywood and bring in McGee either behind him or in Tandem. Also potential to play more skilled Yi, Bargagni, Blatche, Pecherov in that spot or in tandem. They have to be able to provide low scoring threat together, rebound well and protect the interior and inside out games well.

I'd use the SF to fill in the extra needs the team will be lacking. Defensive SF's like Battier would be excellent. Good big three point shooters who provide excellent spacing like Peja or Kapono would be good too.

My concerns are in this lineup how quickly our PF''s would develop. Whether we will have any toughness in that lineup or whether we should go for Blake griffin if we get so lucky. Griffin can become a monster he's averaging 18 rebounds is a true PF and is averaging 22 points on 85 percent from the field.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Blake-Griffin-1268/

My other concern is who will put pressure on D's if gil is not there, Will Calderon and Vince do the trick? How long is their window. Is it worth it to do that just to acquire Bargagni? if yes I do that trade.

If I find Bargagni or Yi will be unquestonably better than the other I only do one trade. If they both will be good I do both trades as an investment. Then seek out more toughness, pressure on offenses, Defense and spacing through other players

[BruceO]

arggh I'm sorry just frustrated. three posts in a row you can tell I'm thinking about the future.
No I don't want to get rid of Gil. He's a beast. Calderon distributes but he doesn't put pressure on D's with penetration. Gil's a beast. I'll take him at our PG and if we can't win with him at Pg the issue is elsewhere.
No I don't want to get rid of Caron. But I honestly don't think he should be playing SF especially with the big SF's roaming about. I think he defends most 2's better than he defends 3's.
I relunctantly want to give up Jamison but it has to be for a sure thing. For the PF spot. I have been banking on blatche because I theoretically want a PF who can defend the C spot as well as I've seen Gasol, Duncan, Rasheed, KG do and they are contenders.
I like Bargagni but i'm unsure about his caliber when he doesn't rebound that well and I'm questioning his defense and toughness. Until then I keep an eye on him. I like Yi but I haven't watched his D that well. He's not scoring with good fg efficiency. Don't know how good he is when it comes to his TS% but he's a good rebounder.
Only player on the trades I liked is vince only because we are missing Gil so much. But his price is arggh
So ping pong balls. Blake Griffin cause we already have Gil and don't need Rubio unless he's phenomenal and we can play him with Gil or move gil more sensibly.
but some things gotta change. Our ability to defend the individual and team offenses at the Forward spots. Our young players gotta develop more too. It's better for us to get a good draft position than limp into the playoffs like we always do and lose. Look at chicago and Miami and Boston changing overnight when the draft is good. Look at Cleveland.
I wanted to be chicago and Miami last season because I thought Beasley, Mayo and Rose were that good. I wanted to tank Oden year and even Lebron year. If Griffin and rubio are that good. I want to tank and develop young players and get someone from somewhere. So we are no longer mediocre.

[Dat2U]

Calderon is one of the better PGs in the league, and signed to a very fair contract. Bargnani is loaded with potential, but is still inconsistent and is stuck behind CB and JO. (Might I add that, at his prime, I'd consider him a mix of Dirk and Okur- not quite the athlete as Dirk, but much more agile and way better ball control than Okur). He's still young, just turned 23. I think a change of scenery would help unlock his potential.

Is Arenas untouchable? Or are some of you having second thoughts? GA has his pros and cons, both of which I'm sure your all well aware, but me (as a Raps fan) would consider acquiring him a gamble, with his injuries and length/amount of contract.

Does a package of Calderon/Bargnani + for Arenas bring any enticement to the table?

I'd consider it, because this is year 3 of Arenas injuries, and if he doesn't come back strong, his contract will cripple the franchise for several years. I think you're under-selling Calderon and over-selling Bargnani. Calderon is a helluva PG.

I really do like Calderon, Bargnani not so much. But if the Wizards were to make this trade, it leaves them without a #1 option. If Arenas is healthy and playing well enough to be traded, then he's healthy and well enough to be kept. #1 options are as hard to find as that 20/10 low post monster that everyone wants. Calderon gives us a nice PG, but we already know Butler isn't a #1 option and I don't necessarily see a #1 option in next year's draft.

[Dat2U]

Arenas, Haywood & McGee. That should be the Wizards new big three. They're pretty much untouchable. Everyone else is open for discussion.

I like Butler, but I think pairing him with Young or even Blatche is the type of package that could get us a superstar player. Young is still too one-dimensional for my tastes but he's improving. I'm not totally against keeping him. Blatche will have his moments, but I think his real value is helping clear contracts like Songaila & Stevenson off the cap.

Jamison must go this season. A prospect and an '09 or '10 expiring contract will suffice. Or maybe just an expiring contract if we can get someone like a Ron Artest in return.

AD & Etan should stay, just because they'll expire soon, unless they can be swapped for a player with a similar contract who can provide better results.

The rest of the roster isn't worth talking about, they're nothing more than cap filler.