Official RJ Barrett Thread Part 2

[tsherkin]

The RJ haters have disappeared into thin air...

20 pts 7 assists, 6 rebounds and 2 steals...ya that guy is 6th man material. lolololol

A nice performance from a breadth of contribution POV.

The 20 points came on 9/21 shooting with no fouls drawn and 2/6 from 3, though, so 47.6% TS. Which, needless to say, isn't good.

Probably not the performance to crow over, in other words.

[mtcan]

The RJ haters have disappeared into thin air...

20 pts 7 assists, 6 rebounds and 2 steals...ya that guy is 6th man material. lolololol

A nice performance from a breadth of contribution POV.

The 20 points came on 9/21 shooting with no fouls drawn and 2/6 from 3, though, so 47.6% TS. Which, needless to say, isn't good.

Probably not the performance to crow over, in other words.

But we probably don't win without him doing what he did? Right.

[Ell Curry]

20 pts 7 assists, 6 rebounds and 2 steals...ya that guy is 6th man material. lolololol

A nice performance from a breadth of contribution POV.

The 20 points came on 9/21 shooting with no fouls drawn and 2/6 from 3, though, so 47.6% TS. Which, needless to say, isn't good.

Probably not the performance to crow over, in other words.

But we probably don't win without him doing what he did? Right.

Eh, not sure.

No RJ's 33 minutes = 11 minutes more for the next 3 perimeter guys up.

11 more minutes from Quickley (even plus/minus, shot well, double the assist rate with no turnovers but 3 less rebounds than RJ if you equal their minutes), going from 17 to 28 minutes.

Agbaji (+12, made every shot) up to 31 from 20.

Brown (+7, same rebound rate, lower assist rate but no TOs, no steals though and RJ got 3) up to 28 minutes.

Kawhi and Harden struggled to score. If you wanna credit RJ with either of those and say Brown/Agbaji/Quickley couldn't have produced that, then yeah.

It's a clumsy way to look at it, but the math is just always tough for RJ. He's an innings eater with a passable ERA. That kind of guy. I haven't watched baseball in 20 years, but uh, Tim Wakefield?

[mtcan]

A nice performance from a breadth of contribution POV.

The 20 points came on 9/21 shooting with no fouls drawn and 2/6 from 3, though, so 47.6% TS. Which, needless to say, isn't good.

Probably not the performance to crow over, in other words.

But we probably don't win without him doing what he did? Right.

Eh, not sure.

No RJ's 33 minutes = 11 minutes more for the next 3 perimeter guys up.

11 more minutes from Quickley (even plus/minus, shot well, double the assist rate with no turnovers but 3 less rebounds than RJ if you equal their minutes), going from 17 to 28 minutes.

Agbaji (+12, made every shot) up to 31 from 20.

Brown (+7, same rebound rate, lower assist rate but no TOs, no steals though and RJ got 3) up to 28 minutes.

Kawhi and Harden struggled to score. If you wanna credit RJ with either of those and say Brown/Agbaji/Quickley couldn't have produced that, then yeah.

It's a clumsy way to look at it, but the math is just always tough for RJ. He's an innings eater with a passable ERA. That kind of guy. I haven't watched baseball in 20 years, but uh, Tim Wakefield?

20 points is still 20 points.

[Ell Curry]

20 points is still 20 points.

That's Bargnani talk. Can't abide that sort of thing.

[Thaddy]

20 points is still 20 points.

That's Bargnani talk. Can't abide that sort of thing.

If he believes that then it's a pointless conversation. RJ isn't a winning basketball player, he's very addition by subtraction. He needs to shoot better and play better defense. The late quarter 3 he allowed was unacceptable. I don't get why he's in a defensive stance and going backwards.

[mtcan]

20 points is still 20 points.

That's Bargnani talk. Can't abide that sort of thing.

But we won.

[Ell Curry]

20 points is still 20 points.

That's Bargnani talk. Can't abide that sort of thing.

If he believes that then it's a pointless conversation. RJ isn't a winning basketball player, he's very addition by subtraction. He needs to shoot better and play better defense. The late quarter 3 he allowed was unacceptable. I don't get why he's in a defensive stance and going backwards.

I think he's obviously better than someone like Bargnani. Craftednba.com has a fun comparison tool. RJ's guys at age 23/24 are below. It passes the eye test, I think. Jamison/Richard Jefferson/Ingram on the high end, Derrick Williams and Fizer on the low end.

Not surprised to see Lance Stephenson there, or Kelden Johnson, I could see a Kelden Johnson for RJ deal appealing to both teams if we turned Bruce Brown + Olynyk into a 40M player and needed to cut another 10M to duck the tax next year, like if we wanted say Lavine + Kelden over RJ + Olynyk + non-tax MLE/Mitchell + Boucher at 8M each or whatever.

Miles Bridges very similar impact to my eyes, but RJ seems like a good guy and not a Stephen King villain.

Seeing Desmond Mason is rough, he was a truly terrible player who only took long 2s and was an amazing dunker so people thought he had potential.

1Antawn Jamison 86 | 81 | 91 25 2002 SF
2Derrick Williams 86 | 79 | 92 24 2016 SF
3Mark Aguirre 85 | 84 | 85 23 1983 SF
4Andrew Wiggins 84 | 87 | 81 24 2020 SF
5Brandon Ingram 84 | 86 | 81 24 2022 SF
6Keldon Johnson 84 | 78 | 90 24 2024 SF
7Richard Jefferson 84 | 79 | 88 24 2005 SF
8Alec Burks 83 | 84 | 81 23 2015 SG
9Derek Smith 83 | 86 | 79 25 1987 SG
10Desmond Mason 83 | 77 | 89 25 2003 SF
11Devin Booker 83 | 83 | 82 24 2021 SG
12Don MacLean 83 | 73 | 92 24 1994 SF
13Evan Turner 83 | 81 | 84 25 2014 SF
14Jalen Rose 83 | 81 | 84 23 1996 SG
15Keldon Johnson 83 | 81 | 85 23 2023 SF
16Marcus Fizer 83 | 71 | 94 25 2004 SF
17Miles Bridges 83 | 70 | 95 25 2024 SF
18Zach LaVine 83 | 77 | 88 23 2019 SG
19Antawn Jamison 82 | 74 | 90 23 2000 SF
20Antawn Jamison 82 | 81 | 82 24 2001 SF
21Glenn Robinson 82 | 81 | 83 23 1996 SF
22Jim Jackson 82 | 83 | 80 25 1996 SG
23Lance Stephenson 82 | 81 | 83 25 2016 SF
24Mark Aguirre 82 | 77 | 86 25 1985 SF
25Mike Mitchell 82 | 74 | 89 25 1981 SF

[tsherkin]

20 pts 7 assists, 6 rebounds and 2 steals...ya that guy is 6th man material. lolololol

A nice performance from a breadth of contribution POV.

The 20 points came on 9/21 shooting with no fouls drawn and 2/6 from 3, though, so 47.6% TS. Which, needless to say, isn't good.

Probably not the performance to crow over, in other words.

But we probably don't win without him doing what he did? Right.

I guess? Someone had to shoot and score. It was him this time, but that doesnt really speak to the quality of the performsnce. The scoring, anyway. Obviously, he was doing some things well, of course. My point wasnt that he was crappy, it was that the performance wasnt anything to crow about.

[RoteSchroder]

20 points is still 20 points.

That's Bargnani talk. Can't abide that sort of thing.

If he believes that then it's a pointless conversation. RJ isn't a winning basketball player, he's very addition by subtraction. He needs to shoot better and play better defense. The late quarter 3 he allowed was unacceptable. I don't get why he's in a defensive stance and going backwards.

It's been pretty clear that RJ has been a big reason why we've been competitive for most of the year, even with his weaknesses

[MEDIC]

Great game by RJ. His defense is improving. One of the better defensive games I have seen from him.

[mtcan]

A nice performance from a breadth of contribution POV.

The 20 points came on 9/21 shooting with no fouls drawn and 2/6 from 3, though, so 47.6% TS. Which, needless to say, isn't good.

Probably not the performance to crow over, in other words.

But we probably don't win without him doing what he did? Right.

I guess? Someone had to shoot and score. It was him this time, but that doesnt really speak to the quality of the performsnce. The scoring, anyway. Obviously, he was doing some things well, of course. My point wasnt that he was crappy, it was that the performance wasnt anything to crow about.

I'll happily crow about 20 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds.

[Ell Curry]

That's Bargnani talk. Can't abide that sort of thing.

If he believes that then it's a pointless conversation. RJ isn't a winning basketball player, he's very addition by subtraction. He needs to shoot better and play better defense. The late quarter 3 he allowed was unacceptable. I don't get why he's in a defensive stance and going backwards.

It's been pretty clear that RJ has been a big reason why we've been competitive for most of the year, even with his weaknesses

If the goal is to win 35 games, RJ is a fine co-#2 option, which is the salary space he eats up. If the goal is to win 50 games, he's probably a #4.

EPM has him, Jalen Green, Simons and Poole all fairly similar. RJ is bigger so they have different players around them, but basically the impact is similar. Bad on defence, solid on O, on a title team they are the 6th man keeping the offence afloat while one of the star sits, finishing games when they have a nice matchup or even stepping into a starting role at times over an Agbaji type 3+D guy.

My guess is the only way to have a guy like that as your #3 or #4 scorer and a starter type is if you have a truly great 3+D team around them, like top 5 defence and tons of shooting, and getting average efficiency around that is fine and keeps guys whose efficiency would plummet if they took more shots (back to Agbaji here).

Unless he improves his efficiency or defence. It's gonna be tough for him to start here and us to be really, really good.

But like Poole/Simons and those types, if we somehow nail our 3 picks the next 2 drafts, RJ can be a big part of a really good team here:

Poeltl-2026TOR
Barnes-Agbaji
2025TOR-RJ
Dick-Walter
Quickley-2026IND

Adding a truly quality all-around wing as the starting SF, a very good defensive center as the 2026 TOR pick and a solid all-around PG with the Indy pick. Taking just 2022 draft guys since we're probably 3 years away from being really good, and that's let's say Jalen Williams, a healthy version of Mark Williams and Nembhard:

Poeltl-MarkWilliams
Barnes-Agbaji
JalenWilliams-RJ
Dick-Walter
Quickley-Nembhard

That's what a really good team with RJ probably looks like here.

[MEDIC]

His man D is I think at a level where he is probably a bit above average. He stone walls some of the bigger wings in the league that try and drive on him. He's even been getting a bit better off the ball as the team has become a more cohesive unit defensively with more reps.

This was the kind of game where he didn't have great shooting numbers but his impact was noticeable out there. Missed some bunnies and had contact on a lot of shots at the rim where he didn't get any calls.

Yeah. I have noticed a considerable improvement in defense this past month. Fantastic to see because it means he is putting work in an area of weakness & has the ability to get better. Future is bright.

[mtcan]

His man D is I think at a level where he is probably a bit above average. He stone walls some of the bigger wings in the league that try and drive on him. He's even been getting a bit better off the ball as the team has become a more cohesive unit defensively with more reps.

This was the kind of game where he didn't have great shooting numbers but his impact was noticeable out there. Missed some bunnies and had contact on a lot of shots at the rim where he didn't get any calls.

Yeah. I have noticed a considerable improvement in defense this past month. Fantastic to see because it means he is putting work in on an area of weakness & has the ability to get better. Future is bright.

Ya...I was watching him closely guarding Kawhi today...and to RJ's credit...he moved his feet and Kahwi had to hook his arm around onto RJ and drew the offensive foul.

Consider that Kawhi had scored 21 and 27 points in the prior 2 games on pretty good efficiency and we made it hard for him to score 14 points on 30% shooting. Good team defence overall but especially to RJ.

RJ played a very good game today despite what anyone says.

[mtcan]

If he believes that then it's a pointless conversation. RJ isn't a winning basketball player, he's very addition by subtraction. He needs to shoot better and play better defense. The late quarter 3 he allowed was unacceptable. I don't get why he's in a defensive stance and going backwards.

It's been pretty clear that RJ has been a big reason why we've been competitive for most of the year, even with his weaknesses

If the goal is to win 35 games, RJ is a fine co-#2 option, which is the salary space he eats up. If the goal is to win 50 games, he's probably a #4.

EPM has him, Jalen Green, Simons and Poole all fairly similar. RJ is bigger so they have different players around them, but basically the impact is similar. Bad on defence, solid on O, on a title team they are the 6th man keeping the offence afloat while one of the star sits, finishing games when they have a nice matchup or even stepping into a starting role at times over an Agbaji type 3+D guy.

My guess is the only way to have a guy like that as your #3 or #4 scorer and a starter type is if you have a truly great 3+D team around them, like top 5 defence and tons of shooting, and getting average efficiency around that is fine and keeps guys whose efficiency would plummet if they took more shots (back to Agbaji here).

Unless he improves his efficiency or defence. It's gonna be tough for him to start here and us to be really, really good.

But like Poole/Simons and those types, if we somehow nail our 3 picks the next 2 drafts, RJ can be a big part of a really good team here:

Poeltl-2026TOR
Barnes-Agbaji
2025TOR-RJ
Dick-Walter
Quickley-2026IND

Adding a truly quality all-around wing as the starting SF, a very good defensive center as the 2026 TOR pick and a solid all-around PG with the Indy pick. Taking just 2022 draft guys since we're probably 3 years away from being really good, and that's let's say Jalen Williams, a healthy version of Mark Williams and Nembhard:

Poeltl-MarkWilliams
Barnes-Agbaji
JalenWilliams-RJ
Dick-Walter
Quickley-Nembhard

That's what a really good team with RJ probably looks like here.

lots of hypotheticals here man...lets keep it in this particular reality. lol

None of what you said negates my original point. Numbers don't tell the whole story. RJ has been big factor in the games we have won...advanced stats be damned. I watch the game and see the impact he has with my own eyes.

[PushDaRock]

The RJ haters have disappeared into thin air...

20 pts 7 assists, 6 rebounds and 2 steals...ya that guy is 6th man material. lolololol

A nice performance from a breadth of contribution POV.

The 20 points came on 9/21 shooting with no fouls drawn and 2/6 from 3, though, so 47.6% TS. Which, needless to say, isn't good.

Probably not the performance to crow over, in other words.

He got zero FTA's, but if you watched the game, it's hard to say it was from a lack of trying. This was a game where he could have gotten there 10 times with the benefit of a better whistle. Not getting some of those calls obviously affected his FG%. But, with the way he has been shooting FT's, maybe it helped his TS%.

[PushDaRock]

20 points is still 20 points.

That's Bargnani talk. Can't abide that sort of thing.

If he believes that then it's a pointless conversation. RJ isn't a winning basketball player, he's very addition by subtraction. He needs to shoot better and play better defense. The late quarter 3 he allowed was unacceptable. I don't get why he's in a defensive stance and going backwards.

probably because Amir Coffey isn't exactly known for pulling up for 3's off the dribble?

[pingpongrac]

Even if Barrett has a good or great game, his detractors are going to point to a bad turnover or defensive breakdown as evidence that he's not a winning player while his TS% is always a major talking point too. His inefficiency this season is generally driven by two things: a very high workload and playing with a lot of inexperience in the early parts of the season without Scottie/IQ as well as a very low free throw percentage (5% below his career average) on decently high volume. He obviously has flaws, but he has been playing at an all-star level since we've acquired him and he's still pretty young while we've seen some noticeable improvements in the 13 months he's been here. It's wild to me that a lot of people that are so down on RJ as a top 2/3 option have been so high on Scottie as a potential offensive hub when their numbers and impact have been very similar this season with the edge going RJ.

Barrett: 23/7/6 per36 on 55 TS% / +0.6 O-EPM, +3.4 O on/off
Scottie: 21/8/7 per36 on 54 TS% / +0.5 O-EPM, -4.4 O on/off

Scottie is the superior building block going forward because he is also a very good defender, but we shouldn't be so quick to give up on Barrett because he doesn't have as much potential. RJ is also being paid ~27M for the remainder of his contract which is outside of the top 50, so it's not like he has a bad contract either yet there are still some people acting like he's overpaid and/or a terrible contract.

[RoteSchroder]

If he believes that then it's a pointless conversation. RJ isn't a winning basketball player, he's very addition by subtraction. He needs to shoot better and play better defense. The late quarter 3 he allowed was unacceptable. I don't get why he's in a defensive stance and going backwards.

It's been pretty clear that RJ has been a big reason why we've been competitive for most of the year, even with his weaknesses

If the goal is to win 35 games, RJ is a fine co-#2 option, which is the salary space he eats up. If the goal is to win 50 games, he's probably a #4.

EPM has him, Jalen Green, Simons and Poole all fairly similar. RJ is bigger so they have different players around them, but basically the impact is similar. Bad on defence, solid on O, on a title team they are the 6th man keeping the offence afloat while one of the star sits, finishing games when they have a nice matchup or even stepping into a starting role at times over an Agbaji type 3+D guy.

My guess is the only way to have a guy like that as your #3 or #4 scorer and a starter type is if you have a truly great 3+D team around them, like top 5 defence and tons of shooting, and getting average efficiency around that is fine and keeps guys whose efficiency would plummet if they took more shots (back to Agbaji here).

Unless he improves his efficiency or defence. It's gonna be tough for him to start here and us to be really, really good.

More like #3. He's already shown that he can be efficient with more of an off-ball role. 20 PPG at 58 TS% is fine..especially if he can maintain it in the playoffs as a #3 guy, where the efficiency of some players, including stars, tend to go down. If he can improve his FT%, which should be doable, then even better. He's also currently doing this in a shared #1 role, as Barnes doesn't always take over offensively.

Being close to average defensively is also fine. It's not like he's Gradey Dick.

The "salary space" he eats up is less than $30 M, which is actually a really good deal considering you have guys like Bruce Brown making 23 M.

The team as is, is able to consistently beat weak teams and has a shot at mediocre teams. We have a small sample size of near 0.500 ball last year when the team was fully healthy. Then we have a sample size of competitive games with RJ when the team was completely depleted and playing G-leaguers. Now that we're almost fully healthy, we are 8-2 in our last 10 games, where we benched both Boucher/Olynyk in one of our losses..both of whom provide spacing and play at our weakest position.

You replace some of the mediocre players with an actual two way all-star to this roster or a superstar and the team easily wins 50+ with RJ as a #3.

Team salary is at 164 M, 22nd in the league. If you want to match the pay roll of several contenders, you can add about 25 M to that. Take out Bruce Brown and Boucher/Olynyk and you're left with ~$60 M dollars to work with in a theoretical scenario. You can work out numerous hypotheticals where RJ is a #3 and the team is a contender.