'17-'18 POY discussion

[dreamshake]

I agree with the concensus about Oladipo as MIP, but wanted to throw out a name I haven’t seen much talk about for one of the other spots:

Andre Drummond

This guy addressed the biggest weakness in his game - nearly doubled(!!!) his free throw percentage. Before this season he averaged 38% - this season he shot 60%.

He became a much more intelligent passer - Drummond operating from the mid/high post as a passer isn’t something that had been a relevant part of the Detroit offense before this season - AST% of 14.3 from a previous career high of 6.0

He was #1 in the league in DRtg, Def. WS and DBPM (at least with BBRef numbers). Not trying to claim he’s DPOY or anything and I recognize those numbers are skewed by his insane rebounding (although that’s part of defense), but Detroit did have a top 10 defense and there isn’t a lot of defensive talent on that team.

Career high in VORP of 5.0 - more than double his previous highest. Also career highs in PER, WS, WS/48, etc.

All this while his USG% was actually down from his previous 2 years. Not too often you see guys stats jump this much with their USG% going down - which I find impressive.

He doesn’t have the playoff spotlight that the names we’re mostly seeing here did - but he really upped his game this year under the radar IMO.

[HeartBreakKid]

Drummond is a good shout out for sure. Might give him my bronze vote.

[clyde21]

I'd rank the MIPs as:

Victor Oladipo
Clint Capela
Andre Drummond
Montrezl Harrell
Kris Dunn

HM: Porzingis, Porter Jr., Harrell

[GSP]

I'd rank the MIPs as:

Victor Oladipo
Clint Capela
Andre Drummond
Montrezl Harrell
Kris Dunn

HM: Porzingis, Porter Jr., Harrell

Adams should def me top 5. He looked like Okcs best player for most of the year

And Ingles should prolly be in the top 5 mix too. Who couldve seen him outplaying Paul George for most of a playoff series? Specially after game 1 when George was hitting every shot he threw up

[clyde21]

I'd rank the MIPs as:

Victor Oladipo
Clint Capela
Andre Drummond
Montrezl Harrell
Kris Dunn

HM: Porzingis, Porter Jr., Harrell

Adams should def me top 5. He looked like Okcs best player for most of the year

And Ingles should prolly be in the top 5 mix too. Who couldve seen him outplaying Paul George for most of a playoff series? Specially after game 1 when George was hitting every shot he threw up

I was definitely thinking about including Ingles and Adams but I already put too many players down.

A lot of good options for MIP this year, for sure.

[bastillon]

Hmmm...

Well, going back to my pet example:

2005 raw +/- leaders
Ginobili +844
Duncan +765
Nash +728
Nowitzki +558
Shaq +540
Wade +481
Garnett +141

Parker +570
Horry +415

And please note this is not intended to be a critique of raw +/-. I like the way you use it in cases like these and I get why it’s releveant. But if it’s supposed to be a counter to me saying he played like a 6th man, well it doesn’t really hit the mark unless I’m missing something.

And I understand Davis is flawed and have some issues with him along the same lines as you do, but man, do you really think NOP makes the playoffs with 51 games of Curry instead of 70 of Davis? I understand this is not the be all and end all because the ceiling-raising act Curry does has obvious and dramatic effects. Ginobili’s did as well.

But the truth is Curry isn’t the same guy he was in 2016. He doesn’t have the off the dribble juice. He can’t really get by guys in isolation. And I think these flaws are masked really well by Durant’s presence. Curry was straight up awful in games 2, 4, and 5 against Houston and wasn’t particularly good in game 1. That leaves basically 3 games of good production from your ostensible Star... and really more like 3 combined quarters within those games. How many teams are loaded enough to actually get by with that?

Maybe it’s injury, maybe it’s conditioning, maybe it’s defensive schemes, maybe it’s Maybeline. But Curry really struggled for a lot of this postseason and I don’t think his good games coinciding with big blowouts do enough to make up for that. It still makes him the scariest offensive weapon in the league, but not close to the most versatile which is where he used to be.

Also, love PJ. he’s skyrocketed up to my top tier favorite players this season.

Curry's just not Ginobili though. When Curry was getting the huge +/- numbers this year there was no mystery to it, we can see it with our eyes. When things are grooving for the Warriors the way they tend to when Curry is out there and playing his best, the Warriors just seem to hit a different level. The fact that they haven't always been able to do in the playoffs is a legit knock and a legit knock on Curry, but it doesn't change the fact that everyone playing the Warriors game plans for fear of Curry in a way they just never did with Ginobili.

Really sad to see Manu 2005 used as an example of bad results of +/-. That's just disrespect to one of the greatest players of this generation. Manu had his limitations, namely low mins, but when he was on the court it could absolutely be argued he was Spurs best player (on a per minute basis).

Doc can I join POY voting later?

[iggymcfrack]

Poy rankings:

Lebron
Davis
Harden
Kd

Steph wouldve been there if he didnt miss so many games. For the last spot im literally torn b/w Oladipo and Giannis. They had extremely similar seasons IMO and played great against the conference finalist taking them to 7 as underdog. Initially i had Giannis at 4 but im still not comfortable enough with his offensive game to put him above offensive greats like Kd or Steph (who is only lower b/c of injuries). He is unstoppable in transition. As unstoppable as anyone but there are real questions about his halfcourt game. Even tho we are a great defense we prioritize on defending 3s and dont do well in the paint compared to other elite defenses. Giannis was a horrible matchup for us but i dont know how he would look against a team like Philly or even Torontos improved D from last year

Giannis is a great defender but is he one of the best defenders in the entire league? Im not sure enough to definitively say that yet. Oladipo IMO has a case over Giannis defensively and if it wasnt for Roberson who missed alot of games Victor is my runaway defensive perimeter player of the year specially after the playoffs with how Roco struggled on defense against us. Offensively he has issues like Giannis too but IMO both players at this point of their careers are getting by on athleticism and physical talents that i dont feel are consistent enough for deep playoff runs

so for those who have Giannis locked in over Dipo whats the reasoning?

27.3 PER vs. 23.1 PER and while Oladipo’s a little better defender, I feel like Giannis makes a major impact on that end and is at least close. Given that Giannis is also an excellent playmaker and there’s no reason to think he shouldn’t have elite level ORPM/ORAPM, I’m willing to give him a little bit of the benefit of the doubt on not having better impact numbers. I think it’s probably in large part due to the that dysfunctional coaching staff he’s been playing for. Just like it’s not LeBron’s fault he doesn’t have a team around him that can beat Golden State, it’s not Giannis’s fault that he’s had to play for idiots who don’t know how to maximize his contributions. I’m expecting he’ll look much better with Budenholzer next year and I’d consider him the frontrunner to win next year’s MVP.

I do think Giannis and Oladipo are very close though. I have them 4 and 5 myself and I gave serious consideration to moving Oladipo up to #4 due to his amazing playoff and regular season on/off numbers. If McMillan hadn’t foolishly sat him so long with foul trouble in Game 2, the Pacers probably win that series against Cleveland.

[HeartBreakKid]

No love for Jrue Holiday as MIP?

[Dr Spaceman]

Hmmm...

Well, going back to my pet example:

2005 raw +/- leaders
Ginobili +844
Duncan +765
Nash +728
Nowitzki +558
Shaq +540
Wade +481
Garnett +141

Parker +570
Horry +415

And please note this is not intended to be a critique of raw +/-. I like the way you use it in cases like these and I get why it’s releveant. But if it’s supposed to be a counter to me saying he played like a 6th man, well it doesn’t really hit the mark unless I’m missing something.

And I understand Davis is flawed and have some issues with him along the same lines as you do, but man, do you really think NOP makes the playoffs with 51 games of Curry instead of 70 of Davis? I understand this is not the be all and end all because the ceiling-raising act Curry does has obvious and dramatic effects. Ginobili’s did as well.

But the truth is Curry isn’t the same guy he was in 2016. He doesn’t have the off the dribble juice. He can’t really get by guys in isolation. And I think these flaws are masked really well by Durant’s presence. Curry was straight up awful in games 2, 4, and 5 against Houston and wasn’t particularly good in game 1. That leaves basically 3 games of good production from your ostensible Star... and really more like 3 combined quarters within those games. How many teams are loaded enough to actually get by with that?

Maybe it’s injury, maybe it’s conditioning, maybe it’s defensive schemes, maybe it’s Maybeline. But Curry really struggled for a lot of this postseason and I don’t think his good games coinciding with big blowouts do enough to make up for that. It still makes him the scariest offensive weapon in the league, but not close to the most versatile which is where he used to be.

Also, love PJ. he’s skyrocketed up to my top tier favorite players this season.

Curry's just not Ginobili though. When Curry was getting the huge +/- numbers this year there was no mystery to it, we can see it with our eyes. When things are grooving for the Warriors the way they tend to when Curry is out there and playing his best, the Warriors just seem to hit a different level. The fact that they haven't always been able to do in the playoffs is a legit knock and a legit knock on Curry, but it doesn't change the fact that everyone playing the Warriors game plans for fear of Curry in a way they just never did with Ginobili.

Really sad to see Manu 2005 used as an example of bad results of +/-. That's just disrespect to one of the greatest players of this generation. Manu had his limitations, namely low mins, but when he was on the court it could absolutely be argued he was Spurs best player (on a per minute basis).

Doc can I join POY voting later?

TO be clear I’m not using him as an example of bad plus minus results, I’m using him as an example of an MVP-level impact player who didn’t actually play enough to be a serious MVP candidate

[Unbiased hater]

MIP: Victor Oladipo
6th MOY : Lou Williams
ROY : Kyle Kuzma
COY : Dwane Casey
EOY : Kevin Pritchard
DPOY : Ruddy Gobert
OPOY : Kevin Durant

[dhsilv2]

I'd rank the MIPs as:

Victor Oladipo
Clint Capela
Andre Drummond
Montrezl Harrell
Kris Dunn

HM: Porzingis, Porter Jr., Harrell

Your top 3 were the first 3 to my head. I was thinking Drummond 2nd so might think more on it.

[dhsilv2]

No love for Jrue Holiday as MIP?

What's the case? Most of his stats are all pretty much the same as they've been. Is he really any better than he was back in philly? He was just healthy this year.

[pelifan]

No love for Jrue Holiday as MIP?

He should definitely be i the conversation. I dont love giving the award to 2nd and 3rd year players. Obviously Oladipo is #1 but Jrue should have an argument for atleast top 5

[pelifan]

No love for Jrue Holiday as MIP?

What's the case? Most of his stats are all pretty much the same as they've been. Is he really any better than he was back in philly? He was just healthy this year.

He .40 jump in TS% this year over his previous career best while scoring the most points and having his best defensive season to date. Also an awesome playoffs. Really if it weren't for his ugly 20 game start he'd probably be settled in at #2

[dhsilv2]

No love for Jrue Holiday as MIP?

What's the case? Most of his stats are all pretty much the same as they've been. Is he really any better than he was back in philly? He was just healthy this year.

He .40 jump in TS% this year over his previous career best while scoring the most points and having his best defensive season to date. Also an awesome playoffs. Really if it weren't for his ugly 20 game start he'd probably be settled in at #2

He did play great defense, but I think he's been a quality defender for some time as well. The 4% increase in TS% is nice but not MIP level.

[pelifan]

For MIP I'd go
Oladipo
Capella
Drummond

HM: Evans, Adams, Ingles, Holiday

ROTY is pretty locked
Simmons
Mitchell
Tatum

hm: the rest of the rookie first, Markanen and Kuzma
If there's any movement in that top 3 it's Mitchell for Simmons imo

DPOY:
Gobert
Embiid
Davis

HM: Roberson, Horford but really just Roberson. Strongly considering Roberson for 3 to hell with missed games

OPOTY
Harden
James
Curry

HM: Durant
I dont understand if you dont have James near to, or top of the OPOTY list. The Cavs had the 29th ranked defense so it wasn't like most of his value was coming from the defensive side of the ball.

COTY:
Quin Snyder
Brad Stevens
Pop

HM: Casey (I give most of the credit his assistants tbh)

I give a lot of credit to Gobert for sure, but that team having and average offense is nothing short of a miracle. And I dont think many coaches could have gotten that team to rally like they did when I thought for sure they were dead in the water. Pop is a dark horse this year, even through a lot of distractions at the end of the season especially, making the playoffs when your best player is LMA and your 2nd best is a 40 year old Manu Ginobili is impressive.

EOY:
no clue you tell me

But a Lakers guy deserves a mention if not top. Getting a first for Clarkson is the greatest heist of all time, Kuzma and Hart were both very good selections and better than Russell alone, not to mention getting out of Mozgov. What a year for them.

[HeartBreakKid]

What's the case? Most of his stats are all pretty much the same as they've been. Is he really any better than he was back in philly? He was just healthy this year.

He .40 jump in TS% this year over his previous career best while scoring the most points and having his best defensive season to date. Also an awesome playoffs. Really if it weren't for his ugly 20 game start he'd probably be settled in at #2

He did play great defense, but I think he's been a quality defender for some time as well. The 4% increase in TS% is nice but not MIP level.

4 % TS jump at 27 years old is a bit better than nice. For a guy who has been in the league as long as he has, to make a leap like that is not common. He was never the defender in Philly that he is now also.

[dhsilv2]

He .40 jump in TS% this year over his previous career best while scoring the most points and having his best defensive season to date. Also an awesome playoffs. Really if it weren't for his ugly 20 game start he'd probably be settled in at #2

He did play great defense, but I think he's been a quality defender for some time as well. The 4% increase in TS% is nice but not MIP level.

4 % TS jump at 27 years old is a bit better than nice. For a guy who has been in the league as long as he has, to make a leap like that is not common. He was never the defender in Philly that he is now also.

4% jumps happen fairly often. 4% isn't a big change. Korver has had multiple...

[HeartBreakKid]

He did play great defense, but I think he's been a quality defender for some time as well. The 4% increase in TS% is nice but not MIP level.

4 % TS jump at 27 years old is a bit better than nice. For a guy who has been in the league as long as he has, to make a leap like that is not common. He was never the defender in Philly that he is now also.

4% jumps happen fairly often. 4% isn't a big change. Korver has had multiple...

No they do not - and Kyle Korver was rated as a better player in his 30s than he was in his 20s, are you going to say that is common also?

Actually, I am not even sure why you would cite Korver as an example. Korver isn't an applicable comparison...he is a spot up shooter and not even close to a volume scorer. Doesn't create his own shot or score a lot of points - if he plays with good teammates he will shoot well.

Jrue Holiday actually played better after Cousins went down and his role became bigger with the team. The difference between a something a 20 point 60 TS% player and a 56 TS% player is pretty big...one is literally average, the other is very efficient.

[dhsilv2]

4 % TS jump at 27 years old is a bit better than nice. For a guy who has been in the league as long as he has, to make a leap like that is not common. He was never the defender in Philly that he is now also.

4% jumps happen fairly often. 4% isn't a big change. Korver has had multiple...

No they do not - and Kyle Korver was rated as a better player in his 30s than he was in his 20s, are you going to say that is common also?

Actually, I am not even sure why you would cite Korver as an example. Korver isn't an applicable comparison...he is a spot up shooter and not even close to a volume scorer. Doesn't create his own shot or score a lot of points - if he plays with good teammates he will shoot well.

Jrue Holiday actually played better after Cousins went down and his role became bigger with the team. The difference between a something a 20 point 60 TS% player and a 56 TS% player is pretty big...one is literally average, the other is very efficient.

But we're talking about a guy who was a 57% guy this year...

Kover was just the first name to jump into my head and he had a similar jump around 28 and then did it again later which is the 30's stuff you're talking about.