Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[Severn Hoos]

BTW, with the Wes Johnson/overage prospect discussion, I can't get past the idea that GMs should be very wary of guys with "breakout" seasons as Junior/Seniors, especially if they were lightly recruited out of HS and/or had mediocre Freshman/Sophomore seasons. And it seems especially true of frontcourt players (no, I won't bash my primary target, although I fear he fits the mold). Consider the following:

Jordan Hill
Derrick Williams
Wes Johnson
Ekpe Udoh
Hasheem Thabeet (although his Soph. year was pretty good, so his Junior year was less of a "breakout")
Hilton Armstrong
Earl Clark (last night notwithstanding, although his college career was similar to Thabeet)
Joe Alexander

All Lotto picks, all Juniors or Seniors, none of whom made any significant impact as Freshman - and most had minimal impacts as Sophomores too. And all disappointments in the NBA. While there at least a few similar non-lotto guys from Hibbert to Haywood to Granger who have been solid players, especially given the lower expectations.

I understand all about small sample sizes, confirmation bias, analysis by anecdote, and all the rest. The problem is, I am struggle to find many (or any) counterexamples. OK, I think Googs would be one, but that was a little while ago. So until convinced otherwise, I will continue to be wary of guys who do little against their own class, then rise to the top after the original blue-chippers from their class have gone on to the NBA.

[pancakes3]

The best guard counter examples I can think of would be Vasquez and Lin. The best big men examples would be a sophomore Griffin and a 4-year David Lee but your point is well taken.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Who is this Carl White kid from Florida State? He has absolutely dominated Charles Mitchell and Alex Len in the second half. Kid looks like a Kenneth Faried clone to me.

He had a good 6 minute stretch, but I can't say I was impressed. Maryland just played horribly. They've got no point guard and nobody who can create when the offense goes stale. Wells looks he's been on a doughnuts and french fries diet at the Maryland dining hall.

Thanks for that, Earth2Ted. Bennett's definitely top 10. He's only 6'7 in shoes, but he's a legit PF with his length and power. I guess I don't put him in the top 7 because his game reminds me of Derrick Williams' - Even though he's built like a bull, his style seems more finesse than power.

Poythruss is another big-time talent searching for an identity. Is he a less selfish slightly shorter version of Terrence Jones? Actually he physically looks just like another former KY player - Jamal Mashburn. I think he'd really benefit from a second college season to develop perimeter skills, but that doesn't happen with KY players.

CCJ, yes Burke has good perimeter players around him (I especially like Robinson), but he is in complete control of the MIchigan offense and easily the main reason they are undefeated and perhaps the best team in the country. Comparing him to Collison tells me you haven't watched Michigan. because I know you're a better judge of talent than that. He's better than Collison in every facet of the game - and much stronger.

You're on point and thanks, Ruz.

[Dr Positivity]

BTW, with the Wes Johnson/overage prospect discussion, I can't get past the idea that GMs should be very wary of guys with "breakout" seasons as Junior/Seniors, especially if they were lightly recruited out of HS and/or had mediocre Freshman/Sophomore seasons. And it seems especially true of frontcourt players (no, I won't bash my primary target, although I fear he fits the mold). Consider the following:

Jordan Hill
Derrick Williams
Wes Johnson
Ekpe Udoh
Hasheem Thabeet (although his Soph. year was pretty good, so his Junior year was less of a "breakout")
Hilton Armstrong
Earl Clark (last night notwithstanding, although his college career was similar to Thabeet)
Joe Alexander

All Lotto picks, all Juniors or Seniors, none of whom made any significant impact as Freshman - and most had minimal impacts as Sophomores too. And all disappointments in the NBA. While there at least a few similar non-lotto guys from Hibbert to Haywood to Granger who have been solid players, especially given the lower expectations.

I understand all about small sample sizes, confirmation bias, analysis by anecdote, and all the rest. The problem is, I am struggle to find many (or any) counterexamples. OK, I think Googs would be one, but that was a little while ago. So until convinced otherwise, I will continue to be wary of guys who do little against their own class, then rise to the top after the original blue-chippers from their class have gone on to the NBA.

Might as well add Thomas Robinson to that list already

Mason Plumlee is on the shortlist for players who could be fill "junior/senior breakout" too high lotto pick for me. I like Plumlee's energy level but not his offense. I think he's a backup PF who grabs rebounds and occasionally gets tip-in points, in the pros

[nate33]

I agree that it usually makes sense to avoid the senior "breakout players" if they move up to the high lotto. On the other hand, if they were pretty good as juniors, modestly improved as seniors, but slipped in the draft rankings simply because they were considered too old by the so-called experts, then those are the guys you want to snag with a late 1st or high 2nd round pick. I'm talking about guys like David Lee, Jared Dudley, Danny Green, Dante Cunningham, Landry Fields and Trevor Booker

[Ruzious]

Right, it's players that dramatically improve after age 21 that were never particularly highly regarded before that you should automatically stick a red flag on.

[Severn Hoos]

Yep, I think we're all saying the same thing here. Watch out for older college players having breakout seasons after their HS classmate blue chippers have already moved on - IF you are expecting to get a star (i.e., Lotto picks). OTOH, if you want a ready-from-day-one, mature contributor to be a rotation guy, look for those older college guys. And yes, I still think Withey will be a nice pick in the 20s, a la Brendan Haywood.

cakes - good call on Lee, I'd forgotten about him, although his college track was more like nate described, with somewhat of a regression as a Senior (except for rebounding). Griffin averaged almost 15 & 10 as a Freshman in the Big 12, so I think he was already a star in the making right out of the gate. And for some reason, it seems to happen more often with big men and SFs more than with Guards - although Gilbert Arenas wants you to think he was an afterthought all the way from High School through his first two years in the NBA...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yep, I think we're all saying the same thing here. Watch out for older college players having breakout seasons after their HS classmate blue chippers have already moved on - IF you are expecting to get a star (i.e., Lotto picks). OTOH, if you want a ready-from-day-one, mature contributor to be a rotation guy, look for those older college guys. And yes, I still think Withey will be a nice pick in the 20s, a la Brendan Haywood.

cakes - good call on Lee, I'd forgotten about him, although his college track was more like nate described, with somewhat of a regression as a Senior (except for rebounding). Griffin averaged almost 15 & 10 as a Freshman in the Big 12, so I think he was already a star in the making right out of the gate. And for some reason, it seems to happen more often with big men and SFs more than with Guards - although Gilbert Arenas wants you to think he was an afterthought all the way from High School through his first two years in the NBA...

Justin Harper is another who comes to mind as a senior year-only breakout player who did not pan out. He had a great senior year and an impressive NCAA run, yet did absolutely nothing as a member of the Orlando Magic. I thought he'd be pretty good. (I think he's much like Luke Babbit--potentially a good shooter if players around him can get him open. So far, Harper's not done as well as Babbitt, however, in the D League).

Marshon Brooks seemed to be off to a good start the first half of his rookie season. Now, I'd say he may also prove to be a flash in the pan. … I think he can play a little but who knows how his career will progress. He had an absolutely monstrously good senior year at Seton Hall.

This season, Erick Green is completely blowing up as a senior at Virginia Tech. I am very confident he is no fluke and will make it to the NBA and stick on some team's roster. If anything, Erick Green is underrated. He would go into the category of pretty good before his senior season. He's great right now.

Green and McDermott, and guys like Nate Woltjers are why I say the 2013 draft is a tremendous draft. I think they are good players and they're not even among the elite of this draft.

[Severn Hoos]

CCJ, you remind me of another "type" - the guy who got overlooked by the big schools, went to a smaller school and was a big-time contributor from day 1 (often for a full 4 years). And so many of them are your favorites: Millsap, Fareid, Carl Landry, Kevin Martin, George Hill - and, I hope, Doug McDermott. They're far from a sure thing (lots of similar profile players did not stick), and may or may not ever make an All-Star game, but I'd much rather have those guys in the 20s and 30s than the previous list in the Lotto.

[REDardWIZskin]

I have a feeling we'll be picking 4th or 5th this yr. That said this is a draft i really don't mind since there is really no consensus top player. I'm developing a man crush on Anthony Bennett. He's a strong stretch 4 with orangutan arms to make up for his height (only 6'7 in shoes). He's shooting 40% from 3 and is a good rebounder/finisher around the rim.

[Ruzious]

I would say that Erick Green falls dangerously close to the red flag category. While he's not really over-aged for a senior, he will be 22 before the draft. And he was just an okay player before his senior season - never regarded as anything more than a long-shot tweener prospect, as far as I can tell. It really depends on what your expectations are for him. If you're looking at him as a mid-2nd round target who could battle for a rotation spot a few years down the line, then yes. But if you're looking at him as someone in the top 25 to target as a future starter, I'd say no.

Btw, Cauley-Stein of Kentucky is going to be a top 10 pick. He's going to be too tempting for someone to pass up, and he's starting to show the semblance of skills. He had his 2nd 4 assist game and no to's last night. It's not much, but when you're a legit athletic and well put together 7 footer and put up the blocks/steals combo that he's doing as a frosh (similar to Noel), people notice and salivate. And KY is actually starting him with Noel now - and Poythress out of position at the 3 - an enormously talented, huge, and disjointed 1 and done front court. And they're playing Goodwin (another super-talent) sometimes at the point - where he looks out of place. Watching them - there's no on-court leadership.

[tontoz]

Btw, Cauley-Stein of Kentucky is going to be a top 10 pick. He's going to be too tempting for someone to pass up, and he's starting to show the semblance of skills. He had his 2nd 4 assist game and no to's last night. It's not much, but when you're a legit athletic and well put together 7 footer and put up the blocks/steals combo that he's doing as a frosh (similar to Noel), people notice and salivate. And KY is actually starting him with Noel now - and Poythress out of position at the 3 - an enormously talented, huge, and disjointed 1 and done front court. And they're playing Goodwin (another super-talent) sometimes at the point - where he looks out of place. Watching them - there's no on-court leadership.

I was wondering about him. I read yesterday that he really hasn't played much basketball and was a receiver on his HS football team.

I definitely plan on taping a few of their games to check them all out.

[mhd]

Right now Shabaaz has become by fav prospect. He fits exactly what we need as a player whose mentality is to score. His supposed weakness in high school was shooting, and you see how much he's improved. You can tell he's got a work ethic. He fits a glaring hole at SF.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Muhammed, on the little video I have seen of him, passes the Dominique Wilkins/Clyde Drexler eye test. He is going to score a ton of points in the NBA. The Wizards missed out on trading for James Harden. Shabazz seems to be the same caliber player to me.

Talk about having good DNA for sports, from wiki:

His father, Ron Holmes was a four-year letterman on the USC Trojans basketball team from 1981–1985 and his mother, Faye Muhammad was a basketball and track athlete at Long Beach State, where she is a member of the hall of fame.[17] His older sister, Asia Muhammad, is a professional tennis player.[18] His uncle, Stephone Paige, played nine seasons with the NFL’s Kansas City Chiefs and one with the Minnesota Vikings, where he had 377 career receptions.[19]
[edit]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shabazz_Muhammad

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

In the all-confusing category, last season there were two NCAA prospects named Tony Mitchell. The better prospect is at N. Texas St. and the other finished at Alabama and was not drafted. That was slightly confusing to me last season. But that was nothing ...

I got totally thrown off by the box score following Maryland's defeat the other night. Florida State has a freshman G from Alaska named Devin Bookert.

Trevor Booker's younger brother, Devin Booker, plays for Clemson. I kept looking at Bookert on Florida State and thought, "What is going on?"

But check this out: There is a 5-star HS recruit from Mississippi who is also named Devin Booker. Duke along with Michigan and Florida and everybody else is recruiting the younger Devin Booker.

There will be another Devin Booker in NCAA basketball next season, and he will be matched against Devin Bookert when their teams meet.

[Ruzious]

Lol, that kinda reminds me of a couple years ago when I saw on odd name on the Knicks preseason roster - Marcus Cousin - and he was a center listed at roughly the same size as DeMarcus Cousins. What the...

Tontoz, please post your thoughts after watching KY a couple of times. Because he has that very limited basketball background, it's hard to picture what kind of game Cauley-Stein's going to have in the NBA.

[Knighthonor]

Right now Shabaaz has become by fav prospect. He fits exactly what we need as a player whose mentality is to score. His supposed weakness in high school was shooting, and you see how much he's improved. You can tell he's got a work ethic. He fits a glaring hole at SF.

But Shabaaz, how would he fit into DC? he a SG like Beal right. But how good is he at driving?
He sound like another crawford at the moment. Does Washington need another SG like that when they have Beal and Crawford already?

[dangermouse]

He's long enough and will be solid enough to play a fair chunk of minutes at SF in the NBA. And driving is one of his strengths.

He is a clone of Jerry Stackhouse and James Harden, with crazy length.

Wall/Beal/Shabazz is a nice, balanced back court. Passing, shooting and scoring ability in 3 positions, some stronger than others.

All 3 have playmaking ability to some degree, all 3 are good defenders. I think it could really work and would probably be the most exciting young threesome in the league.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Lol, that kinda reminds me of a couple years ago when I saw on odd name on the Knicks preseason roster - Marcus Cousin - and he was a center listed at roughly the same size as DeMarcus Cousins. What the...

Tontoz, please post your thoughts after watching KY a couple of times. Because he has that very limited basketball background, it's hard to picture what kind of game Cauley-Stein's going to have in the NBA.

Also, Chris Roberts and Chris Douglas Roberts were on the same D-League team this season.

[gambitx777]

well we will just have to wait and see what he measures in at during the combine and team work outs. Besides a lot of teams are using small line ups now any way so it wont hurt us to much to go with a smaller 3.