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Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#621 » by sfam » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:16 pm

fugop wrote:How is Bennett's "elite athleticism" different from Jeff Adrien's "elite athleticism?" I doubt that Bennett is as good an athlete as Trevor Booker, albeit more skilled. I think his best case scenario is Corliss Williamson, or maybe Glenn Robinson.

Adrien wasn't even drafted, was he? Are we honestly going to compare Bennett to marginal NBA players? Are you stating that he doesn't deserve to be drafted? And again, I think LJ on offense is the best case.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#622 » by Dark Faze » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:17 pm

No to Oladipo. We can't afford to worry about bench depth right now when we have so many other needs.

I'd love him if Ariza and Webster were both 23 and really healthy so we could have a tandem of Ariza/Oladipo off the bench for the next 8 years, but chances are we're going to have bigger holes to fill that don't afford us the option to go for bench depth.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#623 » by AFM » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:29 pm

tontoz wrote:Dipo's standing reach is an inch shorter than Wall's. I don't see him playing the 3.

This is my concern. How can we have a starting 5 with 3 guys with average SG size?
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#624 » by sfam » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:31 pm

AFM wrote:
tontoz wrote:Dipo's standing reach is an inch shorter than Wall's. I don't see him playing the 3.

This is my concern. How can we have a starting 5 with 3 guys with average SG size?
If he can't play some SF, than why would we take him?
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#625 » by nate33 » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:35 pm

fugop wrote:I doubt that Bennett is as good an athlete as Trevor Booker, albeit more skilled.

In terms of run/jump athleticism, few players on record who are as athletic as Booker.

There are only 4 players who weigh 230 or more with a lane agility faster and a no step vertical higher than Booker: Jason Smith, Miles Plumlee, Brandon Hunter and Blake Griffin.

There is no player in the DX database weighing 230 or more with a full court sprint faster than Booker.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#626 » by Nivek » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:40 pm

Oladipo is a test of my adherence to the best player available philosophy. I think he's the best prospect in the draft. But he doesn't fit an immediate or pending need. The Wizards need help in the front court right away. They're going to need a SF in the next year or two. They need a third guard and/or a backup PG.

They really don't need a SG, unless they have a pure PG as their backup PG. In which case, they could use a "pure" SG to backup Beal. BUT, that's likely to be 12-14 minutes per game, which wouldn't be much playing time for a third overall pick in the draft, or a guy with the ability Oladipo possesses. Which means you're then kind of forced to play 3-guard lineups to get both Beal and Oladipo playing time, which isn't ideal because somebody has to play out of position and against an opponent with a significant size advantage.

Much as I like Oladipo, I don't think he's "the guy" for the Wizards. To me, the next best prospect is Zeller, but apparently almost no one else seems to think that. I'd try to trade the 3 for a pick in the range where I could get Zeller plus something else useful. Or pick Zeller at 3. Or pick Porter, if he's still there. I'm glad there's still some time to the draft. :)
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#627 » by DCZards » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:43 pm

Zards don't need to draft a backup SG...at least not with the #3 pick. And that's what Olapido will end up being because neither he nor Beal are big enough to log a lot of minutes at SF.

Why does it seem like most of the posters who don't want Bennett focus solely on his lack of D and totally ignore his diverse and impressive offensive skills? My biggest worries with Bennett is his health (asthma and shoulder) and not his size. I think he'll create more matchup problems for bigger PFs and smaller SFs than they'll create for him.

As for Bennett's D, yes lack of effort is a very serious problem. But what if a coach or teammates can light a fire under his butt and he begins to use his length and athleticism, along with close to max effort on D, to become a better defender? If that happens, I think the kid has all-star potential. I know that's a big "if" but it might be a risk worth taking...if Noel and Porter are no longer available when the Zards draft.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#628 » by WizarDynasty » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:50 pm

nate33 wrote:
fugop wrote:I doubt that Bennett is as good an athlete as Trevor Booker, albeit more skilled.

In terms of run/jump athleticism, few players on record who are as athletic as Booker.

There are only 4 players who weigh 230 or more with a lane agility faster and a no step vertical higher than Booker: Jason Smith, Miles Plumlee, Brandon Hunter and Blake Griffin.

There is no player in the DX database weighing 230 or more with a full court sprint faster than Booker.


Booker isn't wizard material because he has below average body control with the basketball and he never demonstrated consistent ability to finish with a defender between him and the ball.
Booker is a football player pretending to be a basketball player because of his height.

same issue with Vesely. He is a soccer player pretending to be a basketball player because of his height which is the reason he air balls free throws and can't dribble and chew gum at the same time but he can't run in straight line like a gazelle because of soccer.
reason why Len can't bang inside, he is a gymnast doing flips and floor routines, he didnt' train his ankles to absorb huge amounts of force from pushing and shoving gigantic human refrigerators on a night to night basis like a Bennett or an Adams.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#629 » by fugop » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:51 pm

nate33 wrote:
fugop wrote:I doubt that Bennett is as good an athlete as Trevor Booker, albeit more skilled.

In terms of run/jump athleticism, few players on record who are as athletic as Booker.

There are only 4 players who weigh 230 or more with a lane agility faster and a no step vertical higher than Booker: Jason Smith, Miles Plumlee, Brandon Hunter and Blake Griffin.

There is no player in the DX database weighing 230 or more with a full court sprint faster than Booker.


Jeff Adrien

Height: 6'6.5"
Wingspan: 7'2"
Reach: 8'11.5"
Weight: 236
No Step: 27.5"
Max Vert: 31.5"
Bench: 16
Lane Agility: 11.34
3/4 Court Sprint: 3.32

Trevor Booker

Height: 6'7.5"
Wingspan: 6'9.75"
Reach: 8'10"
Weight: 236
No Step: 31.0"
Max Vert: 36.0"
Bench: 22
Lane Agility: 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: 3.10

Anthony Bennett

Height: 6'7"
Wingspan: 7'1"
Reach: 8'9"
Weight: 238
No Step: ?
Max Vert: ?
Bench: ?
Lane Agility: ?
3/4 Court Sprint: ?

Athletically, it's extremely unlikely that Bennett is better than either Adrien or Booker. Those are generous comparisons, not insulting. You can fairly claim that Bennett is more skilled than either of those guys, but you can't rest his potential on unprecedented athleticism.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#630 » by pancakes3 » Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:52 pm

AFM wrote:For the Oladipo supporters, how do you guys think he will fit in to the line up? 6th man off the bench?


Before the measurements came out, I was hoping for an Igoudala-type player but his reach and his height are so low, I don't think he can do much to stop SF's.

DCZards wrote:As for Bennett's D, yes lack of effort is a very serious problem. But what if a coach or teammates can light a fire under his butt and he begins to use his length and athleticism, along with close to max effort on D, to become a better defender? If that happens, I think the kid has all-star potential. I know that's a big "if" but it might be a risk worth taking...if Noel and Porter are no longer available when the Zards draft.


I don't think defense has much to do with length or athleticism but rather mindset and iq. Knowing the defensive angles, tendencies, assignments, timing, etc. are all much more important than reach. The standing reach should make decisions at the margins but if a guy has shown little-to-no aptitude for defense I wouldn't expect that to change at all just the same as if someone who's shown no interest in scoring would have a fire lit under him to play better offense in the pro's.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#631 » by WizarDynasty » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:01 pm

pancakes3 wrote:
AFM wrote:For the Oladipo supporters, how do you guys think he will fit in to the line up? 6th man off the bench?


Before the measurements came out, I was hoping for an Igoudala-type player but his reach and his height are so low, I don't think he can do much to stop SF's.

DCZards wrote:As for Bennett's D, yes lack of effort is a very serious problem. But what if a coach or teammates can light a fire under his butt and he begins to use his length and athleticism, along with close to max effort on D, to become a better defender? If that happens, I think the kid has all-star potential. I know that's a big "if" but it might be a risk worth taking...if Noel and Porter are no longer available when the Zards draft.


I don't think defense has much to do with length or athleticism but rather mindset and iq. Knowing the defensive angles, tendencies, assignments, timing, etc. are all much more important than reach. The standing reach should make decisions at the margins but if a guy has shown little-to-no aptitude for defense I wouldn't expect that to change at all just the same as if someone who's shown no interest in scoring would have a fire lit under him to play better offense in the pro's.

if you wanna evaluate bennett defensive potential, look at his footspeed and his ability to change directions when his knees are bent. Everything else can be coached. McGee was an absolute zero as far as footspeed and the ability to change directions laterally. Those are attributes that you can't coach. Jamison was a horrible c defender as he got older because he couldn't change directions and he couldn't bend his knees for leverage on defense.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#632 » by Nivek » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:03 pm

I would need to be convinced that picking a guy who needs to be motivated to play hard on defense is a good strategy for assembling a team. I like Bennett as a prospect, but the defensive effort issue does concern me. I'm trying to think of prospects with iffy motivation who got selected high and then turned out to be terrific pros. No one jumps to mind, but I'm probably just blanking on it.

All that said, I'm also not entirely convinced that the defensive effort issue isn't being exaggerated with Bennett. Even if it isn't, he's a guy I'd be willing to pick -- but not at 3.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#633 » by DCZards » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:03 pm

pancakes3 wrote:
DCZards wrote:As for Bennett's D, yes lack of effort is a very serious problem. But what if a coach or teammates can light a fire under his butt and he begins to use his length and athleticism, along with close to max effort on D, to become a better defender? If that happens, I think the kid has all-star potential. I know that's a big "if" but it might be a risk worth taking...if Noel and Porter are no longer available when the Zards draft.


I don't think defense has much to do with length or athleticism but rather mindset and iq. Knowing the defensive angles, tendencies, assignments, timing, etc. are all much more important than reach. The standing reach should make decisions at the margins but if a guy has shown little-to-no aptitude for defense I wouldn't expect that to change at all just the same as if someone who's shown no interest in scoring would have a fire lit under him to play better offense in the pro's.


Big diff between offense and D skillsets as you sorta point out yourself with the description of what makes a good defender. So the light a fire analogy doesn't work.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#634 » by AFM » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:05 pm

Nivek wrote:I would need to be convinced that picking a guy who needs to be motivated to play hard on defense is a good strategy for assembling a team. I like Bennett as a prospect, but the defensive effort issue does concern me. I'm trying to think of prospects with iffy motivation who got selected high and then turned out to be terrific pros. No one jumps to mind, but I'm probably just blanking on it.

All that said, I'm also not entirely convinced that the defensive effort issue isn't being exaggerated with Bennett. Even if it isn't, he's a guy I'd be willing to pick -- but not at 3.

Iffy defensive effort? How about Melo
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#635 » by fugop » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:06 pm

DCZards wrote:Zards don't need to draft a backup SG...at least not with the #3 pick. And that's what Olapido will end up being because neither he nor Beal are big enough to log a lot of minutes at SF.

Why does it seem like most of the posters who don't want Bennett focus solely on his lack of D and totally ignore his diverse and impressive offensive skills? My biggest worries with Bennett is his health (asthma and shoulder) and not his size. I think he'll create more matchup problems for bigger PFs and smaller SFs than they'll create for him.

As for Bennett's D, yes lack of effort is a very serious problem. But what if a coach or teammates can light a fire under his butt and he begins to use his length and athleticism, along with close to max effort on D, to become a better defender? If that happens, I think the kid has all-star potential. I know that's a big "if" but it might be a risk worth taking...if Noel and Porter are no longer available when the Zards draft.


You just can't compete in the playoffs with a big who is a disinterested defender. We need length at the 4 and 5. I'd rather have Withey, Dieng, Adams, Plumlee, or Gobert than Bennett. Rules and cultural changes have increased the importance of smalls on offense, and bigs on defense. Draft accordingly.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#636 » by tontoz » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:13 pm

WizarDynasty wrote:Booker isn't wizard material because he has below average body control with the basketball and he never demonstrated consistent ability to finish with a defender between him and the ball.



I don't think anyone in the NBA can dribble, let alone finish, with a defender between them and the ball.

Len can't bang inside, he is a gymnast doing flips and floor routines, he didnt' train his ankles to absorb huge amounts of force from pushing and shoving gigantic human refrigerators on a night to night basis like a Bennett or an Adams


:lol:
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#637 » by Dat2U » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:23 pm

Nivek wrote:Oladipo is a test of my adherence to the best player available philosophy. I think he's the best prospect in the draft. But he doesn't fit an immediate or pending need. The Wizards need help in the front court right away. They're going to need a SF in the next year or two. They need a third guard and/or a backup PG.

They really don't need a SG, unless they have a pure PG as their backup PG. In which case, they could use a "pure" SG to backup Beal. BUT, that's likely to be 12-14 minutes per game, which wouldn't be much playing time for a third overall pick in the draft, or a guy with the ability Oladipo possesses. Which means you're then kind of forced to play 3-guard lineups to get both Beal and Oladipo playing time, which isn't ideal because somebody has to play out of position and against an opponent with a significant size advantage.

Much as I like Oladipo, I don't think he's "the guy" for the Wizards. To me, the next best prospect is Zeller, but apparently almost no one else seems to think that. I'd try to trade the 3 for a pick in the range where I could get Zeller plus something else useful. Or pick Zeller at 3. Or pick Porter, if he's still there. I'm glad there's still some time to the draft. :)


Drafting for need is a risky game. There's endless examples where it's blown up in a GM's face.

My top tier has 3 players on it. Noel, Porter & Oladipo. I think it would be a mistake to select anyone than those 3 with our 3rd pick. My next tier has Olynyk, Zeller & Len on it... and I wouldn't feel comfortable taking any of those guys so high.

Regarding trading down, I've never been a fan of it in the NBA draft because of course the lower you draft, the lower your odds of finding a quality player. I know folks can make a list of all the great draft steals as a part of their revisionist history, but you won't find many examples where teams actually where able to execute this strategy effectively. Maybe Boston with the McHale/Parish trade but that was 30+ years ago with the great Red Auerbach pulling the trigger.

So I wouldn't trade down, just to trade down. The offer would have to be substantial enough to make it worth my while. A 2014 unprotected 1st, a quality player... I'm NOT trading down for Austin Rivers, some late 1st or Luke Ridnour. If the offers aren't there, so be it, I'd be happy with Oladipo for now. It doesn't mean Oladipo has to be a Wizard for life, but get the best asset and worry about fit later. A championship isn't being won next year. Playing small ball while the roster sorts itself out doesn't seem like a huge issue to me. But missing out on the best talent in the draft because it wasn't a perfect or seamless fit would be potentially regrettable.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#638 » by GhostsOfGil » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:28 pm

Kev what do you think about this article?
Do your YODA rankings back this claim? Is there any truth to this statement?

http://www.canishoopus.com/2013/6/17/44 ... teams-pick

Fans always attend to blocks when evaluating centers, but for understandable reasons ignore steals. This is a mistake. The correlation between college steal rate and NBA success for bigs is actually considerably stronger than it is for block rate (beta=0.24 vs 0.14). Steals themselves may not be an important part of the big man repertoire, but they offer information about athleticism, coordination, and awareness that makes them an essential assessment tool.

Keeping this in mind, Nerlens Noel ranks 6th all time in NCAA steal rate for big men. Just behind Greg Monroe and just ahead of David Robinson. Not only that, but he is also a top 25 all time rim protector. Noel's 5.4 blocks and 2.5 steals per 40 minutes place him in the exclusive "5 and 2 club". Here is the complete list of seasons where a player registered at least 5 blocks and 2 steals per 40 minutes played: Hakeem Olajuwon '83, David Robinson '86, Nerlens Noel '13, David Robinson '87, Hakeem Olajuwon '82. Not bad company.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#639 » by Dat2U » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:31 pm

DCZards wrote:Zards don't need to draft a backup SG...at least not with the #3 pick. And that's what Olapido will end up being because neither he nor Beal are big enough to log a lot of minutes at SF.

Why does it seem like most of the posters who don't want Bennett focus solely on his lack of D and totally ignore his diverse and impressive offensive skills? My biggest worries with Bennett is his health (asthma and shoulder) and not his size. I think he'll create more matchup problems for bigger PFs and smaller SFs than they'll create for him.

As for Bennett's D, yes lack of effort is a very serious problem. But what if a coach or teammates can light a fire under his butt and he begins to use his length and athleticism, along with close to max effort on D, to become a better defender? If that happens, I think the kid has all-star potential. I know that's a big "if" but it might be a risk worth taking...if Noel and Porter are no longer available when the Zards draft.


How many of those guys can you actually win with?

What all-star quality player consistently needs a fire lit under his butt???

Haven't we had enough of these type of guys under Ernie?

Even if he's some offensive beast, look what half a decade of Antawn Jamison got us. One playoff series win and four 1st round exits.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII 

Post#640 » by Higga » Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:39 pm

Len going #1-1... :lol: :lol: :lol:

In all seriousness, I actually think he could be a pretty good NBA player. But it's gonna take a few years, and it would never happen here with both our history of bad player development and the local factor(UMD fans would put too much pressure on him).

Who do we take at 3 if Noel is there? Honestly, he scares me. And I'm reading that he's been blowing off meetings. Seems kinda prima donna-y for a guy who even when healthy wasn't necessarily dominant(certainly was no Anthony Davis). I think I might still take Porter and be happy with a solid quality player who will make the occasional All-Star game.
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