Post#67 » by Chanel Bomber » Tue Dec 3, 2024 4:28 pm
Another element to support the pertinence of advanced impact metrics.
The Magic are rolling without their "star" player Paolo Banchero. How could that happen if Banchero's their best player, which is the conventional wisdom? You would expect them to take a step back without him, right?
Well, EPM suggests that Banchero only had a moderate impact on winning last year (+0.2 EPM), while Franz Wagner was by far their most impactful player (+3.2 EPM).
Banchero made the All-Star team based on his big numbers, but those numbers resulted from a high usage more than anything else. In reality, Paolo didn't have much of an impact on their run to the playoffs. Which makes sense if you think about it - he's a talented but fairly inefficient volume scorer and an average defender.
Orlando's run to the playoffs last year was predominantly driven by their defense and - if any single individual player deserves to be mentioned - by Franz's all-around play. Which explains why they are being successful this season without Banchero. He's a big talent who raises their ceiling, but he's not the driving force behind their success. Meanwhile, Wagner's EPM has risen to +5.5 this season.
I think those metrics are interesting because they allow you to see trends emerge before they become common knowledge and to challenge preconceptions built on expectations and subjective eye test. When the collective assumption was that the Nuggets could never win a championship with Jokic because he was a "bad defender", the same metric(s) suggested that Jokic actually had a positive impact on defense, despite not being a rim protector. A few months later, the Nuggets won the championship, with their defense holding up against the likes of KD, LeBron, AD and Jimmy.