lilfishi22 wrote:Ghost of Kleine wrote:lilfishi22 wrote:Any deal for Zion will almost guarantee we blow up what we have right now. The guy makes $40m which mean you need to trade some combination of Brooks, Green, Grayson and Royce. Now I understand if it's purely a salary play to make room for guys like CG, Williams and giving us some cap flexibility in the medium term but that would mean this team, this identity and the way we play is going to fundamentally change. The fact is, he's had more sub-30 games played season than he's had 60+ games played season. We're more than likely not going to get Zion for less than half the season so we could probably say goodbye to any sort of potential playoff run. And it's also not guaranteed his contract is fully non-guaranteed next season either, he could go on a healthy run and a decent chunk of his $42m salary next season gets guaranteed. Then you'll go through this again next season for the following season's salary.
I also just don't think he's the kind of player/attitude I want on this team. Everyone on this team from top to bottom gives it their all and sacrifices for the team. I just don't think Zion is that guy. He's talented for sure but talent isn't everything (see KD/Beal.) Nah I rather not go for the talent play and keep the guys who want to be here, want to compete and is willing to do everything to put themselves in the best position to be able to contribute to this team.
I of course understand your apprehension over this thought experiment given his documented health and durability issues and potential lack of overall discipline (at least in their environment)??
And I wouldn't really want to surrender any of J Green, Dunn or Brooks for Zion necessarily either if I could keep them. And as you probably know, Allen is one of my favorite players along with J Green too as much as I've promoted Green. But honestly, I'm of the mind that players can change in different situations, and possibly excel with a change of scenery.
I think that a big underlying part of Zion's problems can he attributed to New Orleans terrible ownership and front office management as well as Zion's personal entourage/ friends. But
if brought into a more structured environment with level headed leadership, and better supporting cast, he could experience a completely different outcome.
And that's not even considering that he'd have a lot to prove as potential motivation to show people that he is worthy of his draft status, etc. I get the implied risks, but even if he couldn't get it together and play consistently, then his contract wouldn't be guaranteed.
But
if he somehow did manage to get healthy and play, then as dominant as he is when on the court, and playing alongside of Booker and others, we'd bank a bunch of wins at minimum and at least be a solid playoff team that would minimize the outgoing value of the picks in 27 and 29.
And since Zion currently only makes $39 million on his 3 yr deal, if we sent a package of J Green, O'neale and Richards, that'd be upwards of $ 48 million. So 8 million more than his incoming salary. Giving them probably the best talent value they could realistically get.
But more importantly, it would allow us to keep Booker, Brooks, Gillespie, Allen, Williams and Dunn.
We could then feature a lineup of:
Booker/ Allen/ Brooks/ Zion/ Williams.
Gillespie/ NHD / Dunn/ Ighodaro/ Maluach.
Bouyea/ Brea / FA / Flemming/ draft?
Sure we might have to throw in a Maluach to top off the value possibly. But there's very solid backup center options in free agency and the draft that can fill the gap if necessary. It really just depends upon potential framework.
And for a legitimate "Alpha" (1A option) star, considering that we have no legitimate cap flexibility, and no legitimate draft picks either for the next half decade, landing a player of Zion's generational talent and abilities, in an extreme buy low scenario ( due to implied risks) may he the very best swing to maximize Booker's remaining prime here.
Because
if Zion could at all work out, an inside out duo of Booker and Zion would make ous legitimate contenders, especially if we also could somehow keep Brooks, Dunn and Williams. Best of all, keeping Allen and Gillespie alongside Booker would give us elite shooting to perfectly compliment Zion's unstoppable inside game. And Williams would cover defensively in the paint too.
And imagine the lobs from Booker and Gillespie to a Zion and Williams frontcourt duo.
Even if I accept your argument that a change in scenery is going to magically improve his attitude, I don't buy and I don't think ANYONE should seriously buy a change in scenario is going to meaningfully change the health of a player who has only played 224 out of a possible 505 games. I don't care to imagine the lobs or whatever to Zion/Williams because neither of these guys have a history of playing a lot of games.
I also don't buy he's what "A1 alpha" " you describe him as. The guy has never even been in the conversation for an all-defensive team so how the hell could he be an alpha player or whatever lol Book has way more of a case for being an alpha star than Zion and I don't consider him to be an alpha star.
From even before the draft and now into his 7th season in the league, the Zion story has been one of "ifs". If he could stay healthy, if he could improve his shooting, if he could cared more about his diet, if he could improve his conditioning, if he gave more effort on defense, if he could mature and improve on his work ethic.....if if if
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I'm not asking you to accept my " argument" man as it's merely a discussion topic based from a matter of differing opinions which is fine to disagree with. And I respect yours and others views even if I don't share that perspective altogether.
Again, everyone's only legitimate argument against Zion Williamson is his concerns over him actually being able to play/ his durability concerns. But I'll remind you that without those concerns, he wouldn't even he available and would likely be untouchable. Because as much as people may consider him a lost cause and a bust or whatever, when he plays, he's putting up MVP level production ( per 36).
You make the argument that a change of scenery / scenario shouldn't change his health outcome, but surrounding players with better situations, mentors, leadership, management, etc. Can all affect changes of outcome. Accountability and dietary changes, I also mentioned his personal influences too.
Let me ask you, what positive influences has ye really had in New Orleans since being drafted man? What leadership/ front office accountability or even solid veteran mentorship has he had in his time there??
How would you rate New Orleans front office, their roster, etc? Mostly young guys left to figure things out absent accountability and even after only recently adding McCollum and Murray to their roster, would you reasonably consider that strong positive influences/ mentorship? Sure his health is a major concern!! But can a player NOT be able to get healthy and make dietary and training changes and improve? Is it somehow an impossibility??
Also, these same concerns, mitigated by his contractual inclusions, so if he doesn't play a specific amount of games, then that money could be cleared. So it's an implied risk for sure, but not as severe as many are making it out to be ( IF you believe that you can salvage him in a new/ different situation.
And that should be the real talking point here! You also say he shouldn't be considered as an MVP level talent/ "alpha" 1A tier player because he's never been listed or voted to an all defensive team, but honestly, look at some of the players that are in the MVP discussion currently, players like Jokic, Doncic, Harden, D Mitchell, ANT, Curry, KAT etc.
How many of those players are/ have been actually all defensive considerations? Not all players that are or have been in these discussions have been known as/ voted for all defensive accolades man.
Remember that there's two sides of the court, and even apart from that, voting on such things is highly subjective and based upon popularity / market size and other factors too. Is Zion's per 36 production somehow not in the realm of MVP discussions?
The NBA is full of what ifs' but the teams that make hig outcomes happen take risks, take chances, etc. Just usually not on aging players. But it's not uncommon to take a chance on a change of scenery outcome variance at times.
For so long we've talked about chasing disgruntled stars or stars in bad situations that might have better outcomes if here ............right??? If we never took such chances, we'd never have had the Barkley outcome, J Green was unwanted here by many too prior to the Houston trade.
There's good and bad considerations with any risks you consider. But just as you might argue against a Zion consideration due to his durability concerns/ history being established, the flip side of that coin is what he's shown statistically and impactfully when he's played. And those very concerns having clauses included to mitigate such risks.
The only big question is health, because if he can get healthier and play more, our ceiling when paired with Booker becomes so much more than just a treadmilling 2nd round playoff or playin team! And the value in that not only minimizes our remaining time with Booker in his prime, but also it dramatically mitigates the potential outgoing value of surrendered picks we've given up in 27' and 29'.
And worst case scenario, it doesn't work out and he can't meet his benchmark clauses to play and he healthy, then you trade him elsewhere or waive him and clear upwards of 44 million the following summer to be legitimate players in a loaded 2027 free agency that we otherwise couldn't do because of Beal's dead money and Booker's supermax. Or use that money to extend Gillespie and Williams accordingly if you have to waive him.
The key would be the framework and keeping Brooks, Gillespie, Williams, Allen, Dunn. Zion's salary is 39 million. So maybe you'd have to give up a package of J Green, O'neale, Richards and one of Maluach or Flemming.
It'd really depend upon how well we'd negotiate. But players like Zion rarely if ever become available and certainly not for pennies on the dollar man. The implied risk is the only reason he's even available at all. That's why you carefully weigh all perspectives to always try and improve and maximize our trajectory outcome.
