dhsilv2 wrote:I have Kobe in the 12-15 range.
But ok...let me see here. Winning matters but only in the right context (we'll get there). Peak over all else. And I'm going to skew towards using stats based on the regular season. I'll bias the stat analysis in a couple of key ways. Passing is more scalable than scoring. Defense is missed in stats when the player is a rim protector and/or elite off ball and all else equal defense trumps scoring.
Base line - Kobe's peak WS and VORP. 15.3 (.224) 8.0 (7.6)
Guys i'm just saying peaked higher and not going to dig into.
MJ, Lebron, CP3, Dirk, Hakeem, Bird, Magic, KG, Duncan, O'neal, Curry, Giannis, KD, Harden (I don't like myself), Robinson, Wilt, Russell, West, Oscar.
OK we have 19 guys who I can make pretty easy stats cases on just better peak box metrics.
So can I use my bias methods or maybe look at some short careers?
Walton? - Peak BPM tops Kobe's. Elite passing big man and considered by some at his peak to be in the discussion as a top 5 all time defender. I think he passes the smell test here.
Jokic? - Sure stats are better. Kinda like Harden above, I don't feel right doing it yet, but to be consistent he has to move up.
Mikan? - not sure how to even use era stats with him, but lets just assume he passes this test
Karl? - Really great passing big man and likely would have had better stats if stockton wasn't running that show. Peak VORP and BPM and WS all work here. OK
Walt Frazier - we don't get VORP stats for his best years but he does peak higher in WS and WS/48. He was an elite defender at the guard and passer. I'd never rank him this high but ok.
Pettit - doesn't pass on peak WS but has 2 near equal years with a higher WS/48. lets throw him in.
Stockton - actually fits the entire criteria which is weird and not expected
Moses? - higher peak in WS and he has a nice peak WS/48 at .248. BPM and VORP don't do it. He doesn't fit any of my bias criteria. Sorry Moses.
Rose? - nope
Hondo? - here again the stats won't support it but MVP + he fits the bias criteria. Still passing
Brand - this is one many would be shocked to even realize but his 06 season was THAT good, we can consider him. But passing
Westbrook - i just refuse lol
Anyway this gets us to 26th as I can't waste more time looking for any outlier seasons. But this at least gives a consistent method that could move Kobe near the 30 spot.
edit - forgot Wade
This is a good post and similar to how I thought about it (down to initially forgetting Wade and having to edit). You laid out a reasonable criteria for ranking players and with it you can see that Kobe might fall to the mid-20s. Now, we can say it isn't the BEST criteria (as you do when you put him 12-15th, which is probably where I would as well), but you could easily craft an argument for it that a person would have to credit as "reasonable" even if they then presented a different argument.
So that fits the definition of the thread to me. This isn't the best range to put Kobe, but it's the lowest that he could be reasonably placed.