2023 NBA Draft

[clyde21]

The changing basketball is wiping away the 7 footers. Injury concerns are no coincidence. Also, just check out the leading guys of the champion teams in the past decade, they were led buy guards and wings.

I wouldn't select victor as the 1st pick.

i disagree, there have never been as many good Cs in the league as there are today, and injuries existed for bigs since forever, Walton, Bowie, Oden, etc.

also Chet's injury could just be a freak accident and not indicative of anything moving forward..he's actually been very healthy relatively speaking so far in his career. i wouldn't jump to conclusions here.

[Hal14]

he was never the generational guy people had him pegged as, still my #1 right now and probably one of the best shot blocking prospects we've ever seen but he's not on Zion's level as a prospect who imo was the true generational guy the last 5 yrs or so

i'd put Wemby in the Mobley/Cade tier which is probably the next leg up to 'generational'.

I think I have Scoot and Wemby above where I had Mobley and Cade, but it's not as big of a difference as 'generational' would imply. Scoot I have about where I had Ja - which is...it was pretty clear he'd be a top 10 point guard in his career (at WORST), probably make some all-star games, and maybe more. I feel that way about Scoot, maybe a bit stronger. Wemby I actually feel his likely outcome is worse but his upper bound is as high as it gets for a non-wing (I include Giannis as a wing, but not Jokic/Embiid/etc.). So, he could be in the MVP conversation at some point if his body does not end up being an issue.

i'm just not quite as sold on Scoot as others.

Scoot shot 21.6% from 3 last season. Ja in his last season before getting drafted shot 36.3% from 3. That's a massive difference.

Yes, I know that Scoot was going right from HS to NBA 3 pt line. So that can be used as an excuse for his poor shooting. But it still doesn't change the fact that IMO a player (especially one that is 6'3" or shorter) has to prove they can shoot better than that in order to be considered a top 2 pick.

[clyde21]

he was never the generational guy people had him pegged as, still my #1 right now and probably one of the best shot blocking prospects we've ever seen but he's not on Zion's level as a prospect who imo was the true generational guy the last 5 yrs or so

i'd put Wemby in the Mobley/Cade tier which is probably the next leg up to 'generational'.

I think I have Scoot and Wemby above where I had Mobley and Cade, but it's not as big of a difference as 'generational' would imply. Scoot I have about where I had Ja - which is...it was pretty clear he'd be a top 10 point guard in his career (at WORST), probably make some all-star games, and maybe more. I feel that way about Scoot, maybe a bit stronger. Wemby I actually feel his likely outcome is worse but his upper bound is as high as it gets for a non-wing (I include Giannis as a wing, but not Jokic/Embiid/etc.). So, he could be in the MVP conversation at some point if his body does not end up being an issue.

i'm just not quite as sold on Scoot as others.

Scoot shot 21.6% from 3 last season. Ja in his last season before getting drafted shot 36.3% from 3. That's a massive difference.

Yes, I know that Scoot was going right from HS to NBA 3 pt line. So that can be used as an excuse for his poor shooting. But it still doesn't change the fact that IMO a player (especially one that is 6'3" or shorter) has to prove they can shoot better than that in order to be considered a top 2 pick.

just not sure how u can make that comp at this point, Ja was a sophomore playing in the Ohio Valley conference while Scoot was a 17 yr old playing against grown ass men in the G League.

not saying Scoot's gonna be a great 3pt shooter that's more wait and see for me, but it's not a good comp at this point unless Scoot continues to shoot that poorly this season in the GL as well.

[Hal14]

I think I have Scoot and Wemby above where I had Mobley and Cade, but it's not as big of a difference as 'generational' would imply. Scoot I have about where I had Ja - which is...it was pretty clear he'd be a top 10 point guard in his career (at WORST), probably make some all-star games, and maybe more. I feel that way about Scoot, maybe a bit stronger. Wemby I actually feel his likely outcome is worse but his upper bound is as high as it gets for a non-wing (I include Giannis as a wing, but not Jokic/Embiid/etc.). So, he could be in the MVP conversation at some point if his body does not end up being an issue.

i'm just not quite as sold on Scoot as others.

Scoot shot 21.6% from 3 last season. Ja in his last season before getting drafted shot 36.3% from 3. That's a massive difference.

Yes, I know that Scoot was going right from HS to NBA 3 pt line. So that can be used as an excuse for his poor shooting. But it still doesn't change the fact that IMO a player (especially one that is 6'3" or shorter) has to prove they can shoot better than that in order to be considered a top 2 pick.

just not sure how u can make that comp at this point, Ja was a sophomore playing in the Ohio Valley conference while Scoot was a 17 yr old playing against grown ass men in the G League.

not saying Scoot's gonna be a great 3pt shooter that's more wait and see for me, but it's not a good comp at this point unless Scoot continues to shoot that poorly this season in the GL as well.

First off, Scott was 18 for a good chunk of the games he played on Ignite.

Secondly, let's take a look at a mock draft from the 2018-2019 preseason:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2789663-way-too-soon-2019-nba-mock-draft-rj-barrett-early-favorite-to-go-no-1

Ja was mocked 25th at the time.

It even says in the blurb from this mock "He should gain more national recognition this year if he can improve his scoring skills and three-point shooting."

He then got his 3 pt shooting up significantly, and as a result he went no. 2 in the draft.

Morant was not considered a top 2 pick (or even a lottery pick) until he was able to prove he was at least an average 3 pt shooter.

Yes, playing in a mid major conference also probably contributed to him being underrated in the 2018-2019 preseason, whereas Scoot played in the more competitive g-league. Which is why I'm obviously not saying we should rank Scoot 25th in this year's preseason (although Ja shot 31% from 3 as a freshman, compared to just 21% for Scoot last season).

All I'm saying is that Ja had to prove he was an average (to slightly above average) shooter from 3 first, before people were calling him a top 2 pick.

However, with Scoot people I guess are just jumping to conclusions and just assuming he will improve his shooting, or just forgiving his poor shooting because of the level of comp and how young he is.

I don't care if he was 14 years old. He needs to prove he can shoot THEN he can be a top 2 pick in the draft IMO.

Scoot is 6'2". These are the guys 6'2" or under, drafted in recent memory in the top 5:

Trae Young - shot 36% from 3
Darius Garland - 47.8% from 3. Yes, small sample size of only 5 games but also shot 4/7 at Nike Hoop Summit and shooting was a known strength for him.

If we expand it to PGs 6'4" or under, we also get:
Ja Morant 36.3%
Jalen Suggs 33.7%
Markelle Fultz 41.3%

The lowest is Suggs at 33.7%, but he is also 6'4", 2" taller than Scoot. And Suggs went #5 in the draft.

[clyde21]

Scoot is probably closer to 6'3 than 6'2, and your entire argument is based on some weird and arbitrary cut off points...and yea Ja wasn't seen as a top 2 pick before his class because, again, he was a relatively unknown prospect out of HS who played in OVC in college.

your comps still don't work

Scoot is shooting from NBA 3pt line

Ja and the other college guys are shooting from college 3 pt line

Scoot is playing against grown ass men and former NBA players

Ja wasn't

Scoot has shown good form/mechanics/shot versatility and hits almost 80% of his FTs, not really worried about his shot at this point enough to to drop him down my big board.

[babyjax13]

i'm just not quite as sold on Scoot as others.

Scoot shot 21.6% from 3 last season. Ja in his last season before getting drafted shot 36.3% from 3. That's a massive difference.

Yes, I know that Scoot was going right from HS to NBA 3 pt line. So that can be used as an excuse for his poor shooting. But it still doesn't change the fact that IMO a player (especially one that is 6'3" or shorter) has to prove they can shoot better than that in order to be considered a top 2 pick.

just not sure how u can make that comp at this point, Ja was a sophomore playing in the Ohio Valley conference while Scoot was a 17 yr old playing against grown ass men in the G League.

not saying Scoot's gonna be a great 3pt shooter that's more wait and see for me, but it's not a good comp at this point unless Scoot continues to shoot that poorly this season in the GL as well.

First off, Scott was 18 for a good chunk of the games he played on Ignite.

Secondly, let's take a look at a mock draft from the 2018-2019 preseason:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2789663-way-too-soon-2019-nba-mock-draft-rj-barrett-early-favorite-to-go-no-1

Ja was mocked 25th at the time.

It even says in the blurb from this mock "He should gain more national recognition this year if he can improve his scoring skills and three-point shooting."

He then got his 3 pt shooting up significantly, and as a result he went no. 2 in the draft.

Morant was not considered a top 2 pick (or even a lottery pick) until he was able to prove he was at least an average 3 pt shooter.

Yes, playing in a mid major conference also probably contributed to him being underrated in the 2018-2019 preseason, whereas Scoot played in the more competitive g-league. Which is why I'm obviously not saying we should rank Scoot 25th in this year's preseason (although Ja shot 31% from 3 as a freshman, compared to just 21% for Scoot last season).

All I'm saying is that Ja had to prove he was an average (to slightly above average) shooter from 3 first, before people were calling him a top 2 pick.

However, with Scoot people I guess are just jumping to conclusions and just assuming he will improve his shooting, or just forgiving his poor shooting because of the level of comp and how young he is.

I don't care if he was 14 years old. He needs to prove he can shoot THEN he can be a top 2 pick in the draft IMO.

Scoot is 6'2". These are the guys 6'2" or under, drafted in recent memory in the top 5:

Trae Young - shot 36% from 3
Darius Garland - 47.8% from 3. Yes, small sample size of only 5 games but also shot 4/7 at Nike Hoop Summit and shooting was a known strength for him.

If we expand it to PGs 6'4" or under, we also get:
Ja Morant 36.3%
Jalen Suggs 33.7%
Markelle Fultz 41.3%

The lowest is Suggs at 33.7%, but he is also 6'4", 2" taller than Scoot. And Suggs went #5 in the draft.

FWIW I think that a lot of people had Ja lottery after his first season, even if it wasn't consensus. But you are right that maybe people should be more concerned about his shooting. FWIW I'm not, I think he's the freakiest point guard athlete since the Rose/Westbrook draft. Neither of them could shoot early in their careers (Westbrook's midrange game was pretty decent for a while) but they were devastatingly effective players in their prime. I think Scoot's upper end is something like that, and his lower end is something like Fox. We have enough examples of ball-dominant guards that can't shoot but are good anyway, that I'm not super nervous about it even if he doesn't hit his upper end outcome.

[Catchall]

So Amen Thompson's shooting is pretty rough. That's going to mean everything for his development. He can get space whenever he wants, but he's going to need a functional release, like TMac developed.

[Hal14]

just not sure how u can make that comp at this point, Ja was a sophomore playing in the Ohio Valley conference while Scoot was a 17 yr old playing against grown ass men in the G League.

not saying Scoot's gonna be a great 3pt shooter that's more wait and see for me, but it's not a good comp at this point unless Scoot continues to shoot that poorly this season in the GL as well.

First off, Scott was 18 for a good chunk of the games he played on Ignite.

Secondly, let's take a look at a mock draft from the 2018-2019 preseason:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2789663-way-too-soon-2019-nba-mock-draft-rj-barrett-early-favorite-to-go-no-1

Ja was mocked 25th at the time.

It even says in the blurb from this mock "He should gain more national recognition this year if he can improve his scoring skills and three-point shooting."

He then got his 3 pt shooting up significantly, and as a result he went no. 2 in the draft.

Morant was not considered a top 2 pick (or even a lottery pick) until he was able to prove he was at least an average 3 pt shooter.

Yes, playing in a mid major conference also probably contributed to him being underrated in the 2018-2019 preseason, whereas Scoot played in the more competitive g-league. Which is why I'm obviously not saying we should rank Scoot 25th in this year's preseason (although Ja shot 31% from 3 as a freshman, compared to just 21% for Scoot last season).

All I'm saying is that Ja had to prove he was an average (to slightly above average) shooter from 3 first, before people were calling him a top 2 pick.

However, with Scoot people I guess are just jumping to conclusions and just assuming he will improve his shooting, or just forgiving his poor shooting because of the level of comp and how young he is.

I don't care if he was 14 years old. He needs to prove he can shoot THEN he can be a top 2 pick in the draft IMO.

Scoot is 6'2". These are the guys 6'2" or under, drafted in recent memory in the top 5:

Trae Young - shot 36% from 3
Darius Garland - 47.8% from 3. Yes, small sample size of only 5 games but also shot 4/7 at Nike Hoop Summit and shooting was a known strength for him.

If we expand it to PGs 6'4" or under, we also get:
Ja Morant 36.3%
Jalen Suggs 33.7%
Markelle Fultz 41.3%

The lowest is Suggs at 33.7%, but he is also 6'4", 2" taller than Scoot. And Suggs went #5 in the draft - not top 2.

FWIW I think that a lot of people had Ja lottery after his first season, even if it wasn't consensus. But you are right that maybe people should be more concerned about his shooting. FWIW I'm not, I think he's the freakiest point guard athlete since the Rose/Westbrook draft. Neither of them could shoot early in their careers (Westbrook's midrange game was pretty decent for a while) but they were devastatingly effective players in their prime. I think Scoot's upper end is something like that, and his lower end is something like Fox. We have enough examples of ball-dominant guards that can't shoot but are good anyway, that I'm not super nervous about it even if he doesn't hit his upper end outcome.

Well yeah but I think the game has changed quite a bit since Westbrook and Rose were at their peak (rose won MVP in 2011, Westbrook won MVP in 2017). It's 5 yrs later now, it's a very different league. In today's game, neither Rose nor Westbrook is nearly as valuable. And that's not just because they are older. It's largely because in today's game, it's a must for your lead guard to be able to shoot the ball at least 34%.

Fox appears to be the best comp at this point for Scoot. Even if Scoot ends up being a slightly better, more athletic/explosive version of Fox, I'm not sure if that is a top 3 draft pick - unless he can get that 3 pt % higher this season. If he can do it, great - I'll move him up. But until then, I don't think there's anything wrong with ranking Scoot in like the 4-8 range for now.

And keep in mind, Fox has been in the league 5 years now and his teams have been bad all 5 years. Not saying it is all his fault obviously, but....

[babyjax13]

So Amen Thompson's shooting is pretty rough. That's going to mean everything for his development. He can get space whenever he wants, but he's going to need a functional release, like TMac developed.

Both of the Thompson twins are embarrassing shooters.

[Hal14]

So Amen Thompson's shooting is pretty rough. That's going to mean everything for his development. He can get space whenever he wants, but he's going to need a functional release, like TMac developed.

His shot looks to be improved:

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[clyde21]

Thompson twins started to get overrated lately

also am I the only one that likes Ausar better than Amen?

[Hal14]

Thompson twins started to get overrated lately

also am I the only one that likes Ausar better than Amen?

It's debatable IMO.

Shooting-wise, they seem about even. Amen seems better at ball handling, seeing the floor, play making - maybe a tiny bit quicker but Ausar might be a tiny bit stronger physically. Ausar also the better shot blocker.

Both freak athletes but Amen maybe a tiny bit freakier.

Gun to my head, I'll take Amen for now but it's very close IMO. I'm sure it'll be more clear where they should both go by the time we get to draft night.

[Catchall]

Thompson twins started to get overrated lately

also am I the only one that likes Ausar better than Amen?

If neither is going to be a reliable shooter, give me the one who is a better creator and playmaker off the dribble.

[clyde21]

im not convinced Amen is a better creator at this point than Ausar, will have to see more to be convinced.

[Hal14]

anyone know why cason wallace isn't listed here?

https://ukathletics.com/sports/mbball/roster/

[babyjax13]

im not convinced Amen is a better creator at this point than Ausar, will have to see more to be convinced.

I thought he showed quite a bit more vision, but they are both really raw. I've got them quite a bit higher on my big Board which is "plausible upside" but if I changed it to likely they'd fall a lot.

[PhilBlackson]

I REALLY don’t like that the Thompson Twins are going to OTE for their own development, does nothing at all to help them. It’s basically an overglorified pickup game, with no real defence and won’t be pushing them to develop their jumpers or comprehension of various defensive schemes.

They’ll need to land places with great developmental staffs especially Ausar since he’s a really good athlete but not spectacular like Amen who should still be able to take advantage of that off the dribble. There’s not many teams aside from the Spurs that are well known for their ability to develop players and given all the guards they already have im doubtful SAS would even pick either if available so I’m not sure what to make of their ceilings as players. But IF developed correctly Amen could be the one to push into conversation for one of the best in this draft class, he’s just too much of a physical specimen to not put ahead of Ausar who’s pretty good but has nothing truly elite about him like Amen’s athleticism.

[crows2]

Not many teams aside from the Spurs known for development? Did you stop watching the NBA ten years ago?

[TheBunk]

The Raptors, for one, have eclipsed the Spurs as a player development destination.

[Hal14]

Scoot is probably closer to 6'3 than 6'2, and your entire argument is based on some weird and arbitrary cut off points...and yea Ja wasn't seen as a top 2 pick before his class because, again, he was a relatively unknown prospect out of HS who played in OVC in college.

your comps still don't work

Scoot is shooting from NBA 3pt line

Ja and the other college guys are shooting from college 3 pt line

Scoot is playing against grown ass men and former NBA players

Ja wasn't

Scoot has shown good form/mechanics/shot versatility and hits almost 80% of his FTs, not really worried about his shot at this point enough to to drop him down my big board.

Scoot is listed at 6'2"

https://gleague.nba.com/player/scoot-henderson/

While you make some great excuses for Scoot's poor 3 PT% last year, nothing that you said tells me that he will shoot any better this season (or in the NBA). Maybe he will improve, maybe he won't. We don't know yet. There's no guarantee.

There's no correlation (at least not i'm aware of) of 3 PT% in g-league = x, so therefore their 3 PT% in the NBA will be y.

NBA teams are still going to want to see that % go up before picking him so high.

The good news is, we have an entire season that will be played before the draft. If he's able to bring that 3 PT% up, then great, NBA teams will feel more comfortable taking him with a high draft pick (top 3 pick comes with A LOT of risk for NBA teams, especially taking a PG that high...especially a PG who's only 6'2".

That's great that you think Scoot's mechanics are good and FT% is good. So maybe he goes in the lottery instead of late 1st round. I just think an NBA GM would want to see actual production, actual proof that he can hit 3's in a game before taking him in the top 3 - rather than rolling the dice on future improvement. That type of roll of the dice is something GM's typically do a little bit later in the draft - outside of the top 3-5 picks.

Also, this article says that high FT% doesn't necessarily correlate to improved 3 PT% in the future:
https://theboxandone.substack.com/p/is-free-throw-success-an-indication