2013 Ask Jeff Risdon a Question

[righterwriter]

If I can recommend an article, how about a recap of last draft's steals, busts, and guys who hit their expectations, and why it all worked out the way it did.

Would be interesting to hear your retrospective opinion on these guys.

[Icness]

If I can recommend an article, how about a recap of last draft's steals, busts, and guys who hit their expectations, and why it all worked out the way it did.

Would be interesting to hear your retrospective opinion on these guys.

I'm actually looking back three years, but yes that's a good idea.

[hermes]

here is icness' latest mock
http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/2014/0 ... k-draft-2/

[hermes]

jeff, i understand the vikings not reaching for a qb at 8 if those first three are gone but can they really afford to wait until the third round to grab one or am i overstating the pressure on them to find their next qb? i think they could reach (or not depending on who it is) to take whatever qb they like in the second round

[Icness]

jeff, i understand the vikings not reaching for a qb at 8 if those first three are gone but can they really afford to wait until the third round to grab one or am i overstating the pressure on them to find their next qb? i think they could reach (or not depending on who it is) to take whatever qb they like in the second round

I think they're going to do something before then. Maybe it's trading for Kirk Cousins, or trading up into the bottom of the first for Carr or holding tight for Garoppolo. Still too early to know anything.

The thing is, they already have their bridge QB in place in Cassel. He wasn't terrible. They're a big longshot to win much in 2014, so they are in perfect position to take a developmental guy and take time to develop him. Or they ride it out and see what comes in 2015. Its not exactly appealing to the fans, but it avoids making a terrible reach high in the first.

[Manhattan Project]

With four picks in the first three rounds, do you realistically see the Jets going skill positions in at least three of them? It's no secret that the Jets seemed to love Matthews at the Senior Bowl, many fans are extremely high on him. Fans are in majority a big fan of what all four tight ends [Ebron, Amaro, ASK, CJ]

Do you think is conceivable that the Jets will double dip at WR and take a TE? Or will we see the Jets surprise and take a OLB and CB in there.

[hermes]

jeff, i understand the vikings not reaching for a qb at 8 if those first three are gone but can they really afford to wait until the third round to grab one or am i overstating the pressure on them to find their next qb? i think they could reach (or not depending on who it is) to take whatever qb they like in the second round

I think they're going to do something before then. Maybe it's trading for Kirk Cousins, or trading up into the bottom of the first for Carr or holding tight for Garoppolo. Still too early to know anything.

The thing is, they already have their bridge QB in place in Cassel. He wasn't terrible. They're a big longshot to win much in 2014, so they are in perfect position to take a developmental guy and take time to develop him. Or they ride it out and see what comes in 2015. Its not exactly appealing to the fans, but it avoids making a terrible reach high in the first.

how likely is it that if the vikings somehow get one of the top guys that they would still sit them behind cassel at least for like half a season or something, or is taking a qb with that high a pick (top 10) a big enough deal that you have to start them right away

[Worm Guts]

Ponder was taken at 12 and wasn't the immediate starter, so I don't think the Vikings would feel they need to start a 1st round QB right away.

[Newz]

Icness,

Can you give me a more indepth run down on Bradley Roby?

Also, I realize that this isn't draft related at all... but do you have any insight as to what the Packers plan to do with their secondary situation? Tramon Williams is owed big money this year, but is a free agent after. Shields (I assume) will demand big money and they have a lot of young talent in Hayward, House and Hyde. Do you see them locking Shields up long-term? Do you think they cut Tramon Williams if he isn't willing to renegotiate and take less this year? I assume Hayward will stay in the slot... I'm pretty much just wondering if you see any major changes coming at corner.

Also, any idea what they plan to do with the trainwreck that is their current safety situation? Do they still like Morgan Burnett? I heard a rumor that Charles Woodson may be headed back to GB as well... any truth to that?

[studcrackers]

Ponder was taken at 12 and wasn't the immediate starter, so I don't think the Vikings would feel they need to start a 1st round QB right away.

if they were smart they would (presumably for the right one, b/c cousins aint it)

[Icness]

Icness,

Can you give me a more indepth run down on Bradley Roby?

Also, I realize that this isn't draft related at all... but do you have any insight as to what the Packers plan to do with their secondary situation? Tramon Williams is owed big money this year, but is a free agent after. Shields (I assume) will demand big money and they have a lot of young talent in Hayward, House and Hyde. Do you see them locking Shields up long-term? Do you think they cut Tramon Williams if he isn't willing to renegotiate and take less this year? I assume Hayward will stay in the slot... I'm pretty much just wondering if you see any major changes coming at corner.

Also, any idea what they plan to do with the trainwreck that is their current safety situation? Do they still like Morgan Burnett? I heard a rumor that Charles Woodson may be headed back to GB as well... any truth to that?

Roby: he had a down year that was made to look worse because he was bad in their two most prominent games (Wisconsin and Clemson). The tOSU scheme didn't help him; they often asked him to play single man coverage with no safety help despite starting further off the line than he should have been. He didn't get along well with one of his coaches, from what I'm told, and carried that onto the field.

He's still a premium talent in my book. I was at the Big House and watched him chase down Jeremy Gallon from completely across the field and starting about 15 yards behind. I've never seen any DB with that kind of long speed since Rod Woodson. It was breathtaking.

Roby is a playmaking corner with iffy eye discipline. Sounds a little like Tramon Williams, no? Roby is faster and stronger with the ball in the air though.

On the Pack: Hayward and House are good enough for sure. Really think Hayward can take another step with a healthy offseason. I've heard he's progressing well.

Hyde is a solid role player, but be careful about asking too much of him. He's a great 3rd safety/4th corner in the way Don Carey is for Detroit or Michael Huff was in Oakland. That's a valuable role, I'm not dissing him there. I know they like the way he blitzes and attacks the run.

They're not paying Tramon Williams. Cutting him saves $7.5M vs. the cap and that's money they can use to bring in a prime free agent like Alex Mack or Jairus Byrd. I know they're not strapped for cap cash, but they're not apt to ever push into being close to that either.

I've never understood the fascination with Morgan Burnett. They drafted him in no small part because they knew the Bears coveted him. That's obviously not the only reason, but it certainly helped his appeal. Chicago was genuinely pissed when GB took him. And hey, he's better than their wretched duo of Conte and Wright.

I know it's perceived as out of character but I expect the Packers to be very active in free agency at safety. If not Byrd or T.J. Ward (he's not leaving CLE), the next tier of guys is pretty solid: Kendrick Lewis, Antoine Bethea, Donte Whitner, even Mike Mitchell or Stevie Brown.

Woodson is done, I'm afraid. Hopefully he recognizes it and retires. The body just doesn't respond any more. Nice story if he tries to go back, but if he's playing more than 10 snaps a game that's a horrible sign for the secondary around him. He couldn't run with Sean McGrath. Think about that.

Oh yeah, Shields. His inflated opinion of his ability could be his ticket out. If he wants top 5 CB money he's not getting that in GB. He might get it elsewhere. His advanced stat profile is pretty average; he compares more to Rashean Mathis or Corey Graham than to DRC or Alterraun Verner, who are competing for those same FA $$. My guess is that he'll either sign quickly in GB (like, the first day or two he can) or else he's going to chase more $$ elsewhere. Don't forget he's a Drew Rosenhaus guy, and the negotiations last summer did not go well.

[Icness]

Ponder was taken at 12 and wasn't the immediate starter, so I don't think the Vikings would feel they need to start a 1st round QB right away.

I believe that having a new coaching staff in place frees them from the pressure to rush a new QB too. Doesn't always work that way but it should here. Zimmer is no fool & he trusts Norv.

I've heard speculation that they'll go after Brian Hoyer, who played very well under Norv in CLE last year. That makes a lot of sense & won't cost much. That allows them to take a guy like Garoppolo in the 2nd and let him develop for a year. Have no idea if they're considering it though, my main source for Minny got axed

[Worm Guts]

The fact that Cassel voided his contract makes things tricky. Hoyer would be a nice option. I don't know if they'd consider throwing Ponder out there again.

[Newz]

On the Pack: Hayward and House are good enough for sure. Really think Hayward can take another step with a healthy offseason. I've heard he's progressing well.

Hyde is a solid role player, but be careful about asking too much of him. He's a great 3rd safety/4th corner in the way Don Carey is for Detroit or Michael Huff was in Oakland. That's a valuable role, I'm not dissing him there. I know they like the way he blitzes and attacks the run.

They're not paying Tramon Williams. Cutting him saves $7.5M vs. the cap and that's money they can use to bring in a prime free agent like Alex Mack or Jairus Byrd. I know they're not strapped for cap cash, but they're not apt to ever push into being close to that either.

I agree about Casey Hayward... I think he can become the premier slot corner in the NFL. Guy was unreal as a rookie. It really sucked that his sophmore year was stripped away from him by the hamstring. Do you see them keeping him in the slot or do you think there is potential for him to move outside and become a 'lock down' type guy?

I like House and I tend to agree with you on Hyde. While he is decent at corner, he doesn't appear to have the talent to be someone you want on the field consistently as a starter. He kind of reminds me of a rich man's Jarrett Bush. He can be a key special teams player and you don't mind him on the field at corner if a guy or two gets injured.

I would be pretty disappointed if we went after Mack. Not saying he's bad as he might be the best player at his position in the league... but I think they like Tretter and I'd rather bring back ED-S since I assume he will be significantly cheaper. Byrd would be a massive upgrade though and a true difference maker on the Packers.

I know it's perceived as out of character but I expect the Packers to be very active in free agency at safety. If not Byrd or T.J. Ward (he's not leaving CLE), the next tier of guys is pretty solid: Kendrick Lewis, Antoine Bethea, Donte Whitner, even Mike Mitchell or Stevie Brown.

I hope you are right. Letting go over Tramon (assuming we retrain Shields), promoting House to starter, drafting a young corner to develop in rounds 1-4 and then signing Byrd at safety would be an excellent plan of attack (in my opinion). How much money do you think Byrd demands per year in free agency? $7.5-$8.5 million?

Oh yeah, Shields. His inflated opinion of his ability could be his ticket out. If he wants top 5 CB money he's not getting that in GB. He might get it elsewhere. His advanced stat profile is pretty average; he compares more to Rashean Mathis or Corey Graham than to DRC or Alterraun Verner, who are competing for those same FA $$. My guess is that he'll either sign quickly in GB (like, the first day or two he can) or else he's going to chase more $$ elsewhere. Don't forget he's a Drew Rosenhaus guy, and the negotiations last summer did not go well.

I didn't know that he wanted top 5 corner money. I really like Shields as he has unreal speed and makes some eye popping plays because of it. It would definitely be a pretty big hit to our defense to lose him... but I also wouldn't be paying him north of nine-ten million dollars either.

If we lose Shields to free agency, do you think that they would also let Tramon Williams go as well? Or do you think they would just use that money they have set aside for Shields to attack a free agent safety?

In addition (since you seem open to discussing the team) do you know if we are still in love with AJ Hawk? What about Brad Jones and Lattimore? I know most fans tend to think safety is our weakest position on D, but I personally think upgrades at ILB would make a far bigger difference. If CJ Mosley is gone by 21 I assume that there is no one else at that spot they'd target in round 1. Who do you think they'd go after later in the draft?

[zmanishere11]

Dang Newz, way to scare Jeff off with like 100 questions about the Packers. You do know he's a Lions fan, don't you!?

Anyways, curious to hear what Jeff thinks about Michael Sams draft stock pre and post "coming out." I think it's awesome that his team new it since August and everyone kept it quite, without him asking them to.

[Icness]

Sorry for the delay, I was largely unplugged over the weekend.

Before I answer your GB questions, gotta say I'm real pleased to see Sam Gash get the RB coach gig. I knew him a bit from his Detroit days, saw him at Sr. Bowl week this year and he remembered me. He'll help Lacy, stresses attacking the defense and staying behind the pads while leaning forward, a concept I saw Lacy struggle with all year. It is worth noting that Joique Bell got a lot better after he left, but he did a good job with Leshoure and Kevin Smith.

Also, keep an eye on NAU RB Zach Bauman. Ted was clearly enthused in watching him cut and operate in traffic during Shrine Game practices, had one of his guys talk to him right after a session. He's a Darren Sproles type, exceptionally quick feet and the ability to cut in any direction--including backwards--at high speed. TT also beelined (for him, he's moving noticeably slower and looks a lot older than even a year ago) to Max Bullough right after another session and talked to him for a good 10 minutes. Ted doesn't waste time at these things

Back to your questions:
I'd be very surprised if Hayward moves out of the slot. Just look at the outside receivers in the NFC North: Megatron, Jeffery/Marshall, and Patterson. Bad matchups outside for Hayward. Keep him inside and let him shut down the underneath and intermediate area. Hyde is a lot more physical, Bush is too. Shields is strictly an outside cover man, makes too much sense to keep Hayward inside.

Byrd is going to get around what you said, maybe a little more. I could see 4 yr/$35M. The market demand exceeds supply, and there's not any top-end safety talent in this draft class.

I wish I could answer the Tramon question because I do think his status gets resolved before Shields, one way or the other. My guess is he's gone.

On the LBs: Hawk is still highly regarded. I thought he played his best football ever in the last third of the season. He's one of your starters in 2014.

Lattimore is so small-framed that it's hard to see him ever being more than a situational sub. He's maxed out at about 235 pounds and when he's that heavy he's slower. Honestly I never understood the attraction by GB as he's a natural 4-3 WLB.

Personally I would go after an upgrade over Brad Jones quickly. Mosley makes sense and I'd put it at about 50% he's still there. LBs that don't rush the passer as a primary attribute don't go high in the draft, and those that do (Hawk, McClain, Curry) have been big disappointments relative to draft slot. Teams are learning that. Mosley is perfect for the Packers. Ryan Shazier makes some sense but less so because he's smaller. He's an outstanding blitzer between the tackles, which is Jones' best attribute IMO.


Chris Borland would be great. I know, he's short. But dude is a flat-out football player. Moved better in space than anyone expected at Senior Bowl practices, and his instincts are off the charts. Lots of people compare him to Zach Thomas but my comparison is London Fletcher because he's more fluid like that than Thomas. GB would need to use its 2nd round pick on him.

Later round guys to look at: Bullough, as I mentioned above. He was out of shape in St. Pete and still was better than most guys there. 5th-6th rounder.

I like Preston Brown out of Louisville. Good vision and range, relatively quick. High-cut and leggy, which leads to problems in tight spaces, but he knows it and does a good job staying out of the wash. Good cover guy, can blitz a little. 4th-5th rounder that is NFL-ready.

Two UDFAs that are sure to interest GB: Brock Coyle from Montana and Spencer Shuey from Clemson.

Another guy the Packers showed a lot of interest in during Shrine Week was South Dakota OLB Tyler Starr. I wrote this about him:

Tyler Starr, LB, South Dakota: If you read my practice reports from the week, you know my football man crush on Starr. Aside from the fact he looks like a long-lost Matthews brother with the long hair flowing and the exaggerated biceps, his versatility really infatuated me. Should the Lions opt to use more three LB sets, they need someone like Starr who can stay on the field in all situations. He was the best, most natural coverage backer on either roster. He proved he could bring the pain with a couple of vicious hits on smartly read run fills. He even flashed the ability to press the edge and turn the corner as a pass rusher. I’ve only seen one game tape thus far, but based on that and his work here, I wouldn’t be upset at all if the Lions used their 4th round pick on Starr.

http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/2014/0 ... rine-game/

He could play inside or outside. My evaluation of his draft stock was probably two rounds too high though.

[Icness]

Dang Newz, way to scare Jeff off with like 100 questions about the Packers. You do know he's a Lions fan, don't you!?

Anyways, curious to hear what Jeff thinks about Michael Sams draft stock pre and post "coming out." I think it's awesome that his team new it since August and everyone kept it quite, without him asking them to.

Writing about it, should be up on this site later today. I'm in total agreement that it's awesome his entire team knew and nobody leaked it, says a hell of a lot about how well-respected Sam is and how tight that Mizzou program is.

I was not a fan of his game as it translates to the NFL beforehand, had a 6th-7th round grade on Sam but expected him to go in the 4th. Will be fascinating to see if a team rushes to grab him for the publicity or if everyone shies away.

For the record, I did not know he was gay but I was made aware during Shrine Game week that a notable prospect would be coming out before the draft. The name that was whispered to me there by a reputable agent was not Sam, either. Will be interesting if more do, because he's not alone.

[gswhoops]

Dang Newz, way to scare Jeff off with like 100 questions about the Packers. You do know he's a Lions fan, don't you!?

Anyways, curious to hear what Jeff thinks about Michael Sams draft stock pre and post "coming out." I think it's awesome that his team new it since August and everyone kept it quite, without him asking them to.

Writing about it, should be up on this site later today. I'm in total agreement that it's awesome his entire team knew and nobody leaked it, says a hell of a lot about how well-respected Sam is and how tight that Mizzou program is.

I was not a fan of his game as it translates to the NFL beforehand, had a 6th-7th round grade on Sam but expected him to go in the 4th. Will be fascinating to see if a team rushes to grab him for the publicity or if everyone shies away.

For the record, I did not know he was gay but I was made aware during Shrine Game week that a notable prospect would be coming out before the draft. The name that was whispered to me there by a reputable agent was not Sam, either. Will be interesting if more do, because he's not alone.

Oh wow, very interesting. I wonder if Sam will inspire other prospects to do the same, or if they'll watch how his draft experience goes before coming out.

[kdawg32086]

Where would the 1st round qbs from the 12 and 13 drafts be taken if they were in this year's draft?

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[Icness]

Where would the 1st round qbs from the 12 and 13 drafts be taken if they were in this year's draft?

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Good question

I'll just put them in order I think they all would go this year if they were all prospects:
1. Luck
2. Bridgewater
3. RG3
4. Tannehill
5. Manziel
6. Bortles
7. Carr
8. Geno Smith
9. Garoppolo
10. Weeden

Smith would have gone over Weeden in the same draft class IMO. Teddy gets the nod over RG3 because of the college injuries and systems. You could flip Manziel and Tannehill too.