2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[DusterBuster]

Let’s all hope that any rumor that gets floated about the Blazers wanting to resign Simons are purely to help up his value to other GMs.

I’ll say this…

I thought Simons seemed pretty glib in his exit interview—He wasn’t acting like somebody who expects to be moved over the summer. (See Grant)

It would be a massive, massive mistake to resign Simons. The fallout would be nuclear in a couple of years.

You can’t have 3 starting guards and also have 2 starting forwards. Resigning Simons would be admitting drafting Scoot was a mistake. In no world does an organization purposely draft a backup at #3. Having Scoot enter into his 3rd season coming off the bench would be proof of roster mismanagement.

This was the sense I got as well.

Ant seemed totally content in his post-exit interviews, no cryptic comments about how hard losing has been, etc. Contrast that to Grant who clearly had big "get me the **** outta here" vibes with his interview and I think it's clear, at the very least, Simons isn't going to be demanding a trade this summer. Without a trade demand, I just don't see Cronin moving him aside getting crazy, 2 FRP kind of return.

Then that leaves an extension... Cronin won't want to let Ant walk for nothing. The team and FO has shown zero intent to actually want to turn the keys over to Scoot, the fact you've heard more about a Simons extension than any real smoke about a Simons trade should speak volumns.

I'm fully in agreement with you, I think it's insane ... absolutely **** bat **** bonkers insane ... this team made that #3 pick to take Scoot, alienate Lillard, and then proceeded to do nothing to ever give him a real shot at being a lead PG in this league 2 seasons. It's why at this point, if Scoot still holds any value, trade him this summer instead of waste a 3rd season of his career bringing him off the bench... at least give the kid a shot to make something of himself since you're clearly not doing that here.

[tester551]

the fact you've heard more about a Simons extension than any real smoke about a Simons trade should speak volumns.

Where has there been ANY creditable discussion of a Simons extension? I haven't seen/heard any discussion of such.

There have been a few somewhat creditable discussions that included Simons' name as a potential trade target. Not enough to really get excited about - but at least there are SOME discussions.

[zzaj]

Let’s all hope that any rumor that gets floated about the Blazers wanting to resign Simons are purely to help up his value to other GMs.

I’ll say this…

I thought Simons seemed pretty glib in his exit interview—He wasn’t acting like somebody who expects to be moved over the summer. (See Grant)

It would be a massive, massive mistake to resign Simons. The fallout would be nuclear in a couple of years.

You can’t have 3 starting guards and also have 2 starting forwards. Resigning Simons would be admitting drafting Scoot was a mistake. In no world does an organization purposely draft a backup at #3. Having Scoot enter into his 3rd season coming off the bench would be proof of roster mismanagement.

This was the sense I got as well.

Ant seemed totally content in his post-exit interviews, no cryptic comments about how hard losing has been, etc. Contrast that to Grant who clearly had big "get me the **** outta here" vibes with his interview and I think it's clear, at the very least, Simons isn't going to be demanding a trade this summer. Without a trade demand, I just don't see Cronin moving him aside getting crazy, 2 FRP kind of return.

Then that leaves an extension... Cronin won't want to let Ant walk for nothing. The team and FO has shown zero intent to actually want to turn the keys over to Scoot, the fact you've heard more about a Simons extension than any real smoke about a Simons trade should speak volumns.

I'm fully in agreement with you, I think it's insane ... absolutely **** bat **** bonkers insane ... this team made that #3 pick to take Scoot, alienate Lillard, and then proceeded to do nothing to ever give him a real shot at being a lead PG in this league 2 seasons. It's why at this point, if Scoot still holds any value, trade him this summer instead of waste a 3rd season of his career bringing him off the bench... at least give the kid a shot to make something of himself since you're clearly not doing that here.

Yeah, the Lillard component is a big piece here also...good point.

I get why they drafted Scoot even if I didn't love the pick--Lillard was making waves and they probably saw a future replacement PG in Scoot in case Lillard full stop asked for a trade. I also get why they have been slow-rolling his development since the debacle of handing him the keys on day 1. It seems to have worked. The Scoot that we saw toward the end of last season looked very different than the Scoot that didn't belong on an NBA court in his first games...they gave it two years. I think that 20 game stretch at the end of the season where he averaged 15/5/3 with a 2:1 ATO and shooting 47% from 2 and 39% from 3, shows that he DOES belong on an NBA court and is ready to work on consistency within a defined role...not as a fill-in player off the bench.

[DusterBuster]

Let’s all hope that any rumor that gets floated about the Blazers wanting to resign Simons are purely to help up his value to other GMs.

I’ll say this…

I thought Simons seemed pretty glib in his exit interview—He wasn’t acting like somebody who expects to be moved over the summer. (See Grant)

It would be a massive, massive mistake to resign Simons. The fallout would be nuclear in a couple of years.

You can’t have 3 starting guards and also have 2 starting forwards. Resigning Simons would be admitting drafting Scoot was a mistake. In no world does an organization purposely draft a backup at #3. Having Scoot enter into his 3rd season coming off the bench would be proof of roster mismanagement.

This was the sense I got as well.

Ant seemed totally content in his post-exit interviews, no cryptic comments about how hard losing has been, etc. Contrast that to Grant who clearly had big "get me the **** outta here" vibes with his interview and I think it's clear, at the very least, Simons isn't going to be demanding a trade this summer. Without a trade demand, I just don't see Cronin moving him aside getting crazy, 2 FRP kind of return.

Then that leaves an extension... Cronin won't want to let Ant walk for nothing. The team and FO has shown zero intent to actually want to turn the keys over to Scoot, the fact you've heard more about a Simons extension than any real smoke about a Simons trade should speak volumns.

I'm fully in agreement with you, I think it's insane ... absolutely **** bat **** bonkers insane ... this team made that #3 pick to take Scoot, alienate Lillard, and then proceeded to do nothing to ever give him a real shot at being a lead PG in this league 2 seasons. It's why at this point, if Scoot still holds any value, trade him this summer instead of waste a 3rd season of his career bringing him off the bench... at least give the kid a shot to make something of himself since you're clearly not doing that here.

Yeah, the Lillard component is a big piece here also...good point.

I get why they drafted Scoot even if I didn't love the pick--Lillard was making waves and they probably saw a future replacement PG in Scoot in case Lillard full stop asked for a trade. I also get why they have been slow-rolling his development since the debacle of handing him the keys on day 1. It seems to have worked. The Scoot that we saw toward the end of last season looked very different than the Scoot that didn't belong on an NBA court in his first games...they gave it two years. I think that 20 game stretch at the end of the season where he averaged 15/5/3 with a 2:1 ATO and shooting 47% from 2 and 39% from 3, shows that he DOES belong on an NBA court and is ready to work on consistency within a defined role...not as a fill-in player off the bench.

I agree totally. But while you and I believe he's ready for it, the team itself isn't giving off that smoke that that's their opinion at all. In fact, all indications from One Center Court is that it's exactly the opposite.

[Walton1one]

So rumblings are that Simons is staying and may get an extension.

Where are you hearing / seeing this?

First, there was an article\mailbag by Highkin, where he speculated about POR could re-sign Simons, he mentions a team friendly number, I am skeptical about that given Cronin's past contracts and I seriously doubt Simons takes less than he is making now or a guy like Sharpe.

Rank the following outcomes based on what you think is most likely. Anfernee Simons is:
a. Traded
b. Signs an extension
c. Remains on the Blazers through the year, and becomes a free agent.

— Ross M.
I'd put A and B about even, with C behind them.

I'll have more next week about the various contract decisions the Blazers will have to make up and down the roster, but I don't think either the team or Simons wants to go into the season without any clarity on the future.

I could see a Simons trade happening, especially if they decide to truly go all-in on Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe as their backcourt. But Simons is also one of the current team captains (along with Myles Turner) of the Taj Gibson-Josh Smith-C.J. McCollum team of "very good but non-All-Star players with the most consecutive years being in trade rumors without actually getting traded." So if you told me they extended him at a team-friendly number, I wouldn't think it was the most shocking thing in the world, either.

https://www.rosegardenreport.com/mailbag-what-will-the-trail-blazers-do-with-anfernee-simons/

This matches with what was on another podcast, where they talked about POR goals for next year to make the playoffs, and trading away Simons would be going against those goals (taking a step back) and exposing a weakness that exists already (shooting) and making it worse.

Then you had Blazer PR boy, Marang, commenting about it yesterday (starts @ 4:30 mark), basically saying he'd be more surprised if they traded Simons than if they gave him an extension and then trying to justify how a $30-35mil/years salary is completely reasonable for Simons.

FWIW, both of these guys are idiots. They then go on to talk about how ORL 1st\Black + filler is not enough for Simons and how it would have to be Franz Wagner for POR to consider this deal. They seriously discussed that....

Now I am not a fan of Marang at all, I think he is an idiot, but he is an idiot who seems to get some information from POR front office (at least what they want him to say), so is he just guessing? Maybe, or maybe he has had enough conversations with the front office to speculate, like Highkin that Cronin\Bert is not interested in moving Simons for anything that is not a ridiculous offer (which is mind boggingly delusional)

Watch on YouTube

Then you have, Blazer twitter posting a lot of images\posts\videos about Simons over the last 24 hours. Probably nothing, they posted on other players as well but kind of odd to post that much on a guy whose future with the team is not certain?

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Again, I don't take the twitter posts as anything necessarily, just odd, but both Highkin\Marang (and others) speculating Simons resigning is worthy of note. I am just saying, prepare for it, Cronin\Bert have not failed to disappoint yet...

What I was posting was if they do resign Simons to a $30-35mil number (20% of the cap is reasonable for a player of his caliber says Danny Marang), then how does the rest of this play out?

Because you can't pay Ant that for 3-4 more years AND pay Sharpe AND pay your two most important players Camara & Avdija larger amounts, both of whom POR needs to CREATE cap space in order to pay them well above what their current salaries are at AND pay Grant, let alone Ayton or any other player of note (need 13 players minimum), then pay Scoot his extension a year later and STILL be under the tax, let alone the 1st apron, just looking at the math it is not feasible, unless Cronin can jettison Grant (for expiring) AND most likely get a few of these guys on team friendly deals which he has shown himself so far to be incapable of doing.

[dckingsfan]

After we played out the season with Simons and Grant not being traded due to a hot stretch against bad/injured teams I've kind of given up expecting this front office to know what the team needs to do to be successful over the next couple years.

It's going to be hard to catch OKC out west for a few years anyways but maybe we'll have a chance in the 2030's.

With all the OKC picks (and how well they pick), maybe the 40s?

[Sinobas]

I really doubt Cronin will resign Ant. He spent a #3 pick on Scoot, and he did not draft Simons. GMs are highly biased towards players they acquired, particularly ones they spent a high pick on.

But I do think Joe wanted to evaluate the 2 another year, in case Simons "broke out" and Scoot made no progress. But Simons did not out play Scoot last year, despite being much more experienced. I think Scoot was a tad bit better actually.


To spend a bunch of money on a no defense combo guard with below average shooting efficiency would be absurd.

[zzaj]

I really doubt Cronin will resign Ant. He spent a #3 pick on Scoot, and he did not draft Simons. GMs are highly biased towards players they acquired, particularly ones they spent a high pick on.

But I do think Joe wanted to evaluate the 2 another year, in case Simons "broke out" and Scoot made no progress. But Simons did not out play Scoot last year, despite being much more experienced. I think Scoot was a tad bit better actually.


To spend a bunch of money on a no defense combo guard with below average shooting efficiency would be absurd.

From your mouth to G-D's ears...

[tester551]

So rumblings are that Simons is staying and may get an extension.

Where are you hearing / seeing this?

First, there was an article\mailbag by Highkin, where he speculated about POR could re-sign Simons, he mentions a team friendly number, I am skeptical about that given Cronin's past contracts and I seriously doubt Simons takes less than he is making now or a guy like Sharpe.

Rank the following outcomes based on what you think is most likely. Anfernee Simons is:
a. Traded
b. Signs an extension
c. Remains on the Blazers through the year, and becomes a free agent.

— Ross M.
I'd put A and B about even, with C behind them.

I'll have more next week about the various contract decisions the Blazers will have to make up and down the roster, but I don't think either the team or Simons wants to go into the season without any clarity on the future.

I could see a Simons trade happening, especially if they decide to truly go all-in on Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe as their backcourt. But Simons is also one of the current team captains (along with Myles Turner) of the Taj Gibson-Josh Smith-C.J. McCollum team of "very good but non-All-Star players with the most consecutive years being in trade rumors without actually getting traded." So if you told me they extended him at a team-friendly number, I wouldn't think it was the most shocking thing in the world, either.

https://www.rosegardenreport.com/mailbag-what-will-the-trail-blazers-do-with-anfernee-simons/

This matches with what was on another podcast, where they talked about POR goals for next year to make the playoffs, and trading away Simons would be going against those goals (taking a step back) and exposing a weakness that exists already (shooting) and making it worse.

Then you had Blazer PR boy, Marang, commenting about it yesterday (starts @ 4:30 mark), basically saying he'd be more surprised if they traded Simons than if they gave him an extension and then trying to justify how a $30-35mil/years salary is completely reasonable for Simons.

FWIW, both of these guys are idiots. They then go on to talk about how ORL 1st\Black + filler is not enough for Simons and how it would have to be Franz Wagner for POR to consider this deal. They seriously discussed that....

Now I am not a fan of Marang at all, I think he is an idiot, but he is an idiot who seems to get some information from POR front office (at least what they want him to say), so is he just guessing? Maybe, or maybe he has had enough conversations with the front office to speculate, like Highkin that Cronin\Bert is not interested in moving Simons for anything that is not a ridiculous offer (which is mind boggingly delusional)

Watch on YouTube

Then you have, Blazer twitter posting a lot of images\posts\videos about Simons over the last 24 hours. Probably nothing, they posted on other players as well but kind of odd to post that much on a guy whose future with the team is not certain?

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Again, I don't take the twitter posts as anything necessarily, just odd, but both Highkin\Marang (and others) speculating Simons resigning is worthy of note. I am just saying, prepare for it, Cronin\Bert have not failed to disappoint yet...

What I was posting was if they do resign Simons to a $30-35mil number (20% of the cap is reasonable for a player of his caliber says Danny Marang), then how does the rest of this play out?

Because you can't pay Ant that for 3-4 more years AND pay Sharpe AND pay your two most important players Camara & Avdija larger amounts, both of whom POR needs to CREATE cap space in order to pay them well above what their current salaries are at AND pay Grant, let alone Ayton or any other player of note (need 13 players minimum), then pay Scoot his extension a year later and STILL be under the tax, let alone the 1st apron, just looking at the math it is not feasible, unless Cronin can jettison Grant (for expiring) AND most likely get a few of these guys on team friendly deals which he has shown himself so far to be incapable of doing.

Thanks for providing the context.
I'd file all this under baseless speculation still.

Highkin readily admits that he doesn't have much/any inside knowledge. Even in the article you linked to he stated:

Do you think there will be any changes to the coaching staff or will they stay pat?

— Jason M.

I wouldn't expect a massive overhaul like there was last summer. When the Blazers decided last offseason to both not fire Chauncey Billups and not pick up his fifth-year option, the way they instead shook things up was by changing out about half of his coaching staff.

This obviously has already been proven false....

Marang has no credibility in my eyes. So will not address his comments at all... other than to say if anyone thinks Simons is worth paying more than ~$25M/year (ideally closer to $20M) is a good idea -> they are off their rocker.

[zzaj]

Yeah, Tester fully agree...in terms of contract. Here's 25 year old Simons per 36 last year:

21/3/5.3
2pt: 49%
3pt: 36% (3.4 MPG)
DBPM: -1.5

Simons salary: 25.8M
-----

Here's another 25 year old player:

18/4.3/5.1
2pt: 44%
3pt: 32% (2.3 MPG)
DBPM: -0.2

Salary: 2.1M
------

So, I ask Blazer fans--yeah it's a simplified look...but is 1 more 3pt shot made per game vs. much, much, worse defense worth 20M+ dollars?

Simons is arguably not much more of a better player than Delano Banton, and yet he's getting payed like he's 10X better. It would be a huge mistake to add good money after bad.

[Walton1one]

I am in complete agreement, I just don't believe that Cronin\Kolde are.

I think they intend to make the playoffs, I think they won't trade Simons unless the offer is ridiculous, which an offer will not be.

I think they view trading Simons as taking a step back, not a step forward

I think to ease Simons' concerns about his future status with the team they will offer him an extension

I think given Cronin's history that extension will be above market value and unnecessary (bidding against himself)

Which means Scoot is coming off the bench, again, in Y3

[Case2012]

All the local portland media is on Realgm. They just steal their ideas from here, down to contracts, trades etc. It's really funny because the topics on their podcasts and radio shows coincide with our discussions.

ANYWAYS. Simon for Wagner??? And the 5 picks we don't have? Besides, we have Deni and they have very similar games. Not saying it would be bad to have 2 players like that but they need the ball.

[zzaj]

All the local portland media is on Realgm. They just steal their ideas from here, down to contracts, trades etc. It's really funny because the topics on their podcasts and radio shows coincide with our discussions.

ANYWAYS. Simon for Wagner??? And the 5 picks we don't have? Besides, we have Deni and they have very similar games. Not saying it would be bad to have 2 players like that but they need the ball.

Yep, I'm with you Case...there's no realistic reality where the Blazers trade Simons for Wagner.

[Walton1one]

I see no reason for ORL to trade Wagner, let alone for Simons which is laughable

Of course this forum is on the cutting edge of Blazer talk.

The local media is pathetically apathetic at best, carrying water for this organization at worst

[Anderson Hunt]

Robert Williams will be let go for expiring salaries and a second round pick (or two).

That's the best the front office'll be able to get.

[HoopsFanAZ]

With Simons, it’s not a full-throated support or ignoring limitations by Richman, Marang, or Holdahl. It’s also not trashing guys, which is a good way to lose access. Local media and podcasts are pretty realistic though ready to undervalue Blazers players in the name of seeming realistic. Just some overall comments.

To the point — Cronin drafted Sharpe and Scoot. Not Simons. He has left him out of comments about the future of the team. While people like Marang well note Ant’s gravity as a shooter and gameplanning him by opposing defenses, his future is not beating out Sharpe. And he’s not a PG, and it’s always hunting season of him on D. So Cronin will (or should) try to trade Ant to Orlando — doing him a solid while getting the best possible — for that 16th pick.

DA makes too much but is DAEC. Grant has been passed up and is signed for too long and too much for Portland.
I expect Grant and Ant are the two traded this off-season. Cronin got plenty of criticism for his all-in comments in the time of Dame. He’s being careful, now. Let the national and Orlando media do the work with Ant and get #16, Black, Cole Anthony and (if need be) Gary Harris.

[Village Idiot]

I love the idea of trading down this draft to get a second pick to be able to draft one of the older players or give the pick to the Bulls to unencumber that pick. Vecenie's Atlanta proposal makes sense.

An idea I came up with with Boston since they will be looking to cut salary. They seem really disappointed with Porzingis who has been suffering from some ill-defined malady the past weeks.

Part 1:

Boston trades KP and 28 for Issac and 16
Portland trades Simons for KP
Orlando trades Issac and 16 for Simons and 28

Part 2: From July Issac's salary declines from $25 million to $15 million

Boston trades Issac to Portland for Timelord and Murray

For us I woould love to have KP for his floor spacing and shot-blocking. It allows us to start Deni at SG and a have potentially a really tall line-up.

[BlazersBroncos]

I expect Grant and Ant are the two traded this off-season. Cronin got plenty of criticism for his all-in comments in the time of Dame. He’s being careful, now. Let the national and Orlando media do the work with Ant and get #16, Black, Cole Anthony and (if need be) Gary Harris.

Looking around the league I just find it so hard to pin a team that would be interested in Grant. MIL if they keep Giannis is the only one I can really finger. This is a 'what have you done for me lately' league and Grant is coming off a 13ppg on sub 40% shooting season and is due 30M+ for the next 3 seasons. Its hard to find more than a handful of contracts that look worse than Jerami right now.

Boston trades KP and 28 for Issac and 16
Portland trades Simons for KP
Orlando trades Issac and 16 for Simons and 28

Part 2: From July Issac's salary declines from $25 million to $15 million

Boston trades Issac to Portland for Timelord and Murray

I wonder if there could be a simpler deal here -

Simons for KCP + 16
Ayton + 16 for KP + 28
RWIII for Gabe Vincent

ORL gets their scoring guard.
BOS shaves a year from KP and moves up in the draft (Sorber would be a incredible fit at 16 for them IMO)
LAL gambles on RWIII moving a guy that has played poorly for a few years now
PDX gets a win-now guy who fills a need shooting and still comes out with a draft pick. Get a EC vet backup PG in LAL deal.

G - Scoot Henderson / Gabe Vincent / Walter Clayton JR (28)
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Kentavious Caldwell-Pope / Walter Clayon JR (28)
F - Toumani Camara / Matisse Thybulle / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Noa Essengue or Asa Newell or Rasheer Flemming or Yaxel Lendeberg (10)
C - Kristaps Porzingis / Donovan Clingan / Duop Reath

I actually love that. Probably my favorite mock offseason so far.

[Norm2953]

Isaac however would be a bad fit culturally in politically liberal Portland

[Wizenheimer]

I can't decide whether to roll my eyes, shake my head, or throw up in my mouth when reading the discussion here about Simons. Seems like people are trying to accept the inevitable Cronin move of re-signing one of the worst starting SG's in the NBA. And yes, Simons is one. He's a net negative on the floor; always has been; always will be. His average offense can not offset his atrocious defense. He's the worst kind of tweener guard: too small to play wing; marginal PG skills; defensive sieve

I'll use BBREF and their criteria for gauging 'qualified' players. Here's how Simons ranked:

3ptFG% - 108th out of 174
eFG% - 88th out of 117
TS% - 140th out of 204
PER - 93rd out of 179 (NBA average is 15.0; Simons 14.9...and this stat favors offense)
Winshares/48 - 114th out of 179
BPM - 106th out of 179

he wasn't even in the top 50% of NBA players in any of those categories

so, how did Simons rank just on the Blazer team?

3ptFG% - 6th
2ptFG% - 13th
eFG% - 9th
TS% - 8th
Off.Rating - 9th
Def.Rating - dead last
PER - 7th
winshare/48 - 9th
DBPM - dead last
BPM - 4th

sure looks like somebody deserving 35M/year...right?....not. Marang can urinate up a rope. By the way, Jason Quick said sometime in 2018 that it was Cronin who convinced Olshey to look at Simons in the 2018 draft. So, those of you telling yourselves that Simons isn't a Cronin guy might be barking at the wrong tree

broken record time...2 year period of Blazer new contracts:

Simons 35M/year
Ayton 30M/year
Thybulle 10M/year
Sharpe 30M/year
Camara 25M/year
Scoot 25M/year
Avdija 45M/year
Clingan 25M/year

225M/year....8 players. And I'm probably low on most projections. Completely unsustainable situation. But given that the main M.O. Cronin has shown so far is that he really really likes to punt tough decisions down the road, the reality that Simons and Ayton are next up on the to-do list should worry everybody