2018 Draft Thread #6

[GimmeDat]

How many people are going to attack him no matter how well he plays? He started off slow, he got in to a great rhythm before the injury and had some big games, now he's been out for weeks, just returned and the haters are using it as an excuse to rip in to him again.

I'm not attacking him, I'm trying to respond to complete absurdity like this:

Grant is in no way better than Dunn. He's a slightly better shooter, which is Dunn's weakness. That's it. Grant's a mediocre backup, it's amazing how skewed some of the views on our PG's are.

Grant has the higher ORPM. Higher OBPM. Higher PER. Higher WS/48. Higher ORTG. Higher TS%. Higher AST/TO ratio. Higher 2P FG%. Higher 3P FG%. Higher FT%. Higher FTA/36.

Kris Dunn is worse in almost every single offensive statistic. Yet he's some future building block and Grant is just some bum? Why?

For one, it's completely ignoring volume. It's easy to have nice efficiency metrics when you're averaging 13 points per 36. He's incapable of any advanced shot making and so only takes open shots/drives. That can be seen as a positive if you're a 2nd unit player and surrounded by superior options, but as a starting PG, it's just a non-starter.

Dunn was putting it together before the injury with far more advanced creation for himself and others. He was playing at a level Grant will never reach in his career. Which segues in to the ongoing debate that's been going on all season here about Grant vs Dunn as a facilitator. Raw assist totals be damned, anyone with any feel for the game of basketball can see how Grant kills offensive sets with his slow decision making, lack of vision, lack of creation ability, stagnant dribbling etc.

The difference in the quality of this teams play once he got injured was night and day, it should speak for itself.

[Leslie Forman]

Dunn was putting it together before the injury with far more advanced creation for himself and others. He was playing at a level Grant will never reach in his career. Which segues in to the ongoing debate that's been going on all season here about Grant vs Dunn as a facilitator. Raw assist totals be damned, anyone with any feel for the game of basketball can see how Grant kills offensive sets with his slow decision making, lack of vision, lack of creation ability, stagnant dribbling etc.

The difference in the quality of this teams play once he got injured was night and day, it should speak for itself.

There is literally no evidence of this. Literally. None. The players' individual numbers don't support it. The team's on/off numbers don't support it. Your basis of evidence is just some tingling in your pants.

[Hangtime84]

Dunn was putting it together before the injury with far more advanced creation for himself and others. He was playing at a level Grant will never reach in his career. Which segues in to the ongoing debate that's been going on all season here about Grant vs Dunn as a facilitator. Raw assist totals be damned, anyone with any feel for the game of basketball can see how Grant kills offensive sets with his slow decision making, lack of vision, lack of creation ability, stagnant dribbling etc.

The difference in the quality of this teams play once he got injured was night and day, it should speak for itself.

There is literally no evidence of this. Literally. None. The players' individual numbers don't support it. The team's on/off numbers don't support it. Your basis of evidence is just some tingling in your pants.

Like we said basketball sense clearly you haven't been watching games. Since you made such a strong claim about seeing a guys playstyle.

Obviously, you miss the play during Bobby 38 point game where Dunn lead the defense to collapse and passed it for an easy ast.

Or the multiple times Dunn as let traffic clear just drop off a simple pass.

Even Lavine playmakes better than Grant.

[Red Larrivee]

Admittedly I've only seen him play a few times and not for awhile. Maybe I should watch some more recent games of his. Is the offensive potential there? If so, why is he only taking 6 shots a game and playing 22mpg?

Jackson fouls a lot. Also, Michigan State is loaded with solid college players, so Jackson naturally isn't going to get many shots. The fact that he's their 5th leading scorer is scary for other teams.

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[Leslie Forman]

NBAdraft.net now has Jaren Jackson Jr. going #2 overall. I haven't been very high on him. I think he's very solid but I'm shocked by this projection. Someone tell me what I'm missing.

He is easily the least flawed prospect in the draft. Defense, offensive skillset, size, athleticism, intangibles - he is the closest thing to a prospect with no weaknesses in this draft.

I think we should all stop claiming he has no weaknesses. He has trouble staying on the floor bc he fouls so much. He is young and it doesn’t mean he can’t fix it, but it’s a legit issue.

I never said he has no weaknesses – he's just the closest thing to it in this draft.

And his foul rate is actually a bit lower than Embiid's and Towns's were in college even though he gets a good amount more blocks.

[sh0ck]

Dunn was putting it together before the injury with far more advanced creation for himself and others. He was playing at a level Grant will never reach in his career. Which segues in to the ongoing debate that's been going on all season here about Grant vs Dunn as a facilitator. Raw assist totals be damned, anyone with any feel for the game of basketball can see how Grant kills offensive sets with his slow decision making, lack of vision, lack of creation ability, stagnant dribbling etc.

The difference in the quality of this teams play once he got injured was night and day, it should speak for itself.

There is literally no evidence of this. Literally. None. The players' individual numbers don't support it. The team's on/off numbers don't support it. Your basis of evidence is just some tingling in your pants.

Like we said basketball sense clearly you haven't been watching games. Since you made such a strong claim about seeing a guys playstyle.

Obviously, you miss the play during Bobby 38 point game where Dunn lead the defense to collapse and passed it for an easy ast.

Or the multiple times Dunn as let traffic clear just drop off a simple pass.

Even Lavine playmakes better than Grant.

I don't think Grant is better than Dunn, but typically when someone brings out the "You haven't been watching" it means they can't back their assessment up with statistical analysis.

Grant has been ok (and much better as a backup). Dunn has a high ceiling, but also a lower floor. He makes plays that are actively bad. But also has the ability to take over games.

[Benedict Miller]

My Top 10 for now

1. Doncic
2. Ayton
3. Bagley
4. Jackson Jr.
5. Porter Jr.
6. Carter Jr.
7. Young
8. Bamba
9. Miles Bridges
10. Knox

[Thebullsgod1993]

No way we fall past 8th pick I think we end up at 5 or 6 hopefully higher.

[keobulls]

He is easily the least flawed prospect in the draft. Defense, offensive skillset, size, athleticism, intangibles - he is the closest thing to a prospect with no weaknesses in this draft.

I think we should all stop claiming he has no weaknesses. He has trouble staying on the floor bc he fouls so much. He is young and it doesn’t mean he can’t fix it, but it’s a legit issue.

I never said he has no weaknesses – he's just the closest thing to it in this draft.

And his foul rate is actually a bit lower than Embiid's and Towns's were in college even though he gets a good amount more blocks.

A lot of the fouls he gets called for he also won't get called for in the NBA. He plays very physically and covers for all of his teammates on defense. Most of the fouls I have seen him "commit" have been ticky tack or saving a layup because someone else blew an assignment. He is not fouling because of low IQ or lack of ability, so I highly doubt it will be a problem at the next level.

[DuckIII]

No way we fall past 8th pick I think we end up at 5 or 6 hopefully higher.

I don’t know man. It doesn’t help that the only team in the top 8 not trying to tank still can’t win a damn game.

[Hangtime84]

I don't think Grant is better than Dunn, but typically when someone brings out the "You haven't been watching" it means they can't back their assessment up with statistical analysis.

Grant has been ok (and much better as a backup). Dunn has a high ceiling, but also a lower floor. He makes plays that are actively bad. But also has the ability to take over games.

I use both but if someone cannot give clear memory recall of a players habits. Tells me someone is watching a analytics data sheet more than watching the actual basketball game.

I’m not team Dunn. It’s paying attention strong statements like “ zero evidence “ irks me a bit. I wasn’t team Niko either but realized he was pretty good player.

Anyways I’m all for getting a guy like Luka and trading Dunn away. We need a guy who can hit a 3 point shot.

Unless we run an offense where our 5 man can hit 3s like Embiid does.

[DanTown8587]

No way we fall past 8th pick I think we end up at 5 or 6 hopefully higher.

I don’t know man. It doesn’t help that the only team in the top 8 not trying to tank still can’t win a damn game.

Since they beat Atlanta and moved to 16-26, they are 3-15 but have played ZERO games in their last 18 against the 7 tankers.

In their final 22 games, they have 7 against the tankers. They'll fly out of this group.

[Moosegary]

The crazy part in the last 20 something games all these tanker teams play each other. The majority want to lose all these games and still see the core Markkanen, Levine, Dunn play well. It’s hard for both of those to occur. It seems like most are questioning whether Dunn is the future point guard of a playoff Bulls team. I think we need to wait until next year to make that decision. If Dunn plays the way he did in December and January 15 and 8, Markkanen goes for 16 and 8 and then Lavine averages 20, we will not improve the draft position we are currently in. It’s kind of crazy position to be in. I’m not suggesting anything - but as fans would we rather see the bulls play well led by the core and win or watch what we have seen after the all star break and hopefully improve our draft position.

[TheSuzerain]

I don't think Grant is better than Dunn, but typically when someone brings out the "You haven't been watching" it means they can't back their assessment up with statistical analysis.

Grant has been ok (and much better as a backup). Dunn has a high ceiling, but also a lower floor. He makes plays that are actively bad. But also has the ability to take over games.

I use both but if someone cannot give clear memory recall of a players habits. Tells me someone is watching a analytics data sheet more than watching the actual basketball game.

I’m not team Dunn. It’s paying attention strong statements like “ zero evidence “ irks me a bit. I wasn’t team Niko either but realized he was pretty good player.

Anyways I’m all for getting a guy like Luka and trading Dunn away. We need a guy who can hit a 3 point shot.

Unless we run an offense where our 5 man can hit 3s like Embiid does.

Unless you're are going to very tightly cling to the one game in 3 that Dunn is able to have a respectable to good TS%, there is just no evidence that Dunn will ever amount to much offensively.

There are mountains of evidence that show Dunn as a very bad starting PG at present. If it quacks like a duck. If it looks like a duck. If it smells like a duck...

Thinking Dunn should be the long term starting PG has become a pretty good litmus test for posters who have no **** idea what they are talking about.

[Dresden]

I don't think Grant is better than Dunn, but typically when someone brings out the "You haven't been watching" it means they can't back their assessment up with statistical analysis.

Grant has been ok (and much better as a backup). Dunn has a high ceiling, but also a lower floor. He makes plays that are actively bad. But also has the ability to take over games.

I use both but if someone cannot give clear memory recall of a players habits. Tells me someone is watching a analytics data sheet more than watching the actual basketball game.

I’m not team Dunn. It’s paying attention strong statements like “ zero evidence “ irks me a bit. I wasn’t team Niko either but realized he was pretty good player.

Anyways I’m all for getting a guy like Luka and trading Dunn away. We need a guy who can hit a 3 point shot.

Unless we run an offense where our 5 man can hit 3s like Embiid does.

Unless you're are going to very tightly cling to the one game in 3 that Dunn is able to have a respectable to good TS%, there is just no evidence that Dunn will ever amount to much offensively.

There are mountains of evidence that show Dunn as a very bad starting PG at present. If it quacks like a duck. If it looks like a duck. If it smells like a duck...

Thinking Dunn should be the long term starting PG has become a pretty good litmus test for posters who have no **** idea what they are talking about.

Gee, that's not a provocative statement at all, is it? Insulting the intelligence of people you're trying to have a discussion with is pretty immature.

So you say there is no evidence Dunn will ever amount to anything, IF you throw out the games where he produces evidence that he may amount to something. Ok.

[Axolotl]

Thinking Dunn should be the long term starting PG has become a pretty good litmus test for posters who have no **** idea what they are talking about.

I don't think Dunn should be our long term starting PG, but I do think the possibility still exists. For that to happen, he'd need to improve his handling and shooting.

I also think he will not be a starting PG in a deep playoff/contender team, but might well lead the 2nd unit in one.

A broken tanking season is not the best place to make evaluations. His stats are not good, but he has shown flashes and was developing in the right direction before he was injured.

[Jahensle]

Thinking Dunn should be the long term starting PG has become a pretty good litmus test for posters who have no **** idea what they are talking about.

I don't think Dunn should be our long term starting PG, but I do think the possibility still exists. For that to happen, he'd need to improve his handling and shooting.

I also think he will not be a starting PG in a deep playoff/contender team, but might well lead the 2nd unit in one.

A broken tanking season is not the best place to make evaluations. His stats are not good, but he has shown flashes and was developing in the right direction before he was injured.

I think Dunn would be best served as the third guard on a contending team. He can start for us at this point, however. Would love for us to pickup a PG prospect with the Pelicans pick.

[bigworld2017]

Current Odds Regarding The Draft Lottery From ESPN:
Lottery projections

2018 NBA Draft Position Odds
TEAM EXP. POS. NO. 1 (%) TOP 3 (%) TOP 5 (%) TOP 10 (%) LOTTERY (%)
PHX 3.2 21.6 57.9 93.8 >99.9 >99.9
SAC 3.9 15.4 44.3 75.7 >99.9 >99.9
ATL 4.1 14.4 42.1 72.4 >99.9 >99.9
BKN* 5.0 10.0 31.0 52.9 >99.9 >99.9
ORL 5.3 8.9 27.9 46.9 99.9 >99.9
MEM 5.3 8.7 27.4 46.2 99.9 >99.9
CHI 5.6 8.0 25.4 42.6 99.9 >99.9
DAL 5.8 7.2 23.2 38.3 99.8 >99.9
NYK 8.8 1.8 6.4 9.6 92.1 >99.9
LAL* 9.5 1.3 4.7 7.0 78.7 >99.9
CHA 11.6 0.7 2.6 3.8 11.9 89.4
DET* 11.8 0.7 2.4 3.6 10.3 85.9
UTA 16.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.5 46.5
LAC 16.2 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.6 47.7
MIA* 16.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 39.9
NOP* 17.3 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.2 37.3
DEN 17.4 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 33.0
Using ESPN's Basketball Power Index

[Red Larrivee]

Thinking Dunn should be the long term starting PG has become a pretty good litmus test for posters who have no **** idea what they are talking about.

I think completely dismissing that possibility is a better litmus test.

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[Ccwatercraft]

The crazy part in the last 20 something games all these tanker teams play each other. The majority want to lose all these games and still see the core Markkanen, Levine, Dunn play well. It’s hard for both of those to occur. It seems like most are questioning whether Dunn is the future point guard of a playoff Bulls team. I think we need to wait until next year to make that decision. If Dunn plays the way he did in December and January 15 and 8, Markkanen goes for 16 and 8 and then Lavine averages 20, we will not improve the draft position we are currently in. It’s kind of crazy position to be in. I’m not suggesting anything - but as fans would we rather see the bulls play well led by the core and win or watch what we have seen after the all star break and hopefully improve our draft position.

Yes it will be interesting to see how some of the tank teams come out of these games where somebody HAS to win, thank god we don't have hockey rules where they can tie or we'd probably see a bunch of those!

I briefly glanced at some of the team schedules for the various tankers and they DO have a lot of games against each other so it will be very interesting to see who out-tanks each other in that battle.

The bulls alone also have several important games coming up, this week especially, but they are evenly scattered after that right up until two games against the nets to finish, those two games might be critical.

I can only hope that we can lose as many as possible w/o totally frustrating the hell out of our players and giving them bad attitudes heading into the offseason.

ps, dam Pelicans, we really need them to go on a cold streak in march and lose 3-4 in a row with the Clips and Jazz playing well, it would make a big difference, actually big is an understatement, it could make a HUGE difference.