The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[Roy The Natural]

But their impact ISN'T pretty identical, you're just saying that.

Again Mitchell is putting up these stats in SEVEN less minutes per game, that's a BIG difference. There isn't a star in this league that if you added another 7mpg to that wouldn't see a substantial increase in their numbers. Funny enough there's usually probably about that amount of time difference on the court between many bench players and starters. Heck even if you went with Per 36 numbers he'd average 21.5ppg and he'd STILL have another 2.6mpg LESS than what Lillard played.

Also nothing of what you said addressed DM having better length which certainly makes a difference (ie/ Draymond had 2-3 inch shorter wingspan he's not anywhere near as effective and would be considered the size of most average SGs nevermind handling PFs) Being a better, more explosive athlete with better length and the size of a SG vs PG is a significant difference which is why he doesn't have to be as reliant on his shooting as Lillard is. Plus you also skipped over DM being a much better defender, that's another MAJOR advantage. Really you didn't seem to address any of that and I don't mean that to be rude but you're not acknowledging ANY of the advantages he has tbh, if you did you would see what separates them.

Didn't really skip Mitchell's strengths as much as point to his weaknesses. You compared him to Harden. The guy is going to need to increase his assists and FT drawing by nearly 300% to approach Harden's level. Mitchell has a SKY HIGH usage percentage, leading a fairly mediocre offense. He's a beast no doubt, but a 28% usg rate, with a pretty terrible asst% of 19%. I'm not even sure at this point that Mitchell is actually a PG, or capable of being the primary ball-handler in a top notch offense, as much as he's more a scoring 2 guard, with good length, albeit a smidge undersized.

I'd have no qualms with someone predicting him eclipsing Lillard in overall impact. It's the gaudy expectations of MVP level play I have reservations about, with someone who's at this point shown to be more of a scorer than a well rounded primary ball-handler. I'm not saying Mitchell can't do these things, but he's got some major leaps to make before predicting he's an MVP level player. I can't think of many primary ball-handlers, even at a young age who were rocking a near 30% usage% and an under 20% ast rate.....
I mean, I guess you've got young Monta Ellis, but that's not really a wonderful shining beacon. Mitchell is going to need to pass the ball better to lead a team on the offensive end.

You can't have a guy suffocating the rest of the team offensively like he is currently as a winning formula. Maybe it's just a product of the roster, but that remains to be seen. Right now, Mitchell looks like a dynamite scorer who needs a lot of work in running an offense (something that was definitely on the college scouting report). He needs to (and probably will) get better at drawing fouls for those nights when his solid, but so far streaky shooting isn't hitting. He's finishing tremendously well right now, but it's hard to imagine him being a career 67% finisher. I'd imagine 58-63% is more reasonable once he's been scouted a bit. That's just a tremendously rare finishing rate for a guard, and maybe he's an all-time great finisher when it's all said and done, but I'd wager that finishing % regresses to a mean of around 60% sooner or later, before I make that leap.

Ok I keep seeing you repeat this and you have to stop it but no one is "predicting" or has the "expectations" that he is going to be a MVP level player, I said I could see him reaching a similar level as Harden which also means not an identical player which you're equally hung up on when comparing their games. I didn't say he WILL or IS, there is nothing definitive about the statement but quite clearly implies more so potential and a projection just to make that clear.

Of course he'll have to work on being a better playmaker for others as did Harden. Ironically when Harden was 22 years old playing almost the exact amount of minutes as Mitchell now, Harden averaged 3.7apg to Mitchell's 3.4apg. Keep in mind Rubio is still actually Utah's PG. I know there will likely be a difference in usage but Harden's assist numbers didn't really explode until D'Antoni, don't get me wrong he was always a good passer but the numbers only really jumped when he went to HOU and became THE playmaker which isn't quite the case yet for Mitchell in Snyder's system and again I didn't say identical players.

The only answer I gave definitively was that I believe he will be better than Lillard and I provided reasoning, none of which you so much as attempted to address but they are all very significant differences/advantages between the 2 players. You also can't keep repeating the statement that Dame & Mitchell's impact was pretty identical because it's simply not true when Mitchell is doing equal in MUCH less time. Especially when you factor that there is 2 sides of the basketball court and Mitchell is by far the better defender which alone separates their impacts as rookies but also projection moving forward. Least we mention being a bigger, longer and more explosive athlete that has the size of SG not a PG. But let me stop repeating because you're simply going to conveniently skip over it anyways and I just don't want to go in circles anymore so I'll agree to disagree.

He's not really doing equal in less time though.... They're doing about the same... per minute. Mitchell is scoring a bit more, but responsible for less offense overall. Mitchell has been a better defensive player, though he's also got an elite defensive team around him (he's a better defender though, no argument), but Lillard's OBPM is SIGNIFICANTLY better. In fact it's double. By nearly every advanced statistic Lillard had a higher offensive impact, and quite significantly so.

Lillard OWS - 5.1
Mitchell OWS - 1.0 (On Pace for over 82 games, currently at 0.6)
Lillard OBPM - 2.7
Mitchell OBPM - 1.2
Lillard TS% - .546
Mitchell TS% - .546
Lillard FTR - .249
Mitchell FTR - .197

Minutes are irrelevant, despite scoring similar numbers, and Lillard passing the ball significantly better, he had a lower USG%. If Mitchell played more minutes, he'd score a couple more points... but his ast% would still be an issue, and his per minute statistics would still signal he's got a long ways to go.

I could agree that Mitchell has some of the raw measurables to exceed Lillard, but he's currently a worse overall offensive player than Lillard was in his rookie season by most metrics, and in most regards... and he's got quite a ways to go before being hailed as a true point guard.

I want to make it clear, that I believe Mitchell is and will be a star, but I'm not seeing ANY REAL differentiators between he and Lillard in terms of career potential at this exact moment. I believe that Mitchell is a better athlete than Lillard was, but the difference isn't incredibly dramatic, and I'd say the gap between the Rose/Wall/Westbrooks of the world and Mitchell is far greater than the gap between Lillard and Mitchell.

Mitchell in my view is likely to be a similar scorer to Lillard at 25-28PPG, while being a better defender (though Lillard has improved to the point of respectability IMO), but is probably not ever going to be the same threat as a passer or pick and roll player. Take it for what you will, I'd say that gives Mitchell an edge, but not enough of an edge to consider their trajectories significantly different. I'm also not a believer that Mitchell will be a career volume 67% finisher at the rim, that number is absurd for a guard his size, and will likely stabilize in the 58-62% range from year to year. Mitchell has multiple leaps to make before any of this is possible though.

[WaveTheWheat80]

Didn't really skip Mitchell's strengths as much as point to his weaknesses. You compared him to Harden. The guy is going to need to increase his assists and FT drawing by nearly 300% to approach Harden's level. Mitchell has a SKY HIGH usage percentage, leading a fairly mediocre offense. He's a beast no doubt, but a 28% usg rate, with a pretty terrible asst% of 19%. I'm not even sure at this point that Mitchell is actually a PG, or capable of being the primary ball-handler in a top notch offense, as much as he's more a scoring 2 guard, with good length, albeit a smidge undersized.

I'd have no qualms with someone predicting him eclipsing Lillard in overall impact. It's the gaudy expectations of MVP level play I have reservations about, with someone who's at this point shown to be more of a scorer than a well rounded primary ball-handler. I'm not saying Mitchell can't do these things, but he's got some major leaps to make before predicting he's an MVP level player. I can't think of many primary ball-handlers, even at a young age who were rocking a near 30% usage% and an under 20% ast rate.....
I mean, I guess you've got young Monta Ellis, but that's not really a wonderful shining beacon. Mitchell is going to need to pass the ball better to lead a team on the offensive end.

You can't have a guy suffocating the rest of the team offensively like he is currently as a winning formula. Maybe it's just a product of the roster, but that remains to be seen. Right now, Mitchell looks like a dynamite scorer who needs a lot of work in running an offense (something that was definitely on the college scouting report). He needs to (and probably will) get better at drawing fouls for those nights when his solid, but so far streaky shooting isn't hitting. He's finishing tremendously well right now, but it's hard to imagine him being a career 67% finisher. I'd imagine 58-63% is more reasonable once he's been scouted a bit. That's just a tremendously rare finishing rate for a guard, and maybe he's an all-time great finisher when it's all said and done, but I'd wager that finishing % regresses to a mean of around 60% sooner or later, before I make that leap.

Ok I keep seeing you repeat this and you have to stop it but no one is "predicting" or has the "expectations" that he is going to be a MVP level player, I said I could see him reaching a similar level as Harden which also means not an identical player which you're equally hung up on when comparing their games. I didn't say he WILL or IS, there is nothing definitive about the statement but quite clearly implies more so potential and a projection just to make that clear.

Of course he'll have to work on being a better playmaker for others as did Harden. Ironically when Harden was 22 years old playing almost the exact amount of minutes as Mitchell now, Harden averaged 3.7apg to Mitchell's 3.4apg. Keep in mind Rubio is still actually Utah's PG. I know there will likely be a difference in usage but Harden's assist numbers didn't really explode until D'Antoni, don't get me wrong he was always a good passer but the numbers only really jumped when he went to HOU and became THE playmaker which isn't quite the case yet for Mitchell in Snyder's system and again I didn't say identical players.

The only answer I gave definitively was that I believe he will be better than Lillard and I provided reasoning, none of which you so much as attempted to address but they are all very significant differences/advantages between the 2 players. You also can't keep repeating the statement that Dame & Mitchell's impact was pretty identical because it's simply not true when Mitchell is doing equal in MUCH less time. Especially when you factor that there is 2 sides of the basketball court and Mitchell is by far the better defender which alone separates their impacts as rookies but also projection moving forward. Least we mention being a bigger, longer and more explosive athlete that has the size of SG not a PG. But let me stop repeating because you're simply going to conveniently skip over it anyways and I just don't want to go in circles anymore so I'll agree to disagree.

He's not really doing equal in less time though.... They're doing about the same... per minute. Mitchell is scoring a bit more, but responsible for less offense overall. Mitchell has been a better defensive player, though he's also got an elite defensive team around him (he's a better defender though, no argument), but Lillard's OBPM is SIGNIFICANTLY better. In fact it's double. By nearly every advanced statistic Lillard had a higher offensive impact, and quite significantly so.

Lillard OWS - 5.1
Mitchell OWS - 1.0 (On Pace for over 82 games, currently at 0.6)
Lillard OBPM - 2.7
Mitchell OBPM - 1.2
Lillard TS% - .546
Mitchell TS% - .546
Lillard FTR - .249
Mitchell FTR - .197

Minutes are irrelevant, despite scoring similar numbers, and Lillard passing the ball significantly better, he had a lower USG%. If Mitchell played more minutes, he'd score a couple more points... but his ast% would still be an issue, and his per minute statistics would still signal he's got a long ways to go.

I could agree that Mitchell has some of the raw measurables to exceed Lillard, but he's currently a worse overall offensive player than Lillard was in his rookie season by most metrics, and in most regards... and he's got quite a ways to go before being hailed as a true point guard.

I want to make it clear, that I believe Mitchell is and will be a star, but I'm not seeing ANY REAL differentiators between he and Lillard in terms of career potential at this exact moment. I believe that Mitchell is a better athlete than Lillard was, but the difference isn't incredibly dramatic, and I'd say the gap between the Rose/Wall/Westbrooks of the world and Mitchell is far greater than the gap between Lillard and Mitchell.

Mitchell in my view is likely to be a similar scorer to Lillard at 25-28PPG, while being a better defender (though Lillard has improved to the point of respectability IMO), but is probably not ever going to be the same threat as a passer or pick and roll player. Take it for what you will, I'd say that gives Mitchell an edge, but not enough of an edge to consider their trajectories significantly different. I'm also not a believer that Mitchell will be a career volume 67% finisher at the rim, that number is absurd for a guard his size, and will likely stabilize in the 58-62% range from year to year. Mitchell has multiple leaps to make before any of this is possible though.

Are these Lillard's rookie year stats?

[Roy The Natural]

Ok I keep seeing you repeat this and you have to stop it but no one is "predicting" or has the "expectations" that he is going to be a MVP level player, I said I could see him reaching a similar level as Harden which also means not an identical player which you're equally hung up on when comparing their games. I didn't say he WILL or IS, there is nothing definitive about the statement but quite clearly implies more so potential and a projection just to make that clear.

Of course he'll have to work on being a better playmaker for others as did Harden. Ironically when Harden was 22 years old playing almost the exact amount of minutes as Mitchell now, Harden averaged 3.7apg to Mitchell's 3.4apg. Keep in mind Rubio is still actually Utah's PG. I know there will likely be a difference in usage but Harden's assist numbers didn't really explode until D'Antoni, don't get me wrong he was always a good passer but the numbers only really jumped when he went to HOU and became THE playmaker which isn't quite the case yet for Mitchell in Snyder's system and again I didn't say identical players.

The only answer I gave definitively was that I believe he will be better than Lillard and I provided reasoning, none of which you so much as attempted to address but they are all very significant differences/advantages between the 2 players. You also can't keep repeating the statement that Dame & Mitchell's impact was pretty identical because it's simply not true when Mitchell is doing equal in MUCH less time. Especially when you factor that there is 2 sides of the basketball court and Mitchell is by far the better defender which alone separates their impacts as rookies but also projection moving forward. Least we mention being a bigger, longer and more explosive athlete that has the size of SG not a PG. But let me stop repeating because you're simply going to conveniently skip over it anyways and I just don't want to go in circles anymore so I'll agree to disagree.

He's not really doing equal in less time though.... They're doing about the same... per minute. Mitchell is scoring a bit more, but responsible for less offense overall. Mitchell has been a better defensive player, though he's also got an elite defensive team around him (he's a better defender though, no argument), but Lillard's OBPM is SIGNIFICANTLY better. In fact it's double. By nearly every advanced statistic Lillard had a higher offensive impact, and quite significantly so.

Lillard OWS - 5.1
Mitchell OWS - 1.0 (On Pace for over 82 games, currently at 0.6)
Lillard OBPM - 2.7
Mitchell OBPM - 1.2
Lillard TS% - .546
Mitchell TS% - .546
Lillard FTR - .249
Mitchell FTR - .197

Minutes are irrelevant, despite scoring similar numbers, and Lillard passing the ball significantly better, he had a lower USG%. If Mitchell played more minutes, he'd score a couple more points... but his ast% would still be an issue, and his per minute statistics would still signal he's got a long ways to go.

I could agree that Mitchell has some of the raw measurables to exceed Lillard, but he's currently a worse overall offensive player than Lillard was in his rookie season by most metrics, and in most regards... and he's got quite a ways to go before being hailed as a true point guard.

I want to make it clear, that I believe Mitchell is and will be a star, but I'm not seeing ANY REAL differentiators between he and Lillard in terms of career potential at this exact moment. I believe that Mitchell is a better athlete than Lillard was, but the difference isn't incredibly dramatic, and I'd say the gap between the Rose/Wall/Westbrooks of the world and Mitchell is far greater than the gap between Lillard and Mitchell.

Mitchell in my view is likely to be a similar scorer to Lillard at 25-28PPG, while being a better defender (though Lillard has improved to the point of respectability IMO), but is probably not ever going to be the same threat as a passer or pick and roll player. Take it for what you will, I'd say that gives Mitchell an edge, but not enough of an edge to consider their trajectories significantly different. I'm also not a believer that Mitchell will be a career volume 67% finisher at the rim, that number is absurd for a guard his size, and will likely stabilize in the 58-62% range from year to year. Mitchell has multiple leaps to make before any of this is possible though.

Are these Lillard's rookie year stats?

Yes... Lillard is in the 10 OWS/6 OBPM/.59 TS%/.35 FTR area now.

[Hedda Gambler]

Ok I keep seeing you repeat this and you have to stop it but no one is "predicting" or has the "expectations" that he is going to be a MVP level player, I said I could see him reaching a similar level as Harden which also means not an identical player which you're equally hung up on when comparing their games. I didn't say he WILL or IS, there is nothing definitive about the statement but quite clearly implies more so potential and a projection just to make that clear.

Of course he'll have to work on being a better playmaker for others as did Harden. Ironically when Harden was 22 years old playing almost the exact amount of minutes as Mitchell now, Harden averaged 3.7apg to Mitchell's 3.4apg. Keep in mind Rubio is still actually Utah's PG. I know there will likely be a difference in usage but Harden's assist numbers didn't really explode until D'Antoni, don't get me wrong he was always a good passer but the numbers only really jumped when he went to HOU and became THE playmaker which isn't quite the case yet for Mitchell in Snyder's system and again I didn't say identical players.

The only answer I gave definitively was that I believe he will be better than Lillard and I provided reasoning, none of which you so much as attempted to address but they are all very significant differences/advantages between the 2 players. You also can't keep repeating the statement that Dame & Mitchell's impact was pretty identical because it's simply not true when Mitchell is doing equal in MUCH less time. Especially when you factor that there is 2 sides of the basketball court and Mitchell is by far the better defender which alone separates their impacts as rookies but also projection moving forward. Least we mention being a bigger, longer and more explosive athlete that has the size of SG not a PG. But let me stop repeating because you're simply going to conveniently skip over it anyways and I just don't want to go in circles anymore so I'll agree to disagree.

He's not really doing equal in less time though.... They're doing about the same... per minute. Mitchell is scoring a bit more, but responsible for less offense overall. Mitchell has been a better defensive player, though he's also got an elite defensive team around him (he's a better defender though, no argument), but Lillard's OBPM is SIGNIFICANTLY better. In fact it's double. By nearly every advanced statistic Lillard had a higher offensive impact, and quite significantly so.

Lillard OWS - 5.1
Mitchell OWS - 1.0 (On Pace for over 82 games, currently at 0.6)
Lillard OBPM - 2.7
Mitchell OBPM - 1.2
Lillard TS% - .546
Mitchell TS% - .546
Lillard FTR - .249
Mitchell FTR - .197

Minutes are irrelevant, despite scoring similar numbers, and Lillard passing the ball significantly better, he had a lower USG%. If Mitchell played more minutes, he'd score a couple more points... but his ast% would still be an issue, and his per minute statistics would still signal he's got a long ways to go.

I could agree that Mitchell has some of the raw measurables to exceed Lillard, but he's currently a worse overall offensive player than Lillard was in his rookie season by most metrics, and in most regards... and he's got quite a ways to go before being hailed as a true point guard.

I want to make it clear, that I believe Mitchell is and will be a star, but I'm not seeing ANY REAL differentiators between he and Lillard in terms of career potential at this exact moment. I believe that Mitchell is a better athlete than Lillard was, but the difference isn't incredibly dramatic, and I'd say the gap between the Rose/Wall/Westbrooks of the world and Mitchell is far greater than the gap between Lillard and Mitchell.

Mitchell in my view is likely to be a similar scorer to Lillard at 25-28PPG, while being a better defender (though Lillard has improved to the point of respectability IMO), but is probably not ever going to be the same threat as a passer or pick and roll player. Take it for what you will, I'd say that gives Mitchell an edge, but not enough of an edge to consider their trajectories significantly different. I'm also not a believer that Mitchell will be a career volume 67% finisher at the rim, that number is absurd for a guard his size, and will likely stabilize in the 58-62% range from year to year. Mitchell has multiple leaps to make before any of this is possible though.

Are these Lillard's rookie year stats?

Yes, they`re from his rookie year. But, if we are to compare these players, it makes much more sense to look at Lillard`s pre all-star stats his rookie year:

fg% - 41,8%
3p% - 35%

Donovan is shooting 44,2% with 33,9% from 3. Lillard made a leap in efficiency after the all star break his rookie year. Let`s give Donovan the courtesy of having the opportunity to do the same when we compare them.

[Roy The Natural]

He's not really doing equal in less time though.... They're doing about the same... per minute. Mitchell is scoring a bit more, but responsible for less offense overall. Mitchell has been a better defensive player, though he's also got an elite defensive team around him (he's a better defender though, no argument), but Lillard's OBPM is SIGNIFICANTLY better. In fact it's double. By nearly every advanced statistic Lillard had a higher offensive impact, and quite significantly so.

Lillard OWS - 5.1
Mitchell OWS - 1.0 (On Pace for over 82 games, currently at 0.6)
Lillard OBPM - 2.7
Mitchell OBPM - 1.2
Lillard TS% - .546
Mitchell TS% - .546
Lillard FTR - .249
Mitchell FTR - .197

Minutes are irrelevant, despite scoring similar numbers, and Lillard passing the ball significantly better, he had a lower USG%. If Mitchell played more minutes, he'd score a couple more points... but his ast% would still be an issue, and his per minute statistics would still signal he's got a long ways to go.

I could agree that Mitchell has some of the raw measurables to exceed Lillard, but he's currently a worse overall offensive player than Lillard was in his rookie season by most metrics, and in most regards... and he's got quite a ways to go before being hailed as a true point guard.

I want to make it clear, that I believe Mitchell is and will be a star, but I'm not seeing ANY REAL differentiators between he and Lillard in terms of career potential at this exact moment. I believe that Mitchell is a better athlete than Lillard was, but the difference isn't incredibly dramatic, and I'd say the gap between the Rose/Wall/Westbrooks of the world and Mitchell is far greater than the gap between Lillard and Mitchell.

Mitchell in my view is likely to be a similar scorer to Lillard at 25-28PPG, while being a better defender (though Lillard has improved to the point of respectability IMO), but is probably not ever going to be the same threat as a passer or pick and roll player. Take it for what you will, I'd say that gives Mitchell an edge, but not enough of an edge to consider their trajectories significantly different. I'm also not a believer that Mitchell will be a career volume 67% finisher at the rim, that number is absurd for a guard his size, and will likely stabilize in the 58-62% range from year to year. Mitchell has multiple leaps to make before any of this is possible though.

Are these Lillard's rookie year stats?

Yes, they`re from his rookie year. But, if we are to compare these players, it makes much more sense to look at Lillard`s pre all-star stats his rookie year:

fg% - 41,8%
3p% - 35%

Donovan is shooting 44,2% with 33,9% from 3. Lillard made a leap in efficiency after the all star break his rookie year. Let`s give Donovan the courtesy of having the opportunity to do the same when we compare them.

Sure, I guess that's a fine notion. We should however also hold off on career trajectory predictions in the mean time as well. I mean, we can only work with what we have.

[Hedda Gambler]

Are these Lillard's rookie year stats?

Yes, they`re from his rookie year. But, if we are to compare these players, it makes much more sense to look at Lillard`s pre all-star stats his rookie year:

fg% - 41,8%
3p% - 35%

Donovan is shooting 44,2% with 33,9% from 3. Lillard made a leap in efficiency after the all star break his rookie year. Let`s give Donovan the courtesy of having the opportunity to do the same when we compare them.

Sure, I guess that's a fine notion. We should however also hold off on career trajectory predictions in the mean time as well. I mean, we can only work with what we have.

What are we to do on a message board if we can`t speculate?

I have no idea what kind of player Donovan Mitchell will be or what kind of a career he will have. I just love watching him on the Jazz. You had some good points when you pointed out the differences in offensive impact between him and Lillard. I get goose bumps when people are even talking about him having the same offensive impact as Lillard, who is phenomenal (much more so than AJ), knowing how special Donovan can be if he reaches that level on offense and his potential on defense.

[WaveTheWheat80]

The whole age thing is a non-factor, when it is so small. Player make jumps or they don't. Lillard and Brandon Roy, along with pretty much everyone drafted before the late 90's proved that progression is not linear, nor is it dependent on age. The only reality is that being a bit younger will give Mitchell possibly one extra year of prime play (barring injury). Mitchell still has quite a few leaps to make to match Lillard, let alone Harden. He's got to draw fouls better, shoot the ball better, and pass better, if he wants to offensively be what Lillard is right now.

I'm not going to say that Mitchell can't be better than Lillard, or won't be.... but for players that are pretty identical impact-wise at this (comparative rookie years) point, it seems a bit of a reach to project one of them to be an MVP caliber player. I'd say that Mitchell is a slight bit better athlete than young Lillard, but he's also not really proven to be the same level of shooter yet.

I think Mitchell could very well be better than Lillard... but there's nothing to really suggest that there career arcs are significantly different at this point, and I'm really not seeing James Harden MVP levels of good yet.

Hmm. You make valid points, but I do want to bring up one fact. Damian has only had 1 year shooting as well as Donovan is this year. Lillard's best year shooting is .444. Before tonight, Donovan was shooting .442. Lillard does shoot more threes, but Donovan has 2pt% higher than Lillard ever has had (51.3% vs. 50% for Lillard's best season). So while their games are somewhat similar, Donovan's ability to get into the paint and finish separates him from Lillard, whereas Lillard is a better long range shooter at this point.

Absolutely... Mitchell is a much better finisher at this point in their careers. No doubt about it. I doubt Mitchell maintains his gaudy nearly 70% finishing rate permanently, but he is a better finisher... and a worse shooter no doubt. I do think Mitchell has potential to be a better player than Lillard and will readily admit that... but I think the leap to MVP candidate is too extreme at this point. Right now Mitchell is extremely adept at scoring, but he's been pretty horrific at setting up teammates. His usage rate is massive for a rookie, and his assist ratio is fairly terrible for a player with the ball in his hands as much as it is.

I do think Mitchell has a VERY VERY bright future, but he's got a lot to prove as the primary ball handler of an offense IMO. I don't know if you can build an offense around a guard with a usage rate near 30% who's dishing out 3 or so assists a game.

Mitchell is going to be a top notch scorer, that's nearly certain... but to reach an MVP level, he's going to need to take some pretty massive strides as a primary offensive player. Right now, I'd say a Lillard-like trajectory seems the most plausible, maybe a slight bit better... with similar impact, but slightly different strengths and weaknesses. But Harden.... I mean we're talking about a 300% jump in FTA and AST per game. That seems a bit outrageous to "expect."

All I know, is that Mitchell looks like a star, and a safe bet to hit top 15 status in the NBA at some point. Beyond that, it's hard to predict. He's going to be a scorer for sure, already is one. But there's some massive work to be done on getting to the line, shooting more consistently, and setting up teammates before talking about him being anywhere near an MVP candidate in the future.

Roy, you seem like a pretty knowledgable fan and I agree with your points. However, I don't think anyone is calling Mitchell a future MVP. I'll be honest, I don't see the Harden comparision. Mitchell is a Lillard/Wade hybrid.

Now, let's talk about assists. The Jazz offense spreads assists around, which means individual assist numbers go down. This is evident by Rubio's assist numbers this year. So I think you need to take Mitchell's assist numbers in consideration of that.

Sent from my SM-G930T using RealGM mobile app

[Tomjas]

I'm Australian and naturally biased plus I've only been watching the game seriously since my son took up the game about 5 years ago.

Simmons is one of the greatest natural talents that I've ever seen in any sport

6'10" plus, can run, jump, great ball skills and is obviously seriously smart

My father & brother were international sportsmen while I was pro in 2 sports and he's a freak IMO so I'd like to think that I recognise raw athletic ability when I see it

[WaveTheWheat80]

I'm Australian and naturally biased plus I've only been watching the game seriously since my son took up the game about 5 years ago.

Simmons is one of the greatest natural talents that I've ever seen in any sport

6'10" plus, can run, jump, great ball skills and is obviously seriously smart

My father & brother were international sportsmen while I was pro in 2 sports and he's a freak IMO so I'd like to think that I recognise raw athletic ability when I see it

Simmons is great. He has one big flaw. He can't shoot.

[michaelm]

I'm Australian and naturally biased plus I've only been watching the game seriously since my son took up the game about 5 years ago.

Simmons is one of the greatest natural talents that I've ever seen in any sport

6'10" plus, can run, jump, great ball skills and is obviously seriously smart

My father & brother were international sportsmen while I was pro in 2 sports and he's a freak IMO so I'd like to think that I recognise raw athletic ability when I see it

Simmons is great. He has one big flaw. He can't shoot.

Shot a nice fluid midrange jumper today.

I have more confidence than I had previously, I think he can develop an average jumpshot which is all he needs. Being so co-ordinated and skilled otherwise, precociously so in terms of basketball skills other than shooting, It makes no sense to me that he will be unable to shoot at all over an entire career.

[RGM_SU]

Roy, you seem like a pretty knowledgable fan and I agree with your points. However, I don't think anyone is calling Mitchell a future MVP. I'll be honest, I don't see the Harden comparision. Mitchell is a Lillard/Wade hybrid.

At his peak Wade was a legit MVP candidate.

[CoreyGallagher]

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[WaveTheWheat80]

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That's great. He has a lot going for him. He still can't shoot.

[michaelm]

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That's great. He has a lot going for him. He still can't shoot.

The more accurate statement, from this game anyway, is that he doesn't shoot.

[LordCovington33]

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That's great. He has a lot going for him. He still can't shoot.

51.7% FG is pretty good for somebody who can't shoot, right? One of the highest among rookies, so whatever he is doing it must be working.

Notable Rookies
Lonzo Ball: 35.6%
Donovan Mitchell: 44.2%
Jayson Tatum: 48.6%
Laurie M: 42.7%
Kyle Kuzma: 46.1%
DSJ: 40.6%

[LordCovington33]

I'm Australian and naturally biased plus I've only been watching the game seriously since my son took up the game about 5 years ago.

Simmons is one of the greatest natural talents that I've ever seen in any sport

6'10" plus, can run, jump, great ball skills and is obviously seriously smart

My father & brother were international sportsmen while I was pro in 2 sports and he's a freak IMO so I'd like to think that I recognise raw athletic ability when I see it

Simmons is great. He has one big flaw. He can't shoot.

Shot a nice fluid midrange jumper today.

I have more confidence than I had previously, I think he can develop an average jumpshot which is all he needs. Being so co-ordinated and skilled otherwise, precociously so in terms of basketball skills other than shooting, It makes no sense to me that he will be unable to shoot at all over an entire career.

The 3 pt game will come, just not this season. He has been practising it more often lately. During the half time warm-up against the Spurs, he shot 3 (or 4) from 6.

[crazy_me_87]

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That's great. He has a lot going for him. He still can't shoot.

The more accurate statement, from this game anyway, is that he doesn't shoot.

Thats the thing. He is already suprisingly good at Mid Range Shots. (Around the edge of the Paint). He makes those shots very effectively. He took more of them earlier in the Season.. stopped taking them for a big Stretch and now recently has started to take them again.

The most recent Videos of him shooting in Practice show massive Improvement too. His Form is very smooth now.. any hitch that was there before is gone.

For Ben it is a matter of building confidence in his shot and just start taking them. The He "can't shoot" statements are wrong. He can. Right now he just wont most of the time.

I think at the latest next season he will shock alot of people with a suprisingly effective Jumper from Mid Range. I really think his Jumper is further along than most people think. Most people assume because he won't shoot.. he can't shoot. But everything i see from Ben indicates he just needs to be 100% Confident in his Jumper before he really starts using it In- Game more. When that time comes people will be like "Huh? i thought he can't shoot"

[PLO]

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That's great. He has a lot going for him. He still can't shoot.

The more accurate statement, from this game anyway, is that he doesn't shoot.

Didn't you forget to add he's also not a rookie?

[NBA Fan 1234]

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That's great. He has a lot going for him. He still can't shoot.

51.7% FG is pretty good for somebody who can't shoot, right? One of the highest among rookies, so whatever he is doing it must be working.

Notable Rookies
Lonzo Ball: 35.6%
Donovan Mitchell: 44.2%
Jayson Tatum: 48.6%
Laurie M: 42.7%
Kyle Kuzma: 46.1%
DSJ: 40.6%

FG% isn't indicative of one's ability to shoot, unless you'd like to say that Clint Capella and DeAndre Jordan are the two best shooters in the NBA. I like Simmons, but he can't shoot and wasn't able to at LSU either. I do expect him to expand his range as he progresses over the years, but he has work to do.

Didn't you forget to add he's also not a rookie?

He is a rookie.

[PLO]

That's great. He has a lot going for him. He still can't shoot.

51.7% FG is pretty good for somebody who can't shoot, right? One of the highest among rookies, so whatever he is doing it must be working.

Notable Rookies
Lonzo Ball: 35.6%
Donovan Mitchell: 44.2%
Jayson Tatum: 48.6%
Laurie M: 42.7%
Kyle Kuzma: 46.1%
DSJ: 40.6%

FG% isn't indicative of one's ability to shoot, unless you'd like to say that Clint Capella and DeAndre Jordan are the two best shooters in the NBA. I like Simmons, but he can't shoot and wasn't able to at LSU either. I do expect him to expand his range as he progresses over the years, but he has work to do.

Didn't you forget to add he's also not a rookie?

He is a rookie.

Only technically.