Paolo Banchero

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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#421 » by ReggiesKnicks » Mon Feb 23, 2026 6:36 pm

JMAC3 wrote:https://databallr.com/wowy/ORL/2026/2026/regular/high/wowy/1630532/1630591
https://databallr.com/wowy/ORL/2026/2026/regular/high/wowy/1630532/1641710

Everyone loves the on-off splits to say Paolo is terrible, yet it appears that Suggs and Black are better than Franz when you look at this.

So maybe on/off splits aren't the end all be all.


I think any sane person uses multiple stats.

Where do these guys rank for EPM? I know you love EPM.

BPM is another good measuring stick for comparing higher-usage players.

I'll say this about +/- and On/Off, typically good players don't have 4 consecutive seasons of both negative +/- and On/Off.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#422 » by JMAC3 » Mon Feb 23, 2026 6:38 pm

ReggiesKnicks wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Upperclass wrote:noone hates Paolo.. its just everyone thinks every #1 pick is going to be a HOF, best of alltime type of player and that just isnt the case and there isnt anything wrong with taking a realistic approach to looking at a players potential arc.. the reality is that teams havent figured out when to take the best player available vs when to take the best talent and see what works.. In this case imo.. its obvious Orlando shouldve taken Chet, who wasnt as "talented" but who fit their roster and roster needs.. let Paolo fall to OKC or Houston and then fill out the of their roster with good fits.. or trade down slightly to pick Chet at 3..which is extremely tough to do in the NBA vs NFL


Disagree...

Chet is awesome as the 3rd banana, but if you put him on Orlando he isn't a better first option than Paolo.


DeMar DeRozan is a better 1st option than Draymond Green.


Right now imagine someone saying Kings will be a good team if they swap them and let Draymond be the #1 option. or that the Kings would be a better team with Keegan Murray as the 1st option.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#423 » by ReggiesKnicks » Mon Feb 23, 2026 6:42 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
ReggiesKnicks wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Disagree...

Chet is awesome as the 3rd banana, but if you put him on Orlando he isn't a better first option than Paolo.


DeMar DeRozan is a better 1st option than Draymond Green.


Right now imagine someone saying Kings will be a good team if they swap them and let Draymond be the #1 option. or that the Kings would be a better team with Keegan Murray as the 1st option.


That's foolish.

I think Chet is a better fit in both Orlando and OKC than Paolo is though.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#424 » by JMAC3 » Mon Feb 23, 2026 6:45 pm

ReggiesKnicks wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:https://databallr.com/wowy/ORL/2026/2026/regular/high/wowy/1630532/1630591
https://databallr.com/wowy/ORL/2026/2026/regular/high/wowy/1630532/1641710

Everyone loves the on-off splits to say Paolo is terrible, yet it appears that Suggs and Black are better than Franz when you look at this.

So maybe on/off splits aren't the end all be all.


I think any sane person uses multiple stats.

Where do these guys rank for EPM? I know you love EPM.

BPM is another good measuring stick for comparing higher-usage players.

I'll say this about +/- and On/Off, typically good players don't have 4 consecutive seasons of both negative +/- and On/Off.


Yeah EPM factors in +/-.

Suggs is the better player than Franz and Paolo by both EPM and +/-. Should the Magic get rid of both Franz and Paolo and give the keys to him? Or can we agree the conversation is alot more nuanced than that?
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#425 » by JMAC3 » Mon Feb 23, 2026 6:47 pm

ReggiesKnicks wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
ReggiesKnicks wrote:
DeMar DeRozan is a better 1st option than Draymond Green.


Right now imagine someone saying Kings will be a good team if they swap them and let Draymond be the #1 option. or that the Kings would be a better team with Keegan Murray as the 1st option.


That's foolish.

I think Chet is a better fit in both Orlando and OKC than Paolo is though.


Right and Kon Knuepple is a better fit in OKC than Cade Cunningham, doesn't mean Kon is better player.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#426 » by ReggiesKnicks » Mon Feb 23, 2026 6:50 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
ReggiesKnicks wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:https://databallr.com/wowy/ORL/2026/2026/regular/high/wowy/1630532/1630591
https://databallr.com/wowy/ORL/2026/2026/regular/high/wowy/1630532/1641710

Everyone loves the on-off splits to say Paolo is terrible, yet it appears that Suggs and Black are better than Franz when you look at this.

So maybe on/off splits aren't the end all be all.


I think any sane person uses multiple stats.

Where do these guys rank for EPM? I know you love EPM.

BPM is another good measuring stick for comparing higher-usage players.

I'll say this about +/- and On/Off, typically good players don't have 4 consecutive seasons of both negative +/- and On/Off.


Yeah EPM factors in +/-.

Suggs is the better player than Franz and Paolo by both EPM and +/-.


+/- isn't a measurement of goodness. Saying +/- says Suggs is better is a flawed statement.

Regarding EPM, I think you post the EPM of players more than anyone on this board. Isn't is a box-score derived +/- variant? I'm not super versed with EPM.

I worked closely on ESPN's RPM, RAPM models and some BPM but I was no longer in school once BPM came out.

Should the Magic get rid of both Franz and Paolo and give the keys to him? Or can we agree the conversation is alot more nuanced than that?


I'm having an incredibly nuanced discussion. You didn't even address my nuanced post from this morning in this thread.

Paolo has been a disappointment for a #1 Pick. Paolo has been a disappointment based on his pre-draft comps and where he was being projected following his first 2 years in the league.

That's the reality we live in. We can both criticize Paolo and say "He has the tools and time to turn this around".

Seems fairly nuanced and level headed. Or do you disagree?
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#427 » by ReggiesKnicks » Mon Feb 23, 2026 7:00 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
ReggiesKnicks wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Right now imagine someone saying Kings will be a good team if they swap them and let Draymond be the #1 option. or that the Kings would be a better team with Keegan Murray as the 1st option.


That's foolish.

I think Chet is a better fit in both Orlando and OKC than Paolo is though.


Right and Kon Knuepple is a better fit in OKC than Cade Cunningham, doesn't mean Kon is better player.


OKC needs a secondary playmaker, and Cade is so much better than Kon, especially as a defender but also a playmaker, that OKC would unquestionably prefer Cade to Kon.

I actually think we are side-tracking, but OKC would unquestionably prefer Cade to Kon, just as both OKC and Orlando would prefer Chet to Paolo.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#428 » by JMAC3 » Mon Feb 23, 2026 7:41 pm

Yeah I just think the whole Paolo story is out of hand and everyone seems to be clinging to this very small data point that is impacted by guys around him and not just him.

Yes, he isn't a good shooter, but he is also 6-10 and is top 10 in FTA per game.
He is average to good defender.
He is one of the best passing players in the league for his position.
He is extremely young and already been to the playoffs twice.

Meanwhile guys like Lauri Markkanen, Jalen Johnson, Jaren Jackson, Shaedon Sharpe etc can just hang out on bad teams and nobody is constantly overanalyzing every 5 game sample set.

NBA fans are just funny, if Cade doesn't go far in the playoffs this year, people will start to create narratives around him and then all of sudden him shooting 35-45 times a game will become the narrative.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#429 » by ReggiesKnicks » Mon Feb 23, 2026 9:25 pm

JMAC3 wrote:Yeah I just think the whole Paolo story is out of hand and everyone seems to be clinging to this very small data point that is impacted by guys around him and not just him.


You aren't talking about me though, right? I laid out multiple data points 8-)

Yes, he isn't a good shooter, but he is also 6-10 and is top 10 in FTA per game.


He is a bad shooter. We should just be honest, right? 31.4% 3P, 32.0% last year. He is also inefficient, even though he lives at the free throw line; he is somehow right around Ausar Thompson, Ja Morant, and Draymond Green in terms of True Shooting Added.

To put this into perspective about how inefficient he is, here is a list of PF/C in the Bottom 50 of League-Wide TS+.

Draymond Green
Paolo Banchero
Keegan Murray
Bam Adebayo
Danny Wolf
Jarace Walker
Patrick Williams
Nikola Jovic
P.J. Washington

Basically, a ton of limited offensive players whose defense is their calling card, a couple of young guys, and Paolo Banchero.


He is average to good defender.


Good? Heavens no. He ranks negative to neutral in the following:
DBPM
DRAPM
MAMBA
DARKO
LEBRON
EPM

He is one of the best passing players in the league for his position.


That's...it could be true.

Unfortunately for Paolo, he is so inefficient offensively that his passes don't create good looks for his teammates. That's the value of passing; it needs to generate good offense. In a laboratory setting, Paolo's passing ability is a major boon to his skill set. In reality, his passing isn't enhancing the offense.

He is extremely young and already been to the playoffs twice.


He is one year younger than ANT and Cade. He is the same age as Brandon Miller and Josh Giddey.

Meanwhile guys like Lauri Markkanen, Jalen Johnson, Jaren Jackson, Shaedon Sharpe etc can just hang out on bad teams and nobody is constantly overanalyzing every 5 game sample set.


I never brought these names up before. Who in this thread is bringing them up?

Were any of these players #1 overall picks? Does anyone here actually think any of these players can be the best player on a good team? Of course not. Most can't even be the 2nd best player on a good team.

That's the point all of us are making.

NBA fans are just funny, if Cade doesn't go far in the playoffs this year, people will start to create narratives around him and then all of sudden him shooting 35-45 times a game will become the narrative.


They might, but I won't. This is an incredible strawman, but that's the poster you are. You fabricate these narratives that you then project others to be saying, and then argue against the same fictitious strawman narratives you yourself create.

You fail to address real, nuanced arguments and fail to entertain adult discussion, and instead live in a strawman building you create for yourself and call everyone else out for believing in a strawman you created.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#430 » by JMAC3 » Mon Feb 23, 2026 11:20 pm

Didn't quote you on the post, not sure why you are taking every point I made is so centralized on me thinking that is as response to yours and only your opinion lol

Then make some weird personal attack on me at the end where you tell me the kind of poster I am. Very weird angle to play.

Again, not everything is about you. Go online, everyone on twitter has a Paolo negative take right now, hence the topic being discussed. It has nothing to do with you or your takes or even mine.

Strange way to try to engage with someone over a topic.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#431 » by JMAC3 » Mon Feb 23, 2026 11:29 pm

And yes the general nba fans takes a narrative and runs with it 100 mph and overreacts in the moment.

Which is what is happening now with Paolo.
We did this with Tatum, where he was supposedly a bad superstar.
Jaylen Brown sucked and it was crazy that you thought a player who couldn't go left was good.
Dillion Brooks was supposedly getting sent to China because he was so bad, meanwhile he has helped two teams change course in Houston/Phx.
Joel Embiid was 100% cooked according to media 2 months ago.
Luka Doncic was too fat to play basketball and the entire media shat on him for a bad finals performance to the point you would have thought he was a bum.

People grasp to these narratives in the moment and then make excuses for them later about how none of that was really going on or how it was joking overexaggerated, which I am sure knowing you, you will give me your 2 cents on each of these and do just that and tell me none of that existed or were serious.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#432 » by Cammo101 » Mon Feb 23, 2026 11:56 pm

I'm not sure Paolo is as bad a shooter as his numbers show. He is in a system that has consistently driven down guy's shooting numbers (KCP anyone) and playing on a team with average to bad shooters around him. In a better system, his shooting numbers would improve IMO.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#433 » by Upperclass » Tue Feb 24, 2026 2:00 am

Smart basketball people know exactly what Tatum is
Smart basketball people know exactly what Jaylen Brown is
Dillon Brooks was never leaving the NBA in his prime
Embiid is injured and injury prone with high level of talent.. not sure what the debate is there
Noone who knows NBA basketball thought Donicic was anything less than the 2nd best player in basketball if not occasionally the best..
youre conflating the general fan takes with those of individuals who remark upon players from a different lense
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#434 » by ReggiesKnicks » Tue Feb 24, 2026 2:14 am

JMAC3 wrote:Didn't quote you on the post, not sure why you are taking every point I made is so centralized on me thinking that is as response to yours and only your opinion lol

Then make some weird personal attack on me at the end where you tell me the kind of poster I am. Very weird angle to play.

Again, not everything is about you. Go online, everyone on twitter has a Paolo negative take right now, hence the topic being discussed. It has nothing to do with you or your takes or even mine.

Strange way to try to engage with someone over a topic.


Unfortunately I had read discourse all summer and all of last season about how Paolo was already a Top 25 player in the NBA. That was a popular sentiment surrounding Paolo over the past 2 years.

I didn't then come here to project about how "all of the internet" is talking about how great Paolo is.

Anyways...

Paolo has a lot to prove. Let's see him prove it.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#435 » by ReggiesKnicks » Tue Feb 24, 2026 2:19 am

Cammo101 wrote:I'm not sure Paolo is as bad a shooter as his numbers show. He is in a system that has consistently driven down guy's shooting numbers (KCP anyone) and playing on a team with average to bad shooters around him. In a better system, his shooting numbers would improve IMO.


I'm a firm believer we should assess young players by their tools and skills rather than jump to conclusions because they are in a poor situation.

I couldn't agree more.

Paolo has the talent, the physical traits and a talented team around him. The team has flaws like most teams, but anyone writing off Paolo should remember what many slandered Cade for just a year ago.

My problem with Paolo has always been people putting the cart before the horse. Paolo has all the tools, skills, ability, size. What he hasn't done, which typically takes a while for young players, is to consistently deliver for your team, night in and night out.

I'm all for seeing him shine bright, but he needs to earn it and go through the process rather than being announced as the next best thing.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#436 » by azcatz11 » Tue Feb 24, 2026 4:16 am

Is there anyone here who would take Duren over Banchero in a redraft format?
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#437 » by Chuck Everett » Tue Feb 24, 2026 4:57 am

azcatz11 wrote:Is there anyone here who would take Duren over Banchero in a redraft format?


I'd rather see Banchero on a different team with a different coach before I do that, and I've always been a Jalen Duren guy (felt he should have gone in Jaden Ivey's spot in that draft).
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#438 » by FarBeyondDriven » Tue Feb 24, 2026 8:28 am

Upperclass wrote:noone hates Paolo.. its just everyone thinks every #1 pick is going to be a HOF, best of alltime type of player and that just isnt the case and there isnt anything wrong with taking a realistic approach to looking at a players potential arc.. the reality is that teams havent figured out when to take the best player available vs when to take the best talent and see what works.. In this case imo.. its obvious Orlando shouldve taken Chet, who wasnt as "talented" but who fit their roster and roster needs.. let Paolo fall to OKC or Houston and then fill out the of their roster with good fits.. or trade down slightly to pick Chet at 3..which is extremely tough to do in the NBA vs NFL


literally nobody thinks that. People expect #1 picks in solid drafts to be at minimum all-stars (he's already made one) but hopefully make an all-nba team. HoF talk is reserved for guys who some mention as generational. There's only been a few of those guys and Banchero wasn't one of them. He was a slightly better prospect than Tatum but imho he doesn't have the same drive as Tatum which is why he'll likely fail to quite reach those heights. I think he's carrying too much weight and clearly hasn't worked on his shot but it's possible injuries have prevented that. He's still young so maybe the light bulb goes on and he breaks out. But even if he doesn't, he's already proven he's a #1 on a playoff team so he's a solid #1 pick. However, if this is all he ends up being I'll consider it a disappointment since he's not likely to ever make an all-nba team and given his talent he really should.
Foes..you DO realize I don't see your posts....right?
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#439 » by JMAC3 » Tue Feb 24, 2026 1:32 pm

Upperclass wrote:Smart basketball people know exactly what Tatum is
Smart basketball people know exactly what Jaylen Brown is
Dillon Brooks was never leaving the NBA in his prime
Embiid is injured and injury prone with high level of talent.. not sure what the debate is there
Noone who knows NBA basketball thought Donicic was anything less than the 2nd best player in basketball if not occasionally the best..
youre conflating the general fan takes with those of individuals who remark upon players from a different lense


Yup, thanks for proving my point.

This Paolo story will be the same way in 16 months and people will deny they were ever really all that worried about him, just like the stories I listed out above.
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Re: Paolo Banchero 

Post#440 » by ReggiesKnicks » Tue Feb 24, 2026 3:41 pm

azcatz11 wrote:Is there anyone here who would take Duren over Banchero in a redraft format?


It's definitely close.

Banchero has the tools and skill-set to be a #1 and/or #2 option and carry the bulk of the playmaking load.

Duren is an elite shot finisher who plays Center for the 2nd-best defensive team in the NBA. Duren is also an elite Offensive Rebounder, a strategy that has once again become popular in the NBA for the first time in decades.

Duren is still a full-year+ younger than Banchero.

This would come down to what odds I see on Paolo being the best player on a good team, since I already know Duren can be the 2nd-best player on a great (regular season) team.

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