Raps in 4 wrote:
Vladdy had a 166 wRC+ in 2021 and 132 in 2022. That's one elite season, and one very good hitting season. He's well off that mark this year. Absolutely nothing in his hitting profile suggested that he should decline as much as he did this year.
Kirk was at 129 last year in 541 PAs. It could have been an outlier season, but the peripherals didn't suggest that.
They're also both young so productive seasons are more likely to be indicative of "breaking out" than to be outliers.
My point wasn't really about whether it was obvious at the time or not, just that with thr benefit of hindsight it absolutely should be. And the idea of a breakout isn't that players will then continue to breakout but that they will either maintain it with a superior work ethic or see a decline of some sort from there. Unless the argument was that Vlad's 2021 season was the true breakout rather than the rest of his games, or Kirk's 9 games in 2020 were the same, then we had a good idea what to expect.
The reality is that people were actually expecting further improvement beyond what Kirk and Vlad showed in 2022 rather than a bit of a pullback from there. It's extremely rare to see that kind of thing, particularly from guys who obviously struggle with conditioning. Bo isn't breaking out further this season; he's just maintaining.
Also, I feel like Kirk does have a bit more defense than Vlad here because he brings a lot more defensive value. His defense this year has been more valuable than ever and that offsets his hitting in my view. He looks like a similar level talent to Jansen, though slightly worse overall. That's still a good player that any team would want on the roster. Just not a star. Vlad is the guy who I worry about. What he's doing this season is replaceable. And even if he surprises and breaks out we're talking a couple seasons before his decline likely hits as he isn't going to maintain his conditioning for it - that's just not who he is.