Ghost of Kleine wrote:lilfishi22 wrote:If he wasn't so poor offensively, as in virtually no on-ball skills at all, I'd be way more open to taking a punt on Dunn. I also don't think our team with this many offensive options means you can have a complete zero offensively. One comment I came across a few times from scouting reports is that he wasn't looking to score at all even when the opportunity was there to be aggressive because that just means teams are more than happy to leave him open. Especially if you consider he'll most likely be coming off the bench (assuming it's still the same starting line up as last year) where we don't have the offensive options like we do with the starters to cover for him, being a zero becomes an even bigger weakness to be exploited.
I'd take a punt on him if we had another pick and he was to fall but assuming we just have the one pick in this draft (no trade backs), I just don't feel good at all using that on a guy with this big of a weakness. Like when I look at a guy like Missi for example, they have very similar weaknesses (can't shoot, poor FT shooter, poor passer, can't do much with the ball) and those are weaknesses you generally associate with a lower skilled, ultra-athletic big man. So you have a good sized wing, who can't shoot, can't drive, isn't a playmaker, isn't a good screener but also not the ideal small ball 5 size either. I don't feel like we have the roster to fully maximise his defense and hide him offensively because his offense is just too far behind imo.
Not to discount or ignore yours and BWGOODs' valid and stated concerns around Dunns' shooting struggles, but Dunn isn't an " absolute Zero" on offense. As any of the scouting reports will tell you ( at least the better/ more detailed and prominent ones) Dunn is an above average cutter/ slasher due to his high IQ and spatial awareness. He's also a strong finisher at/ around the rim with a finishing % of 68% and that's even through/ over defenders due to his 6'8 frame, 7'1 wingspan and 38 inch vertical.
Also, some interesting things probably not many people were/ are aware of about his game:
https://www.postingandtoasting.com/2024/6/17/24180478/know-the-prospect-ryan-dunn The good thing for whoever ends up drafting him though, is that there is reason to believe that he can turn into a good, if not serviceable shooter in a few years. In high school, Dunn was known as a very good shooter who showcased a pure stroke and quick release, allowing him to score over defenders and on the move.
https://www.si.com/nba/draft/prospect-profiles/nba-draft-scouting-report-virginias-ryan-dunn While he only shot 31.3% (on 16 attempts) as a freshman, Dunn was a sniper from deep in high school. He has a pure stoke and quick release, with the ability to score on the move and pull-up over defenders.
https://edemirnba.substack.com/p/ryan-dunn-scouting-report He has great mobility, mostly via his fluid hips, and good lateral quickness. Dunn doesn’t have a quick first step when comparing it to other NBA athletes, but his ability to decelerate with a great last step helps him to keep his balance at all times. His footwork is the primary reason why he’s such a reliable on-ball defender.
On the offensive end, his footwork is developing, where he’s mostly being used as a play-finisher on cuts. While his mobility is a clear translatable part of his game, there are areas to clean up regarding Dunn’s usage of his physical tools to be productive.
Offense
As per ShotQuality.com, Virginia ranked outside the top 250 when it came to efficiency on plays via cuts. Dunn was a clear positive for them on that end. Despite the slow-paced offense they ran, Dunn consistently shows his willingness to stay in motion, opening himself up for finishes at the rim.
At 67.9% finishing at the rim, that’s a good number for Dunn to work with. Despite being a right-hand dominant finisher near the basket, Dunn uses motion to leverage his physical tools to keep defenses on their heels. On an NBA floor, teams will ignore him when he’s stationed in the corner during half-court settings. However, teams relying on motion in their offensive schemes will use Dunn’s active cutting to create space for others on the floor.
Well-thought motion is what NBA teams look for, and that’s where Dunn sets himself up to succeed on that end.
Dunn has a good feel for the game as a cutter by selling the idea he’s relocating to the corner.
Dunn is a 75 %-finisher in transition.
Applying ball pressure is one of his primary weapons. Dunn shows good positioning to get himself open for the pass in transition. Or to cash in on backdoor cuts as shown in the fourth play below. His good habits that make him such an effective cutter are what he will rely on as it’s more likely Dunn will run in transition as the off-ball player more often than not.[/color][/i][/b]
Dunn’s biggest value as a connector piece wing is his passing. He has a great passing touch that wasn’t used much at Virginia in the last two seasons. At 0.8 assists per game, the numbers indicate that he has no value as a playmaker. However, an important nuance is that Virginia plays a guard-heavy slow-paced game that leads to a limited amount of field goals per game. Dunn was their finisher on plays and was asked mostly to move the ball, and not make plays for others.
There are important flashes that make it feasible that Dunn will fastly improve as a passer in the NBA. Quickly executing basic reads as these give him a solid base to work within a faster-paced NBA game with more ball movement.
Answering on-ball pressure is the key element for ball handlers in creating advantages, and Dunn is showing flashes he can do it for a team in the long run.
https://www.streakingthelawn.com/2023/1/23/23566113/uva-basketball-virginia-cavaliers-stock-report-reece-beekman-kihei-clark-armaan-franklin-ryan-dunn Ryan Dunn: Stock Up
Probably the biggest riser of the bunch, it was expected by many (including yours truly) that Dunn would redshirt his first season as a Cavalier. Boy should Virginia fans be glad he didn’t. The 6’8” wing has been getting better and better with more opportunities as he’s been fantastic defensively and is starting to show more signs of life offensively.
https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/commitment-breakdown-virginia-lands-ryan-dunn While his 6-foot-6 frame and quickness is what jumps off the page, he used the grassroots circuit to show that he’s more than just length and physical tools. Dunn showed some incredible touch from 3-point range playing for the New York Jayhawks on the adidas 3SSB circuit and proved to be a solid secondary ball handler as well.
COACH’S CORNER
“At 6-foot-7 Ryan is a prototypical big guard. He guards 1 through 3, rebounds above the rim and has high level athleticism. He shoots the ball at a high level and has an underrated passing ability.” -- New York Jayhawks director Jay David, who coaches Dunn on the grassroots circuit.
https://www.streakingthelawn.com/2023/10/18/23919452/virginia-cavaliers-uva-basketball-ryan-dunn-nba-draft-board-virginia-basketball Despite his stellar defense, offensive inconsistencies kept Dunn from seeing 20-plus minutes of playing time per game last season. He displayed moments of brilliance, with a notable two-game stretch to end the regular season in which he scored a combined 19 points on 8/9 from the field. Yet he primarily contributed as a crowd-amplifier, finishing off basket-cuts and fast breaks with rim-rocking dunks.
https://virginia.lockerroomaccess.com/blogs/blog/ryan-dunn-commits-to-virginia What Ryan Dunn Brings to VirginiaHis excellent shooting and defensive versatility provide Dunn with a solid base to grow from. A 40%+ three-point shooter in both high school and AAU competition, that’s his best offensive skill. When you combine that with his physical tools, a well above average athlete with a 7-foot wingspan, the potential upside is very high.
There's many more articles on these unknown/ under the radar attributes. Dunn although not currently a significant offensive weapon still does exhibit the foundational versatility to his overall skillset to impact the game on various levels even aside from shooting.
Although he also has been a really good shooter in the past prior to his insane growth spurt as a 5'11 guard in high school and AAU games. So that underlying ability was already present and is still there once he adjusts ba k to it. Also please read Ersin demirs' full draft report on Dunn that details and even illustrates ( in video clips) Dunns' underutilized passing ability.
Lastly, Dunn as detailed above is a 75% finisher in transition and a high IQ very aware above average cutter/ slasher who utilizes constant motion, spacing, deceleration, anticipation to be impactful on the offensive end. And if he can just adjust back to his stellar 40+% 3 PT shooting in high school, AAU etc, then he'll become one hell of a versatile connective utility wing with 3 & d lockdown defense and playmaking upside too.
I'm not saying he should be our sole pick at 22, but rather that we should absolutely trade down and take him as a 2nd pick top option with great upside potential. And if he's coming off the bench as a possible late first to 2nd round pick, then his concerns will only be further mitigated by the reduced implied risks of that range anyways.
But just as I responded to BWgood above, its really not like we don't/ won't have numerous 3 or floor spacing options that we can add to our bench via the undrafted pool or in free agency if we only choose to do so.
