Rui Hachimura 2.0

[9 and 20]

Rui looks like he's playing in slow motion when he's doing anything other than trying to score. I don't know if that is effort or instinct or coaching or what. Doesn't look he tries super hard to box out or rebound.

Clearly he put in work to improve his shooting. If he can improve the rest of his game as much as he improved his shooting, he'd be an all star. Even if he doesn't improve, he can stick around the league with his 3's. Dennis Scott always looked like he came to the game straight from the Sizzler buffet but he played for years.

[prime1time]

Once again I have to say that I am perplexed by the takes on this thread. Let's take a step back and analyze this team. We have Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis. How many shot attempts will they get between them? RIght now our greatest need is for a pg. Even a solid starting pg is likely going to average at least 15 ppg, and have the ball in his hands often. So what do the Wizards need from the other 2 starters/main roll players on the floor? Spacing, defense and the ability to effectively score while the main two guys are out.

So 2 out of the 3 thrings that non-stars need to provide Hachimura provides, exceptionally well. Spacing and the ability to effectively score. After reading post after post in this thread, I must conclude that fans in this thread are not genuinely committed to building a championship team. To me, Rui seems like the ideal 6th man off the bench. And, seeing how he's our best 3-point shooter, if he started he would space the floor for Beal and Porzingis.

If the goal is to compare Hachimura in a vacuum, to other individual players, and judge "who is better" then yes, some posters would have a point. He's an average to the below-average rebounder. He's an average to below-average defender. But this kind of analysis is actually useless because it ignores what a roster built around Beal and Porzingis actually needs. I've already said that if there's a star to be had, Rui should be on the trade block. So let's remove that from the conversation.

Here's the challenge for all the people who say we shouldn't keep Hachimura or that he sucks. Find me another player in the league, that we could reasonably get, that would have a better impact on this team than Rui. 4 in the league that we could reasonably sign if we move on from Rui.

[payitforward]

Once again I have to say that I am perplexed by the takes on this thread. Let's take a step back and analyze this team. We have Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis. How many shot attempts will they get between them? RIght now our greatest need is for a pg. Even a solid starting pg is likely going to average at least 15 ppg, and have the ball in his hands often. So what do the Wizards need from the other 2 starters/main roll players on the floor? Spacing, defense and the ability to effectively score while the main two guys are out.

So 2 out of the 3 thrings that non-stars need to provide Hachimura provides, exceptionally well. Spacing and the ability to effectively score. After reading post after post in this thread, I must conclude that fans in this thread are not genuinely committed to building a championship team. To me, Rui seems like the ideal 6th man off the bench. And, seeing how he's our best 3-point shooter, if he started he would space the floor for Beal and Porzingis.

If the goal is to compare Hachimura in a vacuum, to other individual players, and judge "who is better" then yes, some posters would have a point. He's an average to the below-average rebounder. He's an average to below-average defender. But this kind of analysis is actually useless because it ignores what a roster built around Beal and Porzingis actually needs. I've already said that if there's a star to be had, Rui should be on the trade block. So let's remove that from the conversation.

Here's the challenge for all the people who say we shouldn't keep Hachimura or that he sucks. Find me another player in the league, that we could reasonably get, that would have a better impact on this team than Rui. 4 in the league that we could reasonably sign if we move on from Rui.

Everyone has a right to have a favorite player, & Rui is yours. But, let's not get carried away!

For starters, no, Rui has certainly NOT demonstrated that he "provides, exceptionally well..., the ability to effectively score." Right now, he's just about average -- maybe a tiny bit better overall.

Per 40 minutes, he gives you @ 1.5 more points than average for a PF on @1.3 more possessions. That doesn't qualify as "exceptionally well."

I notice you don't say that he's shown he provides "exceptionally bad rebounding." -- "average to below-average," you call it. Actually it's a lot further from average in the wrong direction than his scoring is in the right direction!

What if I give you a guy who's played in about the same number of games this year as Rui & about the same number of minutes?
What if that guy shoots the 3 just about as well as Rui?
But he shoots the 2 a lot better than Rui?
What if he scores almost the same number of points as Rui per 36 minutes -- but at a significantly higher TS%?
What if he starts rather than coming off the bench? -- & presumably, therefore, faces starters rather than 2d string defenders?
What if he's also a far better rebounder than Rui?
What if he also gets significantly more assists, steals & blocks?

What if he & Rui were born less than a week apart?
What if he was picked in the same draft as Rui?
What if instead of going #9, like Rui, he went in the middle of R2?

Not hard to find that guy....
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=robyis01&p1yrfrom=2022&player_id1=hachiru01&p2yrfrom=2022&sum=0&request=1

[DCZards]

Poor Rui...I've never seen a Zards' player whose playing and #s have been more scrutinized, analyzed, criticized, fantasized and compared to both teammates and other NBA players. Never imagined he'd be such a polarizing figure on this board.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[pcbothwel]

Read on Twitter

Im closer to PIF and Nat on this one. Rui has been in the ~average starter range over the past few weeks, which all sounds well and good given his age and experience but thats with him shooting an astronomical 3pt%.
Fact is, he simply doesnt show the, for lack of a better word, BBIQ or awareness to do the little things.

Now, he is so naturally made for the NBA given his attributes (Strong, tall, long, skilled, soft touch, hard working), that it is probably worth one more summer + 25-30 games next year to see if he makes strides elsewhere... but if he doesnt make a leap then I shop him in a deadline deal.

We have to remember that contenders love players like Rui. Productive and can shoot in their 4th year. His contract is cheap and he is an RFA, so contenders get a solid rotational player for cheap and have the ability to retain him.

[payitforward]

1. He hasn't been in average starter range. He's shot the 3-ball well. Otherwise not much to point to (I think there was one good rebounding game).
2. He hasn't been "productive." He's shot the 3-ball well. Otherwise... see above.

[Ruzious]

Rui's not great, but he's certainly adequate. He can - and does - score in a lot of different ways at a solid rate - with both volume and efficiency - 51% from 2 and 45.4% form 3; it's his FT shooting that hasn't been good. He also doesn't turn the ball over much. He's obviously not a star at this point, but he is basically what I'd expect him to be. He's improved this season despite the off-court issues he had, and I expect he'll continue to improve. I'm not sure why some have a need to knock him.

[payitforward]

Rui's not great, but he's certainly adequate. He can - and does - score in a lot of different ways at a solid rate - with both volume and efficiency - 51% from 2 and 45.4% form 3; it's his FT shooting that hasn't been good. He also doesn't turn the ball over much. He's obviously not a star at this point, but he is basically what I'd expect him to be. He's improved this season despite the off-court issues he had, and I expect he'll continue to improve. I'm not sure why some have a need to knock him.

& I'm not sure why describing him objectively means anyone has "a need to knock him."

Rui has only improved this season in one respect -- the 3 ball. That's it. His 2pt.% went up a little last year, then this year it slid a little again. In a number of other areas, in fact, he is worse than he was as a rookie.

That's not knocking him. It's simply reporting facts.

Saying that 1 offensive board per 36 minutes is less good than 2 offensive boards per 36 minutes, or that .688 is a lower FT % than .829 are statements of the exact same nature as saying that shooting .454 on 3-point shots is a ton better than shooting it at .289.

Looking the facts straight in the face does not get in the way of assessing Rui or any player correctly; in fact, it's the only way to assess a player correctly.

&, we should be cognizant of the fact that Rui has played 4150 minutes in the NBA. He's 24. You can't treat him like a prospect. Yet, it's also true that this is no reason we should give up on Rui Hachimura.

It would be foolish to dismiss Rui, to think that he can't have much more potential to grow. He came late to the game. Maybe he'll be a late bloomer. We'll find out next season.

At the same time, none of this is a reason not to trade him if the right deal comes up.

[DCZards]

But why is it only Rui’s #s that get constantly nit picked? I don’t see the same level of scrutiny given to Deni and others.

[NatP4]

But why is it only Rui’s #s that get constantly nit picked? I don’t see the same level of scrutiny given to Deni and others.

Because his numbers are bad? What kind of question is this?

At age 21, Avdija averaged more assists, blocks, steals, and rebounds, than 21 year old Rui, and did it more efficiently.

Pick any advanced metric you want, they all say Rui is horrible and hurts his team when he is on the court. The only thing he has done well is make 3s at a high % for 20 something games. He’s 24 years old, there’s not going to be much improvement from here.

I agree with PC of course, give him the first half of next year to show you something still, it’s worth it, but then move him.

[DCZards]

But why is it only Rui’s #s that get constantly nit picked? I don’t see the same level of scrutiny given to Deni and others.

Because his numbers are bad? What kind of question is this?

At age 21, Avdija averaged more assists, blocks, steals, and rebounds, than 21 year old Rui, and did it more efficiently.

Pick any advanced metric you want, they all say Rui is horrible and hurts his team when he is on the court. The only thing he has done well is make 3s at a high % for 20 something games. He’s 24 years old, there’s not going to be much improvement from here.

I agree with PC of course, give him the first half of next year to show you something still, it’s worth it, but then move him.

You totally whiffed on the point I was making. But that’s cool.

[NatP4]

You have no point

[payitforward]

But why is it only Rui’s #s that get constantly nit picked? I don’t see the same level of scrutiny given to Deni and others.

"Nit picked" is judgmental language. His numbers get looked at objectively, or at least that's the intention: e.g. his 3 pt. % is terrific, so say it's terrific. If other numbers are terrible instead, or mediocre, then say they are terrible, or mediocre. That's not nit-picking.

Plus, if his numbers trend up, point it out. If other numbers trend down, point that out too. Again... not nit-picking.

The same for all players!

In Deni's case, the numbers are simply a fair amount better than Rui's. Raw numbers overall but even more when compared to the range of numbers of players at his position. Plus, Deni is three full years younger than Rui. Which matters for obvious reason.

Still, as I mentioned in an earlier post, Rui came late to the game. In general, it seems obvious that's not usually a good thing overall, but still... maybe he'll be a late bloomer. Next year will be a big year for him.

Edit: one other point -- Deni's numbers are a lot better this year than last year. Usually, if a guy improves a lot from season to season when he's young, it makes sense not to criticize him.

In Rui's case, the numbers have not gotten better from year to year -- with the sole exception of his 3-pt. %. That's gotten a lot better, & he should -- & does -- get kudos for that. A whole lot of other numbers have gotten worse instead of better. If they improve next year the way his 3pt shooting has improve... he'll be getting a ton of praise for it! From me.

[doclinkin]

My feeling on Rui is that the mystery value of his potential is higher than his current skill and boxscore effect. I tend to catch opposing teams' broadcast crews, and uniformly they are impressed with how Rui looks when he does something on the court. I get the sense that other front offices are similarly intrigued. The projections of who he is going to be are his biggest draw. This suggests that he may have more value in trade than his current output.

At some point that mystery value is overtaken by track record and history. Potential is commonly valued more highly than production, a guy MIGHT be any number of things in the future. Teams pay a premium for those endless possibilities. Seems to me this is one of the market inefficiencies that can be exploited in trading a talented player for a productive one, (plus a pick/better draft position etc).

I'm not immune to appreciating Rui's potential. I think a team MIGHT get a bargain contract if he is inked and extended before he breaks out. That he will give better value in his 2nd contract than he has in his rookie deal. Rui does show increasing comfort level and understanding out there. Seemingly. Bit by bit. Even if the consistency is still lacking. When his experience catches up with his talent and the gap narrows between his ability and his understanding of the game, well then, he may be a damn good player.

If I thought this team was good at actually developing raw talent into all-stars, I'd be more inclined to hold him and mentor him and shape him. So far we don't have a great track record of that. Should we hold these talented players in hopes they break out some day? Or is there something in the culture that prevents them from doing so. Will Wes be able to change that track record? There are a lot of unknowns, which to me get calculated both in the positive and negative columns when deciding if there is a deal to be had.

Seems to me Rui's potential though is worth some real assets. If the team chooses to cash in on them. If they gamble that he will yet grow into that potential, well alright, but so far he has not shown himself as a bargain contract producing more than he is getting paid. That matters less on a rookie contract when he is being paid the standard scale, but going forward reality catches up with hope and his value is what it is.

So basically: Do we cash in on the mystique? Or try to nurture it for our benefit. I'm sympathetic to those who would like to see him blossom on this team. I guess I would still be asking the moon from other front offices, and if Rui is the sweetener that gets us a cherry of a deal, well okay then, but I wouldn't try to shop him for an equivalent player. I'd still be acting like his upside is something we are banking on. UNLESS the right deal comes along. Because once a front office looks like they have given up on a player's potential, they tarnish the mystique. Especially given that Rui missed a mess of games with an undisclosed personal problem. That sort of thing doesn't show up on a team physical. Could manifest again at any time. Shrug. If that perception or fear shorts his value in trade, then I'm good holding on to him longer and working intensively with him to foster those abilities. There will be games where he shows flashes and other teams may themselves bid higher to get him. How long can you play the potential card? The team sees him in practice etc, I think they will have a better sense of it. Rui is one of those cases where you can't simply go by box score stats SO FAR but have to operate as though you are certain his upside is likely to be attained.

[WallToWall]

Has Rui shown enough to warrant a new contract with the team, and if yes, then at what price? Or are we better off trading him for pick(s) and/or other players?

As a 3 pt shooter or a 6th man who focuses mostly on offense, I still find him lacking because he doesn’t seem to be able to shoot at volume. Is this a function of our offense? I don’t think so, as I see him pass up 3 pt shots at regularity. Can he change this and become a volume shooter off the bench? I hope so because that seems to be his value, and his next contract with the wizards should reflect this. If, on the other hand, some other team values him more than this, then I’m all for a trade provided that the payoff is accordingly.
Rui shows glimpses of being a good offensive player beyond 3pt shooting. Maybe he will develop into one. He has shown that he is, at best, a slightly below average rebounder and defender. What is a player like that really worth to us?

[prime1time]

But why is it only Rui’s #s that get constantly nit picked? I don’t see the same level of scrutiny given to Deni and others.

Because his numbers are bad? What kind of question is this?

At age 21, Avdija averaged more assists, blocks, steals, and rebounds, than 21 year old Rui, and did it more efficiently.

Pick any advanced metric you want, they all say Rui is horrible and hurts his team when he is on the court. The only thing he has done well is make 3s at a high % for 20 something games. He’s 24 years old, there’s not going to be much improvement from here.

I agree with PC of course, give him the first half of next year to show you something still, it’s worth it, but then move him.

I have to say, after reading your analysis of players for a solid year now I have come to some conclusions. In my opinion, I personally believe that the way you evaluate players isn't really conducive to building a winning team. For example, in a previous post you mentioned players like Kyle Kuzma and Markief Morris as players that don't play winning basketball. The irony of course is that these players literally won a championship and were major contributors. If I had to guess, you'd probably put a player like Bobby Portis in the same category. And the same goes for JR Smith. Yet all these players are champions.

Even this post is devoid of reality. Among qualified SF's Deni Avdija is last in 3-point % at 31.9%. Now you'd say, well "Avdija averages more assists, blocks, steals and rebounds. And look at any advanced metric. Rui sucks. What you fundamentally fail to get is how winning basketball teams are constructed. To build a championship contender in 2022, first you find a star(s) and second, you find players that compliment said star. This is why the Mavs ultimately moved Porzingis. As good as Porzingis has been for us, in Dallas his game clashed with Luka.

In the NBA, there are stars and then there is everyone else. Role players barely move the needle. Let me say that again. Role players barely move the needle. And to talk about role players without discussing how said, role players game impacts the stars on the team is fundamentally not conducive to winning basketball. Rui be extended he should also be our starting PF. The floor spacing that he would provide at the 4 will make the game easier for Brad and Porzingis. Anything that Avdija does better than Rui does not offset the benefit that Rui provides regarding floor spacing.

[Runner300]

I've only watched a few full games this season.
In those games, there was one things that stood out for me regarding Rui.
His defensive effort was minimal.
Like actually staying in front of his guy, or following his guy through picks, or properly switching.

I don't understand how a guy in his position can afford neglecting defense.

He's extremely talented. He can shoot, drive, post-up. He's athletic and fast.
He can still make it.

[prime1time]

Has Rui shown enough to warrant a new contract with the team, and if yes, then at what price? Or are we better off trading him for pick(s) and/or other players?

As a 3 pt shooter or a 6th man who focuses mostly on offense, I still find him lacking because he doesn’t seem to be able to shoot at volume. Is this a function of our offense? I don’t think so, as I see him pass up 3 pt shots at regularity. Can he change this and become a volume shooter off the bench? I hope so because that seems to be his value, and his next contract with the wizards should reflect this. If, on the other hand, some other team values him more than this, then I’m all for a trade provided that the payoff is accordingly.
Rui shows glimpses of being a good offensive player beyond 3pt shooting. Maybe he will develop into one. He has shown that he is, at best, a slightly below average rebounder and defender. What is a player like that really worth to us?

Would it be better if Rui was an above average defender? Of course. Would it be better if Rui was an above-average rebounder? Of course. Ideally, would we have a player who was a great rebounder and a great defender, of course. But we have to live in the real world we have to rank and prioritize different traits of players when it comes to roster construction.

Let's rank 3 things: Rebounding, Man-to-Man Defense and Floor Spacing

What would you say is the most important trait for a 4 man, to complement a roster where Beal is the shooting guard and Porzingis is the center? For me I would say shooting. To the degree that a player can space the floor, it will allow Beal and Porzingis the ability to work in one-on-one situations. If a defender helps, we can pass the ball and now we can utilize ball movement to get a good shot. This is why 3-point shooting has taken over the league. And it is also why on the best teams, they only look for role players that can space the floor. Look at the Bucks last year. Everyone could shoot but Giannis. There's a reason for that. It's because if they can't provide spacing for Giannis to be effective, nothing else that role player can bring to the table matters.

Now ideally, you wouldn't have to compromise and you could find a player that could do everything. But the reality is that those players are very rare.

[prime1time]

There's nothing wrong with saying we should move on from Rui. But analysis needs to be grounded in reality. 1) Find a 4 who compliments Beal and Porzingis better than Rui does 2) Make the argument why even coming off the bench is unacceptable 3) what precisely you would do with him I.e. trade/release/let his contract expire etc.