Predict the Wizards Record '14-'15 season

dckingsfan · Post #521 » by **dckingsfan** » Mon Mar 9, 2015 5:08 pm

yeah, I think it was just perspective - we were "about" as good last year - to expect a huge jump in wins without Beal or Porter breaking out wasn't "rational". We lost our best perimeter defender and running mate next to Wall. And the depth we gained was mostly redundant in the FC.

In hindsight - I would have guessed 44 wins - same as last year.

Post #522 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Mon Mar 9, 2015 6:28 pm

BigA wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:Fewer than 45 wins is definitely possible. A perfectly average team would project to go 10-9 the rest of the way, which would have them finish at 45. But, the Wizards now actually rate slightly below average in schedule-adjusted scoring differential. Finishing 42-40 is pretty realistic given the schedule.

My "who's gonna win?" machine, estimates the Wizards as "coin flip" underdogs in 4 of their remaining games. They're "coin flip" favorites in one. "Coin flip" meaning the estimated chance of winning is within 5% -- in other words between 45% and 55%. If the Wizards can go 2-2 in those coin flip underdog games, and just win the games they "should" win, they'll have 9 wins and finish with 44 for the season.

Does your "who's going to win" machine weight the whole season equally, or assign higher weight to more recent performances? If it's based on season average point differentials, then you are building in the expectation that there will be some reversion toward the mean, and 9-10 is reasonable. That's what will happen if there's a significant turnaround from how they've been playing lately.

This collapse has been so complete that I'm not sure there will be any reversion. What if the Wizards just continue to play as well as they have been since the week before the All Star game? Which games should be wins and which should be losses? That's where I'm coming up with 7-12 as maybe a best case and 5-14 as what I would put money on today.

Full season. I've looked at various ways of weighting more recent performance, but haven't found any way of doing it that's made a meaningful difference in estimating odds.

That said, you may be correct. Since the hot start, their scoring differential has closely matched their record, which is what would be expected.

My "full season" estimator suggests the most likely result is your "best case" -- 7 wins. Nine or 10 is possible, but not as likely.

hands11 · Post #523 » by **hands11** » Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:57 am

tontoz wrote:Such a great time to be a Wizards fan....at least that is what some people were saying back in December.

Now i can't even be bothered to watch the games. I have watched parts of games but the GS game was the only one i watched in full since the AS break.

Then you just missed a really fun CHA game.

36 pt first quarter.
26 pt win

Held CHA to 9 pts in the 4th

Wall came out on a mission.

Hammer with 20 and 7 and would have likely had this 20 and 10 if he had not been resting after 28 mins of play.

Them putting together a good game wasn't out of the question. They had been making changes in line ups and approach, and they had some nice breakouts dating back to

the 60 pts first half again DET then 67 first half against MIA. They had a 56 pts first half tonight.

They just hadn't put together a complete game. Which they just did.

Now if they can ride that into a upset against MEM at home, 46/47 wins start looking more likely.

Only I don't trust Randy to deal with getting Hump back in the proper way. Gooden needs to continue to get his minutes Him stretching the floor is helping. It should be between Hump and Kev to split minutes. But again, I don't trust Randy to understand that.

dckingsfan · Post #524 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:21 pm

Hollinger now has us with 45 and 5th seed...

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

hands11 · Post #525 » by **hands11** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:29 am

Back on track for 47-48 wins.

But I still have no faith in Randy from one game to another or one half to another.

I still don't think he focuses the offense on Wall, PP, Gortat first enough and then rolling Beal into it. I think mixing in Nene before those are established is a mistake. So is allowing him to hold the ball more the 2 seconds before getting into a move. I think Nene getting up more shots the Gortat is a mistake most nights. And his unreliable FT is killer down the stretch.

If he is going to start Nene, I would pull him early or I would start Gooden and pull him if Nene's defense is needed.

And I don't trust Randy to call the no brainer time out.

Winning against POR.. I'll take it. But I still don't trust Randy to coach any game the right way to help his players to a win. They are lucky to walk with that win against POR because of Randy. It should have been a blow out. And that's what worries me.

Ohh. Let me kick in my ESP... Hollingers predictor thing will now say 46...

dckingsfan · Post #526 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:42 am

The only one I trust less than Wittman is checkers

I do think we would need at least 48 to get the 4th seed... could happen.

dckingsfan · Post #527 » by **dckingsfan** » Mon Mar 23, 2015 1:32 am

With 70 games in the book, the Wizards are 40 & 30 with a .571 winning percentage. On track for 46.822 wins.

Currently in 5th place 1 1/2 games back of 4th place.

dckingsfan · Post #528 » by **dckingsfan** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 2:24 am

Note: If you share a win record, tie is determined by ECS

Wins

58 - payitforward
57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
55 - leswizards, TheBlackCzar
54 - Wizardspride, stevemcqueen1, tsvqt, Bigwig
53 - dangermouse, Hidden Eye, Zonkerbl
52 - CntOutSmrtCrazy, AFM, MOrgil, barelyawake, JWizmentality, MarcoPolo, DANNYLANDOVER
51 - FreeBalling, sfam, diaboliQ_Mo, Higga, bgroban, Bleacher Report, keynote, evolushunize, JudBuchler,Darko Miliminutes
50 - nuposse04, 2Mas, TheKingOfVa360, CobraCommander, DCZards, WallToWall, jivelikenice, Higga, Wall34, WallWithTheDime, hands11, gtownheat34
49 - thricethefun, gesa2, BarnabyJones, Jimmy Recard, blazinskillz, SuperBook, Severn Hoos, TheBabyMaker, JAR69, Donkey McDonkerton, The Consiglieri
48 - miller31time, KevinFCheng, jmrosenth, McFilthy, Illmatic12, Kanyewest, dandridge 10, GhostsOfGil, pineappleheadindc, cammac, Kanyewest, wizfan1984
47 - The Fax, Jay81, Nigel Tufnel, The Fax, ESPN, Chaos Revenant, ProBasketballTalk, Dark Faze, fishercob, Dat2U, jangles86, WizTom, dobrojim
46 - penbeast0, montestewart, DaRealHibachi, mohammed10, Induveca, noworriesinmd, wermolwermol777, willbcocks, dobrojim, Hypnotizer, DCKingsFan, LyricalRico, nate33
45 - Ruzious, Nivek, Earth2Ted, Rafael122, Benjammin
44 - MJG, verbal8, closg00, long suffrin' boulez fan, bulletproof_32
43 - Dat2U, queridiculo, TGW, J-Ves
42 - FAH1223, Chocolate City Jordanaire, tontoz
40 - BigA

ECS

1st - deneem
2nd - leswizards, stevemcqueen1, bgroban, MarcoPolo, tsvqt, evolushunize, Bigwig
3rd - miller31time, CntOutSmrtCrazy, 2Mas, FreeBalling, hands11, McFilthy, sfam, BarnabyJones, Illmatic12, JWizmentality, Bleacher Report, Severn Hoos, cammac, DANNYLANDOVER, keynote, Dark Faze, SuperBook, Higga, JudBuchler, gtownheat34, wizfan1984
4th - gesa2, DCZards, montestewart, The Fax, mohammed10, dandridge 10, nuposse04, nate33, ESPN, GhostsOfGil, Zonkerbl, pineappleheadindc, wermolwermol777, willbcocks, jangles86, penbeast0, dobrojim, TheBabyMaker, JAR69, LyricalRico, Kanyewest, dobrojim
5th - DCKingsFan, verbal8, Earth2Ted, noworriesinmd, Dat2U, queridiculo, closg00, J-Ves, WizTom, Benjammin, bulletproof_32, Nivek
6th - long suffrin' boulez fan, Rafael122
7th - Chocolate City Jordanaire, tontoz, FAH1223
8th - BigA

tontoz · Post #529 » by **tontoz** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:14 am

Toronto clinched their division so even if we pass them (we are 2.5 back) they will still have the higher seed. We aren't catching Chicago (4 games back). Time to rest some guys.

TGW · Post #530 » by **TGW** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 1:10 pm

This team completely folded in the second half of the season. And I'm not buying the whole "Blame Wittman for 9/11" camp.

This roster is old. It's not a surprise they faded as the season progressed.

Post #531 » by **nate33** » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:21 pm

Remaining games:

vs Philadelphia 76ers (do what it takes to win)
vs New York Knicks (do what it takes to win)
@ Memphis Grizzlies (rest all ailing starters)
@ Philadelphia 76ers (do what it takes to win)
@ Brooklyn Nets
vs Atlanta Hawks
@ Indiana Pacers
@ Cleveland Cavaliers

If the Wizards win 3 of their next 4, they will surely clinch the 6th seed and will likely clinch the 5th seed as long as Milwaukee doesn't run the table in their remaining 9 games. That means the final 4 games won't matter at all. Randy should sit Nene and Pierce for at least 3 of those final 4 games, and he should alternate sitting Wall and Gortat (resting them each 2 games). I suppose both guys, having not missed a game yet this year, might want to play 82 for pride's sake. If so, take them out after the 1st quarter and don't put them back in.

Hopefully, we'll get Temple and Humphries back over the last few games. They can take the starters' minutes to get them a chance to get their rhythm back.

closg00 · Post #532 » by **closg00** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 2:09 pm

One more win and these gents are knocked out of the game

42 - FAH1223, Chocolate City Jordanaire, tontoz

tontoz · Post #533 » by **tontoz** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 9:58 pm

The Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards are on opposite ends of the Eastern conference standings, but the two teams do share an interesting distinction: They make up the only East teams that have multiple players who have started every single game this season.

Marcin Gortat and John Wall have started each of the Wizards' 75 games this year, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Andre Drummond have accomplished the same feat for the Pistons.

http://scores.espn.go.com/blog/nba/post ... lient-duos

hands11 · Post #534 » by **hands11** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 11:06 pm

dckingsfan » Mon Mar 2, 2015 1:27 pm wrote:With 60 games in the book... youuuuuurrrrrrr Washington Wizards have a 34 and 26 and a .567 winning percentage. On track for 46 wins and currently own the 5th seed in the east.

A mouth later, and still looking like that's pretty accurate.

With 49 still in reach if they win out. Which of course is highly unlikely.

Lets hope PP keeps resting and they add Nene to the list.

Wall has been amazing consider he was fighting ankle injuries. Somehow he came through that looking fresh as a daisy.

dckingsfan · Post #535 » by **dckingsfan** » Sun Apr 5, 2015 2:18 pm

Note: If you share a win record, tie is determined by ECS

Wins

58 - payitforward
57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
55 - leswizards, TheBlackCzar
54 - Wizardspride, stevemcqueen1, tsvqt, Bigwig
53 - dangermouse, Hidden Eye, Zonkerbl
52 - CntOutSmrtCrazy, AFM, MOrgil, barelyawake, JWizmentality, MarcoPolo, DANNYLANDOVER
51 - FreeBalling, sfam, diaboliQ_Mo, Higga, bgroban, Bleacher Report, keynote, evolushunize, JudBuchler,Darko Miliminutes
50 - nuposse04, 2Mas, TheKingOfVa360, CobraCommander, DCZards, WallToWall, jivelikenice, Higga, Wall34, WallWithTheDime, hands11, gtownheat34
49 - thricethefun, gesa2, BarnabyJones, Jimmy Recard, blazinskillz, SuperBook, Severn Hoos, TheBabyMaker, JAR69, Donkey McDonkerton, The Consiglieri
48 - miller31time, KevinFCheng, jmrosenth, McFilthy, Illmatic12, Kanyewest, dandridge 10, GhostsOfGil, pineappleheadindc, cammac, Kanyewest, wizfan1984
47 - The Fax, Jay81, Nigel Tufnel, The Fax, ESPN, Chaos Revenant, ProBasketballTalk, Dark Faze, fishercob, Dat2U, jangles86, WizTom, dobrojim
46 - penbeast0, montestewart, DaRealHibachi, mohammed10, Induveca, noworriesinmd, wermolwermol777, willbcocks, dobrojim, Hypnotizer, DCKingsFan, LyricalRico, nate33
45 - Ruzious, Nivek, Earth2Ted, Rafael122, Benjammin
44 - MJG, verbal8, closg00, long suffrin' boulez fan, bulletproof_32
43 - Dat2U, queridiculo, TGW, J-Ves
42 - FAH1223, Chocolate City Jordanaire, tontoz
40 - BigA

ECS

1st - deneem
2nd - leswizards, stevemcqueen1, bgroban, MarcoPolo, tsvqt, evolushunize, Bigwig
3rd - miller31time, CntOutSmrtCrazy, 2Mas, FreeBalling, hands11, McFilthy, sfam, BarnabyJones, Illmatic12, JWizmentality, Bleacher Report, Severn Hoos, cammac, DANNYLANDOVER, keynote, Dark Faze, SuperBook, Higga, JudBuchler, gtownheat34, wizfan1984
4th - gesa2, DCZards, montestewart, The Fax, mohammed10, dandridge 10, nuposse04, nate33, ESPN, GhostsOfGil, Zonkerbl, pineappleheadindc, wermolwermol777, willbcocks, jangles86, penbeast0, dobrojim, TheBabyMaker, JAR69, LyricalRico, Kanyewest, dobrojim
5th - DCKingsFan, verbal8, Earth2Ted, noworriesinmd, Dat2U, queridiculo, closg00, J-Ves, WizTom, Benjammin, bulletproof_32, Nivek
6th - long suffrin' boulez fan, Rafael122
7th - Chocolate City Jordanaire, tontoz, FAH1223
8th - BigA

BigA · Post #536 » by **BigA** » Sun Apr 5, 2015 3:17 pm

Did regular Dat2U predict 47 wins, and Peaked in High School Dat2U predict 43?

dckingsfan · Post #537 » by **dckingsfan** » Sun Apr 5, 2015 9:10 pm

BigA wrote:Did regular Dat2U predict 47 wins, and Peaked in High School Dat2U predict 43?

Good question... if he wins, I will go do the research

Dat2U wrote:...

dckingsfan · Post #538 » by **dckingsfan** » Mon Apr 6, 2015 6:58 pm

Dat2U wrote:Looking back I need to advise my prediction for a couple of reasons...

Sam Cassell is gone ... so may be the emphasis on the mid-range jumper that Cassell preached to anyone on the team that would listen. Nothing against Cassell, but considering the Wizards led the league in what Nivek affectionally calls the "sh*t shot", his absense may be a good thing.

Cassell's absense in turn leads me to be more optimistic about improved efficiency for both Wall & Beal. While I don't expect the mid-range game of either to totally subside... I'd expect both to be wiser about taking these shots, especially without Cassell always in their ears about it. Both have admitted on relying on the mid-range too much and needing to be smarter about their shot selection this past year.

Trevor Booker is gone ... and in turn, I'd expect our defense not to fall off a cliff like it did when Nene went to the bench as it has in the past. Let's face it, it was overlooked while he was here, but Booker was a miserable defender. Being a 6-7 PF with poor spacial awareness simply doesn't cut it and the fact he started 45 games and we still finished with a 45-37 record is a testament to the rest of the roster.

Having Andre Miller for a whole season at backup PG helps. So does passable backups like Blair & Humphries upfront instead of the aforementioned Booker & Seraphin taking valuable minutes.

With all that being said, it's a tougher conference this year so it will take a better team to even equal the win total from last year. I think our roster is much better than we started last year with and even stronger than we ended last season. I also think replacing Ariza with Pierce makes us a much smarter team if a little less athletic on both sides of the ball, I think we'll at least hold serve there and that's not counting any possible contributions from Porter/Rice. I'm comfortable with predicting 47 wins and 5th seed.

Dat2U · Post #539 » by **Dat2U** » Mon Apr 6, 2015 7:07 pm

BigA wrote:Did regular Dat2U predict 47 wins, and Peaked in High School Dat2U predict 43?

LOL! Peaked in High School Dat doesn't do predictions because I'm too cool for all of that. Time for me to polish my free throw shooting trophies from my sophmore year at Archbishop Carroll... 8-)

dobrojim · Post #540 » by **dobrojim** » Mon Apr 6, 2015 7:13 pm

I saw both me and Dat listed 2x. I'm listed at both 46 and 47. TBH, I don't remember which was my final.