Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[stevemcqueen1]

Amazing that Michigan could win this game with Trey Burke playing like total crap.

Burke is poised and skilled but he's physically limited. MCW bothered him with his size and had absolutely no problems whatsoever staying in front of him. MCW isn't a burner either.

I like watching Burke the CBB player. And I really want to like Burke as an NBA prospect but I'm having trouble getting past the fact he is short and doesn't have a good first step. A star NBA PG needs to be able to attack multiple defenders with his dribble and score against set defenses and punish defenses for pressuring him. I don't think Burke has that ability. He looked pretty dang bad against Syracuse pressure. I think he's going to be a role player in the NBA. Sort of an upper-middle class man's Jameer Nelson.

[nate33]

I agree that he'll be an upper-middle class man's Jameer Nelson. But there's nothing wrong with that. Nelson is a career starter in this league and even sneaked into an All Star Game. If Burke proves to be slightly better than that, that's fine with me if we're picking him in the 7-10 range.

I also disagree with your assessment of his performance. The holes in the 2-3 zone are not at the middle, but from the wings. Burke's job was to move that defense around a bit and then set up holes for his wings to exploit. I thought he did it pretty well, a hell of a lot better than any other team Syracuse faced in the Tournament. My problem wasn't with Burke's floor game. I thought Burke's problem was that he missed shots. His early jumpers were way long, and near the end, his running floaters were a few inches short every time.

It really doesn't matter much. Playing against the Syracuse defense is about as far opposite as you can get from playing an NBA defense. The NBA defense is all about man-to-man, and the primary method of penetrating the defense is to run pick and rolls. Burke does that really well. Burke lacks the explosion to finish at the rim, but if he continues to hone that floater, he'll be fine. The floater coupled with his deep range will be a deadly combination.

Defensively, he'll never be that good but he won't be a horrific liability either. It's not like he's Jimmer Fredette on defense.

[Dat2U]

I live & breath the NBA draft, yet I'll be the first too admit, I really, really do not like this draft. It'a hard for me to figure out who's not going to completely disappoint, so it's probably going to be impossible for Ernie to make the right pick.

I'm all for trading the pick.

Sure, they're might be a young Hedo Turkoglu or Quentin Richardson in the late lottery/mid 1st area... or the next Sam Dalembert available late in the first but even then your not getting a game changer.

[nate33]

I'm all for trading the pick.

It depends what we trade it for. Trading the pick should certainly be an option. I also like the idea of trading down with Utah or Atlanta. I think this draft is full of role players, several of whom are NBA ready. If we can't find a prospect with the upside to be a future starter, let's get two guys who can be solid role players who will cost peanuts for the next 4 years.

[doclinkin]

The best big man prospect in college basketball is Mitch McGary. He is tough as nails, grabs every rebound, has spectacular hands, a great motor, he's athletic and smart. He's everything the Plumlee brothers were supposed to be. His offense isn't refined yet, but he'll get there. The only weakness I see is that he doesn't look particularly long.

Any chance he declares?

I think he'd make a great complement/understudy for Nene. Given the tourney run, and bias for 'great white hope' types, I suspect he'd be gone by 10. But I do like his game and poise.

[Knighthonor]

Anybody up for trading this pick form something first round protected next season.
I fear Wizards may explode during a loaded draft. While having players they will get hurt and can't rely on.is this Wayne Selden guy in next years draft?

[mhd]

The fact that Len is 19 makes him the top big man. He's not over-aged like all the other big man prospects. I didn't realize McGary will be 21 soon. He'll be a good player, but won't be a big time player b/c of his age. Its the Thomas Robinson syndrome.

If Len is gone, and you can't trade, just take Doug McDermott who is NOT overaged (heck, he's ONLY 6 months older than McGary) and be happy with a good role player who is cheap.

[DCZards]

I agree that he'll be an upper-middle class man's Jameer Nelson. But there's nothing wrong with that. Nelson is a career starter in this league and even sneaked into an All Star Game. If Burke proves to be slightly better than that, that's fine with me if we're picking him in the 7-10 range.

Burke's size scares me. In addition, I think it would be a mistake to use a top ten pick to draft a slightly better Jameer Nelson to play backup PG when there is an urgent need for a young big man to be a starter at some point.

[mhd]

Everyone is talking about the need for a good combo guard. You know who is a FA? Mo WIlliams is, and he'd be the perfect fit as a combi guard. I wonder if he'd come cheap?

[stevemcqueen1]

I agree that he'll be an upper-middle class man's Jameer Nelson. But there's nothing wrong with that. Nelson is a career starter in this league and even sneaked into an All Star Game. If Burke proves to be slightly better than that, that's fine with me if we're picking him in the 7-10 range.

I also disagree with your assessment of his performance. The holes in the 2-3 zone are not at the middle, but from the wings. Burke's job was to move that defense around a bit and then set up holes for his wings to exploit. I thought he did it pretty well, a hell of a lot better than any other team Syracuse faced in the Tournament. My problem wasn't with Burke's floor game. I thought Burke's problem was that he missed shots. His early jumpers were way long, and near the end, his running floaters were a few inches short every time.

It really doesn't matter much. Playing against the Syracuse defense is about as far opposite as you can get from playing an NBA defense. The NBA defense is all about man-to-man, and the primary method of penetrating the defense is to run pick and rolls. Burke does that really well. Burke lacks the explosion to finish at the rim, but if he continues to hone that floater, he'll be fine. The floater coupled with his deep range will be a deadly combination.

Defensively, he'll never be that good but he won't be a horrific liability either. It's not like he's Jimmer Fredette on defense.

It wasn't just finding shots for himself against the zone. It was mainly the poor decision making that came as a result of pressure and the struggle bringing the ball up court. Burke is a good ball handler and he had a devil of a time trying to get around Syracuse to bring the ball up the floor. It really showcased the weaknesses in his skill set. He's not fast, he's not strong, and he's not big. He's got a marginal body for the NBA and average athleticism at best. I didn't like seeing how much trouble he had trying to get by MCW when he wasn't being doubled. I didn't like seeing him whip around panic passes when the trap came, particularly the one that Robinson saved by the skin of his teeth at the end of the game that could have caused them to lose if it had gone out.

I think he's going to have trouble scoring in the NBA. Short, smart, skilled below the rim PGs have always had a place in the NBA but their value is becoming lesser. He's a jump shooter that can be pretty streaky and he can't get to the rim and the FT line when his shot isn't falling, leading to some ugly games like 1/8 for 7 points.

I think Burke will be a role player and a middle of the road starting PG. I don't think he'll be better than any of these PGs,

- Rose
- Paul
- Wall
- Westbrook
- Parker
- Irving
- Rondo
- Williams
- Bledsoe
- Holiday
- Lillard
- Walker
- Lawson
- Jennings
- Curry
- Rubio

Is he better than Mike Conley? I don't know. I think he'll have to get into a good situation to end up being better than him. Same for Jeff Teague, Kyle Lowry, Jose Calderon, and Goran Dragic. Jeremy Lin and Isaiah Thomas?

There are a lot of serviceable starting PGs in the NBA right now. I don't think Burke has the physical tools to stand out from the pack.

I think he's only in top ten consideration because the class is so weak. C and SG are the only positions that are solid, and most of the Cs are old prospects--probably only two or three in the class will end up as long term starters. The forward crop is horrible, Bennett and Porter are the only two good ones that look like future starters and they are flawed. Marcus Smart isn't really a pure PG and MCW can't score.

I also don't like Burke as a draft pick for us. I want John handling the ball for 36 minutes a game, and I think the third guard is probably the easiest position of all to fill in FA. His positional value would be negligible compared to the other positions. And ideally, we'd find a well seasoned vet to be the backup PG anyway. IMO he's only really useful to us as a lotto pick if he's a trade asset.

[Ruzious]

Everyone is talking about the need for a good combo guard. You know who is a FA? Mo WIlliams is, and he'd be the perfect fit as a combi guard. I wonder if he'd come cheap?

Forget free agency. The Wiz have no cap room, and they're likely going to use the entire MLE on Webster. All they'll have room for is minimum salary players.

Rule on NCAA - never go nuts over 1 game. Burke's poor shooting game in a win - and a game where the opposing PG - MCW, who most have as a lotto pick in this draft - played much WORSE - shouldn't have much affect on how you grade him. If he's there, I take him - and there's no doubt in my mind he can play WITH Wall and wouldn't be limited to being strictly a backup PG.

McGary's stats during the post-season are so much better than the regular season, it's startling. And part of that is that he had a PG help him develop and find his game. And his development is for real, imo. My gut feeling is he's going to enter the draft. But even though he's a frosh, he's a year older than Len.

[closg00]

Is there an overlooked/dismissed player in this draft like Drummund was last-year?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/ne ... t=uk_wr_a1

[Dark Faze]

Dude, Burke has been terrible the entire tournament. I think he's good but it's not just a 1 game thing. My main concern with Burke is dribble penetration. He doesn't seem to have it. He's reminding me more and more of Jameer.

And we're not trading the pick. In a draft like this you'll get squat for it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The fact that Len is 19 makes him the top big man. He's not over-aged like all the other big man prospects. I didn't realize McGary will be 21 soon. He'll be a good player, but won't be a big time player b/c of his age. Its the Thomas Robinson syndrome.

If Len is gone, and you can't trade, just take Doug McDermott who is NOT overaged (heck, he's ONLY 6 months older than McGary) and be happy with a good role player who is cheap.

This draft the Wizards should get Doug McDermott. He's a great basketball player who has a lot of Larry Bird's qualities. If they get McDermott and Nate Wolters that might be their greatest draft in 30 years, because those players will give them championship-quality depth.

[nate33]

I think Burke will be a role player and a middle of the road starting PG. I don't think he'll be better than any of these PGs,

- Rose
- Paul
- Wall
- Westbrook
- Parker
- Irving
- Rondo
- Williams
- Bledsoe
- Holiday
- Lillard
- Walker
- Lawson
- Jennings
- Curry
- Rubio

Is he better than Mike Conley? I don't know. I think he'll have to get into a good situation to end up being better than him. Same for Jeff Teague, Kyle Lowry, Jose Calderon, and Goran Dragic. Jeremy Lin and Isaiah Thomas?

Again, if that's all he can be, that's still a pretty good deal if he is available at #10. We'd be grabbing a guy who could be a serviceable starter or a great backup, paying him $1.5M a year, and he'll be NBA ready on Day 1. It addresses the biggest immediate hole on the roster and keeps up from being dependent on John Wall playing 40 minutes a game for 82 games.

I just don't like the upside on most of the big men in the draft. A couple are NBA ready right now (Dieng, Withey, maybe Zeller) but don't project to be much more than backups. The other bigs (Gobert, Austin, Adams) are long term projects with a payoff that still might not be very impressive. I'm not interested in developing a guy for four years and have him pan out to be not much better than Seraphin. The only guys in this draft worth taking the time to develop is Noel, Bennett and possibly Len (not sure about him).

I've had enough of projects like McGee, Seraphin, Vesely, Pecherov, Blatche, etc. You spend 4 years on these guys and then when their rookie deal is up they either suck or they depart via free agency because some fool team is willing to overpay them. If the project player doesn't have big time upside to be a star, then let them develop on someone else's dime. Give me the nba-ready guy who will actually be a productive player throughout the duration of his rookie contract. You get 4 years of cheap, starting-caliber play, and then you trade him for an asset.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Is there an overlooked/dismissed player in this draft like Drummund was last-year?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/ne ... t=uk_wr_a1

I don't think this draft will see any powerful bigs go too low. Mitch McGary, Steven Adams, and Gorgui Dieng will all go first round. Olynyk and Len will definitely go lottery. Project tall guys will also be drafted, likely in round one and that would include Rudy Gobert and Isaiah Austin. I doubt Austin slips into round two, as nbadraftnet projects.

As for underrated:

1. I think Cody Zeller might slip a few places too low because of his poor post season.

2. Mike Muscala fits the same profile as Nick Fazekas, but he's a better rebounder than Fazekas. Muscala put up very good NCAA stats. Vucevic went to low. If Muscala can adjust to the physicality of the NBA game he will be a steal in round two.

3. I AM ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED the scouts are wrong about Doug McDermott. Otto Porter has a very bright future but Doug McDermott is the better player. (Porter has more upside but McDermott is energetic and a volume scorer). Chris Mullin and Steve Nash did not out jump, out run, or overpower on the court. Yet, there were/are great basketball players. Likewise, McDermott shoots like they did/do and rebounds very well. He will find a way to play PF or SF.

4. D.J. Stephens is a superior basketball athlete and better IMO than players like Harrison Barnes.

5. Zeke Marshall is perhaps just as good as Jeff Withey,

6. Allen Crabbe is going to be a lights out scorer at the next level.

7. Pierre Jackson could be every bit as good as Trey Burke, but he is a couple years older and a couple inches shorter.

8. Isaiah Canaan reminds me of Andrew Goudelock. He's a great shooter in the mold of a Derrick Fisher. Depending on which team gets him, he could be a great scorer off the bench. Or, he could languish on the bench.

9. The most underrated PG is probably Ray McCallum.

10. I won't be surprised of Colton Iverson players at least a couple seasons in the NBA.

11. Cory Jefferson is very underrated.

12. Carrick Felix is NBA-ready and a great value pick in round two. His teammate Jahii Carson is a tremendous player, too.

[nate33]

The fact that Len is 19 makes him the top big man. He's not over-aged like all the other big man prospects. I didn't realize McGary will be 21 soon. He'll be a good player, but won't be a big time player b/c of his age. Its the Thomas Robinson syndrome.

If Len is gone, and you can't trade, just take Doug McDermott who is NOT overaged (heck, he's ONLY 6 months older than McGary) and be happy with a good role player who is cheap.

This draft the Wizards should get Doug McDermott. He's a great basketball player who has a lot of Larry Bird's qualities. If they get McDermott and Nate Wolters that might be their greatest draft in 30 years, because those players will give them championship-quality depth.

I'm with you on McDermott, but I'm just not feeling Nate Wolters. If Wolters does pan out in this league, it'll be as an poor man's Andre Miller/Kirk Hinrich type of game manager PG, not a dynamic, penetrate and dish PG. A game manager PG works on a team with shot creators at other positions. It won't work on our team. We need our PG to draw the focus of the defensive attention to free up shots for our catch-and-shoot players.

Again, I'm not saying Wolters won't suprise to the upside. I just don't see how it would happen on our team.

I've got a few questions about McDermott for anybody who has seen him play extensively. I've seen him play a few times and he tends to get his shots by moving without the ball well and by utilizing his pretty impressive post-up/slash game - almost like Carmelo Anthony or Thaddeus Young. Unfortunately, I don't see that working against the size and length of the NBA. The NBA is going to take away much of his offensive repertoire and force him to be more of a complementary player. My question is, how good is he on the catch-and-shoot? How quick is his release? The stats say he's a great 3-point shooter, but that's not enough in the NBA. You need to be a great shooter with a quick, high release.

[Ruzious]

Dude, Burke has been terrible the entire tournament. I think he's good but it's not just a 1 game thing. My main concern with Burke is dribble penetration. He doesn't seem to have it. He's reminding me more and more of Jameer.

And we're not trading the pick. In a draft like this you'll get squat for it.

His shooting's been off, but he's played well otherwise - and is averaging 14 points, 7 assists, 3 to's, and 2 steals a game. He won the game against #1 Michigan just 2 games before with brilliant play. If you actually watch the games, you've seen he's the clear on-court leader on a team that's in position to win the national championship. Their opponents throughout the tournament have focused on trying to make things hard on him. Louisville will be a great test, because Smith and Siva are the best at wearing out opposing guards with their relentless pressure. It'll also be a great test for McGary against Djeng.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

nate, I see McDermott being a great complementary player to stars Wall and Beal. Seraphin inside and Booker do the things McDermott can't do. All Doug McDermott needs to do is what he's already great at, move to get open and score. What's going to surprise most NBA scouts is how well McDermott rebounds and how many garbage baskets McDermott gets. He's also got NBA three point range. His three point shot is INCREDIBLE in the NCAAs and won't be shut down in the NBA.

I don't see any reason NOT to draft McDermott, even with the #9 or 10 pick. I understand Porter, Len, and Olynyk will be higher on their list and each player has his merits, but the things I use to predict say McDermott can be the best player out of even them.

[Ruzious]

Is there an overlooked/dismissed player in this draft like Drummund was last-year?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/ne ... t=uk_wr_a1

Btw, am I the only one who thinks people have gotten ahead of themselves on Drummond. I spent a lot of posts defending Drummond last year, but now people are ready to call him a superstar in the making. He's still a very limited offensive player who may never be more than version 2 of DeAndre Jordan. Meanwhile, Monroe's play has declined with Drummond's presence. Let's see what happens when Drummond plays 30 plus minutes a game rather than 18.