Elephant in the room but isn't Barnes suppose to be getting better?

[Merit]

Okay so your concern is that his efficiency has stagnated and will get even worse when we add a high volume scorer who reduces the impact of his passing.

Close. I don't think his efficiency will worsen relative to this season. I'm concerned that he has shown no signs that reducing his usage will increase his efficiency to league average or better.

since his skills in passing and BBIQ play up with better players, could this just be a case where having better players around also makes him more efficient?

I doubt it. He takes a lot of wide-open shots now and still couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with an artillery fusillade, so I don't see increased spacing or teammate quality helping that.

Could there be any other explanations? I say this as a jazz piano player. I’ve seen countless players not be able to improvise at all for years, and then all of a sudden - it clicks. Same with toddlers who are learning to speak. Some kids say nothing for the longest time, and then speak in full sentences.

Sure. And if you want to waste time waiting for that, then that's your business. But I don't want to invest in a 10-year project where he starts getting better and figuring it out as age starts to erode his physical tools. That's a lodestone, not a useful player at that stage. Improvisational skill increases with exposure and pattern recognition, and just playing more pieces as much as anything else. Not everyone's a savant who just gets it early, no doubt. Is the same with drums and guitar and so forth. The "hidden work," so to speak.

But there are patterns to typical NBA development. We already know that Scottie's ceiling is now considerably lower than we were hoping. So now what we're relying on is that he can be turned into a sufficiently capable C+S corner 3ball guy who can cut around other initiation to make his scoring possessions tolerable, and that we can maybe somehow find a way to still use his passing. And of course we love his defense.

To sum up your main point in one word: shooting. Given the improvement of Gradey, Jamal, Battle etc. I feel confident in Scottie and our player development team.

I still disagree with you because of his age curve and because he’s already demonstrated his offensive skill playing up with better players in his rookie season.

I’m not quite sure I’m wasting time waiting for anything. What’s the rush with Scottie? As it stands right now he could be moved in aggregate for a top 5 player. I doubt it happens, but it’s possible. Plus, I’m pretty sure we are trying to lose this season.

I am content to see how things shake down when we’re playing to win before making any major changes to the roster. Scottie included/especially.

[ConSarnit]

Okay so your concern is that his efficiency has stagnated and will get even worse when we add a high volume scorer who reduces the impact of his passing.

I disagree, but I see your reasoning.

It still doesn’t explain the significant drop-off offensively this year compared to other years, especially when we didn’t see IQ much, and we haven’t had BI take over offensively. We have had RJ make strides though - and just about every other player not named Scottie. Which gets me wondering - since his skills in passing and BBIQ play up with better players, could this just be a case where having better players around also makes him more efficient?

Could there be any other explanations? I say this as a jazz piano player. I’ve seen countless players not be able to improvise at all for years, and then all of a sudden - it clicks. Same with toddlers who are learning to speak. Some kids say nothing for the longest time, and then speak in full sentences.

Since this team has been healthier Barnes has actually been less efficient. The issue is there are things Barnes is doing that are not teammate dependent that is killing his efficiency. His ft% is below league average. This is not a huge deal but it’s still something. He’s shooting 30% on wide-open 3’s. The guy is one of the worst wide-open shooters in the league. It doesn’t really matter who’s on the floor with him if he can’t hit those shots.

Current Barnes is a bad candidate for a reduced usage role because if you take the ball out of his hands then he’s not creating as much, which is his best offensive attribute. And if he’s creating less and not spacing at all that’s a negative offensive player. Barnes should be more efficient in a reduced role but then you’re also taking away reps from his best offensive skill (passing). It’s not a great situation unless his shooting comes around.

The shooting needs to improve, agreed fully. That’s pretty well the only concern I have about his game. He’s young enough that he can still get better.

He would still create in the pick and roll. He doesn’t have to bring the ball up court, but he can as a one man fast break after a rebound.

The counter narrative to your suggestion is that he’s been playing injured or tired. I think it’s both. He’s propping up all bench units and getting looks for others that are bricked. Do I agree with your sentiment, yes - largely. He definitely needs to shoot better. However I’m far more optimistic about his shooting improving and his ability to play up with better players - if for no other reason than he’s done it already. Rookie Scottie did it.

If we’re talking about efficiency in transition then here are Barnes scoring ranks by year:

40th percentile
24th percentile
29th percentile
22nd percentile

He’s been a poor transition scorer every year.

Now let’s look at pnr ball handler efficiency:

94th (on very low volume)
18th
48th
54th

He’s making progress there but he’s still average.

This is the scoring efficiency by play type I am talking about. It’s not just as simple as ramping up transition because he’s also not a good scorer there. He also wasn’t even efficient in his rookie season (55 TS% which is below league average and he shot 30% from 3). He’s never been efficient regardless of who he’s played with.

If he has been playing injured then that is insane considering it’s a completely lost season. If he were injured we would have shut him down already. The tired excuse doesn’t fly either as he’s only played 60 games, he’s 23, playing a career low in mpg and his usage isn’t that high.

[AbC?]

His best use will be as a trade piece. It was true year 2 and it's true today. Find a team who believes in his untapped upside and move on.

[Merit]

Since this team has been healthier Barnes has actually been less efficient. The issue is there are things Barnes is doing that are not teammate dependent that is killing his efficiency. His ft% is below league average. This is not a huge deal but it’s still something. He’s shooting 30% on wide-open 3’s. The guy is one of the worst wide-open shooters in the league. It doesn’t really matter who’s on the floor with him if he can’t hit those shots.

Current Barnes is a bad candidate for a reduced usage role because if you take the ball out of his hands then he’s not creating as much, which is his best offensive attribute. And if he’s creating less and not spacing at all that’s a negative offensive player. Barnes should be more efficient in a reduced role but then you’re also taking away reps from his best offensive skill (passing). It’s not a great situation unless his shooting comes around.

The shooting needs to improve, agreed fully. That’s pretty well the only concern I have about his game. He’s young enough that he can still get better.

He would still create in the pick and roll. He doesn’t have to bring the ball up court, but he can as a one man fast break after a rebound.

The counter narrative to your suggestion is that he’s been playing injured or tired. I think it’s both. He’s propping up all bench units and getting looks for others that are bricked. Do I agree with your sentiment, yes - largely. He definitely needs to shoot better. However I’m far more optimistic about his shooting improving and his ability to play up with better players - if for no other reason than he’s done it already. Rookie Scottie did it.

If we’re talking about efficiency in transition then here are Barnes scoring ranks by year:

40th percentile
24th percentile
29th percentile
22nd percentile

He’s been a poor transition scorer every year.

Now let’s look at pnr ball handler efficiency:

94th (on very low volume)
18th
48th
54th

He’s making progress there but he’s still average.

This is the scoring efficiency by play type I am talking about. It’s not just as simple as ramping up transition because he’s also not a good scorer there. He also wasn’t even efficient in his rookie season (55 TS% which is below league average and he shot 30% from 3). He’s never been efficient regardless of who he’s played with.

If he has been playing injured then that is insane considering it’s a completely lost season. If he were injured we would have shut him down already. The tired excuse doesn’t fly either as he’s only played 60 games, he’s 23, playing a career low in mpg and his usage isn’t that high.

He definitely played injured and that’s because if he didn’t meet the minimum of 65 games he would not be eligible for the full max.

As for his transition and P&R efficiency I am not saying that he’s amazing, but if we look at the players he’s had vs. his output as I suggest, then a pattern emerges where his passing and basketball iq play up. As I keep repeating, he is literally the only starting calibre player in some (many) of the units he finds himself in. He is forced to carry them on both ends. That’s tiring.

This is a similar argument to the one I made when I previously suggested that Fred was doing too much because he didn’t have anyone else who could do what he did and he felt he had to take on everything on his own. Putting a shot creator beside Fred or at least putting a group of shooters around him so he didn’t have to rely so much on himself imo would’ve made a huge difference. In the case of Scottie, I highly doubt his OWS will be lower than 2 next year. Let’s see where he ends up.

This is not a 1-1 case for Scottie. Scottie doesn’t have the same track record of consistency as Fred and I agree he’s got a ways to go in terms of his shooting. However, he’s 23 for crying out loud. He’s got at least 2-3 years more before we start talking about him the way we already are. Now if his regression continues next year, I will agree with you and stand corrected. Like I said above, I highly highly doubt his cumulative stats read as poorly next year.

[Madvillainy2004]

My main problem with Scottie is I don't know how he can even be useful with scaling down his usage. It's not like Pascal who had like a 62 TS% when he was playing more off transistion/cuts/corner 3s. His offense is just kinda useless at times.

He needs to develop his game as a big and idk if his ego will allow that lol he needs to go all out on defense and be a guy that score off cuts/offensive rebounds/PnR as the roller. Because I'd rather have the ball in IQ and Ingrams hands (and maybe RJ).

[Merit]

My main problem with Scottie is I don't know how he can even be useful with scaling down his usage. It's not like Pascal who had like a 62 TS% when he was playing more off transistion/cuts/corner 3s. His offense is just kinda useless at times.

He needs to develop his game as a big and idk if his ego will allow that lol he needs to go all out on defense and be a guy that score off cuts/offensive rebounds/PnR as the roller. Because I'd rather have the ball in IQ and Ingrams hands (and maybe RJ).

While Scottie can guard most 1-5 I think he’s best suited as a free roaming 4. And yes, Scottie (and Jak) is ideal as a connective passer and opportunistic scorer. Furthermore, as you suggest, IQ and BI (and to a lesser extent RJ as well) should have the ball in their hands far more.

[DKB333]

His best use will be as a trade piece. It was true year 2 and it's true today. Find a team who believes in his untapped upside and move on.

Well that is not happening obviously.

[tsherkin]

To sum up your main point in one word: shooting. Given the improvement of Gradey, Jamal, Battle etc. I feel confident in Scottie and our player development team.

I still disagree with you because of his age curve and because he’s already demonstrated his offensive skill playing up with better players in his rookie season.

I can't really agree that he's demonstrated his offensive skill. He's demonstrated that passing from someone else is valuable to some of the other guys on the team, which is no great work of rocket science. We've been calling, for example, to get RJ more off-ball and set up with more passing support all season. And we've known that Scottie can do some of that since before the draft. That's literally, along with D, his bailiwick. Those are his positives.

But his offensive utility will always be limited by how poor a scorer he is.

I’m not quite sure I’m wasting time waiting for anything. What’s the rush with Scottie? As it stands right now he could be moved in aggregate for a top 5 player.

I don't believe that. I can't imagine a team holding onto a top-5 player wanting Scottie as the main part of a return. His value and projected prime just aren't there. Unless it was a perfunctory trade because they've got no other choice.

Plus, I’m pretty sure we are trying to lose this season.

Yes, I've acknowledged this repeatedly.

[tsherkin]

Yes, there is.

We’re not asking him to become something different but rather to get more accurate.

I'm not holding my breath. Shooting doesn't typically improve that much with time in the NBA, especially with no prior indications of growth. It's typically guys moving more to the corner and being heavily set up with C+S opportunities which changes that over time (and on lower volume). It isn't impossible, but it's also usually more late starters who manage. And it isn't just ranged shooting where Scottie isn't impressive.

His handle looks a little better. He's got a couple of middies that he's shooting well. These are wrinkles we've been seeing all year which represent what passes for growth with him. They don't overcome his huge deficiencies, though, nor are they shots we're going to want him to be taking as he starts downshifting his overall usage.

He’s taking middies, adding a turnaround jumper, getting to the basket

Getting to the basket... at the worst rate of his career. And finishing below average when he gets there.

and trying to keep the ball lower when he drives, shooting 3s. Again, it’s more the accuracy that needs to get better. We’re not asking him to do any more than that.

You act like that isn't a huge deal, though. It is a very large deal.

Siakam also struggled with that.

Siakam wasn't suited as a focal scorer either, for the most part, but more so as a secondary guy. And he showcased improvement, and more of it, earlier than Scottie, as has been mentioned several times ITT. He isn't a good comparison.

You just lumped defense into a single phrase, while it’s half the game, (also downplayed his passing and made a passing comment about rebounds) as if it’s all minuscule,

I can't spend paragraphs in every post repeating myself. It's laborious and annoying. We both know that I think well of Scottie's defense. But he isn't good ENOUGH at it to really make a difference to the point I was making. Nor is his passing.

while you broke down scoring into separate individual categories to indicate there’s so much he’s not good at. This doesn’t seem to be an accurate way to rate a player at all, does it? Or is this conversation only about whether he is a #1 scorer? I don’t think he’s a #1 scorer. He has never shown he wants to be a #1 scorer. That’s people on this board. This is a strange way to look at a player for a team whose most iconic player is considered Kyle Lowry.

If you've been reading what I've been writing, then you know that isn't the core issue. He is a horrible scorer, and him scoring at that level with his current usage is a problem once we start winning. He also doesn't improve much in efficiency as his usage goes down, which is also a problem. We will NEED his usage to go down next year, but that becomes a further issue, because it impacts possessions where he's on-ball, which is how he leverages his passing, which is the source of any offensive value he provides. That's the issue. And his skill set isn't good for a lower usage role, either. He isn't a good screener, he isn't a good C+S guy, he isn't good from the corners. He doesn't stun at the rim, so even cutting to the basket and in transition, he's not particularly stunning. He doesn't have a meaningful strength as a scoring tool. That's a big problem.

[qute]
Yeah I know Kyle shot very well from 3 but he was very passive and was never a scorer.
[/quote]

Neither of those things is accurate. He was a bull-headed, aggressive driver and he had some wonderful scoring seasons with us. He wasn't an ATG scorer, but he was also our primary playmaker and an efficient 17-22 ppg guy for us.

The part he is bad at - accuracy. Get better there and don’t try to do too much more. Make the 3 passable.

And we're back to this. You can't hand wave this away. This is a SIGNIFICANT issue in his game, and it isn't one where we tend to see huge improvement. That is a big part of WHY it's such an issue.

He’s going to get more accurate with his shooting/scoring imo

Based on what, other than that you want it to?

I know everything is numbers and only numbers now, but I do think there’s a human aspect that factors in like how good was this player at something that he’s now trying to add. Did he already have this before? Was he using it consistently? Has his situation to develop this gotten easier or harder. I think he has added the new wrinkles he wants to utilize, but that has been more recent while being the focus of the defense. I don’t think he has to add anything new now, but rather refine it while being a focus of the defense. I think that part is easier to improve.

I can't say I agree with most of that. Sure, there are valuable things to look at beyond the numbers. But they are still heavily informative. But his new wrinkle is functionally useless in the face of his untouched, unimproved deficiencies. It doesn't help to any meaningful extent. He DOES need to add new things. And he ALSO has to refine what he already does.

[TeamDisgruntled]

Since having an incredible 50 game start to the 23-24 season in which he made the all star team and shot 48% from the floor, 36.5% from 3, Scottie has played 70 games over roughly a season and a half.

During this stretch he has battled some injuries, a constantly changing roster, and a new role as the lead man and the centre of opposing teams game plans. I saw a TON of ppl writing off Halliburton after he had an even longer rough stretch than Scottie has had as he dealt with some injuries. Everyone writing off Scottie this quickly has zero patience. In the long run you may be right, you may be wrong, but basing his entire future off of this last run seems premature.

All it would take is Scottie shooting 34-37% from 3 and the floor would open up once again, allowing his offence to look a lot better. It’s easy to scoff at right now, he’s been awful from 3 this year, no doubt. But you have ppl praising Giddey and his improvement while writing off Scottie. What changed for Giddey? Suddenly he could shoot and now everything’s changed for the better.

[dballislife]

hes finishing this season 17 7 5 on 43% fg 25% from 3...let that sink in lol

[wegotthabeet]

Since having an incredible 50 game start to the 23-24 season in which he made the all star team and shot 48% from the floor, 36.5% from 3, Scottie has played 70 games over roughly a season and a half.

During this stretch he has battled some injuries, a constantly changing roster, and a new role as the lead man and the centre of opposing teams game plans. I saw a TON of ppl writing off Halliburton after he had an even longer rough stretch than Scottie has had as he dealt with some injuries. Everyone writing off Scottie this quickly has zero patience. In the long run you may be right, you may be wrong, but basing his entire future off of this last run seems premature.

All it would take is Scottie shooting 34-37% from 3 and the floor would open up once again, allowing his offence to look a lot better. It’s easy to scoff at right now, he’s been awful from 3 this year, no doubt. But you have ppl praising Giddey and his improvement while writing off Scottie. What changed for Giddey? Suddenly he could shoot and now everything’s changed for the better.

Yep people who post here are pretty victims of the moment. They want Scottie to look like a future superstar and simultaneously land a top 4 pick, but life doesn’t work like that. A year ago he’s the best player from his draft class. This year most people don’t have him in the top five. Scroll through this thread and you’ll read dozens of horrible takes. Next year when he’s back at an all star level these dudes won’t even remember what they wrote a few months earlier.

[TakeYourHeart]

Since having an incredible 50 game start to the 23-24 season in which he made the all star team and shot 48% from the floor, 36.5% from 3, Scottie has played 70 games over roughly a season and a half.

During this stretch he has battled some injuries, a constantly changing roster, and a new role as the lead man and the centre of opposing teams game plans. I saw a TON of ppl writing off Halliburton after he had an even longer rough stretch than Scottie has had as he dealt with some injuries. Everyone writing off Scottie this quickly has zero patience. In the long run you may be right, you may be wrong, but basing his entire future off of this last run seems premature.

All it would take is Scottie shooting 34-37% from 3 and the floor would open up once again, allowing his offence to look a lot better. It’s easy to scoff at right now, he’s been awful from 3 this year, no doubt. But you have ppl praising Giddey and his improvement while writing off Scottie. What changed for Giddey? Suddenly he could shoot and now everything’s changed for the better.

You can just as easily argue that those 50 incredible games was just a hot stretch, an aberration, and these 70 games is more of a continuation. He has more months shooting sub 30% from 3 across the totality of his career (the exact breakdown is somewhere else in this thread).

[Scott Hall]

Since having an incredible 50 game start to the 23-24 season in which he made the all star team and shot 48% from the floor, 36.5% from 3, Scottie has played 70 games over roughly a season and a half.

During this stretch he has battled some injuries, a constantly changing roster, and a new role as the lead man and the centre of opposing teams game plans. I saw a TON of ppl writing off Halliburton after he had an even longer rough stretch than Scottie has had as he dealt with some injuries. Everyone writing off Scottie this quickly has zero patience. In the long run you may be right, you may be wrong, but basing his entire future off of this last run seems premature.

All it would take is Scottie shooting 34-37% from 3 and the floor would open up once again, allowing his offence to look a lot better. It’s easy to scoff at right now, he’s been awful from 3 this year, no doubt. But you have ppl praising Giddey and his improvement while writing off Scottie. What changed for Giddey? Suddenly he could shoot and now everything’s changed for the better.

Yep people who post here are pretty victims of the moment. They want Scottie to look like a future superstar and simultaneously land a top 4 pick, but life doesn’t work like that. A year ago he’s the best player from his draft class. This year most people don’t have him in the top five. Scroll through this thread and you’ll read dozens of horrible takes. Next year when he’s back at an all star level these dudes won’t even remember what they wrote a few months earlier.

People want him to play like a superstar because he's gonna be paid like one not only that but I don't know if
he's played like a top 75-100 player since the All-Star break. Also players from the 2021 draft are still young and
players stocks are constantly fluctuating. How are you so confident he will make the All-Star team next year and
everyone is so wrong? his usage will go down with Ingram and possibly our 1st round pick.

[Madvillainy2004]

Since having an incredible 50 game start to the 23-24 season in which he made the all star team and shot 48% from the floor, 36.5% from 3, Scottie has played 70 games over roughly a season and a half.

During this stretch he has battled some injuries, a constantly changing roster, and a new role as the lead man and the centre of opposing teams game plans. I saw a TON of ppl writing off Halliburton after he had an even longer rough stretch than Scottie has had as he dealt with some injuries. Everyone writing off Scottie this quickly has zero patience. In the long run you may be right, you may be wrong, but basing his entire future off of this last run seems premature.

All it would take is Scottie shooting 34-37% from 3 and the floor would open up once again, allowing his offence to look a lot better. It’s easy to scoff at right now, he’s been awful from 3 this year, no doubt. But you have ppl praising Giddey and his improvement while writing off Scottie. What changed for Giddey? Suddenly he could shoot and now everything’s changed for the better.

We can't just say Scottie is gonna shoot 34-37% from 3 lol

[LoveMyRaps]

hes finishing this season 17 7 5 on 43% fg 25% from 3...let that sink in lol

Why lie?

19, 8, 6

[SkywalkerAC]

And 21 ppg per 36.

[Los_29]

And 21 ppg per 36.

Unfortunately the efficiency in which he’s scoring those points are the biggest problem. We can’t be a winning team in the future if he’s scoring so poorly.

[Indeed]

His best use will be as a trade piece. It was true year 2 and it's true today. Find a team who believes in his untapped upside and move on.

Well that is not happening obviously.

Indeed, his poison pill contract isn't something can be worked to make salary work easily.
Meanwhile, next year he will be paid the max (more than Anunoby and Ingram), we shall see.
If Barnes cannot even shoot well from 3s and space the floor for your other best players, then I am unsure what role he can be on offense. Low efficiency on-ball and low efficiency off-ball.

[HangTime]

People don't see the bigger picture of a truly selfless superstar.

Not only did he give up an opportunity, at a Super max (cap friendly), He's also has the willingness to work on things that are uncomfortable, that are compounded by both the injures, and the talent level around him.

If we just wanted him to be "great" then he wouldn't be working on the uncomfortable, and the tankers would be upset, because we wouldn't be in the lottery.

Also, most importantly, for the haters, his max contract starts next season.