2012 NBA Draft - Part III

[dobrojim]

but lets at least hope Melo has a hot next 4-7 games, however
long it takes to knock LeTrav and his team out of the playoffs.

That would be schweeet.

[Dat2U]

Carmelo has played much better lately. Like a top 10 offensive player. That version of Carmelo is one of the better players in the league however he's never been a top 5 player or offensive player so he's been overrated in that aspect.

[The Consiglieri]

Not a fan of Melo. He is very good at beating guys off the dribble and attacking the rim but he can't jump so he gets his shots blocked a lot inside. Plus once he puts his head down and drives he is going to shoot no matter how many people are on him.

Add in his mediocre jumper and I think he is definitely overrated offensively.

I think he's overrated period. The big problem I have with him is that many people consider him a franchise player, a max player, a franchise talent, and he isn't, period. He's nowhere near top 5 or top 10 in the league in my view, but some think he is. Good for them, but I've seen what he's accomplished and it isn't all that impressive. As others have mentioned, the Nuggets were absolutely fine w/o him, and the Knicks played at their best this year only when he was out with injury AND when he played at his very best, which is something he doesn't consistently do because he's such a ball dominant player. If he's a little off, he absolutely kills you. I think he's in discussion somewhere between 10 and 20, and he's shockingly clutch (granted its not a reasonable metric, but the guy is about 1 billion times more clutch than Kobe in terms of last second shots, which is kind of schoking), but I'd never trade for him, or sign him to the max EVER. It would be a total fools errand, and we've engaged in FAR too many of those.

[Dat2U]

Carmelo at his best is the 3rd best SF in the league. At his worst, he's still probably 4th.

1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Paul Pierce

When looking at both SGs & SFs you'd have a hard time coming up with guys better than Carmelo beyond the usual suspects LeBron, Durant, Kobe, Wade & Manu.

So while Carmelo may be overrated, it''s a bit much to say he's not very good or he's not a winner. He's just probably a bad fit alongside another ball dominate forward in Amare.

[The Consiglieri]

For sure, i contradicted myself a bit, saying nowhere near 5th to 10th, then saying he fits 10th to 20th lol. I think he's somewhere in that area, id probably slide him in between 13 and 17th or so.

[doclinkin]

We're drafting Carmelo Anthony?


Maybe I need to read back a few pages...

[montestewart]

We're drafting Carmelo Anthony?


Maybe I need to read back a few pages...

In the never ending search for the next Carmelo Anthony, someone has submitted Terrence Jones' resume and head shot.

[doclinkin]

Hmmn. I think I'd rather have Terrence Jones. He plays defense and rebounds.

[montestewart]

He'd certainly be a better fit on our team. I think CCJ was talking him up. I generally leave the college player analysis to you guys and just read it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This time last season I remember posting about Charles Jenkins of Hofstra. He had his jersey retired and somewhere they had a "Charles Jenkins Day". IIRC Jenkins had been the NYC player of the year and he destroyed competition at a smaller school in a lesser conference. I remember posting Jenkins shot the deep ball better than Jimmer in NCAA play, and I that I thought Jenkins could be a better pro than Jimmer Fredette. (Nivek, are you tired of reading yet? I agree with you that it is tiresome to hear people pat themselves on the back. ) Seems like just going by the numbers that wasn't far off.

For a long time it looked like Jenkins might not pan out, but by the end of the season he was as impressive as Klay Thompson some nights. Jenkins certainly had a better rookie season than Jimmer did, but even Jimmer showed some signs in the middle of the season.

This time of year when I read folks telling me my ideas to trade down don't make sense I have faith in my opinions. I get some wrong, but still, I get my share right. Especially so when I predict the draft picks who should pan out.

[The Consiglieri]

Its just alarming that before his run in late feb/march, T. Jones was being compared to Antoine Walker as a prospect, and that was explaining why his ranking slotwise had plummeted about 4-8 slots from the summer to january. He finished things up well and elevated his ranking, the flowers stunt also probably helped his cause a little, softening the image a bit.

I loved him when he was undervalued (10-14th overall) i don't like him at 7th (the high end of where he could go) though I think he could represent nice value at the end of the top 10.

[doclinkin]

Bradley Beal.

One of my measures of next level success is what happens to a player's number when they face the top ranked competition. If he's able to continue to do what he does best against the best competition, then his numbers should translate. With BB23 for most of the year that was definitely not the case.

Granted Florida played against all the big time defensive monsters this year, Ohio State, Cuse and Kentucky will give anybody troubles. But those are the guys he'll be playing in the NBA. So let's take a look at the numbers for which he's being considered (2pt%, rebounding):

#3 Ohio State: shot 6-16 for .375 At least he put up decent 3pt% hitting 3 of 7. Took 3 boards. Turned it over 5 times, only took 2 free throws. One block one steal.

#3 Syracuse: 2-9, 0-5 from 3fg for an overall .222 percentage. Rebounded well against the 'Cuse zone, notable for their troubles in boards work. Beal took 10 boards. Also coughed it up 5 times against Waiters.

Played Kentucky 3 times:
#1 Kentucky: 5-15 overall .333, 1-7 from 3FG, 3-4 FT, Took a respectable 6 boards.
#1 KENTUCKY: 1-10 overall, 1-5 from 3FG, 2-2 FT, A solid 7 boards.
#1 KENTUCKY 8-15 overall for .533 shooting, hit a nice 4-7 from 3FG, took 8 boards 1block, 1 steal, no TOs.

All losses.

Then he came on strong in the Tourney.

So the question is which is more reflective of his game? The clunkers of those first 5 games against NBA talent? Or the good game against KY and his subsequent tourney run.

Given that he's a freshman and a young one at that I'm happy to turn it into a positive and say he was able to make late-season adjustments, he's a quick study. Still while his 50%+ from two is nice, he does show a below the rim athleticism on most of these finishes, with body ball-control contortionism finessing the ball through the hoop. That seems to be reflected when he was shooting blanks against those tough interior defenses.

That said, I like how he was able to still take boards against Kentucky's bigguns. And rising to take the spotlight in the tourney shows he's willing to shoulder the load as needed. Without a multi-year track record I'm happy to look at his freshman season as evidence that his game will progress. I guess. Still, I'm less sanguine that his high 2pt FG% will swiftly translate. He will need to make further adjustments and find his spots.

I guess I'm 50/50 on the Beal vs MKG argument. Had been leaning a trade-dwon for Beal to pick up more talent. But I can see where Kidd-G will really create a defensive monster out of this team, though we'll only be able to score on the fast break after stops and steals. Or if Seraphin and Nene continue in this vein, on the interior/midrange.

Beal has better synergy with Wall et al, though I'm not convinced that we couldn't get an approximation of what he does best by picking up players deeper in the draft. Whereas as far as defensive intensity and gluesmanship nobody has what MKG does. Is Beal and all-star at what he does? I dunno. I can think of a few in the league who are surely better. I do think MKG will pick up an all-NBA defense 1st team nod.

So Beal + picks vs MKG straight-up is now my balancing point.

[hands11]

Bradley Beal.

One of my measures of next level success is what happens to a player's number when they face the top ranked competition. If he's able to continue to do what he does best against the best competition, then his numbers should translate. With BB23 for most of the year that was definitely not the case.

Granted Florida played against all the big time defensive monsters this year, Ohio State, Cuse and Kentucky will give anybody troubles. But those are the guys he'll be playing in the NBA. So let's take a look at the numbers for which he's being considered (2pt%, rebounding):

#3 Ohio State: shot 6-16 for .375 At least he put up decent 3pt% hitting 3 of 7. Took 3 boards. Turned it over 5 times, only took 2 free throws. One block one steal.

#3 Syracuse: 2-9, 0-5 from 3fg for an overall .222 percentage. Rebounded well against the 'Cuse zone, notable for their troubles in boards work. Beal took 10 boards. Also coughed it up 5 times against Waiters.

Played Kentucky 3 times:
#1 Kentucky: 5-15 overall .333, 1-7 from 3FG, 3-4 FT, Took a respectable 6 boards.
#1 KENTUCKY: 1-10 overall, 1-5 from 3FG, 2-2 FT, A solid 7 boards.
#1 KENTUCKY 8-15 overall for .533 shooting, hit a nice 4-7 from 3FG, took 8 boards 1block, 1 steal, no TOs.

All losses.

Then he came on strong in the Tourney. So the question is which is more reflective of his game? The clunkers of those first 5 games against NBA talent? Or the good game against KY and his subsequent tourney run. Given that he's a freshman and a young one at that I'm happy to turn it into a positive and say he was able to make late-season adjustments, he's a quick study. Still while his 50%+ from two is nice, he does show a below the rim athleticism on most of these finishes, with body ball-control contortionism finessing the ball through the hoop. That seems to be reflected when he was shooting blanks against those tough interior defenses. That said, I like how he was able to still take boards against Kentucky's bigguns. And rising to take the spotlight in the tourney shows he's willing to shoulder the load as needed.

I would look at how he finished. He is 18. I'm not looking for any of these top pick to come in and make a huge difference their first year. All except Robinson are just babies. Not like he we draft any of the 18 year old that they would start to begin the season. Any of them will have lots of learning to do.

So when do they do the ping pong balls?

[Earth2Ted]

my prediction on the 1st 5 picks:

1) New Orleans: Davis
2) Portland: MKG
3) Raptors: Beal
4) Charlotte: Robinson
5) Wiz: "Man of Means" Drummond

This based on a) basic conspiracy theory that the Hornets are league-owned and they are hosting the 2014 All Star game, and b) teams that lose their tiebreakers almost always move up.

Personally, I have not been real high on Beal and MKG mostly because they hadn't done all that much in the games I watched, but now that I am hearing about MKG's leadership qualities at a very young age I am warming up to him- hopefully that is a guy that will push himself and his teammates to defend, pass the ball, make open shots and just do whatever it takes to get better.

But my feeling right now is that we will be at either 4 or 5, and will be looking at Robinson and Drummond- and I think I would be in the minority of folks here that would be fine with either one.

Edited to add: just realized the Blazers get the Nets pick this year.

[DallasShalDune]

I feel certain that the Hornets and Nets will pick ahead of us. Losing a coin toss has been a good omen in recent years. I'm hoping for at least 3rd pick.

Even if we get 4 or 5, I bet Beal will be there.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Bradley Beal.

One of my measures of next level success is what happens to a player's number when they face the top ranked competition. If he's able to continue to do what he does best against the best competition, then his numbers should translate. With BB23 for most of the year that was definitely not the case. ...

I would look at how he finished. He is 18. I'm not looking for any of these top pick to come in and make a huge difference their first year. All except Robinson are just babies. Not like he we draft any of the 18 year old that they would start to begin the season. Any of them will have lots of learning to do.

So when do they do the ping pong balls?

I agree with hands, but I have one exception to the rule.

doc, I would look for NBA-seasoned free agents to be able to contribute right away but not necessarily so from a "one-year-and-done" NCAA phenomenon. I have a hard time seeing Brad Beal rule in the NBA next season. OTOH guys like Eric Gordon, Brandon Rush, Danny Green, Gerald Green, etcetera have the age/experience and are proven able to hit perimeter shots and/or defend well in the NBA. Most of the 18 year-old guards and swing men aren't coming in from the NCAAs ready to play grown man ball at a high level IMO. Like hands said, those guys are (IMO mostly) babies.

An exception from this past draft is Kawhi Leonard.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... aka01.html

Leonard's stats are freaky good. If I had to say who was the best rookie, I might rate Leonard above even Faried or Irving. He had great steals and assists per turnover. He rebounded at a high level. He converted his FTs well. Surprisingly, Leonard shot the NBA three much better than he shot the college three. He hit .376 on three point shots. Kawhi Leonard gets a ton of praise from Greg Popovich for his excellent defense.

http://www.nerdnumbers.com/splits?team= ... F26%2F2012

Since the trade deadline, Leonard ended up having the highest rating on the Spurs, finishing slightly ahead of Manu Ginobili, and outdistancing an impressive Danny Green. That brings me full circle. Leonard is seriously talented and if I were to project, I would say Kawhi might be BETTER than Shawn Marion, his pre-draft comparison.

Beal gets compared to Eric Gordon and Ray Allen. Kidd-Gilchrist is most often compared to Gerald Wallace and Scottie Pippen. Both guys are studs. Nivek's rating system, YODA, grades Beal up there with some HOF-type players. If Leonard had such a good rookie season at 20, why couldn't either of these two have a good rookie season at 19? Kawhi had two NCAA seasons, (like Terrance Jones). Could he be more physically and mentally ready than these guys will be in 2012-2013? Or, are Beal and MKG both prodigies who will step in and dominate the same as Leonard even at one year younger?

I think for the most part the Wizards would be better off with a stop gap, solid veteran at SG or SF, while they wait for a young stud to mature. I don't expect Kawhi Leonard-type, instant success from Beal or MKG. Leonard was a BEAST on the boards and he's been really hardened by his father's murder. But then again so is MKG. I didn't really see MKG carrying Kentucky. Beal took a while to come on at Florida and he had to share too much spotlight with a lot of players. In the end, Louisville negated him. Leonard OTOH went out of the NCAAs much like Faried, kicking ass and taking names.

I don't have answers but the more I wonder what is going to happen draft night the more excited I get.

[DallasShalDune]

my prediction on the 1st 5 picks:

1) New Orleans: Davis
2) Portland: MKG
3) Raptors: Beal
4) Charlotte: Robinson
5) Wiz: "Man of Means" Drummond

This based on a) basic conspiracy theory that the Hornets are league-owned and they are hosting the 2014 All Star game, and b) teams that lose their tiebreakers almost always move up.

Personally, I have not been real high on Beal and MKG mostly because they hadn't done all that much in the games I watched, but now that I am hearing about MKG's leadership qualities at a very young age I am warming up to him- hopefully that is a guy that will push himself and his teammates to defend, pass the ball, make open shots and just do whatever it takes to get better.

But my feeling right now is that we will be at either 4 or 5, and will be looking at Robinson and Drummond- and I think I would be in the minority of folks here that would be fine with either one.

Edited to add: just realized the Blazers get the Nets pick this year.

If we slip to 5, I bet Barnes will be in the mix.

[hands11]

I feel certain that the Hornets and Nets will pick ahead of us. Losing a coin toss has been a good omen in recent years. I'm hoping for at least 3rd pick.

Even if we get 4 or 5, I bet Beal will be there.

I doubt he is there at 5

[hands11]

Great rant CCJ

Hey, I have something for you'll to consider.

I was just looking up the top 10 scoring SF in the NBA.

Without looking, how many do you guess are shorter then 6-8 ?

Top 3 are

KD 6-9 235
LeBron 6-8 250
Melo 6-8 230

One quality I want in a SF is something I don't see talked about here much. I want them to be able to palm the ball. That allows them to more easily set up their player.

The Wiz currently have 3 players 6-8. One currently plays SF 6-8 230. The other two are 6-8 230 and 6-8 240

And before someone types the incredibly obvious. Yes. Oh core there is more to it then height and weight. But as with every position, those things help also. SF has slowly become redefined by taller and stronger players.

[nate33]

my prediction on the 1st 5 picks:

1) New Orleans: Davis
2) Portland: MKG
3) Raptors: Beal
4) Charlotte: Robinson
5) Wiz: "Man of Means" Drummond

This based on a) basic conspiracy theory that the Hornets are league-owned and they are hosting the 2014 All Star game, and b) teams that lose their tiebreakers almost always move up.

There is only a 12% chance that we fall to #5.