2012 Draft, Part VI (Draft Week is Here!)

[hands11]

I'm going to say this until the draft. If the WIzards are not picking MKG I want them to move down for 6 & 11. Dion Waiters and Perry Jones are possible and other than getting Anthony Davis nothing would make me happier at the end of the draft.

Add those two players with John Wall and that team has a very bright future.

I wouldn't hate it if it turned out like that. It is riskier on the downside but the upside it nice.

I'd rather have Beal but as a door price, this wouldn't suck. As of right now, the Wizards should start to talk nothing but Robinson. They need to scare the crap out of the Bobcats. If they really want them Robinson, make then pick him at #2.

Cleveland wants to give the 33 or 34 and the Cats want 24. So that is not a done deal. If 34 if all they will offer we can offer 32. That would make Cleveland have to step up offering the 24 to which we say fine...well take Robinson at #3. That would leave the Cats picking between MKG and Barnes at #4 which I think they could live with but it doesn't sound like it is what they want. So how badly do they want Robinson?

If we end up with Beal, Robinson or MKG that works. All of them are strong minded winners. Just not F ing Barnes please. Sure he has talent, but he doesn't have the eye of the Tiger those other three have.

The jockeying for position and bluffing is in full swing.

[Jimmy Recard]

God damn, so we'll be stuck with Crawford starting for another year and a logjam of forwards who can't shoot. Awesome.

[nate33]

As of right now, the Wizards should start to talk nothing but Robinson. They need to scare the crap out of the Bobcats. If they really want them Robinson, make then pick him at #2.

Cleveland wants to give the 33 or 34 and the Cats want 24. So that is not a done deal. If 34 if all they will offer we can offer 32. That would make Cleveland have to step up offering the 24 to which we say fine...well take Robinson at #3. That would leave the Cats picking between MKG and Barnes at #4 which I think they could live with but it doesn't sound like it is what they want. So how badly do they want Robinson?

I don't think we can credibly threaten to draft TRob, but we can threaten to trade the pick. EG needs to secure a contingency pick swap deal with Sacramento. Let it be known that if TRob is on the board at #3, we will trade the pick for Sacramento. People will believe that because under that scenario, we'd still end up with Barnes or MKG at #5.

[cdouglas]

So how close to a done deal is this Cleveland trade up?

This really sucks. He is such the right fit both player and personality for this team. I really wanted to watch this kid in a Wiz uni.

For those that say it is about quality not quantity, maybe now they will consider the trade up idea I mentioned a while ago. I would hate to give up assets to move up but it is what it is and you have to do what you have to do.

With all the trade up trade down scenarios getting rumored, I have lost trade of how this draft will go down. I get the feeling this draft is going to be all over the place. Sucks we didnt just get the 2nd pick like we deserved. Would have been a lot cleaner.

The facts the two people that could screw us out of Beal involve MJ ( getting us back ) and Cleveland just makes it all the less palatable.

Yeah, if MJ does that to us, we should take Robinson!

[verbal8]

I'm going to say this until the draft. If the WIzards are not picking MKG I want them to move down for 6 & 11. Dion Waiters and Perry Jones are possible and other than getting Anthony Davis nothing would make me happier at the end of the draft.

Add those two players with John Wall and that team has a very bright future.

I want to like Perry Jones, but I can't see him anything more than Vesely with less motor and more skill. I think the gap between MKG and who is available at 6 is not enough that the 11 pick can make up the gap.

[cdouglas]

I'm going to say this until the draft. If the WIzards are not picking MKG I want them to move down for 6 & 11. Dion Waiters and Perry Jones are possible and other than getting Anthony Davis nothing would make me happier at the end of the draft.

Add those two players with John Wall and that team has a very bright future.

I want to like Perry Jones, but I can't see him anything more than Vesely with less motor and more skill. I think the gap between MKG and who is available at 6 is not enough that the 11 pick can make up the gap.

We have the #3 pick and you want to drop down to #6? I would rather go for the the 2nd best player in the draft.

[Jay81]

this is sick per M Lee

Grunfeld has drafted one all-star in more than 20 years as an executive in New York, Milwaukee and Washington and Michael Redd, a second-round pick in 2000, hadn’t ascended to all-star status until after Grunfeld had moved on from the Bucks (He selected Devin Harris on behalf of Dallas in 2004).

[hands11]

As of right now, the Wizards should start to talk nothing but Robinson. They need to scare the crap out of the Bobcats. If they really want them Robinson, make then pick him at #2.

Cleveland wants to give the 33 or 34 and the Cats want 24. So that is not a done deal. If 34 if all they will offer we can offer 32. That would make Cleveland have to step up offering the 24 to which we say fine...well take Robinson at #3. That would leave the Cats picking between MKG and Barnes at #4 which I think they could live with but it doesn't sound like it is what they want. So how badly do they want Robinson?

I don't think we can credibly threaten to draft TRob, but we can threaten to trade the pick. EG needs to secure a contingency pick swap deal with Sacramento. Let it be known that if TRob is on the board at #3, we will trade the pick for Sacramento. People will believe that because under that scenario, we'd still end up with Barnes or MKG at #5.

I should have added that. Right. I guess it would be hard to float both of those rumors though maybe it could be done under an... all options are on the table. The key is to cause doubt and make the Cats nervous. But if they are fine with Barnes that might not be enough the scare them. It all depends on if they feel like they could settle for that when they could have had Robinson at 2. It is in their control to get him. Hopefully they really like him and see this is the only way it will happen.

NO - Davis
CATs - Robinson
Wiz - Beal
CLE - MGK
SAC - ?

or

NO - Davis
CLE - Beal
SAC - Robinson
Wiz - MGK
CATs - Barnes

Are they they willing to risk this happening but if they are, I could live with it. Either of those is fine though I want the first option more then the second.

The Wiz just have to tell SAC they would be willing to live with Robinson unless they want to trade up. But even if they don't trade with us, they can take Robinson at 4 so how do the Cats get him at 5?

[nate33]

this is sick per M Lee

Grunfeld has drafted one all-star in more than 20 years as an executive in New York, Milwaukee and Washington and Michael Redd, a second-round pick in 2000, hadn’t ascended to all-star status until after Grunfeld had moved on from the Bucks (He selected Devin Harris on behalf of Dallas in 2004).

He hasn't had a lot of high picks though. He picked in the high teens throughout his Wizards tenure. His only lotto picks were Devin Harris (an eventual All Star), Vesely (probably never will be an All Star), and Wall (will probably be an All Star). We should probably chalk up the Miller trade as a draft failure though.

He blew a couple of late lotto picks in Milwaukee (TJ Ford at #8 and Marcus Haislip at #13).

He did a nice job in New York keeping that team competitive during the twilight of Ewing's career. He never had high picks so it's hard to criticize him for not drafting All Star.

[Jay81]

the funny part is we need a guy like Robinson who can be a dominant defensive rebounder. We need everything.

Which is harder to find...someone like Robinson...someone like Beal or someone like Barnes. What if we just drafted TROB and somehow got Kevin Martin

[Zonkerbl]

this is sick per M Lee

Grunfeld has drafted one all-star in more than 20 years as an executive in New York, Milwaukee and Washington and Michael Redd, a second-round pick in 2000, hadn’t ascended to all-star status until after Grunfeld had moved on from the Bucks (He selected Devin Harris on behalf of Dallas in 2004).

He hasn't had a lot of high picks though. He picked in the high teens throughout his Wizards tenure. His only lotto picks were Devin Harris (an eventual All Star), Vesely (probably never will be an All Star), and Wall (will probably be an All Star). We should probably chalk up the Miller trade as a draft failure though.

He blew a couple of late lotto picks in Milwaukee (TJ Ford at #8 and Marcus Haislip at #13).

He did a nice job in New York keeping that team competitive during the twilight of Ewing's career. He never had high picks so it's hard to criticize him for not drafting All Star.

Have never heard of Marcus Haislip. Were TJ Ford's neck/spine issues known before the draft?

[manifested]

I didn't think the trade necessarily telegraphed Beal over MKG so while I haven't liked the deal, I wasn't really buying that criticism of it. Plus, I would have been OK with MKG as long as we picked up some shooting in round 2 and FA.

But I'm realizing I was wrong. It's not that Grunfeld said "I'm picking Beal" with the trade, it's that he said "I'm under no circumstances taking Thomas Robinson". The Wizards selecting TRob wasn't the most likely scenario due to the wing needs, but it was in play. If Charlotte wanted TRob, the only reason for them to hold onto the pick was fear that the WIzards would pick who they wanted.

At this point, the best play for Grunfeld is to at least appear to shop the pick like crazy, especially to teams who would likely pick a PF. The message has to be that if we don't get who we want at #3, Charlotte won't get who they want at #4. If there is a preference in the organization for one of MKG/Beal over the other, the worst thing he could do is appear to be content with #3 given the current situation. If Cleveland moves up, they get their preferred player who quite likely would be the same one the Wizards prefer.

[Rafael122]

So now the word on Twitter is that the Wizards are getting calls about the #3 pick for Thomas Robinson, who the Bobcats want. I'm sure this is just a smoke screen set up by the Wizards. I really think its best if the Bobcats stay put, get your guy, and focus on the second round. Once they trade out, they have no control over what else happens. Some other team could just as easily slide up and take their guy.

[dangermouse]

He's overdue then hahaha....

Who was the all-star not mentioned?

[Nivek]

The negativity toward Barnes on this board is the result of group think arising from his poor play during the tournament. Those were probably the only games that Barnes' detractors saw him play all season. I'm willing to bet that those down on Barnes were down on James Harden when he struggled during the tournament his last year at ASU.

BTW, Barnes has an NBA body, is apparently a better athlete than we realize and is an underrated defender.

In Beal We Trust.

My analysis of Barnes has only a little to do with his tournament performance. His regular season play was unexceptional. He's a good athlete and he (like many college players) has the potential to be a very good pro. I'd prefer other players, especially where I expect the Wizards to select. I'd consider picking him as high as 9 or 10, but earlier than that I'd pick other guys who I think will make better pros.

[Ruzious]

this is sick per M Lee

Grunfeld has drafted one all-star in more than 20 years as an executive in New York, Milwaukee and Washington and Michael Redd, a second-round pick in 2000, hadn’t ascended to all-star status until after Grunfeld had moved on from the Bucks (He selected Devin Harris on behalf of Dallas in 2004).

He hasn't had a lot of high picks though. He picked in the high teens throughout his Wizards tenure. His only lotto picks were Devin Harris (an eventual All Star), Vesely (probably never will be an All Star), and Wall (will probably be an All Star). We should probably chalk up the Miller trade as a draft failure though.

He blew a couple of late lotto picks in Milwaukee (TJ Ford at #8 and Marcus Haislip at #13).

He did a nice job in New York keeping that team competitive during the twilight of Ewing's career. He never had high picks so it's hard to criticize him for not drafting All Star.

Have never heard of Marcus Haislip. Were TJ Ford's neck/spine issues known before the draft?

No, he was perfectly healthy before taking an awful landing on his tailbone early in his career. Otoh, you gotta take into account that a guy as small as TJ who played as aggressively as he did would have some health issues - and since his game was based on speed and quickness - any injury could make him an ordinary player. Still, I think he was good pick at the time and worth the risk. He was an exciting young player. Marcus Haislip, otoh... terrible pick. He was an athletic PF listed at 240 lbs but looked like he was 220, had an amazingly poor shot selection, and just had no BBIQ. He was kindalike Tim Thomas but worse.

[Nivek]

can someone tell me what's the difference between Beal and Barnes beside Barnes has better size then him and more polished.

Beal vs Barnes Head to Head (per 40, pace adjusted):

2 point conversion rate: 54.1% vs. 46.9%
rebounds: 7.9 vs. 7.1
Combined blocks and steals: 2.6 vs. 1.7
Free Throws/2 point field goal: .83 vs. .52
True Shooting: 58% vs. 53%
PER: 22.0 vs. 21.0*
ORtg: 111.9 vs. 107.8

And this is a comparison between Barnes as a sophomore and Beal as a freshman, when the largest expected leap in quality of play (on average, not in every case obviously) occurs between a player's freshmen and sophomore season. Yes the stats are somewhat cherry picked, but they're also all relevant to either quality of play as a collegiate or correlate well with NBA performance or both.

*This despite Barnes attempting 36% more field goals.

Correction: this BECAUSE Barnes attempted 36% field goals. A player can increase his PER by shooting more frequently so long as he shoots better than something like 27% from the floor. I posted the actual number somewhere in these boards, but I have no idea where it is at this point. This is one of the problems with PER: it does a crappy job of handling offensive efficiency.

[Nivek]

Legion Sports ‏@MySportsLegion
Bobcats & Cavaliers now re-engaged in talks for the 2nd overall pick. Sources tell me that deal is all but likely to be completed. #NBADraft

Sounds like Cleveland will move up. I'm actually excited to hear this. I've had my doubts about Beal and frankly I think this will force Ernie to take a more created draft day approach. A trade down comes into play (not a major trade down, but possibly to 5 or 6). I also think that if we do stay at #3 and select Barnes or MKG that we will still have a hole at SG that the FO knows will need to be addressed. Maybe then they aggressively shop Singleton and Booker for an extra 1st?

Anything past 5 and we don't get MKG or Barnes. We're stuck with Waiters.

I'd rather have Waiters than Barnes. The gap between the two in YODA isn't huge, but it's there.

[cdouglas]

I didn't think the trade necessarily telegraphed Beal over MKG so while I haven't liked the deal, I wasn't really buying that criticism of it. Plus, I would have been OK with MKG as long as we picked up some shooting in round 2 and FA.

But I'm realizing I was wrong. It's not that Grunfeld said "I'm picking Beal" with the trade, it's that he said "I'm under no circumstances taking Thomas Robinson". The Wizards selecting TRob wasn't the most likely scenario due to the wing needs, but it was in play. If Charlotte wanted TRob, the only reason for them to hold onto the pick was fear that the WIzards would pick who they wanted.

At this point, the best play for Grunfeld is to at least appear to shop the pick like crazy, especially to teams who would likely pick a PF. The message has to be that if we don't get who we want at #3, Charlotte won't get who they want at #4. If there is a preference in the organization for one of MKG/Beal over the other, the worst thing he could do is appear to be content with #3 given the current situation. If Cleveland moves up, they get their preferred player who quite likely would be the same one the Wizards prefer.

I'm afraid the Wiz will let Beal slip through their hands and will be very disappointed if they do. I'm tired of watching other teams make an effort in improving their teams while the Wiz accepts mediocre players and sit back twiddling their thumbs as if we're the only team trying to make the playoffs next year. I would never thought to acquire Okafor or Ariza this early in the free agency because I'm sure we could've chosen someone better for this team.

[hands11]

this is sick per M Lee

Grunfeld has drafted one all-star in more than 20 years as an executive in New York, Milwaukee and Washington and Michael Redd, a second-round pick in 2000, hadn’t ascended to all-star status until after Grunfeld had moved on from the Bucks (He selected Devin Harris on behalf of Dallas in 2004).

How many top 5 picks did he have ? That is where most the AS come from.

The draft is just one piece of the puzzle. You get top 5 picks and you likely get all stars. He did bring in CB for Kwame which was a steal. He got Gil on the open market. He was another all star. He got AJ for L8ner. He sent AJ to CLE and got a first round pick and cleared cap. He did magic with cap space turning VV ( I think ) into Kip who got us Crawford and a pick that got combined with another pick and turned in I think Booker or was it Kevin. He got rid of Gils toxic contract and influence and opened the team up to let Wall grow and save cap space. Lewis turned into Oka and Trevor. He got Nene for NY and McGee.

He had the #1 and got Wall. No brainer when you have the first pick unless you do a trade down to 2-5 and more assets. More risky but can work sometimes.

He had the #6 and got Ves. Not enough time to see that produces the results it can. Ves was an upside project. Could have down a trade down but they wanted to tank another year ( strike year ) which is why we have the #3 this year.

They had the #5 and took a swing for the fences. That is the one most are upset about. But MM was/has been/is one of the best 3 pt shooters in the league and they needed that help with that and Randy is the SG on the LAC who are a good team and made a nice playoff run. We didn't like it and it didn't work out but when your owner says win now, you swing for it.

So EG and Ted have made nice moves. EG and Abe made some also but they locked in to early and it blow up.

I like the roster we have now. The cap space is fine and we have the #3 pick. I'm not complaining.