Building a franchise: Deron Williams or Derrick Rose

[Jvaughn]

I thought this had been beaten to death already, but the whole "Rose is going to keep exponentially increasing because he's already done ___ in his 3rd year" is faulty logic. Yes, Rose is going to improve as a player, but it's not like his prime is going to be on another plane entirely, it doesn't work that way.

LeBron's peak PER is only 3.5 higher than his 3rd year PER. Jordan's peak PER is less than 2 higher than his 3rd year PER. Shaq's peak PER is only 2 higher than his 3rd year PER.

Players don't keep getting better in massive amounts after their third year just because they're young. It's the same trap that Durant backers fell into last summer "Oh man he's gone from 20ppg to 25ppg to now 30ppg! He's going to explode for 33ppg next season!"

I'm not saying Rose won't improve as a player but the whole "HE'S NOT EVEN IN HIS PRIME YET!!!!!" thing is silly.

PER is not the only way to improve. There are lots of places Rose can improve. He can get more consistent with his long range shooting, he can become a better floor general, he can become even more efficient, he can become a lockdown defender. The possibilities are endless. Will he accomplish all of them? Probably not, but to say that he'll only marginally get better because it's his 3rd year is kind of foolish IMO.

[Jvaughn]

So what you're saying is that PER isn't the tell-all stat rerisen implied it was.

It's not a tell all stat, but it is a really good indicator. And the fact that Williams (longer career) has never had a PER as high as Rose who is a 3rd year player, and still not in his prime, is very telling about the trajectory of his career. Also when people say Williams is better than Rose in every stat except volume scoring, it's a good counter argument.

It's only a good indicator if you list Usage % anytime you mention PER. And it isn't a surprise to see both Rose and Westbrook have much higher usage rates than D-Will.

That's what makes Chris paul the best PG... He posts up higher PER then all other PG's yet does it with a much lower usage rate.

So that's the criteria for best PG now? You have to have the highest PER, and edge out the players in your PER range with lower usage? Well as long as we're going to all generally accept that definition of best PG, I'm on board.

[jeff1624]

So what you're saying is that PER isn't the tell-all stat rerisen implied it was.

My post had nothing to do with PER being a 'tell all' stat. The point was that Rose has comparable or better stats to some of the names there were mentioned, which is totally opposite to the Kobe/Jordan comparison that was made.

Fair enough. But it still shouldn't be mentioned to prove who's better. Because if it is Westbrook should be considered the 2nd best PG in the NBA.

[Rapcity_11]

Nah, usage % is useless for PG's, since it doesn't include assists. Like completely useless.

Usage Rate - the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Usage Rate = {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace)

Come again??

You do realize that usage % and usage rate are two different things right?

[jeff1624]

It's not a tell all stat, but it is a really good indicator. And the fact that Williams (longer career) has never had a PER as high as Rose who is a 3rd year player, and still not in his prime, is very telling about the trajectory of his career. Also when people say Williams is better than Rose in every stat except volume scoring, it's a good counter argument.

It's only a good indicator if you list Usage % anytime you mention PER. And it isn't a surprise to see both Rose and Westbrook have much higher usage rates than D-Will.

That's what makes Chris paul the best PG... He posts up higher PER then all other PG's yet does it with a much lower usage rate.

So that's the criteria for best PG now? You have to have the highest PER, and edge out the players in your PER range with lower usage? Well as long as we're going to all generally accept that definition of best PG, I'm on board.

My point was that if you so desperately want to use PER for your convenience (Rose > D-Will yet brook isn't better than Noah despite using the same logic), use it properly.

[jeff1624]

Nah, usage % is useless for PG's, since it doesn't include assists. Like completely useless.

Usage Rate - the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Usage Rate = {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace)

Come again??

You do realize that usage % and usage rate are two different things right?

My mistake then, I obviously meant Usage rate in my earlier post.

[Rerisen]

Fair enough. But it still shouldn't be mentioned to prove who's better.

Ironic, since that is exactly how it was erroneously being used against Rose.

Production should be one of the major things you look at in comparing players, definitely not the only thing. Rating things like leadership, commitment, and other intangibles is very subjective, but team success is somewhere you might find evidence for those things.

[Sinant]

PER is not the only way to improve. There are lots of places Rose can improve. He can get more consistent with his long range shooting, he can become a better floor general, he can become even more efficient, he can become a lockdown defender. The possibilities are endless. Will he accomplish all of them? Probably not, but to say that he'll only marginally get better because it's his 3rd year is kind of foolish IMO.

Right, but all the things you listed would only make him more polished as a player, it's not like his oncourt impact will get a massive jump (like it did from Year 2 to Year 3) because his TS goes from 55 to 58.

I'm not saying he can only improve marginally, just that he's very unlikely to improve exponentially like he has the last few years.

Prime Derrick Rose may very well be a more defensive, more efficient version of current Rose, just like Prime LeBron is a better defender and more efficient scorer than he was in his third year, but that's still polish on the established 3rd year base.

[Rerisen]

The reason I'd build around Rose is because a dominant scoring and closing perimeter guard is a proven method of winning titles in the modern era. Rose isn't up to an MJ/Kobe/Wade level yet, he needs to get more efficient, but he's been doing that each year, and is in reach of getting there.

With Deron, I'd feel you'd still need another offensive superstar on your team beside him. At least a Paul Pierce level player or such that you could go to late in games. Deron hasn't shown me enough in taking over games late or being able to take on a whole defense when everyone knows what is coming and still succeed.

In the NBA and playoffs especially, the league often comes down to one superstar taking a team on his back. Whether that is MJ, Kobe, Wade, Dirk, or a more specialized late scorer like Pierce or Ginobili even. But less frequently do you just see a team run their normal offense for 48 minutes and have it execute as successfully in the last 5 minutes against top competition as the superstar scorer model.

There is a definite bias toward a traditional or so-called 'pure PG' among many fans, but the actual track record of them winning it all is pretty scarce. You have to go back to Magic Johnson to find the last one, and even he may not be such a good example, since his unique size offered him mismatch capabilities both scoring and rebounding as well.

[Jvaughn]

PER is not the only way to improve. There are lots of places Rose can improve. He can get more consistent with his long range shooting, he can become a better floor general, he can become even more efficient, he can become a lockdown defender. The possibilities are endless. Will he accomplish all of them? Probably not, but to say that he'll only marginally get better because it's his 3rd year is kind of foolish IMO.

Right, but all the things you listed would only make him more polished as a player, it's not like his oncourt impact will get a massive jump (like it did from Year 2 to Year 3) because his TS goes from 55 to 58.

I'm not saying he can only improve marginally, just that he's very unlikely to improve exponentially like he has the last few years.

Prime Derrick Rose may very well be a more defensive, more efficient version of current Rose, just like Prime LeBron is a better defender and more efficient scorer than he was in his third year, but that's still polish on the established 3rd year base.

But Rose (an arguable top 7 player) being more polished would make him a significantly better player. He probably wont jump up to best player, but he'd be surefire top 5, and an unstoppable force. Imagine a high efficient, low turnover prone Rose. That's a pretty significant jump.

[Sinant]

But Rose (an arguable top 7 player) being more polished would make him a significantly better player. He probably jump up to best player, but he'd be surefire top 5, and an unstoppable force. Imagine a high efficient, low turnover prone Rose. That's a pretty significant jump.

I guess we just disagree on what Rose's peak impact could be, personally I don't think Rose will ever be the best player in the league, or Top 3 for that matter.

I'd still take Rose in this comparison, but I certainly don't do it expecting him to become the best player in the NBA.

[Rapcity_11]

There is a definite bias toward a traditional or so-called 'pure PG' among many fans, but the actual track record of them winning it all is pretty scarce. You have to go back to Magic Johnson to find the last one, and even he may not be such a good example, since his unique size offered him mismatch capabilities both scoring and rebounding as well.

While true, there is nothing inherent about your claim that makes it a valid point. It's more circumstantial than anything. The reason CP3/D-Will/Nash etc haven't won titles is because they've never played with an elite two-way frontcourt. It has nothing to do with the way they play or the type of offense they run.

I have a 'bias' towards 'pure PGs' because they generally lead better offenses which is the number 1 criteria I'm looking for in a PG. The fact that the circumstances haven't been right recently for them to win a title is irrelevant.

For example sub CP3 for Kobe on the Lakers teams with Shaq, or on the Heat in 06 instead of Wade. Those teams probably still win titles.

[Jvaughn]

But Rose (an arguable top 7 player) being more polished would make him a significantly better player. He probably wont jump up to best player, but he'd be surefire top 5, and an unstoppable force. Imagine a high efficient, low turnover prone Rose. That's a pretty significant jump.

I guess we just disagree on what Rose's peak impact could be, personally I don't think Rose will ever be the best player in the league, or Top 3 for that matter.

I'd still take Rose in this comparison, but I certainly don't do it expecting him to become the best player in the NBA.

Whoops, forgot to put the word won't after "He probably." He'd still have to compete with Durant, LBJ, Dwight down the road. I do think top 3 is attainable.

[grahamslam]

The reason I'd build around Rose is because a dominant scoring and closing perimeter guard is a proven method of winning titles in the modern era. Rose isn't up to an MJ/Kobe/Wade level yet, he needs to get more efficient, but he's been doing that each year, and is in reach of getting there.

With Deron, I'd feel you'd still need another offensive superstar on your team beside him. At least a Paul Pierce level player or such that you could go to late in games. Deron hasn't shown me enough in taking over games late or being able to take on a whole defense when everyone knows what is coming and still succeed.

You must only watch Deron when he plays the Bulls if you haven't seen him close out games. He's been a top notch closer pretty much his entire NBA career...

He's not as a dept at getting to the line as Rose so maybe that's what you're trying to get at but he's won plenty of games by himself in crunch time.

The beauty of his play is that he's not reliant on the whistle to take over.

[Jvaughn]

While true, there is nothing inherent about your claim that makes it a valid point. It's more circumstantial than anything. The reason CP3/D-Will/Nash etc haven't won titles is because they've never played with an elite two-way frontcourt. It has nothing to do with the way they play or the type of offense they run.

I have a 'bias' towards 'pure PGs' because they generally lead better offenses which is the number 1 criteria I'm looking for in a PG. The fact that the circumstances haven't been right recently for them to win a title is irrelevant.

But that isn't the case with CP3 (below average O) and people call him the best floor general out there that leads great offenses.

[Bobbcats]

But that isn't the case with CP3 (below average O) and people call him the best floor general out there that leads great offenses.

Their offense has always been excellent... when he's on the floor.

[Rapcity_11]

While true, there is nothing inherent about your claim that makes it a valid point. It's more circumstantial than anything. The reason CP3/D-Will/Nash etc haven't won titles is because they've never played with an elite two-way frontcourt. It has nothing to do with the way they play or the type of offense they run.

I have a 'bias' towards 'pure PGs' because they generally lead better offenses which is the number 1 criteria I'm looking for in a PG. The fact that the circumstances haven't been right recently for them to win a title is irrelevant.

But that isn't the case with CP3 (below average O) and people call him the best floor general out there that leads great offenses.

That's why I say generally

Anyways, looking at Paul's on/off stats for the past 4 years, he's put on the following net +/- in terms of team Ortg:

07/08 +15.4
08/09 +16.4
09/10 +4.1
10/11 +11.6

So with the exception of a down year in 09/10, the Hornets are doing well offensively with CP3 on the court.