Bradley Beal - Part III

[AFM]

"one of the best pure shooter in the league"

How do these idiots get GM jobs? Beal can't even shoot over 80% from the foul line.

It really does amaze me how the perception of Beal is so much better than the reality of Beal. How long does it take for the glow of "number 3 draft pick" to fade?

I remember Kevin posting years ago about how lottery picks, even busts, on average were paid more than their worth/players of similar production. So apparently never.
I think last night showed why Will Barton >> Beal. Dude can shoot and take it to the basket. Beal can't dribble for shiet and I don't think he ever will be able to. I can think of players adding a 3 pt shot or increasing their FT% but I can't for the life of me remember a player entering the league as a catch and shoot player and adding a sick handle.

[Kanyewest]

"one of the best pure shooter in the league"

How do these idiots get GM jobs? Beal can't even shoot over 80% from the foul line.

It really does amaze me how the perception of Beal is so much better than the reality of Beal. How long does it take for the glow of "number 3 draft pick" to fade?

I remember Kevin posting years ago about how lottery picks, even busts, on average were paid more than their worth/players of similar production. So apparently never.
I think last night showed why Will Barton >> Beal. Dude can shoot and take it to the basket. Beal can't dribble for shiet and I don't think he ever will be able to. I can think of players adding a 3 pt shot or increasing their FT% but I can't for the life of me remember a player entering the league as a catch and shoot player and adding a sick handle.

Beal still has the age argument going for him, ie Beal is only 21 while Barton is 25. One guy that comes to mind that has improved his ball handling since he's entered the league is Klay Thompson.

Beal still has a long way to go, but at least right now he's knocking down a large percentage of his shots. Now he needs to rebound better, get to the line, and play better defense but I am a bit surprised he's playing as well as he is coming off all these injuries.

[AFM]

It really does amaze me how the perception of Beal is so much better than the reality of Beal. How long does it take for the glow of "number 3 draft pick" to fade?

I remember Kevin posting years ago about how lottery picks, even busts, on average were paid more than their worth/players of similar production. So apparently never.
I think last night showed why Will Barton >> Beal. Dude can shoot and take it to the basket. Beal can't dribble for shiet and I don't think he ever will be able to. I can think of players adding a 3 pt shot or increasing their FT% but I can't for the life of me remember a player entering the league as a catch and shoot player and adding a sick handle.

Beal still has the age argument going for him, ie Beal is only 21 while Barton is 25. One guy that comes to mind that has improved his ball handling since he's entered the league is Klay Thompson.

Beal still has a long way to go, but at least right now he's knocking down a large percentage of his shots. Now he needs to rebound better, get to the line, and play better defense but I am a bit surprised he's playing as well as he is coming off all these injuries.

Beal has the age thing going for him, but this is his 4th season, and there hasn't been a significant improvement in his game. Thats a major red flag honestly. Wall was able to improve his FT shooting year upon year. What's Beal's excuse?

[Kanyewest]

I remember Kevin posting years ago about how lottery picks, even busts, on average were paid more than their worth/players of similar production. So apparently never.
I think last night showed why Will Barton >> Beal. Dude can shoot and take it to the basket. Beal can't dribble for shiet and I don't think he ever will be able to. I can think of players adding a 3 pt shot or increasing their FT% but I can't for the life of me remember a player entering the league as a catch and shoot player and adding a sick handle.

Beal still has the age argument going for him, ie Beal is only 21 while Barton is 25. One guy that comes to mind that has improved his ball handling since he's entered the league is Klay Thompson.

Beal still has a long way to go, but at least right now he's knocking down a large percentage of his shots. Now he needs to rebound better, get to the line, and play better defense but I am a bit surprised he's playing as well as he is coming off all these injuries.

Beal has the age thing going for him, but this is his 4th season, and there hasn't been a significant improvement in his game. Thats a major red flag honestly. Wall was able to improve his FT shooting year upon year. What's Beal's excuse?

Beal is still trying to grow his game into creating off the dribble. The good right now is that he is shooting a career best 54.8 TS%. The bad of course is that he is averaging a career high in turnovers.

I would also say that Beal has improved his game since he's been a rookie although the stats do not bear it out. His efficiency would be higher if he had better teammates like he did in the past few seasons. Otto Porter is a promising player but right now he is not as good as guys like 2014-15 Pierce, 2013-14 Ariza, and 2012-13 Webster. A guy like Ariza certainly saved Beal energy on the defensive end; Porter does not usually take on the team's best offensive player.

And injuries have derailed his progress a bit.

Will Beal figure it out? While I still think he can improve I would certainly be skeptical of giving him a max offer, here's hoping he figures it out and eventually proves to be a good starting shooting guard as he matures.

[deneem4]

Beal is still trying to grow his game into creating off the dribble. The good right now is that he is shooting a career best 54.8 TS%. The bad of course is that he is averaging a career high in turnovers.

I would also say that Beal has improved his game since he's been a rookie although the stats do not bear it out. His efficiency would be higher if he had better teammates like he did in the past few seasons. Otto Porter is a promising player but right now he is not as good as guys like 2014-15 Pierce, 2013-14 Ariza, and 2012-13 Webster. A guy like Ariza certainly saved Beal energy on the defensive end; Porter does not usually take on the team's best offensive player.

And injuries have derailed his progress a bit.

Will Beal figure it out? While I still think he can improve I would certainly be skeptical of giving him a max offer, here's hoping he figures it out and eventually proves to be a good starting shooting guard as he matures.

This makes me wonder about some of our other former draft picks...was they given a fair chance to grow....they most showed a good flash in 1 particular skill...while not looking not so good in others like beal...

[nate33]

Beal is still trying to grow his game into creating off the dribble. The good right now is that he is shooting a career best 54.8 TS%. The bad of course is that he is averaging a career high in turnovers.

I would also say that Beal has improved his game since he's been a rookie although the stats do not bear it out. His efficiency would be higher if he had better teammates like he did in the past few seasons. Otto Porter is a promising player but right now he is not as good as guys like 2014-15 Pierce, 2013-14 Ariza, and 2012-13 Webster. A guy like Ariza certainly saved Beal energy on the defensive end; Porter does not usually take on the team's best offensive player.

And injuries have derailed his progress a bit.

Will Beal figure it out? While I still think he can improve I would certainly be skeptical of giving him a max offer, here's hoping he figures it out and eventually proves to be a good starting shooting guard as he matures.

This makes me wonder about some of our other former draft picks...was they given a fair chance to grow....they most showed a good flash in 1 particular skill...while not looking not so good in others like beal...

None of our former picks went on to do much with other teams either. McGee, Seraphin, Blatche, Booker, Mack, McGuire, Vesely... all are either journeymen or out of the league.

The ineptitude of Grunfeld is really staggering. How can you blow every single non-top 3 pick in the past decade? And even the top 3 picks are underwhelming, except Wall.

[nate33]

Beal still has the age argument going for him, ie Beal is only 21 while Barton is 25.

Beal is 22 and turns 23 this June.

[payitforward]

Beal's 2 1/2 years younger than Barton, but I don't know why this is worth going into. They're not similar players, and however old Barton is Beal is still young and can improve. That's not to make any prediction, but I don't see why to compare them.

What's significant about Barton in re: the Washington Wizards and this Board is that he was there for the taking in 2012, and that many of us (esp. CCJ and me) had him, along with Jae Crowder and Draymond Green, on our short list to take at #32.

Edit: "esp. CCJ and me" ?? -- I should add Kevin and at least 4-5 other posters.

[Dark Faze]

the sato pick I feel like was a pick made to make ves more comfortable

just dumb

[Kanyewest]

Beal still has the age argument going for him, ie Beal is only 21 while Barton is 25.

Beal is 22 and turns 23 this June.

True; an error on my part. 2 1/2 years is still a significant age difference but not as big as 3 1/2 years.

[nuposse04]

Small sample size, but the 11 games since Beal has been back his per 36 numbers are:

24-4-4-1 with 2 TO. The rebounds and assists are rounded up from 3.5 a piece (truthfully I'd like to see him getting in their more for rebounds, kill the notion of running every damn time. He is actually shooting 82% from the FT line which borderline shocking and his TS is north of 60%. 38% 3 pt shooting on about 6 attempts a game, hopefully both those numbers come up... Still only attempting 4 ft per 36 in this run... but I guess we'll take it for now. His +/- is on the positive side and so is his Ortg/drtg

this all according to NBA.com btw.

According to their player tracking his defense isn't horrible either, keeping whoever he is guarding 2.6% below their season average shooting. He's really running guys off the 3 pt line well but struggling when guys get inside 10 feet on him. He might need to fix his close out angles in order to give him a chance to recover. That or he just isnt physically able to contend whoever he is guarding (which might make sense we play him at the 3 it seems sometimes, hell he was 4 the against GSW on a couple plays )

Either way, happy to see him play better. Question is if he can reasonably play 32-33 minutes a game for 90% of an NBA season. >.>

[nate33]

Small sample size, but the 11 games since Beal has been back his per 36 numbers are:

24-4-4-1 with 2 TO. The rebounds and assists are rounded up from 3.5 a piece (truthfully I'd like to see him getting in their more for rebounds, kill the notion of running every damn time. He is actually shooting 82% from the FT line which borderline shocking and his TS is north of 60%. 38% 3 pt shooting on about 6 attempts a game, hopefully both those numbers come up... Still only attempting 4 ft per 36 in this run... but I guess we'll take it for now. His +/- is on the positive side and so is his Ortg/drtg

this all according to NBA.com btw.

According to their player tracking his defense isn't horrible either, keeping whoever he is guarding 2.6% below their season average shooting. He's really running guys off the 3 pt line well but struggling when guys get inside 10 feet on him. He might need to fix his close out angles in order to give him a chance to recover. That or he just isnt physically able to contend whoever he is guarding (which might make sense we play him at the 3 it seems sometimes, hell he was 4 the against GSW on a couple plays )

Either way, happy to see him play better. Question is if he can reasonably play 32-33 minutes a game for 90% of an NBA season. >.>

Good stuff. I'll note that he has played 265 minutes, or equivalent to about 8 games at normal minute loads. He's also been playing against backups, however much difference that makes.

I'm very leery of his low FTA's, though the uptick in 3PA's/min is encouraging. He is shooting 60% from 2-point range, which is about 17% higher than his career norms. I have trouble believing that will last.

[DCZards]

Small sample size, but the 11 games since Beal has been back his per 36 numbers are:

24-4-4-1 with 2 TO. The rebounds and assists are rounded up from 3.5 a piece (truthfully I'd like to see him getting in their more for rebounds, kill the notion of running every damn time. He is actually shooting 82% from the FT line which borderline shocking and his TS is north of 60%. 38% 3 pt shooting on about 6 attempts a game, hopefully both those numbers come up... Still only attempting 4 ft per 36 in this run... but I guess we'll take it for now. His +/- is on the positive side and so is his Ortg/drtg

this all according to NBA.com btw.

According to their player tracking his defense isn't horrible either, keeping whoever he is guarding 2.6% below their season average shooting. He's really running guys off the 3 pt line well but struggling when guys get inside 10 feet on him. He might need to fix his close out angles in order to give him a chance to recover. That or he just isnt physically able to contend whoever he is guarding (which might make sense we play him at the 3 it seems sometimes, hell he was 4 the against GSW on a couple plays )

Either way, happy to see him play better. Question is if he can reasonably play 32-33 minutes a game for 90% of an NBA season. >.>

He's also clearly making more of an effort to attack the basket. No, Beal is not a MAX salary player but, if he can stay healthy and play the minutes/games you suggest, he's a keeper. Kid still has a ton of upside. Whether he's shooting well or not, the Zards are a much better offensive team when Beal is on the court because opponents recognize that he's capable of scoring in bunches.

[nuposse04]

Good stuff. I'll note that he has played 265 minutes, or equivalent to about 8 games at normal minute loads. He's also been playing against backups, however much difference that makes.

I'm very leery of his low FTA's, though the uptick in 3PA's/min is encouraging. He is shooting 60% from 2-point range, which is about 17% higher than his career norms. I have trouble believing that will last.

Yah, it isn't much but i'll take positive stuff where I can find it at this point lol. I thin he'll eventually start knocking down more threes but he hasn't yet... luckily it has coincide with a hot streak from mid range as you say... which should fall eventually. Hopefully whenever his 3ball comes back, he takes a sufficient amount more to maintain a decent TS... I think his season TS is at 56% which is pretty good. As DCZards noted, it does seem he is attacking more then usual. Now he needs to figure out how to get more contact.

A lot of his hard drives to the rim are challenged so I'd like to see him utilize pump fakes more when he gets there and get defenders in the air. He doesn't need to be a bobble head like Harden but he can help himself by doing some seemingly basic things.

One thing I don't want to see, is the damn 3 guard lineup. So sick and tired of asking guys to play against physical mismatches. It doesn't ever seem to work well for us, so hopefully Randy will abandon that and Beal/Neal/Wall/Temple won't have to take on larger players.

[Ruzious]

Small sample size, but the 11 games since Beal has been back his per 36 numbers are:

24-4-4-1 with 2 TO. The rebounds and assists are rounded up from 3.5 a piece (truthfully I'd like to see him getting in their more for rebounds, kill the notion of running every damn time. He is actually shooting 82% from the FT line which borderline shocking and his TS is north of 60%. 38% 3 pt shooting on about 6 attempts a game, hopefully both those numbers come up... Still only attempting 4 ft per 36 in this run... but I guess we'll take it for now. His +/- is on the positive side and so is his Ortg/drtg

this all according to NBA.com btw.

According to their player tracking his defense isn't horrible either, keeping whoever he is guarding 2.6% below their season average shooting. He's really running guys off the 3 pt line well but struggling when guys get inside 10 feet on him. He might need to fix his close out angles in order to give him a chance to recover. That or he just isnt physically able to contend whoever he is guarding (which might make sense we play him at the 3 it seems sometimes, hell he was 4 the against GSW on a couple plays )

Either way, happy to see him play better. Question is if he can reasonably play 32-33 minutes a game for 90% of an NBA season. >.>

Check out Manu Ginobili's average minutes per game. The most he's ever averaged in the NBA is a hair over 31 minutes a game, and he had just 1 other season with 30 minutes a game. That's how SA has kept him as one of the most productive per 40 minutes 2's in the game. It probably makes sense to limit Beal to those types of minutes - and he can be more valuable used that way - especially if he's fresh down the stretch of close games. And when you think about it, playing Beal 30 minutes a game is just a few minutes less than what they'd normally play him. If that makes him more efficient and productive, go with it. We'll win more.

[Dark Faze]

Beals PER was 16.45 yesterday I think--and not to long before that it was in the high 15's. It's 17 now.

IF he keeps this up he'll finish the season around 20 PER on 46/40 shooting percentages and a career high ORTG

[payitforward]

...and he had a great game last night. Kid's playing great since his return.

[dckingsfan]

Looks pretty similar year over year for Bradley (kick the football Charlie Brown) Beal.

Code: Select all

Season   Age   TS%    TRB%   AST%   STL%   TOV%   WS/48   VORP   PER
2012-13   19   0.515   6.7   13.7   1.5   10.6    0.082   0.9    13.6
2013-14   20   0.507   6.3   16.0   1.4    9.4    0.076   0.5    14.3
2014-15   21   0.521   6.4   15.0   1.8   11.7    0.085   1.3    14.0
2015-16   22   0.564   6.8   15.5   1.7   12.3    0.074   0.4    16.9


[Dark Faze]

those advanced stats are rising, and the most important STAT there is TS, which is a huge leap from previous year numbers

you really can't trade Brad until he proves this current string is a fluke--because he's a very good player right now

[dckingsfan]

those advanced stats are rising, and the most important STAT there is TS, which is a huge leap from previous year numbers

you really can't trade Brad until he proves this current string is a fluke--because he's a very good player right now

But are those numbers to which you allocate a max contract? Even how he is playing the last few weeks? I think we sell now - this season is toast.