The Brock Purdy Thread

[Pattersonca65]

https://fb.watch/nLWgIvKX3O/?mibextid=Cy1sNm

[Pattersonca65]

Only time he has ever popped in the gamethreads is when Purdy had a few bad throws in a row.

Reminds me of the Alex Smith trolls at the old ESPN message boards

At least Alex Smith was really bad for a long time before he was pretty good. Purdy has been nothing but really good with the exception of one game that they still should have won. Granted you can't compare the coaching or talent.

I am referring to the Harbaugh years specifically. Not so much about how good or bad he was but how obsessed a small numbers of posters were who would infect every thread topic with negative comments about Alex Smith. I posted Greg Cosells reaction to the game a minute ago here

[CrimsonCrew]

Here's that Cosell clip for those who don't want to follow the link:

Watch on YouTube

[CrimsonCrew]

Big J, I wanted to throw out a question for you. You've been somewhat dismissive of Purdy's strengths (primarily accuracy and the mental aspect of/feel for the game) because you say a talented player can learn the mental piece while a physically limited player can't suddenly become more physically talented.

If it is so easy to learn these things, why have we seen so many physically talented QBs bust?

[thesack12]

Read on Twitter

Purdy and Tua are the only QB's with + EPA against every type of coverage

[CrimsonCrew]

I was going to say Jimmy, too, but he's red for Cover 2 Man, which apparently is a pretty rare look given the number of guys with too small a sample.

[thesack12]

I was going to say Jimmy, too, but he's red for Cover 2 Man, which apparently is a pretty rare look given the number of guys with too small a sample.

Looks like about half of them haven't faced cover 2 man on more than 2 dropbacks. So yeah, seems like that type of coverage is very rarely utilized.

[Pattersonca65]

Big J, I wanted to throw out a question for you. You've been somewhat dismissive of Purdy's strengths (primarily accuracy and the mental aspect of/feel for the game) because you say a talented player can learn the mental piece while a physically limited player can't suddenly become more physically talented.

If it is so easy to learn these things, why have we seen so many physically talented QBs bust?

This. I think it is the main reason the failure rate for first round QBs is so high. Players are evaluated on physical skills. While there are some mental evaluations done, it is much harder to evaluate which QBs can make that leap to the NFL. The difference between the college game and the NFL is so large. I remember Bill Walsh stating back in the day how much different for QBs playing in the NFL is compared to college. The difference has grown since then. It isn't just processing, it is also being able to stay in the pocket. Kaepernick is a really good example of a physically gifted player who just couldn't get the mental aspect of the game down. He was still an ok QB but was going to be limited. Greg Cosell evaluated Kaep on film his last season in SF. Cosell pointed out film how Kaep simply not staying firm in the pocket and moving resulted in a blown pass play. All he did was take a step and it ruined the timing of the play and an incomplete pass.

[Big J]

Big J, I wanted to throw out a question for you. You've been somewhat dismissive of Purdy's strengths (primarily accuracy and the mental aspect of/feel for the game) because you say a talented player can learn the mental piece while a physically limited player can't suddenly become more physically talented.

If it is so easy to learn these things, why have we seen so many physically talented QBs bust?

The only reason that we have seen "so many physically talented QBs bust" is because most first round QBs picked are physically talented. If QBs were drafted in the 1st round based on just accuracy & the mental aspect of the game we'd have way more Kellen Moores, Colt Brennans, Colt McCoys, Case Keenums being considered busts. There are wayyy more of those kind of guys who can dominate college, but don't have the physical abilities needed to be good pros than the other way around.

[CrimsonCrew]

Big J, I wanted to throw out a question for you. You've been somewhat dismissive of Purdy's strengths (primarily accuracy and the mental aspect of/feel for the game) because you say a talented player can learn the mental piece while a physically limited player can't suddenly become more physically talented.

If it is so easy to learn these things, why have we seen so many physically talented QBs bust?

The only reason that we have seen "so many physically talented QBs bust" is because most first round QBs picked are physically talented. If QBs were drafted in the 1st round based on just accuracy & the mental aspect of the game we'd have way more Kellen Moores, Colt Brennans, Colt McCoys, Case Keenums being considered busts. There are wayyy more of those kind of guys who can dominate college, but don't have the physical abilities needed to be good pros than the other way around.

That explains why the bust label has been applied to talented guys more often than less talented guys. But it doesn't address my question. You have suggested - or said outright - that guys can learn the mental aspect relatively easily. So why didn't all those physically talented busts? Clearly it wasn't physical tools that held back players like Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, RGIII (granted injuries played a part there), Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Sam Darnold, etc., etc. Each of those guys had at least some fairly special physical ability, and yet each of them failed.

So again, if mastering the things that Purdy excels at is as easy as you are making it out, why couldn't these guys do it?

[Big J]

Big J, I wanted to throw out a question for you. You've been somewhat dismissive of Purdy's strengths (primarily accuracy and the mental aspect of/feel for the game) because you say a talented player can learn the mental piece while a physically limited player can't suddenly become more physically talented.

If it is so easy to learn these things, why have we seen so many physically talented QBs bust?

The only reason that we have seen "so many physically talented QBs bust" is because most first round QBs picked are physically talented. If QBs were drafted in the 1st round based on just accuracy & the mental aspect of the game we'd have way more Kellen Moores, Colt Brennans, Colt McCoys, Case Keenums being considered busts. There are wayyy more of those kind of guys who can dominate college, but don't have the physical abilities needed to be good pros than the other way around.

That explains why the bust label has been applied to talented guys more often than less talented guys. But it doesn't address my question. You have suggested - or said outright - that guys can learn the mental aspect relatively easily. So why didn't all those physically talented busts? Clearly it wasn't physical tools that held back players like Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, RGIII (granted injuries played a part there), Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Sam Darnold, etc., etc. Each of those guys had at least some fairly special physical ability, and yet each of them failed.

So again, if mastering the things that Purdy excels at is as easy as you are making it out, why couldn't these guys do it?

Not that physically talented: Quinn
Injuries: Bradford, Locker, RGIII, Wentz
Were a disappointment, but still had some success: Young, Mariota, Bortles, Winston
Didn't care enough: Russell
Terrible mechanics/too stubborn: Tebow
Bust, but could have been better in a different situation: Gabbert, Darnold
Complete bust: Lynch

[CrimsonCrew]

The only reason that we have seen "so many physically talented QBs bust" is because most first round QBs picked are physically talented. If QBs were drafted in the 1st round based on just accuracy & the mental aspect of the game we'd have way more Kellen Moores, Colt Brennans, Colt McCoys, Case Keenums being considered busts. There are wayyy more of those kind of guys who can dominate college, but don't have the physical abilities needed to be good pros than the other way around.

That explains why the bust label has been applied to talented guys more often than less talented guys. But it doesn't address my question. You have suggested - or said outright - that guys can learn the mental aspect relatively easily. So why didn't all those physically talented busts? Clearly it wasn't physical tools that held back players like Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, RGIII (granted injuries played a part there), Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Sam Darnold, etc., etc. Each of those guys had at least some fairly special physical ability, and yet each of them failed.

So again, if mastering the things that Purdy excels at is as easy as you are making it out, why couldn't these guys do it?

Not that physically talented: Quinn
Injuries: Bradford, Locker, RGIII, Wentz
Were a disappointment, but still had some success: Young, Mariota, Bortles, Winston
Didn't care enough: Russell
Bust, but could have been better in a different situation: Gabbert, Darnold
Complete bust: Lynch
Tebow never should have been a first rounder. He would have been better as a Taysom Hill type.

I'm sorry, Brady Quinn wasn't that physically talented? Dude was just shy of 6'4", 232 pounds. He ran 4.73 in the 40, had a 36" vertical, a 9'7" broad, 24 reps on the bench, 6.79 on the three-cone, and 4.22 in the short shuttle. Those are elite athleticism numbers for a QB. His arm strength wasn't special, but it was solid.

Even with the injuries, Sam Bradford had numerous chances to show he could play in the league, and he never did. Same deal with Wentz, who is healthy and could be in the league today if anyone wanted him. Locker dealt with a lot of injuries, but he wasn't particularly good when he was healthy. And a lot of his injuries were the result of a lack of awareness.

A disappointment but still some success is an awfully odd way to evaluate guys when the bar you're setting for Purdy is winning the Super Bowl.

Gabbert has persistently failed despite multiple opportunities in different situations. I guess the jury is still out a little bit on Darnold, but we can say from what we've seen ourselves this offseason and preseason that he still doesn't see the field well and struggles to go through progressions.

You say Tebow should not have been a first rounder, but his athleticism and arm strength were elite. If those are the most important things for playing QB, why did he fail? And in what ways is Tebow different from Lance? Frankly, Tebow was the more physically gifted player. Clearly a better runner, and his arm strength is at least comparable.

[Big J]

That explains why the bust label has been applied to talented guys more often than less talented guys. But it doesn't address my question. You have suggested - or said outright - that guys can learn the mental aspect relatively easily. So why didn't all those physically talented busts? Clearly it wasn't physical tools that held back players like Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, RGIII (granted injuries played a part there), Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Sam Darnold, etc., etc. Each of those guys had at least some fairly special physical ability, and yet each of them failed.

So again, if mastering the things that Purdy excels at is as easy as you are making it out, why couldn't these guys do it?

Not that physically talented: Quinn
Injuries: Bradford, Locker, RGIII, Wentz
Were a disappointment, but still had some success: Young, Mariota, Bortles, Winston
Didn't care enough: Russell
Bust, but could have been better in a different situation: Gabbert, Darnold
Complete bust: Lynch
Tebow never should have been a first rounder. He would have been better as a Taysom Hill type.

I'm sorry, Brady Quinn wasn't that physically talented? Dude was just shy of 6'4", 232 pounds. He ran 4.73 in the 40, had a 36" vertical, a 9'7" broad, 24 reps on the bench, 6.79 on the three-cone, and 4.22 in the short shuttle. Those are elite athleticism numbers for a QB. His arm strength wasn't special, but it was solid.

Even with the injuries, Sam Bradford had numerous chances to show he could play in the league, and he never did. Same deal with Wentz, who is healthy and could be in the league today if anyone wanted him. Locker dealt with a lot of injuries, but he wasn't particularly good when he was healthy. And a lot of his injuries were the result of a lack of awareness.

A disappointment but still some success is an awfully odd way to evaluate guys when the bar you're setting for Purdy is winning the Super Bowl.

Gabbert has persistently failed despite multiple opportunities in different situations. I guess the jury is still out a little bit on Darnold, but we can say from what we've seen ourselves this offseason and preseason that he still doesn't see the field well and struggles to go through progressions.

You say Tebow should not have been a first rounder, but his athleticism and arm strength were elite. If those are the most important things for playing QB, why did he fail? And in what ways is Tebow different from Lance? Frankly, Tebow was the more physically gifted player. Clearly a better runner, and his arm strength is at least comparable.

Tebow's mechanics were terrible, and he was incredibly stubborn. He could have become great in a Taysom Hill type role, but he refused to do that. He never tried to change his mechanics, so he was probably too stubborn to do that too.

The bar for Purdy is winning the Superbowl because that is what the bar for this Niners team is. No one is going to be happy with anything less than that. Those guys were all in worse situations than what Purdy has now.

Wentz was the MVP frontrunner the year the Eagles won the SB before he got hurt.

[CrimsonCrew]

Tebow's mechanics were terrible, and he was incredibly stubborn. He could have become great in a Taysom Hill type role, but he refused to do that. He never tried to change his mechanics, so he was probably too stubborn to do that too.

The bar for Purdy is winning the Superbowl because that is what the bar for this Niners team is. No one is going to be happy with anything less than that. Those guys were all in worse situations than what Purdy has now.

Wentz was the MVP frontrunner the year the Eagles won the SB before he got hurt.

Lance's mechanics were terrible. He seems to have improved them somewhat, but he still flat-out missed routine throws with some regularity when we last saw him in game action.

Wentz was the MVP front-runner. And he started 39 games for the Eagles after that, and 24 games after leaving the Eagles, and is now out of the league. It's not because of any lack of physical ability or because he got injured. It's because - shockingly - there's more to playing QB in the NFL than pure physical ability.

[Big J]

Tebow's mechanics were terrible, and he was incredibly stubborn. He could have become great in a Taysom Hill type role, but he refused to do that. He never tried to change his mechanics, so he was probably too stubborn to do that too.

The bar for Purdy is winning the Superbowl because that is what the bar for this Niners team is. No one is going to be happy with anything less than that. Those guys were all in worse situations than what Purdy has now.

Wentz was the MVP frontrunner the year the Eagles won the SB before he got hurt.

Lance's mechanics were terrible. He seems to have improved them somewhat, but he still flat-out missed routine throws with some regularity when we last saw him in game action.

Wentz was the MVP front-runner. And he started 39 games for the Eagles after that, and 24 games after leaving the Eagles, and is now out of the league. It's not because of any lack of physical ability or because he got injured. It's because - shockingly - there's more to playing QB in the NFL than pure physical ability.

It takes time for guys to improve their accuracy after they change their mechanics, like a couple of years before you start seeing results. Look at Josh Allen. His accuracy is night and day from his rookie year.

Wentz lost a lot when he tore his ACL. He also broke a vertebrae. Injuries like that can make QBs afraid to take hits and start watching the pass rush instead of looking downfield.

[CrimsonCrew]

Tebow's mechanics were terrible, and he was incredibly stubborn. He could have become great in a Taysom Hill type role, but he refused to do that. He never tried to change his mechanics, so he was probably too stubborn to do that too.

The bar for Purdy is winning the Superbowl because that is what the bar for this Niners team is. No one is going to be happy with anything less than that. Those guys were all in worse situations than what Purdy has now.

Wentz was the MVP frontrunner the year the Eagles won the SB before he got hurt.

Lance's mechanics were terrible. He seems to have improved them somewhat, but he still flat-out missed routine throws with some regularity when we last saw him in game action.

Wentz was the MVP front-runner. And he started 39 games for the Eagles after that, and 24 games after leaving the Eagles, and is now out of the league. It's not because of any lack of physical ability or because he got injured. It's because - shockingly - there's more to playing QB in the NFL than pure physical ability.

It takes time for guys to improve their accuracy after they change their mechanics, like a couple of years before you start seeing results. Look at Josh Allen. His accuracy is night and day from his rookie year.

Wentz lost a lot when he tore his ACL. He also broke a vertebrae. Injuries like that can make QBs afraid to take hits and start watching the pass rush instead of looking downfield.

Sure, there is almost never a single reason why any player busts. But at the end of the day, a lot of guys with physical tools have failed in this league for reasons that relate strongly to their inability to see the field, make quick decisions, throw with accuracy and timing, play under pressure, etc. Those things are not easily quantified the way pure athleticism and arm strength can be, but they are every bit as important and almost certainly more so.

[Big J]

Lance's mechanics were terrible. He seems to have improved them somewhat, but he still flat-out missed routine throws with some regularity when we last saw him in game action.

Wentz was the MVP front-runner. And he started 39 games for the Eagles after that, and 24 games after leaving the Eagles, and is now out of the league. It's not because of any lack of physical ability or because he got injured. It's because - shockingly - there's more to playing QB in the NFL than pure physical ability.

It takes time for guys to improve their accuracy after they change their mechanics, like a couple of years before you start seeing results. Look at Josh Allen. His accuracy is night and day from his rookie year.

Wentz lost a lot when he tore his ACL. He also broke a vertebrae. Injuries like that can make QBs afraid to take hits and start watching the pass rush instead of looking downfield.

Sure, there is almost never a single reason why any player busts. But at the end of the day, a lot of guys with physical tools have failed in this league for reasons that relate strongly to their inability to see the field, make quick decisions, throw with accuracy and timing, play under pressure, etc. Those things are not easily quantified the way pure athleticism and arm strength can be, but they are every bit as important and almost certainly more so.

True, but I still think that acquiring accuracy & timing is a helluva lot easier than physical skills. Josh Allen is a good example of this.

[CrimsonCrew]

It takes time for guys to improve their accuracy after they change their mechanics, like a couple of years before you start seeing results. Look at Josh Allen. His accuracy is night and day from his rookie year.

Wentz lost a lot when he tore his ACL. He also broke a vertebrae. Injuries like that can make QBs afraid to take hits and start watching the pass rush instead of looking downfield.

Sure, there is almost never a single reason why any player busts. But at the end of the day, a lot of guys with physical tools have failed in this league for reasons that relate strongly to their inability to see the field, make quick decisions, throw with accuracy and timing, play under pressure, etc. Those things are not easily quantified the way pure athleticism and arm strength can be, but they are every bit as important and almost certainly more so.

True, but I still think that acquiring accuracy & timing is a helluva lot easier than physical skills. Josh Allen is a good example of this.

Josh Allen is one of a very few guys who we have seen dramatically improve accuracy from college to the pros. It's not that easy, and inaccurate college passers (as Lance was) tend to stay inaccurate.

Also, a guy like Allen creates larger openings with his physical ability. Teams have to defend him differently, keeping extra players our of coverage to contain his running, etc. Now, that's a big part of why he's so darn good. But it does raise some questions about his ability to sustain his high level of play as his natural physical ability erodes.

Along those lines, that's why a guy like Brady, Manning or Brees (admittedly extreme examples of success) are able to play so late in their careers. They can continue to thrive when they are no longer able to make an impact as runners (not that the ever did). Part of why I'd prioritize the mental aspect combined with a baseline physical skillset over elite physical skills but mediocre or poor mental abilities.

[Big J]

Sure, there is almost never a single reason why any player busts. But at the end of the day, a lot of guys with physical tools have failed in this league for reasons that relate strongly to their inability to see the field, make quick decisions, throw with accuracy and timing, play under pressure, etc. Those things are not easily quantified the way pure athleticism and arm strength can be, but they are every bit as important and almost certainly more so.

True, but I still think that acquiring accuracy & timing is a helluva lot easier than physical skills. Josh Allen is a good example of this.

Josh Allen is one of a very few guys who we have seen dramatically improve accuracy from college to the pros. It's not that easy, and inaccurate college passers (as Lance was) tend to stay inaccurate.

Also, a guy like Allen creates larger openings with his physical ability. Teams have to defend him differently, keeping extra players our of coverage to contain his running, etc. Now, that's a big part of why he's so darn good. But it does raise some questions about his ability to sustain his high level of play as his natural physical ability erodes.

Along those lines, that's why a guy like Brady, Manning or Brees (admittedly extreme examples of success) are able to play so late in their careers. They can continue to thrive when they are no longer able to make an impact as runners (not that the ever did). Part of why I'd prioritize the mental aspect combined with a baseline physical skillset over elite physical skills but mediocre or poor mental abilities.

Lance wasn't that inaccurate in college though. He was completing 65% of his balls there. Purdy completed 67% in college which isn't even that much better. Prioritizing the mental aspect is important, but a guy like Lance has barely played enough. How do we know that he's not going to get better at reading defenses when he's played 1 season of lower level college ball, and like 3 regular season NFL games.

[CrimsonCrew]

True, but I still think that acquiring accuracy & timing is a helluva lot easier than physical skills. Josh Allen is a good example of this.

Josh Allen is one of a very few guys who we have seen dramatically improve accuracy from college to the pros. It's not that easy, and inaccurate college passers (as Lance was) tend to stay inaccurate.

Also, a guy like Allen creates larger openings with his physical ability. Teams have to defend him differently, keeping extra players our of coverage to contain his running, etc. Now, that's a big part of why he's so darn good. But it does raise some questions about his ability to sustain his high level of play as his natural physical ability erodes.

Along those lines, that's why a guy like Brady, Manning or Brees (admittedly extreme examples of success) are able to play so late in their careers. They can continue to thrive when they are no longer able to make an impact as runners (not that the ever did). Part of why I'd prioritize the mental aspect combined with a baseline physical skillset over elite physical skills but mediocre or poor mental abilities.

Lance wasn't that inaccurate in college though. He was completing 65% of his balls there. Purdy completed 67% in college which isn't even that much better. Prioritizing the mental aspect is important, but a guy like Lance has barely played enough. How do we know that he's not going to get better at reading defenses when he's played 1 season of lower level college ball, and like 3 regular season NFL games.

His completion percentage was fine, but he wasn't an accurate passer if you watch the film. You talk a lot about Purdy's favorable system in the pros. Lance's college system was very favorable. Run-first team, superior physical players to their competition at basically every position. He just didn't have to throw into coverage very often. He would routinely miss easy throws, and was quite inaccurate throwing deep, regularly putting balls several yards out of bounds.

Re: Lance vs. Purdy in college, Lance's team was much more talented relative to the talent level of its competition. He was basically playing with Alabama or Georgia type talent at that level.

As said, I think they gave up on Lance too quickly, but it's definitely not a given that he ever makes the leap even to the level Purdy is at now in terms of vision, anticipation, awareness, etc. On the contrary, based on what he did show in this third offseason/pre-season, I think the likelihood of it is relatively slim. Yes, he clearly needed reps to improve. But when he got reps, he often looked lost.