Rui Hachimura 2.0

[payitforward]

Source?

https://www.nba.com/wizards/news/recap-three-key-takeaways-from-wizards-preseason-opener-vs-warriors-in-japan

No prob. It's a nice feel-good story.

[payitforward]

Kuzma and Hachimura are each on expiring contracts. The way I see it, we can afford to keep only one of them going forward. It's show me time for Rui.

(If we had any foresight, we would make the decision on which guy to keep by the Trade Deadline, and then trade the other guy for value rather than let him walk in the offseason. Hopefully, Sheppard has this in the back of his mind.)

If we had any foresight we'd let these two drive the tank to get up the PPG and build trade value heading into the trade deadline

These two are clearly the least effective players in a 10 man rotation. I don't see a rush or priority to keep either. Rui at anything over $6-8 mil is bad idea if he's continual trainwreck on defense. And despite his recent 3pt shooting he's still a drag offensively because the ball sticks, he doesn't see the floor well and he still doesn't know the difference b/w a good & bad shot.

You are correct, of course. But the problem is at least one level deeper. Counting on guys like these is a direct result of never ever being willing to rebuild. At one or another level, depending on the player, you are always over-committing, over-paying, over-estimating -- because these are "your guys."

There is no path from this -- zero, zip, none -- to contending. The rest of this post is off topic for the thread, but the implications have to be noted. I'll put it inside a spoiler for those who aren't interested in reading it.

To be a force in this league, you have to...

Spoiler:

collect excellence in every way you can & always look to trade any player who doesn't reach top level for any chance no matter how slim of getting someone who does. & you have to value draft picks above "solid" veteran players.

Note that "excellence" as I'm using the word doesn't necessarily mean someone who scores a ton of points, i.e. a casual fan's "star." Excellence can mean someone delivering enormous value for where he was picked or what he cost to acquire. In the mid-late 40s or 50s -- Kenyon Martin Jr. comes to mind. So does Anthony Gill -- who might be the single highest-value acquisition the Wizards have made in many years.

In a capped league, every team has pretty much the same ability to acquire excellence. It's on the team if they don't. Period.

The Wizards haven't added a player with top-level potential through the draft since Otto Porter. Drafting Deni might be considered an exception in the sense of at least being believable as an attempt to do that.

Over the last 5 drafts we've had sufficient draft capital & flexibility to have acquired:

2018: Robert Williams & DeAnthony Melton. Instead we took Troy Brown & Issuf Sanon.

2019: Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Daniel Gafford (w/ a pick rather than a trade) & Caleb Martin. Instead we came away w/ Rui Hachimura & Admiral Schofield.

2020: Tyrese Halliburton, Desmond Bane & Tre Jones. Instead we picked Deni Avdija, got Cassius Winston & a late R2 pick in '24, & chose to give Bertans an $80m contract (Boston had offered us the pick that got Bane in return for Bertans).

2021: We could have picked either Isaiah Jackson (if we chose not to trade the #22 pick) or else both Herbert Jones Jr. & Ayo Dosunmu (if we made the trade) in addition to Corey Kispert. Instead we got Isaiah Todd....

2022: Tari Eason, TyTy Washington, Kendall Brown, Trevion Williams & Kenneth Lofton Jr. But, we took Johnny Davis & Yannick Nzosa. The results are not in on this draft, obviously, but -- equally obviously -- the strategy was our usual one.

[gambitx777]

Does nay one else think it be wise to shotgun an extension for Rui before he goes out and kills it this season? Maybe like 4-60 or 4-70?

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[Dat2U]

Does nay one else think it be wise to shotgun an extension for Rui before he goes out and kills it this season? Maybe like 4-60 or 4-70?

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Except he's no where close to being worth that. Its insane to hand $60-70 mil to someone that can't defend or see the floor well.

[Frichuela]

Does nay one else think it be wise to shotgun an extension for Rui before he goes out and kills it this season? Maybe like 4-60 or 4-70?

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Except he's no where close to being worth that. Its insane to hand $60-70 mil to someone that can't defend or see the floor well.

The thing with Rui is that he's got the physical tools but seems to like the desire (and the defensive basketball IQ). We'll see if his 2-game performance in Japan is a mirage but if he sustains it he'll be worth $60mn/4 years. If I was Tommy I'll try hard to extend him at a discount, something like $45-52mn/4-years. There are risks, obviously, but in this inflated market, it could pay off.

[mhd]

We all know Turd values marketing more than anything. I figure we'll extend Rui predominantly because he opens up new markets for Turd.

[nate33]

Does nay one else think it be wise to shotgun an extension for Rui before he goes out and kills it this season? Maybe like 4-60 or 4-70?

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Except he's no where close to being worth that. Its insane to hand $60-70 mil to someone that can't defend or see the floor well.

The thing with Rui is that he's got the physical tools but seems to like the desire (and the defensive basketball IQ). We'll see if his 2-game performance in Japan is a mirage but if he sustains it he'll be worth $60mn/4 years. If I was Tommy I'll try hard to extend him at a discount, something like $45-52mn/4-years. There are risks, obviously, but in this inflated market, it could pay off.

Sure, that's just MLE money. I'd definitely extend him if that's all it took. If nothing else, he'd be a trade asset as just $12M a year.

The problem is, Rui is definitely going to hold out for more than that. I'm sure his agent is assuming he is a sure bet to get at least an MLE deal in the offseason from somebody, so there's no reason to settle for that right now.

My guess is that it will cost something in the range of $16-20M a year to lock him up right now. I wouldn't give him that. He's going to have to prove to me that he is a positive player on the court before I pay him that much.

[gambitx777]

First off I don't get where you call Rui a bad defender. He isn't. He was lack luster on the board but he seems to have fixed that. If his 3 starts to fall that's good. Tyler hero just got 130 and he doesn't play a ton of games nor does he play defence at all.

60 for 4 would be 15 a year. I think that's pretty fair. For both side.if rui takes a dip or has another melt down he's paid and if he takes another step he's a value and is still young enough for a big contract in 4 years.

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[prime1time]

We all know Turd values marketing more than anything. I figure we'll extend Rui predominantly because he opens up new markets for Turd.

You're very naive if you think money shouldn't factor into the conversation. To the degree that having Rui on the teams generates large sums of money, it is possible that it could change the conversation with regards to going into luxury tax.

[nate33]

First off I don't get where you call Rui a bad defender. He isn't. He was lack luster on the board but he seems to have fixed that. If his 3 starts to fall that's good. Tyler hero just got 130 and he doesn't play a ton of games nor does he play defence at all.

60 for 4 would be 15 a year. I think that's pretty fair. For both side.if rui takes a dip or has another melt down he's paid and if he takes another step he's a value and is still young enough for a big contract in 4 years.

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Rui is a pretty solid man-to-man defender in space. But he isn't very good operating defensively within a team concept. He is slow on his weak side rotations; he has poor instincts on when to help and when to stick with his man; and he has been a poor defensive rebounder for most of his career. There's a reason why he has always posted a negative on/off differential.

There is certainly potential to improve. He has all the physical tools to be an exceptional defender. But we just haven't seen it yet; and I wouldn't pay him big money until I see it. For now, he is the very definition of a replaceable player. You can find guys with the MLE who can outproduce Rui. Heck, it's arguable that Anthony Gill is a better player than Rui. I hope that changes this year. We shall see.

[Dat2U]

First off I don't get where you call Rui a bad defender. He isn't. He was lack luster on the board but he seems to have fixed that. If his 3 starts to fall that's good. Tyler hero just got 130 and he doesn't play a ton of games nor does he play defence at all.

60 for 4 would be 15 a year. I think that's pretty fair. For both side.if rui takes a dip or has another melt down he's paid and if he takes another step he's a value and is still young enough for a big contract in 4 years.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

Rui is a pretty solid man-to-man defender in space. But he isn't very good operating defensively within a team concept. He is slow on his weak side rotations; he has poor instincts on when to help and when to stick with his man; and he has been a poor defensive rebounder for most of his career. There's a reason why he has always posted a negative on/off differential.

There is certainly potential to improve. He has all the physical tools to be an exceptional defender. But we just haven't seen it yet; and I wouldn't pay him big money until I see it. For now, he is the very definition of a replaceable player. You can find guys with the MLE who can outproduce Rui. Heck, it's arguable that Anthony Gill is a better player than Rui. I hope that changes this year. We shall see.

Bingo. Anthony Gill is not nearly as talented but he's the more impactful player. I wouldn't pay Rui any amount of $$$ when i can replace his production and upgrade his spot so easily.

I've compared him to Mike Scott from day one and frankly that's what he's slowly becoming. A scoring specialist off the bench who's too weak defensively to get major minutes. I have no interest in paying for that skillset. If another team see's value and would give up a late 1st, I'd jump all over it. If he doesn't have value, he could still be the driver of the tank to help secure a high pick. Either way I don't view him as a core piece.

[gambitx777]

First off I don't get where you call Rui a bad defender. He isn't. He was lack luster on the board but he seems to have fixed that. If his 3 starts to fall that's good. Tyler hero just got 130 and he doesn't play a ton of games nor does he play defence at all.

60 for 4 would be 15 a year. I think that's pretty fair. For both side.if rui takes a dip or has another melt down he's paid and if he takes another step he's a value and is still young enough for a big contract in 4 years.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

Rui is a pretty solid man-to-man defender in space. But he isn't very good operating defensively within a team concept. He is slow on his weak side rotations; he has poor instincts on when to help and when to stick with his man; and he has been a poor defensive rebounder for most of his career. There's a reason why he has always posted a negative on/off differential.

There is certainly potential to improve. He has all the physical tools to be an exceptional defender. But we just haven't seen it yet; and I wouldn't pay him big money until I see it. For now, he is the very definition of a replaceable player. You can find guys with the MLE who can outproduce Rui. Heck, it's arguable that Anthony Gill is a better player than Rui. I hope that changes this year. We shall see.

Bingo. Anthony Gill is not nearly as talented but he's the more impactful player. I wouldn't pay Rui any amount of $$$ when i can replace his production and upgrade his spot so easily.

I've compared him to Mike Scott from day one and frankly that's what he's slowly becoming. A scoring specialist off the bench who's too weak defensively to get major minutes. I have no interest in paying for that skillset. If another team see's value and would give up a late 1st, I'd jump all over it. If he doesn't have value, he could still be the driver of the tank to help secure a high pick. Either way I don't view him as a core piece.

I just don't see him as a bad defender, he's missed a lot of time that would help him on team defence and man defence is important. I also don't see him as a true PF I see him living and breathing as a duo with another pf/sf switchable combo. He can rebound I think he's a decent enough defender to stay on the floor hell out defence is looking really good with Rui right now I'm just saying I don't think locking him in to around 15 now would hurt cuz that doesn't make him a bad contract by any means of hea healthy.

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[payitforward]

Moved here, where it's appropriate to to respond:

And even if he (i.e. Rui) did pan out to be a good instant offense guy for the 2nd unit, that's hardly an accomplishment for the 9th pick in the draft.

& here is my response to the above -- if anyone's really interested:...

Oh... I don't know about that! ...

Spoiler:

Here are the #9 picks in the decade from 2012-2021:

Andre Drummond
Trey Burke
Noah Vonleh
Frank Kaminsky
Jacob Poeltl
Dennis Smith, Jr.
Kevin Knox
Rui
Deni
Davion Mitchell

Drummond & Poeltl have been quite successful NBA players, & Deni looks to be on a good path. The other 7 not so much -- including Davion Mitchell, who had an awful rookie year & is 24.

It's easy to find tons of players taken much later in the same draft who have turned out to be far far better than the guy taken at 9. To take a random example, at least 15 of the 18 players picked from 10-27 in 2013 are much better than the guy who went #9. One of the 10 best players in the league went #27 that year. Oh, & the best player in the league went at 15.

Even the very best #9 picks in that decade -- Drummond, Poeltl & Deni -- aren't anywhere near as good as the 3-4 best guys taken below them in their drafts -- it's not even close: in some years, literally half the players taken from 25-46 are superior to the guy taken #9.

Hell, in 2015, Frank Kaminsky went at #9: but, 15 of the next 23 players have been far better players! H#ll, so have the guys taken #36, 40, 41 & 46.

In short, if Rui becomes a successful NBA player in any role at all, he'll be doing better than most guys picked #9 -- even though it seems quite clear by now that...

...at least 20 of the next 29 guys taken after Rui Hachimura are better than he is.

...which is also how it looked to me at the time....

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Speaking of Davion Mitchell, his Baylor teammate, Jared Butler was released by Utah. After slipping to round two in the draft last season; Jared Butler didn't survive Utah's roster changes and coaching change.

Regardless of how we regard Rui, one thing I'm sure of is that he will get a second NBA contract.

[doclinkin]

Incremental improvement and credit where it is due: Rui did a better job against the Bulls in passing out when doubled or tightly guarded.

[nate33]

Speaking of Davion Mitchell, his Baylor teammate, Jared Butler was released by Utah. After slipping to round two in the draft last season; Jared Butler didn't survive Utah's roster changes and coaching change.

Regardless of how we regard Rui, one thing I'm sure of is that he will get a second NBA contract.

Man, I really liked Jared Butler and am shocked that he was let go. I remember him looking really good in Summer League immediately after being drafted. Did he have injury trouble?

[doclinkin]

His per 36 and per 100 numbers don't look terrible for a rookie. Tough to tell in limited minutes. Looks like he played well in the G-League. Though yeah he isn't showing the 3pt % he had in college. But in college he improved every year. I expect he's the sort who will do so in the pro leagues. Here or in Europe.

Hell, he actually plays defense in the G-League with 21 pts, 5 rb 6ast 2 steals 1 block against 3TO and 2 fouls in 30 minutes a game. If we landed him for the GoGo I'd be happy.

[FAH1223]

Speaking of Davion Mitchell, his Baylor teammate, Jared Butler was released by Utah. After slipping to round two in the draft last season; Jared Butler didn't survive Utah's roster changes and coaching change.

Regardless of how we regard Rui, one thing I'm sure of is that he will get a second NBA contract.

Man, I really liked Jared Butler and am shocked that he was let go. I remember him looking really good in Summer League immediately after being drafted. Did he have injury trouble?

Nope. Jared Butler is healthy. I think the Jazz needed a roster spot but it was very surprising they released him.

[payitforward]

I wonder whether this reflects his heart problem...?

[Dat2U]

I think Jared Butler certainly warrants an extended look on a two way. I'd prefer him to Schakel or Goodwin.