HarthorneWingo wrote:robillionaire wrote:I did 20 boredom rolls on tankathon eariler
we got picks 1-4. 8/20 times. That's 40%, pretty close to the actual odds of 37.2%
Out of those 8 times, We took LaMelo 5 times (3 times with the 1st pick, once with the 2nd and once with the 3rd, and 1 each of Wiseman (3rd, LaMelo and Edwards went 1-2), Edwards (2nd, LaMelo went 1st) and Avdija (4th, Lamelo, Edwards, Wiseman went 1-3)
The other 12 times, we got either 7th or 8th. We took Hayes every time. Did not land 6th, 9th, or 10th. The odds of selecting 6th, 9th, or 10th are extremely low.
We will very likely be selecting 7th or 8th. Hayes should be available there and that's who I hope we would draft. However Cole is also going to be there.
LaMelo, Edwards, Wiseman, and Avdija are always in the top 4 and the Knicks would draft them in that order based on who is still available. So the chances of drafting Wiseman or Avdija are also low and would depend on getting 3rd or 4th and LaMelo or Edwards not being on the board. I have seen scenarios where the Knicks take LaMelo 4th because Wiseman Edwards and Avdija go top 3.
What I might expect based on this assuming no trades or anything wonky
Hayes or Cole, 62% based on Knicks preference between these two
LaMelo 27%
Edwards 5%
Wiseman 3%
Avdija 2%
Haliburton 1%
Edit: after rolling the crap out of it enough, I did manage to get 9th (3.7% chance). In that scenario Hayes is gone and they take Haliburton with Cole still on the board. I still think the Knicks would take Cole over Haliburton but I suppose it's not impossible so I accounted for it
I really like Haliburton’s fit with this team based on his skills and BBIQ. I really don’t like Cole and think he’ll be a bust or bench piece at best. He’s too ball dominant, has questionable decision making, and not a great shooter.
Haliburton is my pick too.
