Re: Trade Talk (Part Twelve): 2023 Playoff Push Edition

[Slim Tubby]

Gobert and Prince for

Adebayo and Robinson

No picks involved


Or

Gobert, Prince, Conley
For
Adebayo, Robinson, Herro

no picks involved

My advice would be to avoid posting this on the main TTB, especially the second one. You'll lose your posting privileges.

[TimberKat]

Gobert and Prince for

Adebayo and Robinson

No picks involved


Or

Gobert, Prince, Conley
For
Adebayo, Robinson, Herro

no picks involved

My advice would be to avoid posting this on the main TTB, especially the second one. You'll lose your posting privileges.

I was hoping Heat would miss the playoff and start a fire sale. I believe the only two pieces they wanted to keep would be Adebayo and Herro. If they run it back with Butler one more time, You may get Herro for Gobert but no Bam.

[TimberKat]

I’m all for running it back, because I want to see what the team looks like - I need more data.

Dane recently made a lot of noise about the stats this year when Towns and Gobert played together. In those minutes, the team had a much better defensive rating than the best team in the NBA, and a worse offensive rating than the worst team, which was used to indict the pairing.

However, I think he is falling into the logical mistake of seeing an effect, and choosing the cause. Correlation does not equal causation.

First, these are team based stats, so the entire team plays a part in a successful offense or defense. But even more important, towns and Gobert only played together in 26 games, and 20 of them were at the start of the season! Remember that time. Towns started underweight from the hospital, Gobert was beat up by playing for the French National team. But more than this, nobody had time to figure out how to play with Gobert. DLo refused to change, and kept throwing bounce passes into Rudy’s knees, and Ant continually waved him off, refused the screen and went one on one.

This is where the bulk of the data comes from .. those last six games at season’s end didn’t look too bad, and we’ll have Mike Conley and SloMo (and hopefully the rest of the team), better prepared to play team ball. I don’t know if the experiment will work, but I am not going to dismiss it based on biased data, that might not represent what our true future could be.

There is a lot of good points here. I really don't think Town was in good shape all year due to the pre season illness and leg injury. You will see a stronger and more active Towns NBA next year. We will have a much better stats by mid season.

[minimus]

I get enamored with trades and moves as much as anyone but I expect a quiet off-season.

Re-sign Reid [3/40, Player Option Year 3]
Re-sign Naw [3/24, Year 3 Unguaranteed]
Extend McDaniels [4/94]
Extend ANT [4/Rookie Max]
Trade Prince/2nd for Delon Wright

Conley/Wright
Edwards/NAW/Moore
McDaniels/Minott
KAT/SlowMo
Gobert/Reid

Yeah, my slightly tweaked scenario:

Re-sign Reid [4/55, Team Option Year 4]
Re-sign NAW [3/18, Team Option Year 3]
Re-sign Garza [3/6, Team Option Year 2, 3]
Extend McDaniels [5/120] - according to new CBA we can offer 5 year contract
Extend ANT [4/Rookie Max]
Trade 2nd for Payton Pritchard
Draft Jaime Jaquez (younger Joe Ingles type of comboforward)

Gobert/Reid/Garza
KAT/SlowMo/Minott
McDaniels/TP/Jaquez
Edwards/NAW/Moore
Conley/Pritchard/NAW

+ three two way contracts

[shangrila]

I’m all for running it back, because I want to see what the team looks like - I need more data.

Dane recently made a lot of noise about the stats this year when Towns and Gobert played together. In those minutes, the team had a much better defensive rating than the best team in the NBA, and a worse offensive rating than the worst team, which was used to indict the pairing.

However, I think he is falling into the logical mistake of seeing an effect, and choosing the cause. Correlation does not equal causation.

First, these are team based stats, so the entire team plays a part in a successful offense or defense. But even more important, towns and Gobert only played together in 26 games, and 20 of them were at the start of the season! Remember that time. Towns started underweight from the hospital, Gobert was beat up by playing for the French National team. But more than this, nobody had time to figure out how to play with Gobert. DLo refused to change, and kept throwing bounce passes into Rudy’s knees, and Ant continually waved him off, refused the screen and went one on one.

This is where the bulk of the data comes from .. those last six games at season’s end didn’t look too bad, and we’ll have Mike Conley and SloMo (and hopefully the rest of the team), better prepared to play team ball. I don’t know if the experiment will work, but I am not going to dismiss it based on biased data, that might not represent what our true future could be.

I've started tuning Dane out at this point. It's so clear that both him and Britt didn't/don't like the Gobert trade and so end up looking for evidence to back that up.

[Slim Tubby]

I’m all for running it back, because I want to see what the team looks like - I need more data.

Dane recently made a lot of noise about the stats this year when Towns and Gobert played together. In those minutes, the team had a much better defensive rating than the best team in the NBA, and a worse offensive rating than the worst team, which was used to indict the pairing.

However, I think he is falling into the logical mistake of seeing an effect, and choosing the cause. Correlation does not equal causation.

First, these are team based stats, so the entire team plays a part in a successful offense or defense. But even more important, towns and Gobert only played together in 26 games, and 20 of them were at the start of the season! Remember that time. Towns started underweight from the hospital, Gobert was beat up by playing for the French National team. But more than this, nobody had time to figure out how to play with Gobert. DLo refused to change, and kept throwing bounce passes into Rudy’s knees, and Ant continually waved him off, refused the screen and went one on one.

This is where the bulk of the data comes from .. those last six games at season’s end didn’t look too bad, and we’ll have Mike Conley and SloMo (and hopefully the rest of the team), better prepared to play team ball. I don’t know if the experiment will work, but I am not going to dismiss it based on biased data, that might not represent what our true future could be.

I've started tuning Dane out at this point. It's so clear that both him and Britt didn't/don't like the Gobert trade and so end up looking for evidence to back that up.

Me too...their podcast has become quite redundant regarding this narrative and that's quite boring to listen to.

[Note30]

I've started tuning Dane out at this point. It's so clear that both him and Britt didn't/don't like the Gobert trade and so end up looking for evidence to back that up.

Most people didn't/don't.

[Klomp]

I've started tuning Dane out at this point. It's so clear that both him and Britt didn't/don't like the Gobert trade and so end up looking for evidence to back that up.

It's especially when the two of them are together. Dane's doom and gloom side comes out when Britt's on the pod.

[urinesane]

I've started tuning Dane out at this point. It's so clear that both him and Britt didn't/don't like the Gobert trade and so end up looking for evidence to back that up.

It's especially when the two of them are together. Dane's doom and gloom side comes out when Britt's on the pod.

He has a big vocab, but he's also a MN curmudgeon at heart.

[urinesane]

I've started tuning Dane out at this point. It's so clear that both him and Britt didn't/don't like the Gobert trade and so end up looking for evidence to back that up.

Most people didn't/don't.

Why do you have to pick either? Do you have to like or dislike something?

I didn't like losing PatBev and Vando (but I was super relieved when I found out they kept Jaden). Otherwise, I'm kind of just open minded to it. Didn't decide to hate it or love it, though I do enjoy the idea of the franchise taking big swings and trying to shirk the status quo (which imo is the only way a small market franchise can really compete for championships in the NBA).

Just because a swing doesn't always connect doesn't mean you shouldn't have swung.

[shrink]

I rolled my eyes listening to the last podcast when Britt said something like, “The Wolves aren’t stupid enough not to agree with me.”

This is like elementary school logic! “You’re not stupid are you? So you must agree with me!”

I actually enjoy hearing different opinions, because it challenges me to decide if my opinions are right or wrong, or if the info I’m processing might be wrong, biased, or incomplete. But no adult, who’s job for 40 years has been to listen to all sides, should be making a statement like that, whatever their opinion.

[Norseman79]

Honestly, I am typically pretty skeptical any time the team does stuff I don't like, and usually want a quick trigger to fix it.

Would I trade Gobert for pennies on the dollar? Yes. Why? Because time is the biggest asset teams have and time with Ant is ticking. Will the Wolves trade him? I can't see it. What is honest value for Rudy? Maybe a framework like Rudy to Hawks, Collins to MN and Capella to Dallas...(hypothetical). The answer is mostly to create cap space and land competent players that fit. (Collins is debatable).

Would I trade Kat? Yes. Why? Best chance to recoup assets and fill out roster around Ant. Towns when healthy and clicking is an elite player, but how often does that happen and how often does his on court demeanor/attitude etc negate it? Will the Wolves? No. Perhaps eventually, but I see this as a mistake as I only see his value dropping as he ages, continues in this system, and could potentially get hurt again. What is Kats value? I think a young prospect or two plus picks is ideal. In theory it is likely to be a 3 team type of deal. The odds of getting a Haliburton, Barnes, Cunningham type of player for Kat are not happening. But, those are prototypes at PG and F I would look at.

Again, what I would do, not what the Wolves will do.

Wolves out: Towns, Gobert, Prince
In: Suggs, Carter, Collins, Bertans, 23,25, and 27 first

Magic in: Towns
Out: Suggs, Carter, Harris 23 Chicago first, 25 Denver first,

Hawks in: Gobert, Harris
Out: Collins, Capella

Mavs in: Capella, Prince
Out: Bertans, 2027 protected first

I figured a four team would just be easier to work basic structure then walking through two separate deals. This allows them to resign Naz as well.

PG - Conley, Suggs, Moore
SG - Ant, Naw
SF - McDaniels, Anderson, Minott
PF - Collins, Bertans
C - Naz, Carter, Garza

Cap space and draft picks also.

[urinesane]

Honestly, I am typically pretty skeptical any time the team does stuff I don't like, and usually want a quick trigger to fix it.

Would I trade Gobert for pennies on the dollar? Yes. Why? Because time is the biggest asset teams have and time with Ant is ticking. Will the Wolves trade him? I can't see it. What is honest value for Rudy? Maybe a framework like Rudy to Hawks, Collins to MN and Capella to Dallas...(hypothetical). The answer is mostly to create cap space and land competent players that fit. (Collins is debatable).

Would I trade Kat? Yes. Why? Best chance to recoup assets and fill out roster around Ant. Towns when healthy and clicking is an elite player, but how often does that happen and how often does his on court demeanor/attitude etc negate it? Will the Wolves? No. Perhaps eventually, but I see this as a mistake as I only see his value dropping as he ages, continues in this system, and could potentially get hurt again. What is Kats value? I think a young prospect or two plus picks is ideal. In theory it is likely to be a 3 team type of deal. The odds of getting a Haliburton, Barnes, Cunningham type of player for Kat are not happening. But, those are prototypes at PG and F I would look at.

Again, what I would do, not what the Wolves will do.

Wolves out: Towns, Gobert, Prince
In: Suggs, Carter, Collins, Bertans, 23,25, and 27 first

Magic in: Towns
Out: Suggs, Carter, Harris 23 Chicago first, 25 Denver first,

Hawks in: Gobert, Harris
Out: Collins, Capella

Mavs in: Capella, Prince
Out: Bertans, 2027 protected first

I figured a four team would just be easier to work basic structure then walking through two separate deals. This allows them to resign Naz as well.

PG - Conley, Suggs, Moore
SG - Ant, Naw
SF - McDaniels, Anderson, Minott
PF - Collins, Bertans
C - Naz, Carter, Garza

Cap space and draft picks also.

The important part about time when it comes to Ant is "are we winning during his time here or losing?". I think the roster you created with those trades loses more and has a lower ceiling than the current roster. The valuable thing outside of just stats with Gobert is how he raises the floor to the point that we still made the playoffs with horrible injury luck this year.

If you get too focused on assets and picks you effectively waste the early part of Ants career by having him lose more games for the hope of wins in the future, but that's what we've always done... and it's never worked. Usually it leads to the star wanting to go somewhere they can win. If you can create a winning culture early it give the star hope that they can win here with some tweaks (and not a full revamp).

Ant/Jaden winning and playing meaningful games early and often is much more valuable longterm than perceive flexibility based on assets (it's pretty easy to accumulate picks down the road if you need em, but it's a lot tougher to put together a core mixed with young and old that can win consistently.)

[Norseman79]

Honestly, I am typically pretty skeptical any time the team does stuff I don't like, and usually want a quick trigger to fix it.

Would I trade Gobert for pennies on the dollar? Yes. Why? Because time is the biggest asset teams have and time with Ant is ticking. Will the Wolves trade him? I can't see it. What is honest value for Rudy? Maybe a framework like Rudy to Hawks, Collins to MN and Capella to Dallas...(hypothetical). The answer is mostly to create cap space and land competent players that fit. (Collins is debatable).

Would I trade Kat? Yes. Why? Best chance to recoup assets and fill out roster around Ant. Towns when healthy and clicking is an elite player, but how often does that happen and how often does his on court demeanor/attitude etc negate it? Will the Wolves? No. Perhaps eventually, but I see this as a mistake as I only see his value dropping as he ages, continues in this system, and could potentially get hurt again. What is Kats value? I think a young prospect or two plus picks is ideal. In theory it is likely to be a 3 team type of deal. The odds of getting a Haliburton, Barnes, Cunningham type of player for Kat are not happening. But, those are prototypes at PG and F I would look at.

Again, what I would do, not what the Wolves will do.

Wolves out: Towns, Gobert, Prince
In: Suggs, Carter, Collins, Bertans, 23,25, and 27 first

Magic in: Towns
Out: Suggs, Carter, Harris 23 Chicago first, 25 Denver first,

Hawks in: Gobert, Harris
Out: Collins, Capella

Mavs in: Capella, Prince
Out: Bertans, 2027 protected first

I figured a four team would just be easier to work basic structure then walking through two separate deals. This allows them to resign Naz as well.

PG - Conley, Suggs, Moore
SG - Ant, Naw
SF - McDaniels, Anderson, Minott
PF - Collins, Bertans
C - Naz, Carter, Garza

Cap space and draft picks also.

The important part about time when it comes to Ant is "are we winning during his time here or losing?". I think the roster you created with those trades loses more and has a lower ceiling than the current roster. The valuable thing outside of just stats with Gobert is how he raises the floor to the point that we still made the playoffs with horrible injury luck this year.

If you get too focused on assets and picks you effectively waste the early part of Ants career by having him lose more games for the hope of wins in the future, but that's what we've always done... and it's never worked. Usually it leads to the star wanting to go somewhere they can win. If you can create a winning culture early it give the star hope that they can win here with some tweaks (and not a full revamp).

Ant/Jaden winning and playing meaningful games early and often is much more valuable longterm than perceive flexibility based on assets (it's pretty easy to accumulate picks down the road if you need em, but it's a lot tougher to put together a core mixed with young and old that can win consistently.)

I completely agree with what you're saying. Which is why I thought it was important to make sure Conley stays and Anderson stays. In addition, Ant, Jaden and Naz have been part of winning cultures now the past couple years. At some point you have to see if they're ready to take that step. The players that I had come back in those trades, again all hypothetical, but compliment our current roster. I think I agree with your theory, my question is at what point are they old enough to not need those other players around them?

[TimberKat]

Honestly, I am typically pretty skeptical any time the team does stuff I don't like, and usually want a quick trigger to fix it.

Would I trade Gobert for pennies on the dollar? Yes. Why? Because time is the biggest asset teams have and time with Ant is ticking.

Would I trade Kat? Yes. Why? Best chance to recoup assets and fill out roster around Ant.
Again, what I would do, not what the Wolves will do.

Wolves out: Towns, Gobert, Prince
In: Suggs, Carter, Collins, Bertans, 23,25, and 27 first

Mavs in: Capella, Prince
Out: Bertans, 2027 protected first

Cap space and draft picks also.

Why are we trading Gobert for pennies? Because he and Ant can't exist on the same team?

For the assets Wolves get in return, I don't see any of them will be an All Star any time soon. I see a better chance Towns or Gobert return to All Star form next year or in the future. They were both all stars last year and not even close to decline age. Suggs doesn't play PG. The few times I did watched Magics, Carter didn't stand out. The 23 1st has zero lottery value (assuming the trade happens after lottery and Orlando won't trade if it's a 1 or 2). The 27 is protected (how deep?). The only lottery ticket you get is the 25 Denver 1st pick. Betrans is pointless and overpaid. Collins is declining (if you think Gobert or Towns is declining). The 25 or 27 picks doesn't line up with Ant's timeline. What could you get will the salary slot and those picks? I actually think you lose salary slot with the trade and I don't see it as better roster around Ant.

Supposedly, if we already had what you suggested and A GM ask me: give us Suggs, Carter, Collins, Bertans, Chi's 23, DEN's 25 and DAL's Protected 27 and we will give you Towns and Gobert. I would take it in a heart beat.

[younggunsmn]

I’m all for running it back, because I want to see what the team looks like - I need more data.

Dane recently made a lot of noise about the stats this year when Towns and Gobert played together. In those minutes, the team had a much better defensive rating than the best team in the NBA, and a worse offensive rating than the worst team, which was used to indict the pairing.

However, I think he is falling into the logical mistake of seeing an effect, and choosing the cause. Correlation does not equal causation.

First, these are team based stats, so the entire team plays a part in a successful offense or defense. But even more important, towns and Gobert only played together in 26 games, and 20 of them were at the start of the season! Remember that time. Towns started underweight from the hospital, Gobert was beat up by playing for the French National team. But more than this, nobody had time to figure out how to play with Gobert. DLo refused to change, and kept throwing bounce passes into Rudy’s knees, and Ant continually waved him off, refused the screen and went one on one.

This is where the bulk of the data comes from .. those last six games at season’s end didn’t look too bad, and we’ll have Mike Conley and SloMo (and hopefully the rest of the team), better prepared to play team ball. I don’t know if the experiment will work, but I am not going to dismiss it based on biased data, that might not represent what our true future could be.

I've started tuning Dane out at this point. It's so clear that both him and Britt didn't/don't like the Gobert trade and so end up looking for evidence to back that up.

Me too...their podcast has become quite redundant regarding this narrative and that's quite boring to listen to.

You aren't going to find a single local guy saying anything good about it, even Doogie.
That all these guys whose livelihoods depend on access to the team and the people who made that decision are saying this openly should tell you something.
It's one thing to talk about something Gersson Rosas or David Khan did and another to talk about the sitting GM.
They've gone from "This is how they are going to make this work" all last summer to talking about all the data from this year that says it did not work.
As long as their opinions are based on something real I have no problem either way.
Dane has had some insightful stuff this year about scheme and team chemistry and I appreciate that he understands the game better and is willing to dig a little deeper and go against the narrative the team is trying to put out there when its called for.

[shangrila]

I've started tuning Dane out at this point. It's so clear that both him and Britt didn't/don't like the Gobert trade and so end up looking for evidence to back that up.

Me too...their podcast has become quite redundant regarding this narrative and that's quite boring to listen to.

You aren't going to find a single local guy saying anything good about it, even Doogie.
That all these guys whose livelihoods depend on access to the team and the people who made that decision are saying this openly should tell you something.
It's one thing to talk about something Gersson Rosas or David Khan did and another to talk about the sitting GM.
They've gone from "This is how they are going to make this work" all last summer to talking about all the data from this year that says it did not work.
As long as their opinions are based on something real I have no problem either way.
Dane has had some insightful stuff this year about scheme and team chemistry and I appreciate that he understands the game better and is willing to dig a little deeper and go against the narrative the team is trying to put out there when its called for.

I've noticed them (seemingly purposefully) skewing the stats they present to back up their present opinions though and that's what I disagree with.

Realistically there's little if anything that can be gleaned from this season, either positive or negative, because the sample sizes are too small. Aside from Ant becoming a superstar and McDaniels becoming All-Defence, that is.

[minimus]

GSW IN: Wendell Carter Jr., Harris
GSW OUT: Poole

Why for GSW: run it back with one of the best mobile defensive big in NBA

Carter/Looney
Green/Kuminga
Wiggins/Thompson
Thompson/Harris/Moody
Curry/DDV


ORL IN: Towns, Moore, Knight, Poole
ORL OUT: Carter Jr., Isaac, Harris, Wagner, Suggs, two FRPs

Why for ORL: make next step, balance roster, build around Towns-Banchero and five-out

Towns/Bitadze
Banchero/Knight/Okeke
Moore/Bol
Poole/
Fultz/Anthony

MIN IN: Isaac, Wagner, Suggs, two FRPs
MIN OUT: Towns

Why for MIN: balance roster, find future PG and comboforward

Gobert/Reid/Garza
Wagner/Anderson/Minott
MCD/TP
Edwards/NAW
Conley/Suggs/JMac

[Mamba4Goat]

GSW IN: Wendell Carter Jr., Harris
GSW OUT: Poole

Why for GSW: run it back with one of the best mobile defensive big in NBA

Carter/Looney
Green/Kuminga
Wiggins/Thompson
Thompson/Harris/Moody
Curry/DDV


ORL IN: Towns, Moore, Knight, Poole
ORL OUT: Carter Jr., Isaac, Harris, Wagner, Suggs, two FRPs

Why for ORL: make next step, balance roster, build around Towns-Banchero and five-out

Towns/Bitadze
Banchero/Knight/Okeke
Moore/Bol
Poole/
Fultz/Anthony

MIN IN: Isaac, Wagner, Suggs, two FRPs
MIN OUT: Towns

Why for MIN: balance roster, find future PG and comboforward

Gobert/Reid/Garza
Wagner/Anderson/Minott
MCD/TP
Edwards/NAW
Conley/Suggs/JMac

I don’t think Orlando entertains a Wagner for KAT swap regardless of value. Adding more to that is likely a total nonstarter.

[TimberKat]

GSW IN: Wendell Carter Jr., Harris
GSW OUT: Poole

Why for GSW: run it back with one of the best mobile defensive big in NBA

Carter/Looney
Green/Kuminga
Wiggins/Thompson
Thompson/Harris/Moody
Curry/DDV


ORL IN: Towns, Moore, Knight, Poole
ORL OUT: Carter Jr., Isaac, Harris, Wagner, Suggs, two FRPs

Why for ORL: make next step, balance roster, build around Towns-Banchero and five-out

Towns/Bitadze
Banchero/Knight/Okeke
Moore/Bol
Poole/
Fultz/Anthony

MIN IN: Isaac, Wagner, Suggs, two FRPs
MIN OUT: Towns

Why for MIN: balance roster, find future PG and comboforward

Gobert/Reid/Garza
Wagner/Anderson/Minott
MCD/TP
Edwards/NAW
Conley/Suggs/JMac

I don’t think Orlando entertains a Wagner for KAT swap regardless of value. Adding more to that is likely a total nonstarter.

We need an all star coming back for Towns. The older Wagner and Suggs are role players right now and I don't see all star potential. The picks are useless unless you you a better trade line up. So no from Wolves. If Banchero is involved, then I am interested. Also don't see why Wagner is valued so highly by Orlando.