Official Trade Thread Part XLIX

[Dat2U]

Peyton Watson is significantly better than any of our current SGs. Denver probably can't afford him. We would have to offer quite a bit. Bilal and a future first?

But Peyton Watson isn't an SG. He played the 3 & 4 with Denver. Tbh he's more of 3 but also he's only marginally better than Bilal while being 2 years older.

I think Watson is closer to the peak of his development curve while Bilal is still unlocking his ceiling. I certainly would not want to give up a pick to swap the two.

I'm pretty much against any roster fixes where we sacrifice youth and future assets without really knowing what this group looks like together. I mean, I have an idea but still its hard to predict the development of so many 2nd and 3rd year guys. We could see a real breakout or two by one our young guns and have a totally different outlook on this roster going forward.

I think patience is key right now, especially with the guys still on rookie contracts.

Swapping Bub for Trae in the starting lineup should really change the calculus offensively and the entire roster can benefit from the presence of an elite floor general. Regardless of how you feel about Trae's efficiency, defense or decline the last few years, he is still a 99% percentile playmaker who will create easy shots for everyone.

[payitforward]

Watson is only 13 months older than Bilal & has been in the league 1 year longer.
His 3d year numbers were no better than Bilal's.

I'm not giving up a pick or a 2d young player to replace Bilal w/ Watson.

[gambitx777]

Peyton Watson is significantly better than any of our current SGs. Denver probably can't afford him. We would have to offer quite a bit. Bilal and a future first?

By what metric is Watson any better than any one we have that can play SG. LOL. I dont see it.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

[nate33]

Watson is only 13 months older than Bilal & has been in the league 1 year longer.

Watson is 23 months older than Bilal.

[payitforward]

Watson is only 13 months older than Bilal & has been in the league 1 year longer.

Watson is 23 months older than Bilal.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/watsope01.html -- Born September 11, 2002
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/coulibi01.html -- Born October 25, 2023

13 months & 2 weeks

[AFM]

Watson is only 13 months older than Bilal & has been in the league 1 year longer.

Watson is 23 months older than Bilal.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/watsope01.html -- Born September 11, 2002
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/coulibi01.html -- Born October 25, 2023

13 months & 2 weeks

I don’t think Bilal was born in 2023. That was his NBA debut. He was born in 2004!!

[nate33]

Watson is only 13 months older than Bilale & has been in the league 1 year longer.

Bilal was born on July 26, 2004
Watson was born on Sept 11, 2002.

They are 22.5 months apart.

[gambitx777]

Math is hard lol


Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

Math is hard lol

Math is not hard, but apparently reading poses some difficulties! Sorry, nate.... 2 years apart they are.

In any case I have little interest in Watson & no interest in trading Bilal for him!

[bsilver]

Peyton Watson is significantly better than any of our current SGs. Denver probably can't afford him. We would have to offer quite a bit. Bilal and a future first?

By what metric is Watson any better than any one we have that can play SG. LOL. I dont see it.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

Then you obviously didn't look at the metrics. Last year Watson was better than any of our current SGs.
But the key metrics are age and money. Our SGs are cheaper and younger. They could develop into a player as good as Watson.

[payitforward]

Peyton Watson is significantly better than any of our current SGs. Denver probably can't afford him. We would have to offer quite a bit. Bilal and a future first?

By what metric is Watson any better than any one we have that can play SG. LOL. I dont see it.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

Then you obviously didn't look at the metrics. Last year Watson was better than any of our current SGs.
But the key metrics are age and money. Our SGs are cheaper and younger. They could develop into a player as good as Watson.

Actually, Jamir Watkins, a rookie, was almost as productive as Watson overall -- check for yourself by looking at the two players' numbers per-36-minutes last year:

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=forall&year_min=2026&year_max=2026&player_id1=watkija01&player_id2=watsope01

Now... Jamir is by no means a typical rookie -- in fact, he's 14 months older than Watson. But, to me at least, there's some significant over-estimation going on in the case of Peyton Watson. But, even if you're high on him, I'd still say that comparing him to our other back-court guys (Bub, Will, Tre), all of whom are much younger, seems kind of pointless.

[Benjammin]

This conversation about Watson is kind of funny and ironic because he's one of the guys some people brought up in criticizing the AD deal and losing all our cap space along with going after Walker Kessler. Look what the Lakers paid for Kessler in picks and salary. But restricted free agency is a dead end for acquiring talent and regular free agency is mostly broken as well.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[nate33]

By what metric is Watson any better than any one we have that can play SG. LOL. I dont see it.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

Then you obviously didn't look at the metrics. Last year Watson was better than any of our current SGs.
But the key metrics are age and money. Our SGs are cheaper and younger. They could develop into a player as good as Watson.

Actually, Jamir Watkins, a rookie, was almost as productive as Watson overall -- check for yourself by looking at the two players' numbers per-36-minutes last year:

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=forall&year_min=2026&year_max=2026&player_id1=watkija01&player_id2=watsope01

Now... Jamir is by no means a typical rookie -- in fact, he's 14 months older than Watson. But, to me at least, there's some significant over-estimation going on in the case of Peyton Watson. But, even if you're high on him, I'd still say that comparing him to our other back-court guys (Bub, Will, Tre), all of whom are much younger, seems kind of pointless.

C’mon now. Watson is way more efficient on way higher usage playing heavy minutes as a starter and creating shots on his own.

Watkins is a low usage 5th option guy playing almost exclusively in garbage time against 3rd stringers or disinterested defenses. He only shoots when wide open and still posts a TS% 5 percent lower. Also, his 29% 3-point accuracy is a disaster for spacing.

[bsilver]

By what metric is Watson any better than any one we have that can play SG. LOL. I dont see it.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

Then you obviously didn't look at the metrics. Last year Watson was better than any of our current SGs.
But the key metrics are age and money. Our SGs are cheaper and younger. They could develop into a player as good as Watson.

Actually, Jamir Watkins, a rookie, was almost as productive as Watson overall -- check for yourself by looking at the two players' numbers per-36-minutes last year:

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=forall&year_min=2026&year_max=2026&player_id1=watkija01&player_id2=watsope01

Now... Jamir is by no means a typical rookie -- in fact, he's 14 months older than Watson. But, to me at least, there's some significant over-estimation going on in the case of Peyton Watson. But, even if you're high on him, I'd still say that comparing him to our other back-court guys (Bub, Will, Tre), all of whom are much younger, seems kind of pointless.

LOL. You love the low usage guys. Maybe Larry Nance Jr is available.
Doesn’t matter anyway. Watson has lots of suitors, and will get rewarded.

[payitforward]

Then you obviously didn't look at the metrics. Last year Watson was better than any of our current SGs.
But the key metrics are age and money. Our SGs are cheaper and younger. They could develop into a player as good as Watson.

It’s offseason, so let’s dive a little deeper into the comparison by taking other offense numbers into account.

Here are the 2 guys' numbers -- mano a mano:

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=watkija01&p1yrfrom=2026&p1yrto=2026&player_id2=watsope01&p2yrfrom=2026&p2yrto=2026

Do the per-36 minute arithmetic yourself if you like. But, to me it seems that last year -- once we consider not just FGAs & FTAs but also offensive boards, steals & turnovers --

Watson produced 17.8 points at an overall cost of 14.7 possessions
Watkins produced 12.8 points at an overall cost of 9.25 possessions

i.e. Watkins produced 5 fewer points, but he left the rest of the team an extra 5.45 possessions on offenseto use.

Now, an extra 5.45 possessions will yield something over 6 extra points at NBA average efficiency – i.e. more than the extra 5 Watson delivers. So it looks like Watson’s apparent 5-point scoring advantage has vanished, at least in its effect on team success,. Indeed, it’s been replaced by @ a 1-point deficit.

Now... it's always a mistake to be a precisionist on relatively small sets of numbers, & in effect, I’d say the two players are about equally effective -- though it’s fair to say that Watson has a slight advantage overall. & his advantage becomes more significant once we take into account the fact that he is almost 2 years younger than Jamir!

IOW, my point is not to ding Watson (though I do think he’s over-rated) but to use the comparo to highlight just how effective Watkins was as a rookie.

IOW, I think Jamir Watkins' is significantly under-rated. Leave it at that.

[payitforward]

Jamir... Jamir... Watkins... etc....

LOL. You love the low usage guys. Maybe Larry Nance Jr is available.
Doesn’t matter anyway. Watson has lots of suitors, and will get rewarded.

-- you are right. & you have a good memory too!

But, it's not so much "the low usage guys" as the analytical framework. I trust the numbers. Happy to be converted by any significant counter-arguments.

OTOH, the numbers are not what makes basketball fun! Neither to play or (more important in my old-man case!) to watch.

The numbers just allow you to understand why teams win or lose. What you have to do to win....

[dobrojim]

wait, I remember someone posting a formula that if you follow/achieve, you win! Who was that...memory slipping.

[dobrojim]

latest seems to be a AD for Embiid trade.

I think the podcasters are struggling to figure out what to write about that actually might be true.

[Benjammin]

latest seems to be a AD for Embiid trade.

I think the podcasters are struggling to figure out what to write about that actually might be true.

It would take five picks/pick swaps to even consider it and it would still be bad with Embiid's longer and larger contract and no fit with Sarr. If it's a three team trade the 76ers need to compensate the Wizards for AD and the other team for being the dumping ground for Joel. In other words slim and none.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[nate33]

latest seems to be a AD for Embiid trade.

I think the podcasters are struggling to figure out what to write about that actually might be true.

It would take five picks/pick swaps to even consider it and it would still be bad with Embiid's longer and larger contract and no fit with Sarr. If it's a three team trade the 76ers need to compensate the Wizards for AD and the other team for being the dumping ground for Joel. In other words slim and none.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Yup. The idea is utterly preposterous. Embiid remains the worst contract in the league. If we wouldn’t entertain Butler plus picks for AD, we sure as hell aren’t taking on Embiid.