2021 NBA Draft Thread

Post #441 » by **Dadouv47** » Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:52 am

ok give me 1-5 or 8 and 18...just roll those ****ing ping pong balls already.

Really wished we traded that pick swap because the variance is way too high. We rely on luck way too much is such an important draft for us.

Devilanche · Post #442 » by **Devilanche** » Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:13 pm

That pick swap was obtained when both Miami and Houston was considered a playoff team (ie marginal value) .

After harden was traded , what exactly were you willing to trade it for when it was clear that Houston was going to tank away

jake_swivel · Post #443 » by **jake_swivel** » Mon Jun 21, 2021 4:26 pm

Dadouv47 wrote:Really wished we traded that pick swap because the variance is way too high. We rely on luck way too much is such an important draft for us.

The variance is 5-18. And there’s basically a 50% chance for either one. Value-wise, that would probably be worth the 10-14 pick.

Would you trade the swap for those picks today? I wouldn’t, but I flipped a coin for $250 one time after the casino’s poker room closed.

Post #444 » by **Dadouv47** » Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:04 pm

jake_swivel wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:Really wished we traded that pick swap because the variance is way too high. We rely on luck way too much is such an important draft for us.

The variance is 5-18. And there’s basically a 50% chance for either one. Value-wise, that would probably be worth the 10-14 pick.

Would you trade the swap for those picks today? I wouldn’t, but I flipped a coin for $250 one time after the casino’s poker room closed.

Hell no. You rather get one top 5 pick over 2-3 top 10-14 pick. You can easily have a top 10-14 pick every single year... it's more difficult to pick the 5th best player in a stacked draft. I like gambling but this isn't a poker/casino coin flip that u can win some days and lose on others, it's basically a one time gamble with impacts on your own pick odds (and development on your team).

jake_swivel · Post #445 » by **jake_swivel** » Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:33 pm

jake_swivel wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:The variance is 5-18. And there’s basically a 50% chance for either one. Value-wise, that would probably be worth the 10-14 pick.

Would you trade the swap for those picks today? I wouldn’t, but I flipped a coin for $250 one time after the casino’s poker room closed.

Hell no. You rather get one top 5 pick over 2 top 10-14 pick.

Clearly, which is why trading it is difficult. No GM is going to trade their 7 or 8 pick for the under 50% chance to move to 5 with the downside of moving to 18. Try answering to your fan base when you don’t get it. What would your hypothetical trade have looked like? It’s just a really strange asset to value.

Post #446 » by **Dadouv47** » Mon Jun 21, 2021 5:42 pm

jake_swivel wrote:
jake_swivel wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:The variance is 5-18. And there’s basically a 50% chance for either one. Value-wise, that would probably be worth the 10-14 pick.

Would you trade the swap for those picks today? I wouldn’t, but I flipped a coin for $250 one time after the casino’s poker room closed.

Hell no. You rather get one top 5 pick over 2 top 10-14 pick.

Clearly, which is why trading it is difficult. No GM is going to trade their 7 or 8 pick for the under 50% chance to move to 5 with the downside of moving to 18. Try answering to your fan base when you don’t get it. What would your hypothetical trade have looked like? It’s just a really strange asset to value.

Oh, I agree. This is a very weird asset to value. I have no idea what 48% chances of Kuminga is worth. Not enough for Wood and we are too early in the rebuild. Not much else Houston could or would offer us.

Post #447 » by **Dadouv47** » Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:33 pm

Read on Twitter

/photo/1

Damn odds are lower than 48% with Olajuwon representing the Rockets.

Nazr is trouble for us

Post #448 » by **ThunderBolt** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:36 pm

I'm looking forward to no longer going to tankathon and have disappointing results each time I do a sim lottery.

Post #449 » by **Dadouv47** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:04 pm

I really love the fact that we are rebuilding but this lottery luck thing is messed up...I hate it so much.

thedoppelganger · Post #450 » by **thedoppelganger** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:05 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:I'm looking forward to no longer going to tankathon and have disappointing results each time I do a sim lottery.

Most nervous I've been about the Thunder since 2016, just ready to rip the bandaid off.

cjmcallist · Post #451 » by **cjmcallist** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:16 pm

Dadouv47 wrote:I really love the fact that we are rebuilding but this lottery luck thing is messed up...I hate it so much.

I'm torn. Would you rather just have the 4th pick? Or do you like having a shot at #1?

I go back and forth...

Post #452 » by **Dadouv47** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:24 pm

thedoppelganger wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:I'm looking forward to no longer going to tankathon and have disappointing results each time I do a sim lottery.

Most nervous I've been about the Thunder since 2016, just ready to rip the bandaid off.

and the end was quite ugly in 2016

Post #453 » by **Dadouv47** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:25 pm

cjmcallist wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:I really love the fact that we are rebuilding but this lottery luck thing is messed up...I hate it so much.

I'm torn. Would you rather just have the 4th pick? Or do you like having a shot at #1?

I go back and forth...

4 because we have enough assets to move up to 2 if we want.

Overall I think you have great odds to draft a future star with the 4th pick, not so much with 7th pick.

Post #454 » by **ThunderBolt** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:40 pm

cjmcallist wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:I really love the fact that we are rebuilding but this lottery luck thing is messed up...I hate it so much.

I'm torn. Would you rather just have the 4th pick? Or do you like having a shot at #1?

I go back and forth...

Ask me that again in 9 hours.

Dn4sty · Post #455 » by **Dn4sty** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 5:43 pm

Dadouv47 wrote:ok give me 1-5 or 8 and 18...just roll those ****ing ping pong balls already.

Really wished we traded that pick swap because the variance is way too high. We rely on luck way too much is such an important draft for us.

7 and 18 is worst case scenario. If the Thunder land at 8, then they will also get 5 from Houston.

thedoppelganger · Post #456 » by **thedoppelganger** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:05 pm

Read on Twitter

Combine measurements are up. Notable thing no one can believe at the moment - Sharife Cooper is 6'5" in shoes?! Looks under 6'0 for sure on film

Patches Perry · Post #457 » by **Patches Perry** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:26 pm

Dn4sty wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:ok give me 1-5 or 8 and 18...just roll those ****ing ping pong balls already.

Really wished we traded that pick swap because the variance is way too high. We rely on luck way too much is such an important draft for us.

7 and 18 is worst case scenario. If the Thunder land at 8, then they will also get 5 from Houston.

What's the math here? I understand if OKC is 8th, that bumps Chicago into the top 4 assuming things go chalk before that. What's the additional action that keeps Houston from the top 4 if OKC is 8th?

Dn4sty · Post #458 » by **Dn4sty** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:32 pm

Patches Perry wrote:
Dn4sty wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:ok give me 1-5 or 8 and 18...just roll those ****ing ping pong balls already.

Really wished we traded that pick swap because the variance is way too high. We rely on luck way too much is such an important draft for us.

7 and 18 is worst case scenario. If the Thunder land at 8, then they will also get 5 from Houston.

What's the math here? I understand if OKC is 8th, that bumps Chicago into the top 4 assuming things go chalk before that. What's the additional action that keeps Houston from the top 4 if OKC is 8th?

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Post #459 » by **Dadouv47** » Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:00 am

30+ minutes before being salty as ****

Post #460 » by **Dadouv47** » Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:51 am

**** this...so unlucky