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Washington Wizards Salary Cap

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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#61 » by LyricalRico » Sun Jul 5, 2009 10:59 pm

1977Odualum wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:^ Which is why I think they're going to use Nick Young to unload DeBrick's contract, which I'm totally in favor of.





Hmmmmm.....every publication/rumor site that I have read has Nick Young gone. Looks like your totally in favor a a situatation that most likely will never exist.


Okay...let's see if I can follow this:

1. According to you, I am an idiot
2. "every publication/rumor site" has Nick Young "gone" (meaning not on the team)
3. I am in favor of trading him along with Stevenson (meaning he won't be on the team)
4. According to you, I am in favor of a situation that "most likely will never exist"

So, would that not also mean that "every publication/rumor site" is also in favor of a situation that "most likely will never exist", also making them idiots?

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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#62 » by doclinkin » Mon Jul 6, 2009 12:16 am

Severn Hoos wrote:Good breakdown, nate - and it does make me worried that we'll be looking at a $10M/year contract for Haywood, which would significantly reduce our flexibility with other players. And don't get me wrong - I believe he is far more valuable than those 3 guys, and more valuable than all but about 5 or 6 Centers in the NBA. But I doubt (naively optimistic?) that he'll get an offer like those guys, for the following reasons:

* Age
* Economy
* Precedent
* Control
* Star Power


On the counterpoint you're missing one aspect that should affect his contract:

*Arms race.

Every now and again there is a player who comes along that tilts the balance one way or the other. Teams have to account for that player in order to consider advancing in the playoffs. Currently there are two in the Eastern Conference: LeBron James and Dwight Howard.

Dwight Howard has proved to be the counter to LeBron. If you have a dominant threatening force inside who can meet force with force then half of LeBron's game goes away, he's reduced to a jumpshooter. Still great, but solveable with long athletic defenders who can stick the perimeter.

But it's looking like there's no great counter to Dwight right now. Few players can match his size and strength and athleticism. We've seen in the past that on a good day Brendan matches up with him as well as anybody in the East. I suspect that contending teams will be looking to add that quality: strong defensive pivot player. And in this free agent class Brendan looks like the better deal than most on that front. If he plays well this year those four games (plus playoffs) he can pretty much write his own ticket. Teams like Miami are that one player away from contention. And DC, being capped out, is vulnerable to the tactic of a pre-emptive cap-crushing deal. We can offer a longer deal, but teams know our cap situation as well as their own. And if McGee is developing at all, maybe they give themselves an excuse not to match and exceed other offers.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#63 » by Kanyewest » Mon Jul 6, 2009 3:01 am

Dwight Howard wasn't the only counter to LeBron James who still averaged 38.5 ppg in that series. Orlando's offense had a lot to do with it. Cleveland held Atlanta and Detroit each under 80 ppg while Orlando high octane offense managed to average over 100 ppg in their series against the Cavs.

Yes, Miami needs a big man. But they also need more guys who can take the scoring burden off of Dwayne Wade. Some of this could be alleviated if Michael Beasley develops into a better scorer although he's still very young; if he was in college, he would be a junior.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#64 » by doclinkin » Mon Jul 6, 2009 5:59 am

Kanyewest wrote:Dwight Howard wasn't the only counter to LeBron James who still averaged 38.5 ppg in that series. Orlando's offense had a lot to do with it. Cleveland held Atlanta and Detroit each under 80 ppg while Orlando high octane offense managed to average over 100 ppg in their series against the Cavs.


Because the Cavs had to double down on Dwight which left the Orlando tall shooters open outside, covered by wee lil' Mo Willems. Knuffle Bunny. Or Strawberry Shortcake Delonte West.

LeBron scored well in Orlando because the refs were killing Dwight with silly fouls. Kid averages 3 and a half fouls per game, but they foul him out of half of the games in the Cavs series, and plink him for 5 fouls in two of the other three games. Shameful.

LeBron scored the majority of his interior points when Dwight was offcourt. That's just a fact. Yes he gets pREFerential treatment, but I'm not sure they'd call the series like that the second time around. It was kinda embarrassing for the casual NBA fan. Look there's a reason the Cavs ran to recruit Shaq following their bounce-out. They need an big brother to protect LeBron.

Dwight is just a baby, Orlando is less of a threat without clutch Turkoglu, but still the big kid will tend to cause havoc for as long as he's healthy. Teams that lack solid frontcourt muscle & size project to be also-rans unless they have a gameplan for the dominant forces in the conference. In the case of both LeBron and Dwight some part of the answer is biggitude and force.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#65 » by Dat2U » Mon Jul 6, 2009 6:54 am

If Yao's longterm outlook is as bad as reports say it is, one team that I can definitely see getting into the mix for Haywood is Houston. Houston's nerd GM and their front office collective live and breathe the stats matrix. I'm sure Haywood would rate pretty high in their eyes.

Another team could be OKC who's GM is smart as a wipper snapper. He's also a stats guy as well. The biggest hole in OKC's lineup is a capable defender in the paint. Wood would do wonders in OKC's lineup and make them a legit playoff contender. They also should have plenty of cap room to make a play in FA.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#66 » by Kanyewest » Mon Jul 6, 2009 7:11 am

doclinkin wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:Dwight Howard wasn't the only counter to LeBron James who still averaged 38.5 ppg in that series. Orlando's offense had a lot to do with it. Cleveland held Atlanta and Detroit each under 80 ppg while Orlando high octane offense managed to average over 100 ppg in their series against the Cavs.


Because the Cavs had to double down on Dwight which left the Orlando tall shooters open outside, covered by wee lil' Mo Willems. Knuffle Bunny. Or Strawberry Shortcake Delonte West.

LeBron scored well in Orlando because the refs were killing Dwight with silly fouls. Kid averages 3 and a half fouls per game, but they foul him out of half of the games in the Cavs series, and plink him for 5 fouls in two of the other three games. Shameful.

LeBron scored the majority of his interior points when Dwight was offcourt. That's just a fact. Yes he gets pREFerential treatment, but I'm not sure they'd call the series like that the second time around. It was kinda embarrassing for the casual NBA fan. Look there's a reason the Cavs ran to recruit Shaq following their bounce-out. They need an big brother to protect LeBron.

Dwight is just a baby, Orlando is less of a threat without clutch Turkoglu, but still the big kid will tend to cause havoc for as long as he's healthy. Teams that lack solid frontcourt muscle & size project to be also-rans unless they have a gameplan for the dominant forces in the conference. In the case of both LeBron and Dwight some part of the answer is biggitude and force.


I agree that Dwight Howard was important in Orlando's success. But his ability to change shots and play solid defense on his man wasn't the only thing he brought to the table. As you mentioned, he commands a double team when he's on offense and he's a great better rebounder, both on the offensive and defensive end.

Now back to Brendan Haywood, he brings solid defense to the table that forces players to change their shots. However, he hasn't shown the ability to gather rebounds like Dwight Howard nor is he an offensive threat like Howard.

What's important in slowing down the Cavs is taking away their offensive rebounding advantage. Dwight Howard was able to negate that advantage. KG and Kendrick Perkins with the Boston Celtics also controlled the boards in their playoff matchup against the Cavs.

Now simply changing shots against LeBron doesn't work. If there's even a little bit of contact, LeBron will get the benefit of the doubt from the officials, who are probably thinking "How could LeBron have missed that layup; he's the freaking king!" Now someone like Dwight Howard would get away with a call every now and then because he's a superstar; someone like Brendan Haywood would get thrown out of the way for nudging LeBron the wrong way; or if LeBron pulled out his crybaby face.

BTW, the reason LeBron's numbers were so high is because they didn't double him and had single coverage most of the time. The Magic had 3 guys that they had to throw on LeBron; (Turkoglu, Lee, and Pietrus). Now they only have 2; (Carter and Pietrus). I think the Shaq addition is important for the Cavs since he'll make Howard work on the offensive end. He'll also get a ton of easy points when Howard is in foul trouble. The more I think about it, Orlando will be the underdog again if they play the Cavs.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#67 » by hands11 » Mon Jul 6, 2009 8:26 am

1977Odualum wrote:Have no idea who (or what) Wiznasty is. My only point that I was making is that if the top three players take half the team salary then what kind of talent do you expect for the rest of them. We need a top notch Center (that actually plays defense) and we (the Wiz) don't have the money to get one. Maybe Arenas, Butler and Jamison can tell us why we don't have the money.



I wouldn't be pointing the finger at CB but yeah, Gil and AJ are doing to bust the bank.

But keep in mind you have 6M tied up in James who we don't need and 3M in DS.

There is your 9M.

Our 3 top paid players are actually cheap compared to that Boston is doing. Granted they aren
KG, PP, and RA.

But personally, I can't wait till Haywood gets the court and reshuts up the non believers. Give us a solid back up center so we don't have to count on Blatche playing out of position of McGee being so raw and I think this team is good to go.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#68 » by Hoopalotta » Wed Jul 8, 2009 3:09 am

The new phone books are here, the new phone books are here!

http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archi ... 10_season/
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#69 » by XsamhainX_999 » Wed Jul 8, 2009 12:57 pm

Hoopalotta wrote:The new phone books are here, the new phone books are here!

http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archi ... 10_season/


Harry: Boy, I wish I could get that excited about nothing.

Navin: Nothing? Are you kidding? Page 73 - Johnson, Navin R.! I'm somebody now! Millions of people look at this book everyday! This is the kind of spontaneous publicity - your name in print - that makes people. I'm in print! Things are going to start happening to me now.

[the Sniper points to Navin's name in the phone book]

Sniper: Johnson, Navin R... sounds like a typical b*****d.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#70 » by Severn Hoos » Wed Jul 8, 2009 1:05 pm

He hates these cans. Stay away from the cans!


Die, gas pumper!


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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#71 » by nate33 » Wed Jul 8, 2009 6:18 pm

Wow, the Miller/Foye trade just became either briliant, or a complete dud, depending on your perspective:

2010/11 Salary Cap to drop to $50-53M
The luxtax threshold will probably fall to about $62M. This basically eliminates any possibility of retaining all three of Foye, Miller and Haywood next season. If we retain only Haywood at a cost of $8M, our payroll will be $65M. I figure we'll probably have a good shot at retaining Foye only because we have RFA rights and can match offers. With a stated willingness to match, other teams may not bother to tender an offer, allowing us to retain him for the Qualifying Offer of $4.8M and forcing us to pay a substantial but not backbreaking luxtax of $8M.

Say goodbye to Mike Miller though. One can argue that Miller's impending departure renders the original trade a bad one, but don't overlook the fact that we dumped DSong. If we still had DSong and the 5th pick on the roster next year, our payroll (before resigning Haywood) would be in the neighborhood of $66M ($4M over the luxtax) and Abe would be tempted to let Haywood walk.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#72 » by Severn Hoos » Wed Jul 8, 2009 6:36 pm

nate33 wrote:Wow, the Miller/Foye trade just became either briliant, or a complete dud, depending on your perspective:

2010/11 Salary Cap to drop to $50-53M
The luxtax threshold will probably fall to about $62M. This basically eliminates any possibility of retaining all three of Foye, Miller and Haywood next season. If we retain only Haywood at a cost of $8M, our payroll will be $65M. I figure we'll probably have a good shot at retaining Foye only because we have RFA rights and can match offers. With a stated willingness to match, other teams may not bother to tender an offer, allowing us to retain him for the Qualifying Offer of $4.8M and forcing us to pay a substantial but not backbreaking luxtax of $8M.

Say goodbye to Mike Miller though. One can argue that Miller's impending departure renders the original trade a bad one, but don't overlook the fact that we dumped DSong. If we still had DSong and the 5th pick on the roster next year, our payroll (before resigning Haywood) would be in the neighborhood of $66M ($4M over the luxtax) and Abe would be tempted to let Haywood walk.


Thanks, nate - though that really is a bummer.

On the other hand, it is important to keep in mind total outlay and what Abe would/will be willing to spend. For this year, with a (likely) $76-77M payroll and a $70M tax threshold, the Wiz' outlay will be somewhere around $82-84M. If (and I realize it's a HUGE if) we were to keep the same outlay, it would mean a payroll of $72-73M (with another $10-11M tax). Again, IF that's the case, then Haywood & Foye would not be a problem. And just maybe - if they move Stevenson & Young (and maybe Crittenton) before the deadline for expirings - they could still re-sign Miller also and stay around $80-84 total expenditures. [Yes, this is wildly optimistic, but not utterly inconceivable if the team looks like it can really make some noise this year.]

I agree - not likely, and it may be a painful summer next year - but I'm firmly committed to the optimists' camp, and I'm staying there til the bitter end.

And also one more reason to extend Haywood now. If I recall, there's a cap to how much a team can raise the last year salary for a player in an extension? (Larry Coon says 10.5%) So that means that Ernie can go to Haywood right now and say, "Brendan, we want you here long term and are prepared to give you financial security right now. I'll offer you the maximum amount I can extend your contract for the next 5 years if you sign this summer."

That would mean a 5 year deal starting at $6.7M, for a total of 5 yrs/$41M (check my math?). I think it's entirely possible he accepts it - and what's better, he can't be "offended" because Ernie offered the absolute max he could right now. Am I missing something there?
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#73 » by nate33 » Wed Jul 8, 2009 6:56 pm

One other tangent to this conversation - directed at all of you who consider Abe to be cheap.

Teams that pay the luxtax miss out on the redistribution payment. This year, there will be more teams over the luxtax, and next year, even more teams will be over. Instead of the usual $3M redistribution, the redistribution will probably be in the neighborhood of $5-6M over each of the next 2 season.

Let's assume EG had a basic idea of the 2010/11 luxtax threshold prior to the draft. Let's also assume that we could have traded the #5 as a means of dumping DS^2 for raw cap space (via Portland or perhaps Dallas involving Stackhouse unguaranteed contract).

Had EG done so, we would have had a payroll of $72.5M this year, and $63M (after resiging Haywood to a $7M deal). Our total costs, counting luxtax and redistribution over the next two years would have been something like $137M. But by making the trade, our payroll is $76M and $70M over the next two years (assuming Haywood and Foye are resigned somewhat cheaply, and Miller is cut). That means our total costs are $170M (about $184M if we retain Miller). Ultimately, Abe could have saved between $33 and 47M by doing the cheap thing on draft day.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#74 » by TheSecretWeapon » Wed Jul 8, 2009 6:58 pm

Sev: The extension you're talking about would start at $6.63 million. A 5-year deal would total $40.11 million -- a hair over $8 million per season. Haywood might do it.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#75 » by Rafael122 » Wed Jul 8, 2009 9:22 pm

Haywood looks like a guy who has saved his money. I think he's hinted at that in the past. 5 yrs/$40 million is a good deal, especially since he's what...31?
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#76 » by spaceman_E » Wed Jul 8, 2009 10:55 pm

Thanks Mr. Stern for lowering the salary cap almost 20% a year after we re-sign our guys to long term deals.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#77 » by Dat2U » Wed Jul 8, 2009 11:34 pm

nate33 wrote:One other tangent to this conversation - directed at all of you who consider Abe to be cheap.

Teams that pay the luxtax miss out on the redistribution payment. This year, there will be more teams over the luxtax, and next year, even more teams will be over. Instead of the usual $3M redistribution, the redistribution will probably be in the neighborhood of $5-6M over each of the next 2 season.

Let's assume EG had a basic idea of the 2010/11 luxtax threshold prior to the draft. Let's also assume that we could have traded the #5 as a means of dumping DS^2 for raw cap space (via Portland or perhaps Dallas involving Stackhouse unguaranteed contract).

Had EG done so, we would have had a payroll of $72.5M this year, and $63M (after resiging Haywood to a $7M deal). Our total costs, counting luxtax and redistribution over the next two years would have been something like $137M. But by making the trade, our payroll is $76M and $70M over the next two years (assuming Haywood and Foye are resigned somewhat cheaply, and Miller is cut). That means our total costs are $170M (about $184M if we retain Miller). Ultimately, Abe could have saved between $33 and 47M by doing the cheap thing on draft day.


I have never accused Abe of being cheap. And if Abe was the one who wanted to sell the 2nd rounder for $2.5 million to put towards future luxury tax payments, I completely understand.

My problem is with EG putting us in this position in the first place. Contrary to CCJ's diatribe against the Arenas re-signing, I'd like to point to all the other moves EG has made where he totally ignored the long term financial implications. Songaila, AD, DeShawn for example. I understand the argument Sev made about needing to overpay to get a guy like AD but honestly they weren't worth the cost. The only time I'd say its worth overpaying to keep or acquire a role player is when the team has actual championship aspirations. Giving AD those extra years wasn't getting us out of the first round. And not giving DeShawn $20 million wasn't going to turn us from a 43 game winner into a 33 game winner.

Secondly, EG has traded the 5th pick on two occassions. I understand the desire to acquire a veteran and not have to wait for a young player to develop. But odds are, if you have a top 5 pick, your getting a solid NBA contributor. And one that has the added benefit of being paid on a rookie wage scale. So when EG trades for a veteran making $14 mil a year, or trades for two guys entering their contract years, not only does he forgo adding a relatively inexpensive contributor to the roster, he potentially explodes the cap by adding one or two pieces that cost significantly more.

I find it hard to believe that in one year Miller & Foye could potentially demand 12-15 million per year combined, when we could have easily had a talented guy on the rookie scale at around $4 mil per. Even if you add in Songaila's salary for one year, its still less than $9 mil combined.

To me that's poor financial mangement. Passing up the opportunity to use the 32nd pick to cheapily fill a roster spot also seems short sighted IMO as well. $2.5 million is nothing to sneeze at but its not like we were trading a mid or late 2nd rounder. The 32nd pick is often has more value then late 1st round picks b/c regardless of what draft it is, there's 1st round talent that slips to the 2nd round and can be had at a rookie minimum price. But we were forced into the position of selling off assets b/c of EG's inability to reign in spending.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#78 » by Hoopalotta » Thu Jul 9, 2009 1:08 am

nate33 wrote:Wow, the Miller/Foye trade just became either briliant, or a complete dud, depending on your perspective:

2010/11 Salary Cap to drop to $50-53M
The luxtax threshold will probably fall to about $62M. This basically eliminates any possibility of retaining all three of Foye, Miller and Haywood next season. If we retain only Haywood at a cost of $8M, our payroll will be $65M. I figure we'll probably have a good shot at retaining Foye only because we have RFA rights and can match offers. With a stated willingness to match, other teams may not bother to tender an offer, allowing us to retain him for the Qualifying Offer of $4.8M and forcing us to pay a substantial but not backbreaking luxtax of $8M.

Say goodbye to Mike Miller though. One can argue that Miller's impending departure renders the original trade a bad one, but don't overlook the fact that we dumped DSong. If we still had DSong and the 5th pick on the roster next year, our payroll (before resigning Haywood) would be in the neighborhood of $66M ($4M over the luxtax) and Abe would be tempted to let Haywood walk.


That is quite frightening. When I saw the Luxury tax this year was at nearly $70 million, i figured that was pretty dandy, but a 'woe to thee' drop next year would smart mightily.

I had figured there was a good chance that we would be losing Miller though already. What I am taking out of this for our own little corner of the NBA Landscape is that, even in Nick Young stinks it up next year, we need to keep him for that fourth year of his rookie deal. He could potentially fill in the void thereafter as our spot-starter or something.

You hear that everybody? No more Nick Young trade proposals!

:wink:
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#79 » by Hoopalotta » Thu Jul 9, 2009 1:52 am

A Hypothetical point on Mike Miller and 2011:

Suppose that this year Blatche becomes consistent, but McGee is not quite in the regular 'healthy' rotation. But we expect that in 2011 McGee will take the step to become the full time backup center.

At that point we are well prepped to lose Miller as Andray can play his minutes at the 4. And remember his PER numbers there for 2008 were OK, so we shouldn't draw too much into 2009 numbers telling us that he can only play center.

So, with no Blatche in the paint, Jamison would be getting bumped to play maybe ten minutes a game at the three making Miller redundant in the front court.

Under this scenario, which is plausible, the question would be about the back court and who is the third guard, be they a starter or playing behind Foye.

But all told, with the internal development just mentioned, we could potentially lose Miller without too many tears staining our pillows.
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Re: Washington Wizards Salary Cap 

Post#80 » by LyricalRico » Mon Jul 13, 2009 7:12 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:Sev: The extension you're talking about would start at $6.63 million. A 5-year deal would total $40.11 million -- a hair over $8 million per season. Haywood might do it.


I agree. That's a pretty good deal, considering. It's essentially extending his current deal but with bigger annual raises. I feel pretty good about us being able to re-sign him to something in that neighborhood.

I'm also not ready to give up on Miller coming back. We know that salaries are probably going down, so that's in our favor. And if he really does help this team, he's going to be taking minutes from Stevenson and Young, possibly McGuire as well. Packaging DeBrick+Young+pick on draft night to a team with cap space would give us more than enough to re-up Miller IMO. We also have the option of letting McGuire walk.

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